Sundance Associates 117 Greenvale Court Cherry Hill, NJ

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1 Enrollment Projection Update to Oct 2017 Enrollments by District and School for the 301 East Montgomery Ave. Ardmore, PA Prepared by Sundance Associates 117 Greenvale Court Cherry Hill, NJ Tel Fax December, 2017

2 TABLE of CONTENTS Page Introduction i Births 1 Residential Permitting: Historic & Proposed 2 Existing Residential Sales & the Recession 3 Comparative Permitting & Sales vs. Enrollments 4 Student Multipliers for New Housing 5 New Housing by Unit Type & Year 6 Students from New Housing 7 New Students by Development, Year and School 8 Cohort Survival Methodology & Adjustments 9 District-wide Enrollments 11 Grade K-5 Elementary Enrollments 12 Grade 6-8 Middle School Enrollments 13 Grade 9-12 High School Enrollments 14 District Comparative Enrollments 15 Belmont Hills ES Projections 16 Cynwyd ES Projections 17 Gladwyne ES Projections 18 Merion ES Projections 19 Penn Valley ES Projections 20 Penn Wynne ES Projection 21 Bala Cynwyd MS Projections 22 Welsh Valley MS Projections 23 Harriton HS Projections 24 Lower Merion HS Projections 25 APPENDIX Projection Worksheet Plus New Housing Worksheet Fall 2017 Updated Demographic Study

3 Introduction This projection is an annual update to the projections of November 2016 and the subsequent December 2016 adjustment for geo-coded births. The November 2017 Comprehensive Study should be consulted for overall methodology for Cohort Survival Enrollment Projections. In this study projections are made as in the December 2016 adjustment using School Year Births geocoded for Elementary School Attendance Areas. Births adjusted for the School Year, on a September to August basis, have a stronger correlation to the Kindergarten five years later, than does the calendar year births. School based projections are increased in accuracy using the Attendance Area births over the Average Percent of District method. Fall 2017 Updated Demographic Study i

4 School Year Births by School Attendance Area 5 Yrs Earlier Actual K Sch Yr Geographic Geographic Sch Years Cynwyd Merion Penn Val Penn Wy Gladwyn Bel Hls TOTAL Sep-Aug August 2007 births can enter school in Sept Yr Avg Yr Avg SOURCE: Montgomery County Planning Commission 559 Combo Avg 620 School Year Births Yr Avg Geo Sch Yr Yr Avg Yr Trend Births and Historic Enrollments are the two factors on which an enrollment projection is made. In this study School Year Births (September - August) that are geocoded to the District's elementary attendance area are used The data is provided by the Montgomery County Planning Commission and correlates best with the individual School based projections. That is the blue line on the chart. Fall 2017 Updated Enrollment Study 1

5 Residential Permits by Municipality Lower Merion Narberth Combined Residential Permits: Historic & Future < Permits Occupancies > Historic Future New Housing Construction, as evidenced by Residential Permitting levels is on the increase since Permits for approved housing total 1,519 units in the next 4 years. Each permit is for one housing unit. A Single Family house is one unit. A Townhouse Community or a Mid-rise Condominium will be permitted for multiple units. The timing of the permits, as illustrated on the chart, are as per the Developer's current plans for construction, sales and occupancy. Fall 2017 Updated Enrollment Study 2

6 Residential Sales and the 2008 Recession Lower Merion Residential Sales extrapolated NARBERTH Housing Sales extrapolated Combined Residential Sales Combined Low Merion Narberth Residential Sales decreased along with the 2008 Recession and began to rebound in The 2013 sales exceeded the year 2007 sales, before the start of the recession. Pent-up demand was met in 2013 and a sales decrease followed. The 2017 sales volume is extrapolated from Jan - Sept data, and is anticipated to be a record high. The recent 6-year average of sales is 871 per year and is more significant than the recent 6-year average of occupancy of new housing at 106 units per year, and still more significant than the 380 units per year that isplanned for occupancy in the next 4 years. Fall 2017 Updated Enrollment Study 3

7 Comparative Enrollment Factors Enrollment Enroll Delta Resid Sales RS Delta Permits Per Delta Comparative Enrollment Factors Enroll Change R Sales Change Permitting Enrollment in the 10-year historic period has a stronger correlation to existing housing Resales than to New Housing Permits. In this chart, the change in enrollment (blue) is compared to the change in residential sales (red), and the correlation is clear There appears to be little or no correlation with permitting for new construction (grey),...yet. The 2016 permitting is for "permits" such that occupancy would follow one year later, perhaps contributing to the 2017 enrollment increase. Additional years of new housing growth are needed to document the relationship. Fall 2017 Updated Enrollment Study 4

