Theological Education: State of the Enterprise and the Impact on Economic Challenges Facing Future Ministers

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Ellen Sutton
5 years ago
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1 Theological Education: State of the Enterprise and the Impact on Economic Challenges Facing Future Ministers

2 The Three Big Question: Finance for Future Ministers What are the economic challenges facing future ministers? Whose economic challenges are these? How do the actors involved, both individual and institutional, realize and act to solve the challenges? What are the most effective strategies that can be devised to solve these challenges?

3 Theological Education: The State of the Enterprise Enrollment Financial Capacity Current Responses to Economic Challenges

4 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Total Enrollment by Degree Categories Other Adv Acad Adv Prof Acad MA Prof MA MDiv

5 Total HC Enrollment by School in Fall 2013 and Change Over Last Decade 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Enrollment scale is truncated to 600. About 35% have increased and 65% decreased over the decade. Median change is 14% and median enrollment is 165 HC students.

6 Total Enrollment by School, 2013 (median = 155 students) Total Enrollment th 50 th 75 th M Schools 9 schools = 25% / 33 schools = 50% / Total Enrollment = students in 267 schools

7 Applications, Acceptances, New Enrollees in Degree Programs, Same Set ATS Schools Applications Acceptances New Enrollees This reflects the same 208 schools that were part of ATS for the entire two decades. The number of Applications, Acceptances, and New Enrollees has grown about 7 10% during the period.

8 Average New Enrollees and New Enrollees as Percent of Completions, Last Decade 200 Average New Enrollees % 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% New Enrollees as Percent of Completions Scale truncated to 200 new enrollees and 200%. Median in last decade is 36 and 123%.

9 Theological Education: The State of the Enterprise Expenditures Financial Capacity Current Responses to Economic Challenges

10 Adjusted Unrestricted Revenues and Expenses $1,800 $1,600 $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $0 $ Millions Adjusted Revenues Expenses Surplus (deficit)

11 Expense/FTE in Freestanding Schools, 2013 (median = $46,400) $250,000 $200,000 Exp/FTE $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $0 M Schools

12 $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $0 Expenditures per FTE by Ecclesial Family Evangelical Mainline Roman Catholic/Orthodox

13 The Financial Story: Expenditures for Education, Institutional Support, and Scholarship in ATS Schools $900 $800 $700 $600 Millions $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $ Education (Instruction, Library, Academic Support) Institutional Support (All Other) Scholarship

14 Theological Education: The State of the Enterprise Revenues

15 LT Investments in ATS Schools $9 $8 $7 $6 Billions $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 $ % Mainline, 20% Evangelical, 10% RC/Orthodox. 40% in 10 schools. 70 schools reported none.

16 $400 $350 $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $0 5% Earnings on 3 Year Rolling Average of LT Investments in ATS Schools Millions

17 Total Giving by Source All ATS Schools $800 $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $ Millions Other Orgs Fund Raising Religious Orgs Corporations Foundation Other Ind Alumni

18 Gross and Net Tuition in ATS Schools $700 $600 Gross Millions $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 Net Net + US $ Net + ATS Net + ATS = ATS expenditure change upon base year. Net + US = US CPI change upon base year.

19 Gross and Net Tuition in ATS Schools Freestanding $700 $600 Gross Millions $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 Net Net + US $ Net + ATS Net + ATS = ATS expenditure change upon base year. Net + US = US CPI change upon base year.

20 Gross and Net Tuition in ATS Schools Evangelical $400 Millions $350 $300 $250 $200 $150 Gross Net Net + US $100 $50 Net + ATS $ Net + ATS = ATS expenditure change upon base year. Net + US = US CPI change upon base year.

21 Gross and Net Tuition in ATS Schools Mainline $250 $200 Gross Millions $150 $100 Net Net + ATS $50 $ Net + US Net + ATS = ATS expenditure change upon base year. Net + US = US CPI change upon base year.

22 Gross and Net Tuition in ATS Schools Roman Catholic/Orthodox $120 $100 Gross Millions $80 $60 $40 Net Net + US $20 $ Net + ATS Net + ATS = ATS expenditure change upon base year. Net + US = US CPI change upon base year.

23 Theological Education: The State of the Enterprise Student Debt What is debt load by age group? What student population is particularly susceptible to debt? What is current debt load and changes over time? What are differences between freestanding and related? What is debt rate with crosstab to tuition rate? How does time to completion impact student debt?

24 Educational Debt Brought to and Incurred in Seminary, ATS and ECFFM Schools, Masters Students 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% More than $40,000 $30,000 to $39,999 $20,000 to $29,999 $10,000 to $19,999 Less than $10,000 None 10% 0% Brought ATS Incurred ATS Brought ECFFM Incurred ECFFM Source: ATS Gradating Student Questionnaire Average of Last Three Years.

25 Educational Debt Brought to and Incurred in Seminary, Masters Students Incurred 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% None <$10K $10K $20K $20 $30K $30K $40K >$40K Brought >$40K $30K $40K $20 $30K $10K $20K <$10K None Source: ATS Gradating Student Questionnaire Average of Last Three Years.

26 Educational Incurred in Seminary, by Age Group, ATS Schools, Masters Students 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% >$40K $30K $40K $20K $30K $10 $20K <$10K None Source: ATS Gradating Student Questionnaire Average of Last Three Years.

27 Theological Education: State of the Enterprise and the Impact on Economic Challenges Facing Future Ministers

Exhibit #MH-156. ELECTRIC OPERATIONS (MH10-2) PROJECTED OPERATING STATEMENT (In Millions of Dollars) For the year ended March 31 REVENUES

Exhibit #MH-156. ELECTRIC OPERATIONS (MH10-2) PROJECTED OPERATING STATEMENT (In Millions of Dollars) For the year ended March 31 REVENUES PROJECTED OPERATING STATEMENT 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 REVENUES General Consumers at approved rates 1,194 1,223 1,235 1,254 1,265 1,279 1,296 1,307 1,320 1,336 additional * - 42