Enrollment Projections Preliminary Findings for the Council Rock School District 30 N. Chancellor St. Newtown, Pa

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1 Enrollment Projections Preliminary Findings for the 30 N. Chancellor St. Newtown, Pa Prepared by ~~~~~~~~~ SUNDANCE ~~~~~~~ ~~~~~ Sundance Associates 117 Greenvale Court Cherry Hill, NJ Tel Fax November 16, 2017

2 TABLE of CONTENTS Page Notes on Methodology Live Births by Municipality, Calendar & School Year 1 Building Permits by Municipality Table 2 Residential Sales History 3 Residential Sales Projection & New Students 4 District wide Enrollment 5 Elementary Enrollments 6 Middle School Enrollments 7 High School Enrollments 8 Comparative Enroll by Grade Level Organization 9 Churchville ES Enrollments 10 Goodnoe ES Enrollments 11 Hillcrest ES Enrollments 12 Holland ES Enrollments 13 M Welch ES Enrollments 14 Newtown ES Enrollments 15 Richboro ES Enrollments 16 Rolling Hills ES Enrollments 17 S Feinstone ES Enrollments 18 Wrightstown ES Enrollments 19 Holland MS Enrollments 20 Newtown MS Enrollments 21 Richboro MS Enrollments 22 High School North Enrollments 23 High School South Enrollments 24 ~~~~~~~~~ SUNDANCE ~~~~~~~ ~~~~~ Enrollment Study

3 NOTES ON METHODOLOGY The Base projection is made using the average of the most recent 2 years of grade level Survival Ratios, ay ALL grade levels. The Alternate projection is made using the 5 year grade level Survival Ratios except for Birth to Kindergarten and Kindergarten to First Grade, for which the recent 2 year average is used. The Birth to Kindergarten is a serious anomaly at and needs additional discernment and analysis. It is noteworthy that 58% of the difference in last years projection and the actual enrollment for school year is found in Kindergarten and 1st Grade. ENROLLMENT K EUG MUG SUG Total Actual Difference % 13% 5% 16% -5% -13% 3% 3% -1% -16% 22% 11% -3% 9% -9% 20% 100% SURVIVAL RATIOS B:K K:1 1:2 2:3 3:4 4:5 5:6 6:7 7:8 8:9 9:10 10:11 11:12 Actual ~~~~~~~~~ SUNDANCE ~~~~~~~ ~~~~~ Enrollment Study

4 Live Births by Municipality by Calendar Year Northampton Twp Newtown Township Upper Makefield Twp Newton Borough Wrightstown Twp CRSD Combined Calendar Year Births CRSD Combined School Year Births Births Yr Trend Yr Avg Births Yr Trend Yr Avg Enrollment Study

5 Total Housing Unit Building Permits for: ; Combined Municipalities Total Units Single-Family Multi-Family Combined Residential Permits Housing Unit Building Permits for: NEWTOWN BOROUGH, PA (Bucks County) Total Units Single-Family Multi-Family Housing Unit Building Permits for: NEWTOWN TOWNSHIP, PA (Bucks County) Total Units Single-Family Multi-Family Housing Unit Building Permits for: NORTHAMPTON TOWNSHIP, PA (Bucks County) Total Units Single-Family Multi-Family Housing Unit Building Permits for: UPPER MAKEFIELD TOWNSHIP, PA (Bucks County) Total Units Single-Family Multi-Family Housing Unit Building Permits for: WRIGHTSTOWN TOWNSHIP, PA (Bucks County) Total Units Single-Family Multi-Family Combined Yr Avg Residential Permits by Municipality Newtown Twp Upper Makefield Northampton Wrightstown Newtown Boro Enrollment Study

6 Newtown Borough Newtown Twp Northampton Upper Makefield Wrightstown Residential Sales Northampton Newtown Twp Upper Makefield Newtown Boro Wrightstown Combined Residential Sales Enrollment Study

7 =4.39% of Total Units Yr Avg = 4.19% Enrollment & Residential Sales Change 3.4% of Total Units % of Total Units Recession Recovery rate is.0341 Students per unit sold Enrollment begins to increase Res Sales E Delta 2010 Res Sales Future Future E Change Enrollment Study

8 Council Rock District Wide Enrollment Projection All Schools Period to Period K SEK5 SE68 SE912 TOTAL Average Change Alt , , , ,982 11, , , % , , ,109 11, , , % , , ,454 11, , , % District Wide Enrollments K Alternate Enrollment Study