8 New School Age Children from New Housing To estimate the number of School Age Children (SAC) or the Public School Age Children (PSAC), multipliers for unit types and bedroom counts are applied to the number of units. After determination of the number of School Age Children, they are scheduled for entry into the school system based upon the construction and occupancy schedule. The source for the multipliers is Who Lives in Pennsylvania Housing, a Quick Guide to Pennsylvania Residential Demographic Multipliers by the Center for Urban Policy Research of the Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy at Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, as developed from the 2000 U. S. Census. Five different multipliers are used in this study for each Type of housing (Rental Apartments and Condominium) and number of Bedrooms. Application of the multipliers for unit types determines that 1,901 units over five years (beginning in year 2016) will generate 279 School Age Children and 268 Public School Age Children. However, only students from 2018 and forward are added to the projection. Application of the multipliers for unit types determines that 1,519 units over four years (beginning in year 2018) will generate 265 School Age Children and 258 Public School Age Children. All Public Type# Bdrms SAC SAC Apt Studio Apt 1 Bdrm Apt 2 Bdrm Apt 3 Bdrm Condo 1 Bdrm Condo 2 Bdrm TH 3 Bdrm Twin 3 Bdrm Fall 2017 Updated Enrollment Study 5

9 Future Housing by Unit Type & Year Unit to Sep Type Bdrms Count Total IN CONSTRUCTION 600 Righters Ferry Rd Apt 1 Bdrm and Occupancy Phase 1 & Ph 2 Apt 2 Bdrm K Kyle-O'Neill Penn Rd Apt 1 Bdrm C Houder-Haverford Prop Apt 2 Bdrm Apt 3 Bdrm E. Montgomery Ave TH 3 Bdrm M Rayer Cricket Ave Apt 1 Bdrm S Sutton-Dranoff Apt 2 Bdrm Monument Ave Apt Studio J O'Connell-Roseland Apt 1 Bdrm Apt 2 Bdrm Righters Ferry Rd Apt 1 Bdrm R Sudall-Nolan Prop Apt 2 Bdrm Cricket Ave TH 3 Bdrm J Kildea-Rockwell Twin 3 Bdrm Union Ave. Apt 2 Bdrm Fijan-Cross Prop Apt 3 Bdrm IN CONSTRUCTION RECENT APPROVED Cricket Ave. Apt 1 Bdrm P Spain-BM Leasing Apt 2 Bdrm Lancaster Ave. Apt 1 Bdrm Fijan-Cross Prop Apt 2 Bdrm RECENT APPROVED E. City Ave. Apt O Bdrm PENDING A Bottaro-FRIT Apt 1 Bdrm PRELIMINARY Apt 2-2+ Bdrm E. Montgomery AvCondo 1 Bdrm K Traynor Condo 2 Bdrm &11 Union Ave. Apt 1 Bdrm ,5,7,9 Cynwyd Apt 2 Bdrm Fijan-Cross Prop ,108,114&120 Apt 1 Bdrm W Lancaster Ave Apt 2 Bdrm Justin Hopkins Conway Ave, N TH 3 Bdrm Vince Sposato Elmwood, N Apt 1 Bdrm Jason Gordon Apt 2 Bdrm TOTAL PENDING/PREL GRAND TOTAL UNITS Fall 2017 Updated Enrollment Study 6

10 Future PUBLIC School Age Children PSAC to Sep Type Bdrms /Unit Total IN CONSTRUCTION 600 Righters Ferry Rd Apt 1 Bdrm and Occupancy Phase 1 & Ph 2 Apt 2 Bdrm K Kyle-O'Neill Penn Rd Apt 1 Bdrm C Houder-Haverford Prop Apt 2 Bdrm Apt 3 Bdrm E. Montgomery Ave TH 3 Bdrm M Rayer Cricket Ave Apt 1 Bdrm S Sutton-Dranoff Apt 2 Bdrm Monument Ave Apt Studio J O'Connell-Roseland Apt 1 Bdrm Apt 2 Bdrm Righters Ferry Rd Apt 1 Bdrm R Sudall-Nolan Prop Apt 2 Bdrm Cricket Ave TH 3 Bdrm J Kildea-Rockwell Twin 3 Bdrm Union Ave. Apt 2 Bdrm Fijan-Cross Prop Apt 3 Bdrm IN CONSTRUCTION RECENT APPROVED Cricket Ave. Apt 1 Bdrm P Spain-BM Leasing Apt 2 Bdrm Lancaster Ave. Apt 1 Bdrm Fijan-Cross Prop Apt 2 Bdrm RECENT APPROVED E. City Ave. Apt O Bdrm PENDING A Bottaro-FRIT Apt 1 Bdrm PRELIMINARY Apt 2-2+ Bdrm E. Montgomery AvCondo 1 Bdrm K Traynor Condo 2 Bdrm &11 Union Ave. Apt 1 Bdrm ,5,7,9 Cynwyd Apt 2 Bdrm Fijan-Cross Prop ,108,114&120 Apt 1 Bdrm W Lancaster Ave Apt 2 Bdrm Justin Hopkins Conway Ave, N TH 3 Bdrm Vince Sposato Elmwood, N Apt 1 Bdrm Jason Gordon Apt 2 Bdrm TOTAL PENDING/PREL GRAND TOTAL New STUDENTS Fall 2017 Updated Enrollment Study 7

