Alaska s Economic Climate

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "Alaska s Economic Climate"

Gyles Horton
5 years ago
Views:

1 Alaska s Economic Climate Alaska PTAC Statewide Procurement Conference April 2nd, 2015 Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Research Section, Neal Fried, Economist

3 Alaska--Boom, Bust and Moderation 350,000 Number of j obs in AK growth resumes in and record count begins again 300, , 21 years of growth ends in , full recovery -- record annual count begins for 19 years 200,000 oil revenue boom Alaska s Great Recession 150, * *preliminary

4 Slower Growth In AK Percent employment change from previous year-ak and U.S. AK U.S. 1.3% 1.7% 1.2% 1.5% 1.7% 1.7% 1.8% 0.5% 0.4% -0.7% * *preliminary

5 Part of the Exclusive Club Ranking State Median Household Income-2013 Anchorage* $76,495 1 Maryland $72,483 2 Alaska $72,237 3 New Jersey $70,165 4 Hawaii $68,020 5 Connecticut $67,098 U.S. 52,250 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS, *=2013

7 Some Current Economic Indicators To Contemplate Not everthing than can be counted counts, and not everything that counts can be counted. Albert Einstein

8 3500 Home Sales Were Up Everywhere But Anchorage In 2014 Single family home sales Anchorage MatSu Kenai P. Fairbanks S ource: A laska Department of Labor and W orkforce Development, Research and A nalysis S ection, A laska Housing Finance Corporation, MLS.

9 Federal Civilian Employment-Big Declines Federal Civ ilian Employment-AK 16,809 16,891 17,065 17,558 17,037 16,390 15,473 14,

10 Alaska s Military-Will It Take A Hit? Uniformed military-alaska 24,449 23,141 23,195 22,675 21,073 21,067 20,168 23,004 22,438 20,914 21, percent of Fairbanks Population10 percent of Anchorage s Population 18 percent of Kodiaks Population

11 During The Past Decade Prudhoe Bay Employment Counts Have More Than Doubled All workers in Prudhoe 11,196 10,417 10,485 10,565 10,848 10,967 12,146 9,069 7,781 5,997 6, * *based on first 2 quarters

12 Oil Industy Employment Keeps Hitting New Highs Number of oil and gas jobs 8,200 8,700 10,200 11,500 12,800 12,900 12,700 13,000 13,800 14,100 14,

13 Visitor Numbers Up For Third Year In A Row Full-year visitor volume 1,693,900 1,875,200 1,881,000 1,961,500 1,949,900 1,838,700 1,776,500 1,823,600 1,849,700 1,966,700 ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' Source: McDowell Group

14 Some Economic Forces That Will Influence what Could Happen In Alaska In 2015 and Beyond Natural Gas Prices Federal Dollars Oil Prices/Revenues Uncertainity Oil Industry Activity Wate r Pipeline Decent Com m odity Prices Tourism U.S. Econom y

17 The 1980 s and Now Similarities Oil prices fall Oil revenues fall Economy remains very dependent on oil Differences Not preceded by economic boom this time Very moderate population and economic growth Problem is not a surprise Have savings this time Have more control this time More economic diversity, a larger service sector Much less oil production Much lower interest rates Tax Reform Act of 1986? Still not sure if better, worse or just different? Too early to tell.

19 2015-A Softer Year In Alaska percent employment change from previous year-ak 1.9% 1.6% 1% 1.4% 1.3% 1.7% 1.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0% -0.4% '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11* '12 '13 '14* '15 *preliminary

20 Where Jobs Are Forecast To Come From And Disappear In 2015 Total Leisure & Hospitality Re tail Trade Health Care Oil Indus try M anufacturing Transportation Inform ation Cons truction Professional & Bus. Svcs. Governm ent Forecasted job gains and losses Sourc e: Alas k a Department of Labor and Work forc e Dev elopment, Res earc h and Analy s is Sec tion

21 Some Other Forecasts for ALASKA-Northern Alaska-ours Economics ALASKA-Northern ALASKA-ours Economics -0.5% 0.1% 0% 0.4% ANCHORAGE-mine ANCHORAGE-mine ANCHORAGE-AEDC ANCHORAGE-AEDC FAIRBANKS-ours FAIRBANKS-ours SOUTHEAST-ours SOUTHEAST-ours ISER Construction Forecast -0.5% 0.2% 0% 0.8% 0.5% 0.5% -0.5% -0.3% 0.3% percent percent employment employment change change from from previous previous year year

22 Alaska s Population Gains Grew With National Recession--But Now Slowing Alaska s total 2014 population count was 735,601 Total annual population gains and losses for Alaska 16,037 11,010 7,493 7,437 5,586 6,649 9,003 8,373 4,

23 Alaska s Migration Tells A Different Story Annual net migration, Alaska 8, ,009 1,131 1, ,023-1,111-2,870-7,

24 Alaska Churn--The Number Of Folks Moving In And Moving Out Of AK Each Year 60,000 Alaska migration 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, Comers Goers S ource: A laska Department of Labor and W orkforce Development, Research and A nalysis S ection, A laska Housing Finance Corporation, MLS.

25 200 When People Move In And Out Of Alaska Net m igration (people m oving in m inus people m oving out of AK) Our youth begin to w ander When w e get older m ore m ove out than m ove in Age

We Remain Solidly AKers When It 240,000 220,000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

26 We Remain Solidly AKers When It 240, , , , , , , ,000 Comes To Our Pickups Number of registered pickups in Alaska 727 landing draws crowd ,530 snow machines, peaked at 55,249 in 2008

27 If I didn t answer all your questions you came with Sorry, but just get out your phones and :Ask Jenn

Alaska s Economy: Then and Now

Alaska s Economy: Then and Now, PhD Institute of Social and Economic Research University of Alaska Anchorage 10/11/2017 Outline General Overview 1 General Overview Alaska s Economy and Demographics:Then