Demographic Study: October 2017 Update Public School Enrollments for Tredyffrin/Easttown School District

Transcription

1 Demographic Study: October 2017 Update Public School Enrollments for Tredyffrin/Easttown School District 940 West Valley Road, Suite 1700, Wayne, PA Prepared by ~~~~~~~~~ SUNDANCE ~~~~~~~ ~~~~~ Sundance Associates 117 Greenvale Court Cherry Hill, NJ Tel Fax November 2, 2017

2 Table of Contents Pages SUPPORTING DEMOGRAPHICS Births; Municipal and District School Year Residential Permitting for New Construction Future Housing Occupancy Schedule School Age Multipliers New Students from New Housing Comparative Factors: Residential Sales, Permits & Enrollments ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS District Wide Enrollments by Year Elementary Grade K-4 Enrollments Middle School Grade 5-8 Enrollments High School Grade 9-12 Enrollments Comparative Enrollments by Grade Level Organization Beaumont Elementary Devon Elementary Hillside Elementary New Eagle Elementary Valley Forge Elementary Comparative Elementary Enrollments by School Tredyffrin-Easttown Middle Valley Forge Middle Comparative Middle School Enrollments by School APPENDIX: A1. Standard Worksheet A2. Plus Housing Impact Worksheet B1. Notes on Methodology C1. Exposition of Grade Level Survival Ratios NOTES REGARDING THIS OCTOBER 2017 UPDATE The projection uses the Standard methodology for Cohort Survival as described in previous studies. Adjustments are made for recent trends. This includes using a 4-year average for Births for the as yet unknown years, instead of a 6-year average. Also the Birth to Kindergarten Survival Ratio and the Kindergarten to 1st Grade Survival Ratio are the average of the most recent two years. This significantly increases the B:K ratio and slightly decreases the K:1 ratio. This adjustment is made on the District level and at individual schools. Adjustments are also made for new housing in accordance with permitting and occupancy schedules determined in consultation with the Developers.

3 450 School Year Births- 4 Yr Trend Sch Yr Births Yr Avg Yr Trend This study uses the 4-year average of 335 births for years 2017 and forward for which no data is available. Use of a standard 6- year average would be skewed away from recent trends. The recent 4-year trend is for 10 additional Births per year. Tredyffrin-Easttown School District October 2017 Enrollmant Update 1

4 Total Housing Unit Building Permits for: Sum of TESD Permitted or Planned > Total Units Single-Family Multi-Family Housing Unit Building Permits for: EASTTOWN TOWNSHIP, PA (Chester County) Total Units Single-Family All Multi-Family Housing Unit Building Permits for: TREDYFFRIN TOWNSHIP, PA (Chester County) Total Units Single-Family Multi-Family Residential Permits Easttown Tredyffrin Combined Future units of housing are approved or planned for construction and occupancy over the next three years. These townhouse, apartment and single-family houses will generate school age children. There are also 400 approved units of Assisted Living that will not generate school age children. Tredyffrin-Easttown School District October 2017 Enrollmant Update 2

5 Future Housing Occupancy Schedule Unit Total Type Bdrms Count Remain Wayne Glen Townhouse 2 Bdrm Walker Rd. Townhouse 3 Bdrm Conditional Use App'l Chesterbrook V TH own 3 Bdrm Chesterbrook Blvd. TH rent 3 Bdrm In Construction Village Square Townhouse 2 Bdrm So Valley Rd. Townhouse 3 Bdrm In Construction Lehman & Holder Townhouse 3 Brdm 6 6 Center Overlay District Needs Ord Amend Station Square Rental Apt 1 Bdrm N.Valley Rental Apt 2 Bdrm Resubmit-Appl Denied Peytons Crossing Townhouse 3 Brdm Berkley Rd Under Review WWEDFritz Lumber Rental Apt 1 Bdrm Lancaster Ave. Rental Apt 2 Bdrm Under Review Newtown Road Single Fam 4 Bdrm Newtown Rd Under Review Mack Oil-Tredyffrin Single Fam 4 Bdrm Branch Ave No Application yet Mack Oil-Easttown Single Fam 4 Bdrm Branch Ave SD Approved 10/16/17 Armstrong Prop Single Fam 4 Bdrm Price Ave Approved 10/16/17 Howelville Rd Townhouse 3 Brdm Howelville Rd Withdrawn TOTAL Plus 440 units of Assisted Living in that might increase local resales by units. 159 Units (40%) are speculative but deemed reasonable for future approvals and inclusion on this table. Tredyffrin-Easttown School District October 2017 Enrollmant Update 3

