Demographic Trends and Enrollment Forecasts

Transcription

1 Palo Alto Unified School District Demographic Trends and Enrollment Forecasts Shelley Lapkoff, Ph.D. Lapkoff & Gobalet Demographic Research, Inc. November 13, 2007

2 Today s Presentation District-wide Enrollment Forecast Types of Enrollment Migration Trends/Grade Progressions Births and Kindergarten Enrollments New Housing Forecast Results

3 Enrollment Categories VTP students SDC students: in district and out-of-district Other out-of-district Students from new housing Remainder students from existing PAUSD housing

4 Migration and Housing Turnover (Cohort Survival)

5 Start with today s students by grade, then age the students one grade K etc etc. some students leave, others enter

6 Grade Progression Differences of Residents between Fall 2006 and Fall 2007 Excludes Students from New Housing Number of Students K>1 1>2 2>3 3>4 4>5 5>6 6>7 7>8 8>9 9>10 10>11 11>12 Grade Progressions

7 Grade Progression Differences of Residents between Fall 2006 and Fall 2007 Excludes Students from New Housing Number of Students year Average K>1 1>2 2>3 3>4 4>5 5>6 6>7 7>8 8>9 9>10 10>11 11>12 Grade Progressions

8 Grade Progression Differences of Residents between Fall 2006 and Fall 2007 Excluding Students from New Housing Number of Students K>1 1>2 2>3 3>4 4>5 5>6 6>7 7>8 8>9 9>10 10>11 11>12 Grade Progressions

9 Elementary Grade Progressions Residents Only, Excluding Students from New Housing Grades K to 4 into Grades 1 to 5 81>82 82>83 83>84 84>85 85>86 86>87 87>88 88>89 89>90 90>91 91>92 92>93 93>94 94>95 95>96 96>97 97>98 98>99 99>00 00>01 01>02 02>03 03>04 04>05 05>06 06>07 Years Number of Students

10 Kindergarten Enrollment and Birth Trends

11 Number of Births to PAUSD Residents Based on Zip Code Birth Data; Excludes Stanford Births Year of Birth Number of Births

12 Number of Births to PAUSD Residents Based on Zip Code Birth Data; Excludes Stanford Births Fall 2008 K Cohort Year of Birth Number of Births

13 Resident Kindergarten Enrollment Excluding Stanford Kindergartners Excluding Students from New Housing, VTP and SDC Students 800 Number of Children Year of Kindergarten Enrollment

14 Births Compared to Kindergarten Enrollment Excluding Stanford Births and Stanford Kindergartners Excluding Students from New Housing and SDC Students Number of Children Births Comparison K Year of Kindergarten Enrollment

15 115% 110% 105% 100% 95% 90% 85% 80% 75% Kindergarten-Birth Ratio Year of Enrollment Kindergartners / Births 5 Yrs Prior Source of Birth Data: Zip Code Births available from the State

16 115% 110% 105% 100% 95% 90% 85% 80% 75% Kindergarten-Birth Ratio Year of Enrollment Kindergartners / Births 5 Yrs Prior Source of Birth Data: Zip Code Births available from the State

17 Kindergarten-Birth Ratio Low, Medium, and High Assumptions Kindergartners / Births 5 Yrs Prior 115% 110% 105% 100% 95% 90% 85% 80% 75% Source of Birth Data: Zip Code Births available from the State Year of Enrollment

18 Enrollment Impact of New Housing

19 Forecasts of Students from New Housing Multiply Number of Housing Units by the Student Yield Student Yield is the average number of students per housing unit

20 2007 Enrollments and Student Yields in Recently-Constructed Housing Unit Count # Students in 2007 Yield Stanford West Apts Oak Ct. Apts Summerhill SFUs Summerhill Condos Opportunity Center High Street Arbor Real-SFU Arbor Real-TH (U/C) Arbor Real-Condo (U/C) Arbor Real - Future* n.a. 7 Vantage/940 E. Meadow (U/C)

21 2007 Enrollments and Student Yields in Recently-Constructed Housing Unit Count # Students in 2007 Yield Stanford West Apts Oak Ct. Apts Summerhill SFUs Summerhill Condos Opportunity Center High Street Arbor Real-SFU Arbor Real-TH (U/C) Arbor Real-Condo (U/C) Arbor Real - Future* n.a. 7 Vantage/940 E. Meadow (U/C)

22 2007 Enrollments and Student Yields in Recently-Constructed Housing Unit Count # Students in 2007 Yield Stanford West Apts Oak Ct. Apts Summerhill SFUs Summerhill Condos Opportunity Center High Street Arbor Real-SFU Arbor Real-TH (U/C) Arbor Real-Condo (U/C) Arbor Real - Future* n.a. 7 Vantage/940 E. Meadow (U/C)

23 Future Housing Developments Specific projects, as indicated in the report (e.g. Classic Communities, JCC/Build, Elks Lodge) ABAG RHNA Regional Housing Needs Allocation Palo Alto may be required to zone more land for residential low to moderate income housing. However, housing does not actually need to be built; land must be zoned for residential use.

24 Enrollment Forecasts

25 Forecast method: Start with regular, resident enrollments Age students one year at a time Add (or subtract) migrants Add students from new housing Estimate kindergarten enrollment Add interdistrict, SDC, and VTP students

26 Elementary Enrollments Current enrollment is 4,974 Forecasts for : Low: 4,798 Medium: 5,278 High: 5,667

27 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Elementary Enrollment Forecasts (All Students Included) th grade moves to middle school Year Number of Students

28 Middle School Enrollments Current enrollment is 2,552 Forecasts for : Low: 2,602 Medium: 2,771 High: 2,810

29 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Middle School Enrollment Forecasts (All Students Included) th grade moves to middle school Year Number of Students

30 High School Enrollments Current enrollment is 3,584 Forecasts for : Low: 3,838 Medium: 4,070 High: 4,299

31 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 High School Enrollment Forecasts (All Students Included) Year Number of Students

32 Summary/Conclusions Families with children have always moved into Palo Alto, but during the last six years migration has increased substantially, especially among families with pre-school and elementary children. The Medium forecast assumes the recent high migration continues indefinitely. If these high migration trends continue, Palo Alto will experience substantial enrollment increases. Students from housing built in the 2000s now number 270. By 2012, the number of students from post 2000 housing is projected to be about 600, which includes only known housing projects.

33 Questions or Comments?