11 Public School Age Children by Development, Year and School Total PSAC 600 Righters Ferry Rd Union Cynwyd Monument Ave Righters Ferry Rd E. City Ave Union Ave Cynwyd 6 Lancaster Ave /8/14/20 W Lancaster Cricket Ave Cricket Cricket Ave Penn Wynne 198 Elmwood Merion Cynwyd Penn Wynne Merion Sub-total Bala Cynwyd MS Lower Merion HS Total PSAC 424 Conway Ave Belmont Hills 331 Penn Rd E. Montgomery Ave E. Montgomery Ave Penn Valley Belmont Hills Penn Valley Sub-total Welsh Valley MS Harriton HS District Sum by Year New Housing is mapped by location (below) and organized by attendance areas (above). Elementary summaries of students added by year are noted in the red side titles, and the Middle School/High School added students are in blue side titles. Fall 2017 Updated Enrollment Study 8

12 Cohort Survival Methodology An Introduction Cohort Survival is the name given to the method of projecting enrollments which is recommended by the Pennsylvania Department of Education. The most important terms, concepts and methodology are illustrated herein. Cohort Survival projections are based on historic enrollment and birth data in the school district and incorporate six years of demographic data. They are considered very reliable where trends are expected to continue, without significant change in housing or curriculum. Enrollment projections have been made using the Cohort Survival method. Cohort is the name given to the common groups of children originally born in a given year and progressing, together, through the school system, one grade level to the next. Survival Ratios refer to the number of students from one year and grade level who survive to or enter the next grade level the following year. For example, in the sample partial table in the side bar, historic enrollments show 672 students in 1st Grade in year , following a 454 student Kindergarten in year This yields a Kindergarten to First Grade Survival Ratio of (or ). Another expression of the Survival Ratio would be that 148% of the Kindergarten students survived to 1st Grade. Similar calculations are made for survival from Births Five Years Earlier to Kindergarten, and for each and every grade level transition in each and every year of historical enrollments which are used. In general, six years of historic data will yield five Survival Ratios for each grade level change, Birth to K, K to 1, Grade 1 to Grade 2, etc. Historic Enrollments Births 1st 2nd 3rd School Sch Yrs. K Gr. Gr. Gr. Year Ago "s" "s" "s" "s" HISTORIC DATA Yr Average Survival Rate The Average Survival Ratio is then calculated for each grade level change. In the side-bar example is the 6-year average Kindergarten to Grade 1 ratio and is the 6-year Grade 1 to Grade 2 Survival Ratio. The projections use the current school year enrollments, at the bottom of the Historic chart, as a base year. The Averaged Cohort Survival Ratios are applied to those base year enrollments and to the actual and estimated births, and projected into the next year, one grade level higher. In the side-bar example 416 Kindergarten students in survive at a rate of as a First Grade of 597 students. This similar projection is made across all grade levels for a 5-year period. Projected Enrollments 5-YR PROJECTIONS Yr Avg Finally, the individual grade level enrollment projections are summed across each year to determine district-wide enrollments in that year. NOTE: The full worksheets for the standard District projection and the adjusted for accelerated housing projection can be found in the Appendix. Fall 2017 Updated Enrollment Study 9

