ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS JANUARY 8, 2018 BOARD OF EDUCATION PRESENTATION JEFF CIMMERER CHIEF INFORMATION OFFICER

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1 1 ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS JANUARY 8, 2018 BOARD OF EDUCATION PRESENTATION JEFF CIMMERER CHIEF INFORMATION OFFICER

2 Pittsford Central School District Enrollment Comparison Between 2016 and 2017 Grades Actual 2016 Actual 2017 Difference by Number of Students K Out of District Placements Total Even * Pittsford students enrolled in-district BOCES; Pittsford students enrolled in out-of-district BOCES classes; Pittsford students who attend private special education schools.

3 School Elementary Enrollment Change Actual Enrollment 2016 Actual Enrollment 2017 Percentage Increase or Decrease Number of Students AC % -5 JR % -27 MC % +5 PR % +7 TR % +8 Elementary School Total % -13

4 Secondary Enrollment Change School Actual Enrollment 2016 Actual Enrollment 2017 Percentage Increase or Decrease Number of Students BRMS % -4 CRMS % -10 Middle School Total % -14 MHS % +20 SHS % +13 High School Total % +33

5 Comparison of Projected to Actual Enrollment 2017 Our predictions 5 years ago Projected for 2017 Actual Enrollment Minus Out of District Placements Accuracy K-5 2,356 2, % 6-8 1,420 1, % ,026 1, % Total 5,802 5,639 (-163) 97.19% (-3% Error) Our predictions 10 years ago Projected for 2017 Actual Enrollment Minus Out of District Placements Accuracy K-5 2,338 2, % 6-8 1,348 1, % ,956 1, % Total 5,642 5,639 (-3) 99.95% (<1% Error)

6 Our predictions 5 years ago Our Predictions Five Years Ago 2012 Projected for Actual Enrollment Minus Out of District Placements Accuracy K-5 2,356 2, % 6-8 1,420 1, % ,026 1, % Total 5,802 5, %

7 Our Predictions Ten Years Ago For 2017 Our predictions 10 years ago Projected for Actual Enrollment Minus Out of District Placements Accuracy K-5 2,338 2, % 6-8 1,348 1, % ,956 1, % Total 5,642 5, %

8 Comparison of Projected HDK to Actual Enrollment 2017 Kindergarten Numerical Percent PCSD Building Projected for 2017 Actual 2017 Difference Difference % Accuracy Allen Creek % 77.42% Jefferson Rd % 61.54% Mendon Center % 64.36% Park Rd % 89.29% Thornell Rd % 92.98% Total % 79.35%

9 Turnover Rate and Projections Transition Difference in Cohort Size From BEDS Day 2016 to BEDS Year Historical Average K go go go go go go go go go go go go For Example K Class of 2017 or Graduation Class of = = = = = = = = = = = = 416

10 Elementary Projections by School Actual Projected ACE JRE MCE PRE TRE Blue = Growth Maroon = Decline Black= Stable

11 Elementary Projections by School Number of Students Projected by Year MCE PRE JRE TRE ACE

12 HDK Kindergarten Projections by Year By School MCE PRE ACE JRE TRE

13 HDK Building Kindergarten Projections Actual Projections ACE JRE MCE PRE TRE

14 Secondary Projections by School Actual Projected BRMS CRMS MHS SHS

15 Secondary Projections by School Number of Students Projected by Year MHS SHS BRMS CRMS

16 10-Year Enrollment Projections by Level Elementary Schools Middle Schools High Schools 2,670 1,813 1, Total K ,334 2,369 2,405 2,480 2,533 2,632 2,642 2,659 2,664 2,670 Total ,359 1,374 1,365 1,339 1,338 1,280 1,351 1,387 1,481 1,485 Total ,955 1,939 1,929 1,869 1,850 1,876 1,827 1,829 1,782 1,813

17 Private School Enrollment 2017 Within District Boundaries St. Louis Allendale Columbia - 91 Home School - 45 Trinity Montessori - 44 Out of District Mc Quaid Harley Other - 99 Mercy - 69 Seton - 22 Sienna Catholic Academy - 14 Hillel - 10

