BREEDERS CUP COUNTDOWN

Transcription

1 BREEDERS CUP COUNTDOWN SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 15 INSIDE Canadian Stakes, Woodbine, Race 5 Woodbine Mile, Woodbine, Race 10 GO GO BREEDERS CUP CHALLENGE SCHEDULE AND RESULTS WISE DAN

2 Breeders Cup Challenge Schedule and Results DATE... TRACK...RACE... WINNER...BREEDERS CUP DIVISION Jan Kenilworth (SAF)...Queen s Plate...Variety Club (SAF)... Mile Apr Randwick (AUS)...Darley T.J. Smith Stakes...Black Caviar (AUS)... Turf Sprint Apr Randwick (AUS)...Doncaster Mile...Sacred Falls (NZ)... Mile May San Isidro (ARG)...Gran Premio 25 de Mayo...Ordak Dan (ARG)... Turf June Churchill Downs...Stephen Foster Handicap...Fort Larned... Classic June Palermo (ARG)...Clasico General Belgrano...Ever Rider (ARG)... Marathon June Hanshin (JPN)...Takarazuka Kinen...Gold Ship (JPN)... Turf June Saint-Cloud (FRA)...Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud...Novellist (IRE)... Turf June Betfair Hollywood Park...Shoemaker Mile...Obviously (IRE)... Mile June Betfair Hollywood Park...Triple Bend Handicap...Centralinteligence... Dirt Mile July 6... Calder Race Course...Smile Sprint Handicap...Bahamian Squall... Sprint July 6... Monmouth Park...United Nations Stakes...Big Blue Kitten... Turf July Betfair Hollywood Park...A Gleam Handicap...Book Review... Filly & Mare Sprint July Ascot (GBR)...King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes...Novellist (IRE)... Turf July Del Mar...Bing Crosby Stakes...Points Offthebench... Turf Sprint Aug Del Mar...Clement L. Hirsch Handicap...Lady of Fifty... Distaff Aug Saratoga...Whitney Handicap...Cross Traffic... Classic Aug Deauville (FRA)...Prix du Haras de Fresnay-Le-Buffard Jacques le Marois...Moonlight Cloud (GB)... Mile Aug Arlington Park...Arlington Million...Real Solution... Turf Aug Arlington Park...Beverly D. Stakes...Dank (GB)... Filly & Mare Turf Aug York (GBR)...Lowther Stakes...Lucky Kristale (GB)... Juvenile Fillies Turf Aug York (GBR)...Darley Yorkshire Oaks...The Fugue (GB)... Filly & Mare Turf Aug Saratoga...Ballerina Stakes...Dance To Bristol... Filly & Mare Sprint Aug York (GBR)...Coolmore Nunthorpe Stakes...Jwala (GB)... Turf Sprint

3 Breeders Cup Challenge Schedule and Results DATE... TRACK...RACE... WINNER...BREEDERS CUP DIVISION Aug Del Mar...Del Mar Handicap...Vagabond Shoes (IRE)... Turf Aug Del Mar...TVG Pacific Classic...Game on Dude... Classic Aug Del Mar...Pat O Brien Stakes...Fed Biz... Dirt Mile Aug Saratoga...Personal Ensign Handicap...Royal Delta... Distaff Sept Baden Baden...Grosser Preis Von Baden...Novellist (IRE)... Turf Sept Currragh (IRE)...Moyglare Stud Stakes...Rizeena (IRE)... Juvenile Fillies Turf Sept Churchill Downs...Iroquois Stakes...Cleburne... Juvenile Sept Churchill Downs...Pocahontas Stakes...Untapable... Juvenile Fillies Sept Leopardstown...Breeders Cup Juvenile Trial...Australia (GB)... Juvenile Turf Sept Leopardstown (IRE)...Irish Champion Stakes...The Fugue (GB)... Turf Sept Woodbine...Natalma Stakes... Juvenile Fillies Turf Sept Woodbine...Summer Stakes... Juvenile Turf Sept Woodbine...Woodbine Mile... Mile Sept Woodbine...Canadian Stakes... Filly & Mare Turf Sept Belmont Park...Beldame Invitational Stakes... Distaff Sept Belmont Park...Flower Bowl Invitational... Filly & Mare Turf Sept Belmont Park...Jockey Club Gold Cup... Classic Sept Belmont Park...Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational... Turf Sept Belmont Park...Kelso Handicap... Dirt Mile Sept Belmont Park...Vosburgh Invitational Stakes... Sprint Sept Newmarket (GBR)...Juddmonte Royal Lodge Stakes... Juvenile Turf Sept Santa Anita...Awesome Again Stakes... Classic Sept Santa Anita...Chandelier Stakes... Juvenile Fillies Sept Santa Anita...FrontRunner Stakes... Juvenile Sept Santa Anita...Rodeo Drive Stakes... Filly & Mare Turf

