Facilities Plan Oldham County Sewer District Chapter 5 Population Projections

Transcription

1 Facilities Plan Oldham County Sewer District Chapter 5 Projections Background The population information for Oldham County presented in this section was developed from data secured from the Kentuckiana Regional Planning and Development Agency (KIPDA) that was based upon information from the University of Louisville Urban Studies Center. The population projections were developed in five-year increments for the period from to Where applicable, modifications have been made to reflect updated data for the planning period of through and to address the OCSD planning area. Historical Trends Oldham County has the distinction of being one of the fastest growing counties in the Commonwealth of Kentucky. Between 1970 and 1980, Oldham County experienced it greatest population growth since its formation in During this ten-year period, the County s population increased by percent from 14,687 persons to 27,787 persons. This population increase made it the fastest growing County in the Commonwealth. From 1980 to 1990 the population increased percent to 33,263, ranking the County second in the Commonwealth in population growth. And from 1990 to the population increased percent to 46,185, ranking the County fifth in the Commonwealth in population growth. Table 5-1 presents the historical growth experienced by Oldham County. Table 5-1 Oldham County Growth Source: Year Percent Change , , % , % , % 46, % United States Bureau of the Census, Census of ; Kentucky State Data Center 05369/ OMNI/Quest 5-1

2 There are six incorporated cities in Oldham County: Crestwood, Goshen, LaGrange, Orchard Grass Hills, Park Lake, Pewee Valley and River Bluff. LaGrange and Pewee Valley are the oldest cities in the county, having been incorporated in 1840 and 1837, respectively. The remaining five cities have all been incorporated since the 1970 census. All of the incorporated communities, except for LaGrange, are located within the 201 Facilities Planning for the Oldham County Sewer District. Table 5-2 provides current and past census data, if available, for the seven incorporated cities within Oldham County Table 5-2 Incorporated Cities Historical City Crestwood * * 531 1,435 1, % 39% Goshen * * * * LaGrange 2,168 1,713 2,971 3,853 5,676-21% 73% 30% 47% Orchard Grass * * 1,047 1,058 1, % -3% Park Lake¹ * * * % Pewee Valley ,283 1,436 8% 3% 31% 12% River Bluff * * * % *Not Incorporated at time of Census ¹ Park Lake was dissolved in 2006 and merged with Crestwood ² A small portion of the City of Prospect is located within Oldham County Source: United States Bureau of the Census, Census of ; Kentucky State Data Center The number of housing units has increased in conjunction with the population growth. During the most recent 10-year growth period from 1990 to the population growth was percent while the growth in housing units was 39.2 percent. Future Projections Future population projections were secured from the Kentuckiana Regional Planning and Development Agency (KIPDA) for Oldham County. The data was originally developed by the University of Louisville Urban Studies Center and represents the official population projection for the County. projections were developed for the County for the period from to 2030 in 5-year increments. To determine population projections for the 62 subareas that comprise Oldham County, data from KIPDA that showed the population projections by Traffic Zones (TAZs) was also secured. The TAZs (43 areas) were used in conjunction with the subareas (62 areas) to determine population projections 05369/ OMNI/Quest 5-2

3 for the subareas. Initially a population density was developed for each of the TAZs. Next the TAZ map was superimposed on the subarea map to determine which TAZs comprised each of the subareas. The portion of each TAZ comprising a given subarea was multiplied by its corresponding population density and then all areas were summed to determine that subarea s population. This process was used for each of the subareas for each of the fiveyear increments to determine the population projections for the subareas. The Oldham County population projections are presented in Table 5-3. The table shows the population projections for the period from to by five-year increments. The data is also presented by watershed and subarea. The table also presents population projections for the LaGrange Utilities Commission facilities planning area / OMNI/Quest 5-3

4 Table 5-3 Oldham County Projections by Watershed and Subarea Ohio River Watershed (Acres) Subarea BC 1, DH 3, EC EC EC EC , EC , EC.1.2 1, EC.2 1, HU 2, , , , , , , MB 1, OH.1 1, OH.2 1, OH.3 3, OH.4 1, , OH PC PC PC PC , PC , PO 3, , , , , , , TC 2, , , Ohio River Watershed Totals 35, , , , , , , / OMNI/HDR Quest 5-4

5 Table 5-3 (continued) Oldham County Projections by Watershed and Subarea Harrods Creek Watershed (Acres) Subarea CC 1, , , , , , DC 1, DC DC.1.1 1, DC.1.2 1, DC.2 2, , , HC HC.1 2, , HC.1.1 2, HC.1.2 2, HI NH 3, NH.1 2, NH NH , NH NH , NH , NH.1.2 1, NH NH.2.1 1, , , , , NH.2.2 2, , , , , , SH SH.1 9, , , , , , Harrods Creek Watershed Totals 48, , , , , , , / OMNI/HDR Quest 5-5

6 Table 5-3 (continued) Oldham County Projections by Watershed and Subarea Floyds Fork Watershed Floyds Fork Watershed Totals (Acres) Subarea AC 2, , , , , , , AR 2, , , , , , , CF 3, , , , , , , CF.1 2, , , , , , , CF.2 3, , , , , , , FF FF.1 3, , , , , , , FF.1.1 3, FF , FF FF GR NF 1, NF.1 2, NF.2 1, , , , , , , , OCSD TOTALS 115, , , , , , LUC Facilities Planning NH NH NH NH.1.2 1, , , , , , , NH CF.1 3, , , , , , , CF.2 2, , , , , , , FF NF LUC TOTALS 10, , , , , , , COUNTYWIDE TOTALS 126, , , , , , , / OMNI/HDR Quest 5-6