Demographic Update October 20, 2016

Transcription

1 Leander I.S.D. Demographic Update October 20, 2016

2 Population & Survey Analysts L.I.S.D. Demographic Trends Housing Projections Ratios: Students per Household Projected Student Enrollment Long Range Planning

3 Numeric Change Total in Student Enrollment (Pre-PEIMS) Enrollment 4 th Week Survey, Fall to Fall 2016

4 Percent Change Total in Student Enrollment (Pre-PEIMS) Enrollment 4 th Week Survey, Fall to Fall 2016

5 Numeric Change in Student Total Enrollment Enrollment (Pre-PEIMS) 4 th Week Survey, Fall to Fall 2015

6 Percent Change in Student Total Enrollment Enrollment (Pre-PEIMS) 4 th Week Survey, Fall to Fall 2015

7 Past Growth Rates 40,000 Enrollment 35,000 30,000 25,000 20, % 3.22%3.11% 5.58% 6.83% 7.37% 9.12% 2.15% 2.62%2.50% 15,

8 Year KN as a Percentage of Total Enrollment Leander % KN Texas % KN Leander's Rank % 7.65% 6th % 7.76% 5th % 7.68% 17th % 7.58% 22nd % 7.46% 34th % 7.57% 38th % 7.43% 48th % 7.11% 37th % * Of 62 Districts with 20,000 or more students

9 Historical Size of KN Class * Of 62 Districts with 20,000 or more students

10 Growth/Decline Total in Enrollment KN (Pre-PEIMS) 4 th Week Fall 2014 Survey, to Fall 2015

11 Growth/Decline in KN Total Enrollment (Pre-PEIMS) 4 th Fall 2010 Week Survey, to Fall 2015

12 Kindergarten Enrollment vs. Births

13 School 1st grade 5th grade Difference (1st-5th) % Difference Bagdad % Block House Creek % Bush % Camacho % Cox % Cypress % Deer Creek % Faubion % Giddens % Grandview Hills % Knowles % Mason % Naumann % Parkside % Plain % Pleasant Hill % Reagan % Reed % River Place % River Ridge % Rutledge % Steiner Ranch % Westside % Whitestone % Winkley % Total 2,669 2, % Resident 1 st vs 5 th Grade Students by School Fall 2016 Larger 1 st Grade = growing (9 schools) Larger 5 th Grade = declining (14 schools)

14 Deceleration in Growth The past few years enrollment reflected a deceleration in growth. Why? Fewer younger students no growth in KN in 6 of the past 7 years Fewer younger families moving into new homes Lack of regeneration in built-out subdivisions 44% built-out or active, & 34% non-buildable (in parks, preserves, conservation, and water) These changes in trends do NOT mean that growth in Leander I.S.D. is stopping, but, like many other large, upper SES districts, it has slowed.

15 Fastest Growth Districts in Texas (most students added between and )

16 Unique Demographic Characteristics Leander I.S.D. Low Economically Disadvantaged population (18.59%) [58.93% in Texas] Leander ISD ranked 3 rd in Texas (in districts of 20,000+) High STAAR passage rate (84%) [73.3% in Texas] Leander ISD ranked 9 th in Texas (in districts of 20,000+) Highly educated population (49% have bachelor s degree) [43% in Austin] High median income level ($86,893) [$67,195 in the Austin metro area]

17 Private and Charter Schools Current Enrollment From LISD in KN-12th Enrollment in 5 years From LISD in KN-12th Austin International School PK3-5th AUSTIN DISCOVERY SCHOOL-Charter K-8th Cedar Park Montessori School 18mos- 6th CEDAR PARK CHARTER ACADEMY - Charter PK-12th Cedar Park Charter Academy - Charter (former Leander Charter) PK - 12th CEDARS INTERNATIONAL ACADEMY - Charter PK-8th CHAPARRAL STAR ACADEMY - Charter K-12th EAST AUSTIN COLLEGE PREP - Charter 2nd-6th Founder's Classical Academy - Charter K-11th Gateway College Prep School - Charter K-12th 1, , Harbor Christian Academy 2nd- 12th HARMONY SCHOOL OF INNOVATION - Charter K-5th HARMONY SCHOOL OF POLITICAL SCIENCE - Charter Grades Current Enrollment Projected Enrollment K-12th

18 Private and Charter Schools (cont d) Current Enrollment From LISD in KN-12th Enrollment in 5 years From LISD in KN-12th HARMONY SCHOOL OF SCIENCE - Charter K-5th HARMONY SCIENCE ACADEMY - Charter K-8th HARMONY SCIENCE ACADEMY NORTH AUSTIN - Charter 6th- 12th PK - Hill Country Christian School of Austin 12th Holy Family Catholic School PK4-8th KIPP AUSTIN COMUNIDAD - Charter K-4th MAGNOLIA MONTESSORI FOR ALL - Charter PK-4th MERIDIAN WORLD SCHOOL LLC - Charter K-12th 1, , NYOS - Charter 4th- 12th NYOS - MAGNOLIA MCCULLOUGH CAMPUS - Charter Grades PK-3rd th- Current Enrollment Projected Enrollment PREMIER H S OF NORTH AUSTIN - Charter 12th Primrose School at Vista Ridge Inf - K, AS Primrose School at Four Points Inf - K