6 Multipliers by Unit Type and Number of Bedrooms School Age Children Public School Age Children Townhouse 2 Bdrm Townhouse 3 Bdrm TH own 3 Bdrm TH rent 3 Bdrm Rental Apt 1 Bdrm Rental Apt 2 Bdrm Single Fam 4 Bdrm Multipliers for School Age Children by Unit Type and Number of Bedrooms are sourced from "Residential Demographic Multipliers for Pennsylvania" prepared by the Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy at Rutgers the State University of New Jersey. Tredyffrin-Easttown School District October 2017 Enrollmant Update 4

7 Future Public School Age Children (PSAC) SAC/ Type Bdrms Unit Total Remain Wayne Glen Townhouse 2 Bdrm Walker Rd. Townhouse 3 Bdrm New Eagle-VFMS Chesterbrook V TH own 3 Bdrm Chesterbrook Blvd. TH rent 3 Bdrm New Eagle-VFMS Village Square Townhouse 2 Bdrm So Valley Rd. Townhouse 3 Bdrm Beaumont-TEMS Lehman & Holder Townhouse 3 Brdm Devon-TEMS Center Overlay District Station Square Rental Apt 1 Bdrm Hillside-VFMS 37 N.Valley Rental Apt 2 Bdrm Peytons Crossing Townhouse 3 Brdm Devon-TEMS Berkley Rd WWEDFritz Lumber Rental Apt 1 Bdrm Devon-TEMS 631 Lancaster Ave. Rental Apt 2 Bdrm Newtown Road Single Fam 4 Bdrm Beaumont-TEMS 1016 Newtown Rd Mack Oil-Tredyffrin Single Fam 4 Bdrm Hillside-TEMS Branch Ave Mack Oil-Easttown Single Fam 4 Bdrm Hillside-TEMS Branch Ave Armstrong Prop Single Fam 4 Bdrm Hillside-TEMS Price Ave Howelville Rd Townhouse 3 Brdm Hillside-TEMS 951 Howelville Rd. 0 TOTAL PSAC Tredyffrin-Easttown School District October 2017 Enrollmant Update 5

8 Factors Impacting Enrollments Residential Permits Enrollment Enrollment Delta Enrollment (0) Annualized Residential Sales Residential Sales, Permits and Enrollment Recession Level 653 Recovery Sales Enrollment (0) Res Permits The level of sales of existing housing at units per year has a stronger impact on enrollments than does permitting for new housing, which for the 10-year period preceeding 2016 averaged just 23 units per year. It is unusual that the enrollment grew at a substantial rate through the recession despite a 150-unit reduction in annual housing sales. Tredyffrin-Easttown School District October 2017 Enrollmant Update 6

9 8000 District Wide Enrollments K Historic Projected Extended Previous TOTAL Average Change %Chg Historic , , , ,575 6, , , % Projected , , ,292 7, , , % Extended , , ,491 7, , , % Tredyffrin-Easttown School District October 2017 Enrollmant Update 7

10 Tredyffrin-Easttown School District Elementary K-Grade 4 Enrollments 52 Students from new housing K-4 Period Period Previous Cap= PKK K TOTAL Average Change Historic Pr ExtendedCap=5325 Historic , , , ,425 2, , , % Projected , # , # ,591 2, # , # , % # 5325 Extended , , ,631 2, , , % Elementary K-Gr 4 Enrollments Historic Projected Extended Previous Tredyffrin-Easttown School District October 2017 Enrollmant Update 8

