Labour Market Segmentation in Poland. Artur Gajdos Department of Spatial Econometrics University of Lodz

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2 Labour Market Segmentation in Poland Artur Gajdos Department of Spatial Econometrics University of Lodz Lisbon, 24 November 2016

3 Agenda Introduction Labour market facts Policy reforms implemented Conclusions

4 Introduction Global trends technology developments, changes in supply for goods and services, society ageing, skills mismatch, polarization, segmentation.

5 Methodology LFS data ( ) yearly data ISCED, ISCO-08, NACE rev.2, NUTS2, age groups (15-64), sex Poland and EU28 Employment Temporary Employees Permanent Employees

6 Employment dynamics in EU28 and Poland in years (2002=100%) 120% 115% 110% 105% 117% 106% 100% 95% 90% EU28 Poland

7 Population by labour status in Poland (1000) Inactive persons Unemployed persons Employed persons Inactive persons: 31,9% - Poland (27,5% - EU28)

8 Employment by professional status in Poland (1000) Contributing family workers Self-employed persons Employees

9 Employment and unemployment in Poland (1000) Employed persons Unemployed persons

10 Activity rates (%) 75 72, ,6 70,3 68, ,9 63, EU28 Poland ,2 28,2 75,7 69,9 87,6 88, ,3 74,8 66,8 61,4 0 low medium high EU28 Poland 0 Males EU28 Poland Females

11 Employment rates (%) ,3 65,7 65,6 59,2 62, , EU28 Poland Unemployment rates (%) , ,1 9,6 7,2 7, EU28 Poland

12 Employment by educational attainment level in Poland (1000) ISCED 0-2 (low) ISCED 3-4 (medium) ISCED 5-8 (high)

13 Employment by educational attainment level in Poland (%) 100% 90% 80% 70% 15,7% 25,5% 33,0% high 60% 50% 40% 30% 71,8% 66,8% 61,3% medium 20% 10% 12,5% 0% 7,7% 5,6% low

14 Employment by sectors in Poland (1000) Agriculture Industry Construction Services

15 Employment by sectors in UE28 and Poland in 2015 (%) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 72% 58% Services 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 7% 17% 4% EU28 8% 23% 11% Poland Construction Industry Agriculture

16 Employment by major occupational groups in Poland (1000) Managers Professionals Technicians and associate professionals Clerical support workers Service and sales workers Skilled agricultural, forestry and fishery workers Craft and related trades workers Plant and machine operators and assemblers Elementary occupations

17 Total Managers Professionals Technicians and associate professionals Clerical support workers Service and sales workers Skilled agricultural, forestry and fishery workers Craft and related trades workers Plant and machine operators and assemblers Elementary occupations Employment dynamics ( ) by major occupational groups in EU28 and Poland (%) 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% EU28 Poland -40% -60%

18 Temporary employees as percentage of the total number of employees in EU28 and Poland (%) 30 28,2 28, ,4 12,4 14,6 14, EU28 Poland ,7 28,0 27, ,3 27,0 13,0 16,6 6, EU28 Poland ,8 14,5 Males Females EU28 Poland

19 Main reason for the temporary employment in EU28 and Poland in 2015 (%) ,6 64,7 Could not find permanent job 11,8 14,5 17,0 11,7 8,7 9,2 Did not want a In education or permanent job training EU28 Poland Probationary period Main reason for the temporary employment in Poland in 2006 and 2015 (%) ,9 64,7 Could not find permanent job 14,5 6,3 9,0 11,7 8,7 9,2 Did not want a permanent job In education or training Probationary period

20 Temporary and permanent employees in Poland by educational attainment level (%) low medium high total % 15% 11% 15% 74% 85% 89% 85% % 50% 31% 20% 28% 69% 80% 72%

21 Temporary and permanent employees in Poland by sectors in 2015 (%) Activities of households as employers; Administrative and support service activities Accommodation and food service activities Construction Agriculture, forestry and fishing Other service activities Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor Manufacturing Total Arts, entertainment and recreation Professional, scientific and technical activities Transportation and storage Information and communication Water supply; sewerage, waste management Financial and insurance activities Human health and social work activities Real estate activities Education Public administration and defence; Mining and quarrying Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning 28% 72% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Temporary employees Premanent employees

22 Temporary and permanent employees in Poland by major occupational groups in 2015 (%) Elementary occupations Service and sales workers Skilled agricultural, forestry and fishery workers Craft and related trades workers Clerical support workers Plant and machine operators and assemblers Armed forces occupations Total Technicians and associate professionals Professionals Managers 28% 72% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Temporary employees Permanent employees

23 Temporary employees in Poland by regions (NUTS2) in 2015 (%)

24 Monthly earnings in Poland (EU28=100%) 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 32% 38% 41% 0% Labour cost in Poland (EU28=100%) 36% 34% 32% 33,1% 33,5% 33,9% 34,4% 30%

25 Wages disparities by regions (NUTS2) in 2015 (Poland=100%)

26 Proportion of minimal and average wages in Poland (%) 50% 45% 40% 42% 45% 35% 30% 34% *

27 Diagnosis Segmentation of the labour market in Poland: - the share of temporary employees is highest among the EU countries, - the share of people passing from temporary employment to permanent employment is low, - salaries are low and wage inequalities are highest among EU countries.

28 The main reasons for the use of temporary contracts: - inflexible labour law, - high non-wage labour costs. The main effects: - low quality of the jobs offered, - high level of temporary jobs. Recommendation: temporary employment reduction

29 Reforms implemented: Labour law reform - minimum monthly wages (2000 PLN/month), - minimum hourly wages (12 PLN/hour), - add non-wages labour costs (compulsory social security contributions) to temporary contracts for reduction its attractiveness for employers. Other proposals (future) - one uniform contract (with the period of employment as a criterion for rights, privileges) General action Social campaigns about shadow economy ( black labour market) and labour laws, especially for young employees.

30 Low wages problem Replacement effect Immigrants (above all from Ukraine) in construction, manufacturing, trade, services effect (social benefit for parents) Moving to inactivity (women, clerks in public administration, saleswomen very low salaries). This processes could increase temporary employment and labour market segmentation.

31 Conclusions: economic background, employment changes, changes in structures, temporary employment, wages, reforms.

32 Thank you for your attention!