4 Breeders Cup Challenge Schedule and Results DATE... TRACK...RACE... WINNER...BREEDERS CUP DIVISION Sept Santa Anita...Zenyatta Stakes... Distaff Oct Keeneland...Darley Alcibiades Stakes... Juvenile Fillies Oct Keeneland...Phoenix Stakes... Sprint Oct Belmont Park...Champagne Stakes... Juvenile Oct Belmont Park...Frizette Stakes... Juvenile Fillies Oct Keeneland...Dixiana Breeders Futurity... Juvenile Oct Keeneland...Shadwell Turf Mile Stakes... Mile Oct Keeneland...Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes... Filly & Mare Sprint Oct Santa Anita...Santa Anita Sprint Championship... Sprint Oct Belmont Park...Miss Grillo Stakes... Juvenile Fillies Turf Oct Belmont Park...Pilgrim Stakes... Juvenile Turf Oct Keeneland...Bourbon Stakes... Juvenile Turf Oct Keeneland...Juddmonte Spinster Stakes... Distaff Oct Longchamp (FR)...Prix de L Opera... Filly & Mare Turf Oct Longchamp...Prix de la Foret... Mile Oct Longchamp...Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere... Juvenile Turf Oct Keeneland...Jessamine Stakes... Juvenile Fillies Turf Oct Woodbine...Nearctic Stakes... Turf Sprint