11 Tredyffrin-Easttown School District Middle School Grade 5-8 Enrollments 26 Students from new housing Previous Gr 5-8 Period Period UG TOTAL Average Change Historic ProjectedExtended Historic , , , , , , % Projected , , , , , % Extended , , , , , % Middle School Gr 5-8 Enrollments Historic Projected Extended Previous Tredyffrin-Easttown School District October 2017 Enrollmant Update 9

12 Tredyffrin-Easttown School District High School Grade 9-12 Enrollments 35 Students from new housing Gr 9-12 Period Period Previous UG TOTAL Average Change Historic Projected Historic , , , , , , % Projected , , , , , % Extended , , , , , % Conestoga High School Grade 9-12 Enrollments Historic Projected Extended Previous Tredyffrin-Easttown School District October 2017 Enrollmant Update 10

13 Tredyffrin-Easttown School District Comparative Enrollments by Grade Level Organization K-4 Gr 5-8 Gr 9-12 TOTAL Historic HIGH 5 Yr Projected LOW Extended Comparative Enrollments by Grade Level Organization PK-Gr 4 Gr 5-8 Gr Tredyffrin-Easttown School District October 2017 Enrollmant Update 11

14 Beaumont ES Enrollment by Year Historic Projected 300 Extended 200 Previous Beaumont Elementary School 17 students from new housing yields 8 students at this elementary school K TOTAL Average Change Historic % Projected % Extended % Tredyffrin-Easttown School District October 2017 Enrollmant Update 12

15 Devon ES Enrollment by Year Historic Projected Extended Previous Devon Elementary School 12 students from new housing yields 5 students at this elementary school K TOTAL Average Change Historic % Projected % Extended % Tredyffrin-Easttown School District October 2017 Enrollmant Update 13

16 Hillside ES Enrollment by Year Historic Projected 300 Extended 200 Previous Hillside Elementary School 46 students from new housing yields 21 students at this elementary school PKSE K TOTAL Average Change Historic % Projected % Extended % Tredyffrin-Easttown School District October 2017 Enrollmant Update 14

17 New Eagle ES Enrollment by Year Historic Projected Extended Previous New Eagle Elementary School 59 students from new housing yields 23 students at this elementary school PKSE K TOTAL Average Change Historic % Projected % Extended % Tredyffrin-Easttown School District October 2017 Enrollmant Update 15

18 Valley Forge ES Enrollment by Year Historic Projected Extended Previous Valley Forge Elementary School 0 students from new housing yields 0 students at this elementary school PKSE K TOTAL Average Change Historic % Projected % Extended % Tredyffrin-Easttown School District October 2017 Enrollmant Update 16

19 Comparative Elementary Schools BeaumonDevon Hillside Eagle Forge Historic Low Projected High 5-Yr Projection Extended New Valley Comparative Enrollments: Elementary Schools Devon N Eagle Val Frg Hillside Beaumont Tredyffrin-Easttown School District October 2017 Enrollmant Update 17

20 Tredyffrin-Easttown MS Enrollment by Year Historic Projected Extended Previous Tredyffrin-Easttown Middle School 51 Students from new housing, yields 16 Students at this Middle School UG TOTAL Average Change Historic , , , ,073 1, , , % Projected , , ,153 1, , , % Extended , , ,247 1, , , % Tredyffrin-Easttown School District October 2017 Enrollmant Update 18

21 Valley Forge MS Enrollment by Year Historic Projected Extended Previous Valley Forge Middle School 53 Students from new housing, yield 12 Students at this Middle School SE TOTAL Average Change Historic , ,011 1, , , % Projected , , ,144 1, , , % Extended , , ,182 1, , , % Tredyffrin-Easttown School District October 2017 Enrollmant Update 19