9 Council Rock Elementary K-Grade 6 Enrollments K-6 K-Gr 6 Period Period 6th SE K SE TOTAL Average Change Alt , , , ,410 5, , , % , , Div by ,635 5, , , equals , % , , ,709 5, , , % 2027 total 6500 Elementary K-Gr 6 Enrollments Cap=6243 Alternate Enrollment Study

10 Council Rock Middle School Grade 7-8 Enrollments 7-8 Gr 7-8 Period Period 7 8 SE TOTAL Average Change Alt , , , , , , % , , , , , % , , , , , % Middle School Gr 7-8 Enrollments Cap2329 Alternate Enrollment Study

11 Council Rock High School Grade 9-12 Enrollments Gr 9-12 Period Period UG TOTAL Average Change Alt , , , , , , % , , , , , % , , , , , % High School Grade 9-12 Enrollments Alt 2500 Enrollment Study

12 Council Rock Comparative Enrollments by Grade Level Organization K-Gr 6 Gr 7-8 Gr 9-12 TOTAL , , , ,982 Projection Period , ,949 HIGH , ,085 LOW , , , , , , , , Comparative Enrollments by Grade Level Organization K-Gr 6 Gr 7-8 Gr Enrollment Study

13 Churchville ES Enrollment by Year Cap701 Alternate 450 Churchville Elementary School Churchville Elementary School Sections K K-6 SE K TOTALAverage Change K TOTAL % Alt Alt % % Enrollment Study

14 Goodnoe ES Enrollment by Year Cap=864 Alt 550 Goodnoe Elementary School Goodnoe Elementary School Sections 5 children from new housing K K-6 SE K TOTALAverage Change Chg % K TOTAL % Alt Alt % % Enrollment Study

15 Hillcrest ES Enrollment by Year Cap=514 Alternate Hillcrest Elementary School Hillcrest Elementary School Sections 4 children from new housing K K-6 SE K Total Avg Chg % Chg K TOTAL % Alt Alt % % Enrollment Study

16 Holland ES Enrollment by Year Cap=432 Alt Holland Elementary School Holland Elementary School Sections 0 children from new housing K K-6 SE K Total Avg Chg % Chg K TOTAL % Alt Alt % % Enrollment Study

17 M Welch ES Enrollment by Year Cap=706 Alt 450 M Welch Elementary School M Welch Elementary School Sections 11 PSAC from new housing K K-6 SE K Total Avg Chg % Chg K TOTAL % Alt Alt % % Enrollment Study

18 Newtown ES Enrollment by Year Cap=817 Alternate Newtown Elementary School Newtown Elementary School Sections 1 PSAC from new housing K K-6 SE K Total Avg Chg % Chg K TOTAL % Alt Alt % % Enrollment Study

19 Richboro ES Enrollment by Year Cap=491 Alternate Richboro Elementary School Richboro Elementary School Sections 0 PSAC from new housing K K-6 SE K Total Avg Chg % Chg K TOTAL % Alt Alt % % Enrollment Study

20 Rolling Hills ES Enrollment by Year Cap=515 Alt Rolling Hills Elementary School Rolling Hills Elementary School Sections 0 PSAC from new housing K-6 ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### K-6 SE K Total Avg Chg % Chg K TOTAL % Alt Alt % % Enrollment Study

21 S. Feinstone ES Enrollment by Year Cap= S. Feinstone Elementary School S. Feinstone Elementary School Sections 0 PSAC from new housing K K-6 SE K Total Avg Chg % Chg K TOTAL % Alt Alt % % Enrollment Study

22 Wrightstown ES Enrollment by Year Cap=310 Alt Wrightstown Elementary School Wrightstown Elementary School Sections 43 PSAC from new housing K K-6 SE K Total Avg Chg % Chg K TOTAL % Alt Alt % % Enrollment Study

23 Holland MS Enrollment by Year Alternate Holland Middle School SE 7-8 TOTAL Avg Chg Chg % % Alt % % Enrollment Study

24 Newtown MS Enrollment by Year Alternate 550 Newtown Middle School UG TOTALAverage Change % Alt % % Enrollment Study

25 Richboro MS Enrollment by Year Alternate Richboro Middle School SETOTALAverage Change % Alt % % Enrollment Study

26 High School North Enrollment by Year Alt High School North SE TOTALAverage Change % Alt , , , , % 1, % Enrollment Study

27 High School South Enrollment by Year Alternate High School South SE TOTALAverage Change % Alt , , , , % 1, % Enrollment Study