5 Canadian Stakes WOODBINE, RACE 5 By Randy Goulding MINAKSHI This 5-year-old French-bred is looking for her first win in North America and first graded win. She set a moderate pace before tiring late to finish third in the Grade 3 Matchmaker at Monmouth Park in her latest, but she ran a big race in her first start in North America when she rallied to just miss to Julie s Love who finished second in the Grade 2 Dance Smartly behind Solid Appeal. Julie s Love came back to finish fourth in the Matchmaker. There is other potential speed in the field, so it wouldn t be surprising to see Contreras let her settle into a stalking position. She is in good hands with Matz, but the past five years he has a 7 percent strike rate in graded races on the turf. She should be part of the equation, but others look more attractive for the top spot and would recommend using her underneath in the exotics. NO EXPLAINING Not sure why this proven graded stakes winner missed all of 2012, but she came back running this year and didn t get beat by all that much by Solid Appeal in the Grade 2 Dance Smartly in her second start back. Like the way she won her next start, and the horse that finished third came back to win the $104K Avowal with an 88 Beyer Speed Figure on Sept. 1. She also is versatile and should get a nice trip from a stalking position with Velazquez picking up the mount. Attfield and Velazquez teamed up to the win Grade 1 E.P. Taylor and the Grade 3 Singspiel in She had a sharp work Sept. 4, and it looks like she could be coming up to a peak performance in her fourth start of the year. She also could improve as a first-time Lasix user. She looks like the best of the three horses Attfie ld entered, and she gets in pretty light. Playable. SOLID APPEAL She couldn t keep up in the Grade 1 Beverly D. at Arlington, but that was a tough field that included multiple Grade 1 winner Marketing Mix who finished fourth. The winner, Dank, was making her first start in North America and earned a 107 Beyer Speed Figure for her blowout win. Solid Appeal went into the Beverly D. with three straight wins, including a score in the Grade 2 Dance Smartly in her previous race. She ll appreciate the easier company and being back on a turf course over which she has won four races from six starts. She also is reunited with Campbell who was aboard for her last two wins here. With her good tactical speed, she should get a nice trip from a stalking position and has to be considered a serious win candidate. LADYS FIRST She dead-heated for first in the Group 3 Atalanta Stakes at Sandown, and any graded stakes winner in Europe has to be taken seriously. Looking back to last year, she just missed to Dank in the same race, and we now know how good Dank is from her impressive performance in the Beverly D. Gifted Girl, who beat her three back at Pontefract, finished second to Dank in the Beverly D., so she obviously fits here. It seems like she might be coming back too soon, especially considering the long ship, but Fahey won this race last year with Barefoot Lady who was coming off a fourth in a Group 3 at York just three weeks prior to her upset score. Hard not to like a horse that has finished in the top three in 13 of her 17 starts while facing serious horses in Europe. Another one with a big chance at winning what appears to be a wide-open race. PURE BLUE SKY This 4-year-old daughter of Purim is looking for her first win on grass, and this isn t exactly and easy place to find it. She did run a decent race going 1 1/2 miles in the Flaming Page, but the 77 Beyer Speed Figure she earned isn t going to scare anyone. She does seem to be moving in the right direction and she earned her first black type when she finished third in the Grade 3 Ontario Matron behind Sisterly Love. That was on Polytrack, however, and this is a lot tougher field than she has ever faced in the past. The one positive note is the strong numbers Stein and DiPasquale have put up together, but other than that, there just isn t enough to convince us to support her. It is just hard to see her making much of an impact. MOMENT OF MAJESTY Second from Attfield went into this race last year on a bit of a roll and was coming off a win in the Belle Mahone. She didn t fire, though, and hasn t won since. A different set of circumstances could lead to a better performance this time. She has only started three times this year and after a dull effort in the Dance Smartly, she came back with a big effort in the Belle Mahone again. She is a much fresher horse and could be coming up to a big race in her second start back, while last year she may have peaked just prior to the Canadian. We have a lot of respect for Attfield in these type of situations, and the past five years, he has a respectable 14 percent strike rate in graded races. She had a nice work Sept. 9, so it looks like he might have this gal headed in the right direction. The price should be right, so we will consider using her in the exotics.

6 CANADIAN STAKES CONTINUED COLONIAL FLAG Second from Matz won the only time she ran over this course in the Grade 3 Ontario Collen last year, so we know she likes it here. She is coming into this off a sharp win in a minor stakes at Delaware going this distance, and her third to Miz Ida in the Grade 3 Mint Julep at Churchill on June 8 puts her in the mix. Going back to last year, she ran a couple of big races at Churchill Downs behind Grade 1 winner Centre Court, and she s only had three starts this year, so she could be peaking at the right time. Nonetheless, it has been more than a year since she won a race, and while that was a nice effort in her last, it was a substantially easier group than she is facing here. She ll need to take a big step forward to play a major role. MERI SHIKA She is the only 3-year-old in the field, and with just a single win to her credit, this would seem like a tough spot to make her first start in North America. The horse that she finished second to at Longchamp on June 4 came back to finish fourth in the Grade 3 Prix Chloe at Chantilly on June 30. This gal ran an even race against non-graded company in her latest, and she would need to improve substantially to make an impact here. She did place in a Grade 3 as a 2-year-old, but the only time she tried graded company this year she finished pretty far back. She is out of a mare that won just a single race, and her only sibling is a two-time winner with more than $100K in earnings. Attfield hasn t won with the last three that were making their first start in North America, and this gal would have to be viewed as a longshot. Prefer others. LA TIA She looks like the one they will have to catch, and we aren t going to knock her for not being able to keep up when the real running started in the Beverly D. She ll appreciate the easier company and the slightly shorter distance. Her trainer went out on his own this year, and he s won with 18 percent of his starters, but this is the only horse that he trains that has raced in graded races. He was the assistant to trainer Brian Williamson when La Tia won the Grade 3 Arlington Park Oaks going 1 1/8 miles on Polytrack last year. At least we know she can go this far, she s won on the lawn, and if Desormeaux can get her to settle early, she should be able to set moderate fractions. Don t be surprised to see her in the mix at the finish.