22 Comparative Middle Schools TEMS VFMS Historic Projected Low High 5-Yr Projection Extended Comparative Enrollments: Middle School 1250 Enrollment TEMS VFMS Tredyffrin-Easttown School District October 2017 Enrollmant Update 20

23 Standard Cohort-Survival Enrollment Projection Worksheet DISTRICT NAME: COUNTY: Tredyffrin-Easttown School District Chester DATA ISSUES: Enrollments are from the Oct 1 reports. "s" = survival rate Births 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th K-5 K-5 PK PK PK PK-5 6th 7th 8th th 10th 11th 12th PK K-12 K-12 PK-12 School 5 Sch Yrs. K Gr. Gr. Gr. Gr. Gr. Subt. EUG Total SCSE 3 yrs. 4yrs. Total Gr. Gr. Gr. Subt. MUG Total Gr. Gr. Gr. Gr. Subt. SUG Total Subt. Subt. Total Total Year Ago "s" "s" "s" "s" "s" "s" (excl. PK) "s" "s" "s" "s" "s" "s" "s" excl. SCSE w/ SCSE Yr Avg SR Std % Pop % 1Yr 3&4YO % 1Yr 4YO % Pop % Pop 2 Yr Avg SR Yr Yr> Yr 0.00% 0% 0% Yr 0.00% Yr 0.00% Change # Students Change % Students 4% 4% 4% 11% 11% 7% 7% 6% 5-YR PROJECTIONS Yr Avg Change # Students Change % Students 7% 7% 7% 0% 0% 10% 10% 6.3% KEY to Number Colors The above information is prepared and certified by a qualified demographer. 99 Standard number with no modifications to methodology 99 Provisional, but uncertified births from the PA Department of Health Firm Name: Sundance Associates 117 Greenvale Ct. Cherry Hill NJ Births projected as an average of the prior 6 years, including provisional data and projected students resulting from this "less accurate" average Name: George B. Sundell Tel GSundell@sundanceassoc.com 99 Students per Grade Level added for residential development Signature: Date: November 1, YR PROJECTIONS NOT CONSIDERED RELIABLE Yr Avg Continued Change # Students Change % Students 1% 1% 1% 9% 9% -1% -1% 2% Tredyffrin-Easttown School District October 2017 Enrollmant Update 21

24 Adjusted for Impact of New Housing Cohort-Survival Enrollment Projection Worksheet - District DISTRICT NAME: COUNTY: Tredyffrin-Easttown School District Chester FALL REPORT AND Enrollments are from the Oct 1 reports. "s" = survival rate Births 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th K-5 K-5 PK PK PK PK-5 6th 7th 8th th 10th 11th 12th PK K-12 K-12 PK-12 School 5 Yrs. K Gr. Gr. Gr. Gr. Gr. Subt. SCSE Total SCSE 3 yrs. 4yrs. Total Gr. Gr. Gr. Subt. SCSE Total Gr. Gr. Gr. Gr. Subt. SCSE Total Subt. Subt. Total Total Year Ago "s" "s" "s" "s" "s" "s" (excl. PK) "s" "s" "s" "s" "s" "s" "s" excl. SCSE w/ SCSE New Children 5-YR PROJECTIONS PLUS NEW HOUSING Cum Yr Add + Resid Resid Resid Resid Resid Change # Students Change % Students 8% 8% 8% 1% 1% 11% 11% 8% New Children 6-10-YR PROJECTIONS PLUS NEW HOUSING NOT CONSIDERED RELIABLE Cum Yr Add + Resid Resid Resid Resid Resid Change # Students Change % Students 0% 0% 0% 9% 9% -1% -1% 2% KEY to Number Colors The above information is prepared and certified by a qualified demographer. 99 Standard number with no modifications to methodology 99 Provisional, but uncertified births from the NJ Department of Health & Senior Services Firm Name: Sundance Associates 117 Greenvale Ct. Cherry Hill NJ Births projected as an average of the prior 6 years, including provisional data and projected students resulting from this "less accurat" average Name: George B. Sundell Tel GSundell@sundanceassoc.com 99 Students per Grade Level added for residential development Signature: Date: November 1, 2017 Tredyffrin-Easttown School District October 2017 Enrollmant Update 22