13 Cohort Survival Methodology Adjustments to Standard Methods for High School Choice and for Accelerated New Housing High School Choice In previous studies an adjustment to the Cohort Survival Rates for Grades 9 to 12 were made due to the High School Choice program. Sufficient years have passed such that the program is impacting five of the six historic years of enrollments and an adjustment is no longer necessary. New Housing As previously determined, 272 students are added to the projection from new housing. They are added in specific years according to the Developers plans, and in specific geographies. In this sample from the District-wide projection, 35 students are added in the second year of the projection. 35 students are evenly distributed across all 13 grade levels at the rate of 2.73 students. This is rounded to 3 on the worksheet. The calculation is then made as follows; 424 Kindergarden students are survived at a rate of 1.436, to which is added 2.73 students to project a First Grade class of 611. School Level Projections Projections are made at the District, Grade Level Organization and Individual School levels. The District and Grade Level projections are identical in results. Births 1st 2nd 3rd Scho o l 5 Yrs. K Gr. Gr. Gr. Year Ago "s" "s" "s" "s" 5-YR P ROJECTIONS P LUS NEW HOUSING + R esid R esid R esid R esid R esid The school level projections, due to their smaller enrollment size, are less accurate than the overall District projections. However, they are useful in determining the future enrollments at the school. The school level projections are checked against a Sum of All Individual Schools worksheet that shows a difference of an average of -2.5 students per grade such that the school level projections are slightly less than the district projection. The first year projection is 1 student less, while the 5th year projection is about 4 students per school less than the District projection. Fall 2017 Updated Enrollment Study 10

14 Lower Merion District-wide Enrollments K Historic Projected Extended Lower Merion District-wide 272 Public School Students from new housing TOTAL Average Change %Chg Historic , , , ,341 8, , , % Projected , , ,261 9, , ,594 1, % Extended , , ,644 9, , , % Fall 2017 Updated Enrollment Study 11

15 Elementary K-Grade 5 Enrollments 125 Students from new housing to Public School at the elementary level total K-5 Period Period Standard Delta k-4 PKK K TOTAL Average Change Method Historic ,399 3, ,508 3, ,659 3, ,830 3,669 3, ,779 3, , % 3, Projected ,861 3, ,954 3, ,986 3,951 3, ,974 3, , % 3, Extended ,970 3, ,982 3, ,949 3,932 3, ,881 3, , % 3, Elementary K-Gr 5 Enrollments Historic Projected Extended Fall 2017 Updated Enrollment Study 12

16 Middle School Grade 6-8 Enrollments 63 Students from new housing to Public Schools at the Middle School level. Gr 6-8 Period Period Cap1= UG TOTAL Average Change Historic ProjectedExtendedCap1=2329 Historic , , , , , , , % Projected , , , , , % Extended , , , , , % Middle School Gr 6-8 Enrollments Historic 2000 Projected 1500 Extended Fall 2017 Updated Enrollment Study 13

17 High School Grade 9-12 Enrollments 84 Students from new housing at the High School level Gr 9-12 Period Period UG TOTAL Average Change Historic Projected Historic , , , , , , % Projected , , , , , % 3260 Extended ,320 ##### ,400 ##### , ##### , , % ##### 4500 High School Grade 9-12 Enrollments Historic 2000 Projected 1500 Extended Fall 2017 Updated Enrollment Study 14

18 Comparative Enrollments by Grade Level Organization K-5 Gr 6-8 Gr 9-12 TOTAL Historic HIGH 5 Yr Projection Projected LOW Extended Comparative Enrollments by Grade Level Organization PK-Gr 5 Gr 6-8 Gr Fall 2017 Updated Enrollment Study 15

19 Belmont Hills ES Enrollment by Year Historic Projected Extended Belmont Hills Elementary School 4 Students from new housing K-5 Standard Delta K TOTAL Average Change Method Historic % 511 Projected % Extended % Fall 2017 Updated Enrollment Study 16

20 Cynwyd ES Enrollment by Year Historic Projected Extended Cynwyd Elementary School 75 Students from new housing K-5 K TOTAL Average Change Historic % Projected % Extended % Fall 2017 Updated Enrollment Study 17

21 Gladwyne ES Enrollment by Year Historic Projected Extended Gladwyne Elementary School 0 Students from new housing K-5 Standard Delta PKSE K TOTAL Average Change Method Historic % 733 Projected % Extended % Fall 2017 Updated Enrollment Study 18

22 Merion ES Enrollment by Year Historic Projected Extended Merion Elementary School 1 Students from new housing K-5 Standard Delta PKSE K TOTAL Average Change Method Historic % 603 Projected % Extended % Fall 2017 Updated Enrollment Study 19

23 Penn Valley ES Enrollment by Year Historic Projected Extended Penn Valley Elementary School 23 Students from new housing Standard PKSE K TOTAL Average Change Method Historic % 681 Projected % Extended % Delta BBS54:CJ101 Fall 2017 Updated Enrollment Study 20

24 Penn Wynne ES Enrollment by Year Historic Projected Extended Penn Wynne Elementary School 17 Students from new housing K-5 Standard Delta PKS K TOTAL Average Change Method Historic % 763 Projected % Extended % Fall 2017 Updated Enrollment Study 21