7 Woodbine Mile WOODBINE, RACE 10 By Jennifer Morrison RIDING THE RIVER He is the reigning male turf champion in Canada and has almost been as good as he was in 2012 in his outings this year. Riding the River is a blue collar horse, purchased for $3,500 as a yearling, and was only 1 1/2 lengths behind Turallure in this race two years ago and then fourth behind Wise Dan last year. Last year s Mile was his final race of the year as the season caught up to him and, according to trainer Dave Cotey, he was starting to show wear and tear. Riding the River closed well in the Play the King, the prep for this race, and that was a lot better than a perplexing run in the Nijinsky. While he has nibbled in this important race, Riding the River is just a cut below the Grade 1 level and there are others who are more likely to be closer to Wise Dan. EXCAPER He is a brilliant speedster who has run uncountable good races in stakes, in particular the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf in Excaper is seemingly better around one turn and his record on the Woodbine turf course confirms that. Loved his return to action in July, when Excaper ran his competition into the ground over a very firm grass course and he better that Beyer Speed Figure in the Play the King. His speed is going to be his most valuable asset but he s also fresh since this is his third race since last year and trainer Ian Black has a 19 percent win mark wit horses making their third start off the layoff during the last five years. Oh yes, Black has also won this race before, in 2008, with Rahy s Attorney, who was turning back in distance. Keep this colt in exotic bets. TRADE STORM Trade Storm is the most intriguing one in the field and he has come a long way to go against the reigning North American Horse of the Year. A private purchase earlier this year, Trade Storm s win in the Zabell Mile was impressive since he had a blazing turn of foot. He prefers firm turf and has done his best against the top milers overseas in recent outings over less than firm going. Have to respect trainer David Simcock, who brought I m a Dreamer to Woodbine in 2011, gave her Lasix, and watched her finish second by a head at 8-1. Last summer, that same filly went to Chicago from overseas, added Lasix, and won the Grade 1 Beverly D. So with Trade Storm getting the medication and probably a firm grass course, he could be a dangerous rival for Wise Dan. WISE DAN Woodbine fans are lucky to get to see the reigning Horse of the Year once again and last year s Woodbine Mile win by the champ was right near the beginning of this great streak he is currently riding. One of his best races of his career came just two starts back when he lugged 128 pounds over soft grass and got into traffic trouble in a five-horse field. His latest was fun to watch as Wise Dan was under 129 pounds, behind a loose front-runner but he went past that horse under a hand ride. The champ arrived Friday morning in cool and crisp weather in Toronto and he has the speed of Excaper and Dimension to deal with in this race. Looks like he will have another fun romp in Canada. DIMENSION He showed a new dimension in the Play the King when his rider sent him from the rail post after a bit of a tardy start and they led all the way over a firm grass course. Dimension has never won at the distance from six tries so that is the concern one should have when thinking about playing him. The trainer runs his own training center, where Dimension has been prepping but we re thinking that with the big recent effort, the traveling and the longer distance, a regression may be in store. Use only at the bottoms of trifectas. ZA APPROVAL He makes his first trip to Ontario off his best career Beyer Figure and that came on the other side of the continent in the key Shoemaker Mile. The winner came back to take the Del Mar Handicap with a 99 Beyer Figure and fourth-place finisher Jeranimo came back to take the Grade 1 Eddie Read. Za Approval is a 5-year-old gelding with room to improve and he has a strong stretch rally in one-mile turf races. Za Approval only just started competing in graded stakes and he has handled himself well. Trainer Christophe Clement has run 23 horses at Woodbine in the last five years, according to DRF Formulator with some success, most notably with Right One in 2011, who was third, beaten just a neck in this same race. Perhaps he is the budding star in this field.