18 6872 Private School Enrollment Blue = Private School Students Not Enrolled within PCSD Maroon = District Enrolled Students Including Out of District Placements

19 Total District Enrollment Including Projections Actual Enrollments Projected Enrollments Year Enrollment ,049 5,685 5,734 5,834 5,921 6,

20 Ethnicity American Indian Alaskan Native Black Hispanic Asian/ Pacific Islander Multiracial

21 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Ethnicity American Indian Alaskan Native Black Hispanic Asian/ Pacific Islander Multiracial White

22 FACTORS TO CONSIDER WHEN FORECASTING About 35 homes were built in the last year. New Construction in Pittsford by: Spall Morrell Pride Mark A safe trend to assume is that we will have 30 homes built per year for the next five years primarily located in the southern portion of Pittsford. Work has begun on a new 34 lot townhome community on Green Point Trail off West Jefferson Road near Locust Hill Country Club, these are patio homes geared towards empty nesters, so they should have little impact on our projections. The concept plan area south of the Thruway is still pending, nothing has been built. An area of growth still being considered 5 to 10 years from now includes a 175 unit apartment complex near the village on the canal. - Michelle Debyah, GIS Analyst, Town of Pittsford, 10/18/2017 1/9/2018

23 23 You are here = Potential Area of Development 1/9/2018

24 24 The concept plan area south of the Thruway is still pending, nothing has been built. 1/9/2018

25 25 Only expecting homes next year 1/9/2018

26 26 Only expecting 12 homes or townhouses next year 1/9/2018

27 27 TOWN OF PITTSFORD Number Percent Number Percent Total population 27, % 29, % SEX AND AGE Male 12, % 13, % Female 14, % 15, % Under 5 years 1, % 1, % 5 to 9 years 2, % 1, % 10 to 14 years 2, % 2, % 15 to 19 years 2, % 3, % 20 to 24 years 1, % 1, % 25 to 34 years 1, % 1, % 35 to 44 years 4, % 3, % 45 to 54 years 4, % 4, % 55 to 59 years 1, % 2, % 60 to 64 years 1, % 1, % 65 to 74 years 2, % 2, % 75 to 84 years 1, % 1, % 85 years and over % % CENSUS DATA Median age (years) years and over 20, % 22, % 21 years and over 18, % 20, % 62 years and over 5, % 6, % 65 years and over 4, % 5, % Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000; U.S. Census Bureau, /9/2018

28 28 Population Growth: Town vs. Village Number of Residents 1/9/2018

29 Town of Pittsford 8,469 18,441 21,052 23,009 25,801 28,050 28,413 28,964 29,382 29,719 Village of Pittsford 1,749 1,755 1,568 1,488 1,418 1,355 1,339 1,337 1,331 1,325 Population Growth: Town vs. Village Number of Residents 1/9/2018

30 30 Population Growth: Town vs. Village Percentage of Residents 1/9/2018

31 Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent Town of Pittsford Village of Pittsford 117.7% 14.2% 9.3% 12.1% 8.7% 1.3% 1.9% 1.4% 1.1% 0.3% -10.7% -5.1% -4.7% -4.4% -1.2% -0.1% -0.4% -0.5% Population Growth: Town vs. Village Percentage of Residents 1/9/2018

32 Summary Based on current projections, PCSD will show a gradual increase from 2017 to Projections by individual schools must be continually monitored. Our enrollment projections have been 99% accurate over the past ten years and 97% accurate over the past five years.

33 Discussion

Updated 11/4/2015. Carmel Clay Schools. Human Resources. Enrollment/ Demographics. Student Performance Data

Updated 11/4/2015. Carmel Clay Schools. Human Resources. Enrollment/ Demographics. Student Performance Data Updated 11/4/2015 Carmel Clay Schools Enrollment/ Demographics CES CWE MTE SRE WCE TME CLM CTE FDE OPE WBE PTE CAM CRM Human Resources Student Performance Data District-Level Data: Ethnicity English Language