25 Bala Cynwyd MS Enrollment by Year Historic Projected Extended Bala-Cynwyd Middle School 47 Students from new housing 6-8 Standard Delta UG TOTAL Average Change Method Historic , % 1,012 Projected ,103 1, ,134 1, ,181 1,159 1, ,193 1, , % 1,183 3 Extended ,156 1, ,144 1, ,212 1,200 1, ,245 1, , % 1, Fall 2017 Updated Enrollment Study 22

26 Welsh Valley MS Enrollment by Year Historic Projected Extended Welsh Valley Middle School 16 Students from new housing SE TOTAL Average Change Historic , , % Projected , , ,099 1, , , % Extended , , ,111 1, , , % Fall 2017 Updated Enrollment Study 23

27 Harriton High School Enrollment by Year Historic Projected Extended Harriton High School 21 Students from new housing SE TOTAL Average Change Historic % Projected % Extended % Fall 2017 Updated Enrollment Study 24

28 Lower Merion HS Enrollment by Year Historic Projected Extended Lower Merion High School 62 Students from new housing SE TOTAL Average Change Historic % Projected % Extended % Fall 2017 Updated Enrollment Study 25

29 Standard Cohort-Survival Enrollment Projection Worksheet DISTRICT NAME: COUNTY: Montgomery DATA ISSUES: Enrollments are from the 10th Day reports. "s" = survival rate Births 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th K-5 K-5 PK PK PK PK-5 6th 7th 8th th 10th 11th 12th PK K-12 K-12 PK-12 School 5 Sch Yrs. K Gr. Gr. Gr. Gr. Gr. Subt. EUG Total SCSE 3 yrs. 4yrs. Total Gr. Gr. Gr. Subt. MUG Total Gr. Gr. Gr. Gr. Subt. SUG Total Subt. Subt. Total Total Year Ago "s" "s" "s" "s" "s" "s" (excl. PK) "s" "s" "s" "s" "s" "s" "s" excl. SCSE w/ SCSE HISTORIC DATA Yr Average % Pop % 1Yr 3&4YO % 1Yr 4YO % Pop % Pop Survival Rate Yr 0.00% 0% 0% Yr 0.00% Yr 0.00% Change # Students Change % Students 13% 13% 13% 14% 14% 9% 9% 12% 5-YR PROJECTIONS Yr Avg Change # Students Change % Students 2% 2% 2% 11% 11% 18% 18% 8.9% KEY to Number Colors The above information is prepared and certified by a qualified demographer. 99 Standard number with no modifications to methodology 99 Provisional, but uncertified births from the PA Department of Health Firm Name: Sundance Associates 117 Greenvale Ct. Cherry Hill NJ Births projected as an average of the prior 6 years, including provisional data and projected students resulting from this "less accurate" average Name: George B. Sundell Tel GSundell@sundanceassoc.com 99 Students per Grade Level added for residential development Signature: Date: November 1, YR PROJECTIONS NOT CONSIDERED RELIABLE Yr Avg Continued Change # Students Change % Students -1% -1% -1% 2% 2% 3% 3% 1% Fall 2017 Updated Enrollment Study 26

30 Adjusted for Impact of New Housing Cohort-Survival Enrollment Projection Worksheet - District DISTRICT NAME: COUNTY: Montgomery FALL REPORT AND Enrollments are from the 10th Day reports. "s" = survival rate Births 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th K-5 K-5 PK PK PK PK-5 6th 7th 8th th 10th 11th 12th PK K-12 K-12 PK-12 School 5 Yrs. K Gr. Gr. Gr. Gr. Gr. Subt. SCSE Total SCSE 3 yrs. 4yrs. Total Gr. Gr. Gr. Subt. SCSE Total Gr. Gr. Gr. Gr. Subt. SCSE Total Subt. Subt. Total Total Year Ago "s" "s" "s" "s" "s" "s" (excl. PK) "s" "s" "s" "s" "s" "s" "s" excl. SCSE w/ SCSE V to 2 decimal places 5-YR PROJECTIONS PLUS NEW HOUSING + Resid Resid Resid Resid Resid Change # Students ,004 Change % Students 4% 4% 4% 14% 14% 21% 21% 12% New Children 6-10-YR PROJECTIONS PLUS NEW HOUSING NOT CONSIDERED RELIABLE Cum Yr Add + Resid Resid Resid Resid Resid New Children Cum Yr Add Change # Students Change % Students -3% -3% -3% 1% 1% 4% 4% 0% Fall 2017 Updated Enrollment Study 27