Back to the future? The evolving division of innovative labor and the changing locus of innovation in the American economy

Transcription

1 Back to the future? The evolving division of innovative labor and the changing locus of innovation in the American economy Ashish Arora, Fuqua School of Business, Duke Univ, and National Bureau of Economic Research

2 Golden age of independent inventors, Edison Stanley Sperry Thompson westinghouse Independent inventors Assigned patents to multiple firms Decline nationally after 1890 Specialized intermediaries Corporations External technology and inventions Internal R&D as quality control, absorp capacity Sources: Lamoreaux and Sokoloff, Usselman,

3 Rise of industrial research and innovation after WWI "I am fully convinced that it has never, is not now, and never will pay commercially, to keep an establishment of professional inventors, or of men whose chief business it is to invent the duties of the patent department (should be) first and foremost on examining patents or inventions submitted by the public for consideration and second on examining descriptions of inventions forwarded by the company's employees. T.D. Lockwood, on the Duties of the patent department, at AT&T, (cited by Lamoreaux and Sokoloff, 1999) Firm growth through innovation Assess and evaluate external technology The original function of corporate R&D input for internal invention Source of inventions Guide internal search Anti-trust Other: Attract smart people Signal to regulators or customers Window on future Why Internal Research

4 The Golden age of American Corporate R&D?

5 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% Share of total privately funded R&D in the US, by firm size, Source:NSF S&E Indicators 25,000 or more 5,000 to 9,999 10,000 to 24,999 1,000 to 4,999 20% 500 to 999 Less than 500 employees 0% Diminishing role of large firms in industrial R&D in the US post 1980, market for technology, M&A, outsourcing Block and Keller, 2009.

6 constant 2009 $billions Post US firms are withdrawing from research 33% US business expenditure on basic and applied research, as share of total business funded R&D, , 3 year moving average, and total business funded R&D in constant 2009 dollars Share of publishing and patenting US public firms, , Arora, Belenzon, Patacconi, 2015 Share of patenting firms 437/1,814 firms 31% 29% 27% 25% 23% 21% 19% 17% 70 26% 32% Basic + Applied as % of total R&D, 3 yr moving average 147 Business Funded R&D % /1,814 Share of firms publishing firms 15% Source: NSF S&E Indicators, 2016, Appendix tables

7 Role of corporate research in corporate innovation Innovation led growth Other (e.g. global, financial engineer, cost leader) Internal Inventions External invention + Internal development Acquisitions Internal research Abs. Cap External knowledge Universities, startups, Non-US sources

8 % of total R&D US distribution of technology licensing receipts by sector 2002, $B; Carol Robbins, BEA 2006, tab 7 Sector Licensing of Rights to Use IP Protected as Industrial Property Licensing of Rights to Use IP Protected by Trademarks Licensing of Rights to Use IP Protected by Copyright Licensing of Rights to Use a business format under a franchise Payments for rights to use Natural Resources and Other intangibles Total Manufacturing Trade and Transp Information Fin and Ins Prof and Bus Serv Other Industries Total Contract R&D as share of total R&D, Market Transactions: Supply side Inventor perspective: Contract License Get acquired - Patent re-assignment data? (Carlos Serrano) share of contract R&D, total share of contract R&D in manuf. R&D 1.0 Source:NSF S&E Indicators

9 Demand Side: Innovator Perspective All US Manuf 58% 42% No new products 27% Imitation (new-to-firm) Innovation (new-to-mkt) 16% Internal invention External invention 51% 49% Sources of external invention Supplier 14 Customer 27 Other Firm 8 Consultant Serv provider 8 Ind. Inventor 7 Univ 5 All specialists 17 JV M&A LIC Contract Informal Market Market only Channels for acquiring external innovation Innovation and the Sources of Invention in American Manufacturing, : Arora, Cohen, Walsh, Research Policy 2016

10 Knowledge for invention: Citations by US Patents to S&E articles 26% 24.46% 2.4% 24% % of cited articles, 2.2% % of patents citing S&E lit 2.2% 2.1% 2.1% 22% citations recd by industry pubs as % of citations recd by all US pubs 2.0% 2.0% 20% 18.72% 19.31% 18.15% 18.80% 1.8% 18% 1.6% industry pubs cited as share of all US pubs cited 1.6% 16% 14% 1.4% 16.14% 1.4% 12% 12% 1.2% 10% % NSF S&E Indicators 2014 and 2016

11 Division of innovative labor: technology specialists & intermediaries total R&D in $B, 46 R&D $B Source:NSF S&E Indicators Domestic net sales Business-performed R&D/ sales (%) Company-funded R&D/ sales (%) All 6,642,500 7,027, Chemicals 524, , Computer and electronic 612, , SW and comp serv 376, , Aero and defense manuf 243, , R&D and related services d 86,945 89, Automotive manufacturing e 686, , All other 4,111,921 4,424, Academic R&D, patenting, and licensing in the US, total R&D in $B Gross royalties/total academic R&D, 3 yr moving average, New U.S. patent applications filed, in tens / total academic R&D in $M, 3 yr moving average

12 What we need more data on Sources of invention Internal Partners (customers, suppliers) Others (Startups, universities,...) Sources of knowledge Corporate University? Flows of external knowledge Citations? Text matching? Flows of external invention Licensing Contract M&A JV? Collaboration?