Migration and the Sustainable Development Goals

Transcription

1 Migration and the Sustainable Development Goals Nebojsa Acting Director General International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Professor Emeritus of Energy Economics Vienna University of Technology Evidence and Policy Summer School: The role of population and migration for sustainable development in the European Neighbourhood, IIASA 7 September 2018

2 2018 #2

3 Four Great Achievements since the Beginning of Industrial Revolution Life expectancy has doubled in a century One billion are obese while less go hungry More die by suicide than war and violence Everyone in the world has a mobile phone 2018 #3

4 Xroads in the Role of Science 2018 #4

5 Global Lorenz Distributions 100 % 80 % Cumulative Consumption 60 % 40 % 20 % 0 % 0 % 20 % 40 % 60 % 80 % 100 % cumulative Population 2018 #5

6 Global Lorenz Distributions 100 % 80 % GDP per capita 2013 Electricity 2010 Calories 2011 Animal calories 2011 Mobile phones 2013 Cumulative Consumption 60 % 40 % 20 % 0 % 0 % 20 % 40 % 60 % 80 % 100 % cumulative Population 2018 #6

7 Mobile Phones Charging Source: Modi, #7

8 Wood for Cooking Source: Modi, 2011 and Yumkella, #8

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12 100,000-year ice-core record Source: Data from Petit et al. 1999, labeled as in Young and Steffen Rockström 2017 #12

13 By Saioa López, Lucy van Dorp and Garrett Hellenthal - López, S., van Dorp, L., & Hellenthal, G. (2015). Human Dispersal Out of Africa: A Lasting Debate. Evolutionary Bioinformatics Online, 11(Suppl 2), CC BY 3.0, #13

14 Holocene Temperature Profile Adapted from Shakun et al and Marcott et al Rockström 2017 #14

15 Tipping Elements & Paris Adapted from Schellnhuber et al Rockström 2017 #15

16 2018 #16

17 World Migrations Since #17

18 Global Transformations Years before present People Hunter-Gatherer Source: Kates, 1997; Deevey, #18

19 Global Transformations Neolithic Revolution Years before present People Million Neolithic 1700 A.D Million 8000 B.C. Hunter-Gatherer Source: Kates, 1997; Deevey, #19

20 Global Transformations Neolithic and Industrial Revolutions Years before present ,000 Million Industrial People Million Neolithic 1700 A.D Million 8000 B.C. Hunter-Gatherer Source: Kates, 1997; Deevey, #20

21 People Global Transformations Anthropocene Sustainability Years before present after present Anthropocene Industrial - Urban 7,000 Million Sustainability 700 Million 1700 A.D. Neolithic 12.5 Billion 5 Billion Million 8000 B.C. Hunter-Gatherer Source: Lutz & Scherbov, 2007; #21

22 The Great Acceleration Source: Steffen et al #22

23 The Great Acceleration Source: Steffen et al #23

24 The Great Acceleration Source: Steffen et al #24

25 The Great Acceleration Source: Steffen et al #25

26 The Great Acceleration Source: Steffen et al #26

27 The Great Acceleration Source: Steffen et al #27

28 The Great Acceleration Source: Steffen et al #28

29 The Great Acceleration Source: Steffen et al #29

30 The Great Acceleration Source: Steffen et al #30

31 The Great Acceleration Source: Steffen et al #31

32 The Great Acceleration Source: Steffen et al #32

33 Collective Responsibility in the Anthropocene 2018 #33

34 2018 #34

35 Moore s Carbon Carbon Law Law Rockström, Gaffney, Rogelj, Meinshausen,, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March #35

36 Moore s Carbon Carbon Law Law Rockström, Gaffney, Rogelj, Meinshausen,, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March #36

37 Moore s Carbon Carbon Law Law Rockström, Gaffney, Rogelj, Meinshausen,, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March #37

38 Moore s Carbon Carbon Law Law Rockström, Gaffney, Rogelj, Meinshausen,, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March #38

39 2018 #39

40 2018 #40

41 Progress Eagle 2018 #41

42 Proposed Carbon Composite Bridge Over I-5 at Northgate Seattle 2018 #42

43 Grand Transformation 2018 #43

44 Multiple Benefits of Integrated Policies 1.2% Total Global Policy Costs ( ) 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% Only Energy Security Only Air Pollution and Health Only Climate Change All Three Objectives Source: McCollum et. al, 2012; IPCC, #44

45 TWI2050 Report ( Key Messages Synthesis 1. Framing and Introduction 2. The Challenges Ahead 3. Sustainable Development Pathways 4. Governing the Transformation >60 authors from ~20 organizations Launch: UN HLPF, Side Event 12 July, 13:15, 15 th Floor TWI2050 Writing Meeting 5-7 March 2018, IIASA 2018 #45

46 TWI2050 Report ( Key Messages Synthesis 1. Framing and Introduction 2. The Challenges Ahead 3. Sustainable Development Pathways 4. Governing the Transformation >60 authors from ~20 organizations Launch: UN HLPF, Side Event 12 July, 13:15, 15 th Floor TWI2050 Writing Meeting 5-7 March 2018, IIASA 2018 #46

47 he World in 2050 ( Targets Vision: Sustainable Future Transformation One backcasting narrative and many transformational pathways Legitimacy of BAU eroding 2030 Agenda Source: After WBGU, #47

48 Transformational Change Source: After Granger Morgan, #48

49 Impact of IC Technology Convergence Source: Grubler et al., #49

50 Six Major Transformations (TWI2050.org) Digital revolution Artificial intelligence, big data, biotech, nanotech, autonomous systems Smart cities Decent housing, mobility, sustainable infrastructure, pollution Food, biosphere & water Sustainable intensification, biodiversity, forests, oceans, healthy diets, nutrients SDGs: Prosperity Social Inclusion Sustainability Human capacity & demography Education, health, ageing, labor markets, gender, inequalities Consumption & production Resource use, circular economy, sufficiency, pollution Decarbonization & energy Energy access, efficiency, electrification, decent services 2018 #50

51 Digital Revolution 2018 #51

52 Technology Diffusion Compared digital revolution Source: Nokia Bell Labs, #52

53 Sankt. Petersburg Airport Duty Free 2017 #53

54 Disruptive Change Darum geht zu allen Völkern [ ] und lehrt sie alles zu befolgen was ich Euch geboten habe. Seid gewiss: Ich bin bei euch alle Tage bis ans Ende der Welt. Source: Campanale, Carobntracker 2017 #54

55 100% Technology Diffusion Compared (access to safe sanitation) 80% 60% 40% OECD Toilets Δt = 72 yrs 20% Non-OECD Toilets Δt = 52 yrs 0% Source: Grubler, #55

56 100% Technology Diffusion Compared (access to safe sanitation and cellphones) 80% 60% 40% 20% Cellphones Δt = 13 yrs OECD Toilets Δt = 72 yrs Cellphones Δt = 11 yrs Non-OECD Toilets Δt = 52 yrs 0% Source: Grubler, #56

57 2018 #57

58 THANK YOU