25 Cohort Survival Methodology Mathematical Analysis Cohort Survival is the name given to the method of projecting enrollments which is recommended by the Pennsylvania Department of Education. The most important terms, concepts and methodology are illustrated herein. Enrollment projections have been made using the Cohort Survival method with modifications as described on the following page.. Cohort Survival projections are based on historic enrollment and birth data in the individual school district and incorporate six years of demographic data. They are considered very reliable where trends are expected to continue, without significant change in housing or birth rates. Cohort is the name given to the common groups of children originally born in a given year and progressing, together, through the school system, one grade level to the next. Survival Ratios refer to the number of students from one year and grade level who survive to or enter the next grade level the following year. Historic Data For example, in the sample partial table in the side bar, historic enrollments show 366 students in 1st Grade in year following a 346 student Kindergarten in year This yields a Kindergarten to First Grade Survival Ratio of (or ). Another expression of the Survival Ratio would be that 106% of the Kindergarten students survived to 1st Grade. Similar calculations are made for survival from Births Five Years Earlier to Kindergarten, and for each and every grade level transition in each and every year of historical enrollments which are used. In general, six years of historic data will yield five Survival Ratios for each grade level change, Birth to K, K to 1, 1 to 2, etc. The Average Survival Ratio is then calculated for each grade level change. In the side-bar example is the 5-year average 1st Grade to 2nd Grade ratio. The sample projections use the current school year enrollments, at the bottom of the Historic chart, as a base year. The Averaged Cohort Survival Ratios are applied to those base year enrollments and to the actual and estimated births, and projected into the next year, one grade level higher. Projected Enrollments In the side-bar example 329 Kindergarten students in survive at a rate of as a First Grade of 409 students. This similar projection is made across all grade levels for a 5-year period. Finally, the individual grade level enrollment projections are summed across each year to determine district-wide enrollments in that year. Tredyffrin-Easttown School District October 2017 Enrollmant Update 23

26 Cohort Survival Methodology Adjustments to Standard Methods Since the study also provides school level projections, it is important to define the feeder system from elementary school to middle school and middle school to high school. That feeder system includes students from Hillside Elementary School split 58.6% to Tredyffrin-Easttown Middle School and 41.3% to Valley Forge Middle School. This is not as much an adjustment to method as it is to distribution. The Hillside Elementary School enrollment split to middle schools was addressed in the school level projections. No adjustments were made for impact of private/parochial school closures, changes in Charter enrollment or changes in Out-of-District placement which are anticipated to continue within existing trends. Adjustments were made to the standard Cohort Survival projection method for the impact of the new Multi-family housing. This is accomplished as an overlay to the standard projection. In each year, the number of students from new housing is distributed equally across all grades and added to the standard projection (cohort) for the grade. In the subsequent years it is survived at the standard rates for that cohort. Adjustments were made to the Birth to Kindergarten Survival Ratio. The Survival Ratio of the last twoyears only at is used. The standard 6-year Survival Ratio of a lower is not used. Similiary, a two-year S/R was used for K:1st Grade of 1.254, slightly lower than the 6-year S?R of Finally, the 4-year average of 355 Births was used rather than the lower 6-year average. This is for Births in the Extended Projection period and effect Elementary grade counts in the final 5 years. Adjustments were made for the impact of students from new housing...and for the Birth to Kindergarten Survival Ratio. Tredyffrin-Easttown School District October 2017 Enrollmant Update 24

27 Grade Level Cohort Survival Ratios TEDS October 2017 Enrollment Projection B:K Survival Rate Avg 1.40 K:1 Survival Rate Avg :2 Survival Rate Avg :3 Survival Rate Avg :4 Survival Rate Avg Tredyffrin-Easttown School District October 2017 Enrollmant Update 25