19 Private and Charter Schools (cont d) RESPONSIVE EDUCATION VIRTUAL LEARN - Charter School in The Hills - Montessori in Steiner Ranch School in The Hills - Montessori at River Place Sterling Classical School Summit Christian Academy TEXAS VIRTUAL ACADEMY - Charter WELLS BRANCH LEADERSHIP ACADEMY - Charter Grades Current Enrollment From LISD in KN-12th Enrollment in 5 years From LISD in KN-12th 3rd-8th 3, , Toddler- 3rd rd th PK - Current Enrollment Projected Enrollment Toddler- PK- 12th th- 12th 2, , PK- 10th , Overall percentage of students from LISD in private and charter schools: 6.11% 6.61%

20 Population & Survey Analysts L.I.S.D. Demographic Trends Housing Projections Ratios: Students per Household Projected Student Enrollment Long Range Planning

21 Development Density % of LISD Built out 35% Active 9% Planned 3% Undev. 17% B.C. Preserve 11% Parks 3% B.C.N.W.R. 7% B.C.N.W.R. Targeted 8% Other Preserve 2% Water 3%

22 Parcels 5+ Acres For Sale in L.I.S.D.

23 Subdivisions - Built-out Subdivisions - Actively Building Student Growth by Type of Housing Resident Students in 2015 Resident Students in 2016 Added Students 2015 to 2016 # % Percent of Growth 29,478 29, % --- 3,222 4,234 1,012 31% 83% Apartments 3,115 3, % 8% Condo % 9% Townhomes % --- MHP % 0%

24 Factors Contributing to New Housing Growth * MUDs and TIRZ Financing * Changing Land Plans * New Comprehensive Plans * Large Mixed Use Developments * Condo- izing of Formerly Planned Multi- Family and Commercial * Availability of Water * Environmental Concerns * Transportation Improvements

25 Leander I.S.D. Future Transportation Transportation Improvements Drive New Housing Construction North side: Lakeline extension up to FM 2243 has been completed and will be continued to San Gabriel Parkway Waterfall Ave is planned through Hawkes Landing and through the Watts parcel Improved access within and through subdivisions: East side: Goodnight now winds southward into Travisso, and several major arterials are already completed in the new Travisso MPC Osage extension (Crystal Falls and Travisso) - planned Recent thoroughfares (large sections of East New Hope Dr. are complete, with the segment east of Ronald Reagan planned for the near future) Future extensions (Anderson Mill Rd., Bagdad Rd.) Whitestone reconstructed into a partial continuous- flow intersection and new lanes being added to widen it

26 Largest Growth Single-Family Developments NBCD Subdivision/MPC or Owner's Name New Housing Units Travisso 952 1,527 2, , 4630, 4675, 4680, 4685 Crystal Falls 1, , Bryson & 4610 Mason Hills Palmera Ridge and Palmera Bluff Orchard Ridge Larkspur Deerbrooke Greatwood Oak Creek Lackey parcel Berlin, Farris, et. al. parcels JWM-MOII Prop, MCJ Mgmt parcels Watts Family parcel Devine Lake Parkside at Mayfield Ranch Abbott parcel Giddens/6J Family parcels Total (Above-Listed Subdivisions): 5,174 7,067 12,241 Total Single Family Housing Projected: 10,528 13,730 24,258

27 NBCD Largest Growth Townhome/Condo Developments Condo or Townhome Development Name or Owner's Name 1525 Dooley parcels Parmer Lane area Presidio in Cedar Park Reserves south of Woodall Seaman Will Wilson parcel McGraw/Beck/Dawson/Krury parcels Peck Family parcel Autumn Ridge Montebello Woodville Village Caballo Ranch area Edgewater Whitestone River Place Condos Leander Heights Crystal Falls TH CP 1431 Properties parcel Dudgeon ,999 1,391 3,390 Total (Above-Listed TH and Condos): New Housing Units Total TH & Condo Housing Projected: 3,154 1,489 4,643

28 Multi-Family Developments in the Next Two Years NBCD Apartment Complex Status Subsidized Total New Units 1260 Park at Crystal Falls 15% pre- leased, 3% occ'ed; 242 units complete by Jan Leander Crossing 2016: will be planning ~25 units/ac Gilpin parcel 2700 Tacara Steiner Ranch planned for MF, also has 20 ac. for commercial use 280 under construction, 250 MF units, late 2016 completion The Tuckaway 256 units, now under construction TDHCA Standard at Leander Station 1650 The View at Cedar Park Town Center 2250 The Parc 2580 Cardinal Point opened April 2016, completed const. in June 2016, 225 units, 76% occ'ed bldg occ'ed; 9% occ'ed 27% pre- leased finished Jan units planned on 5.95 ac., and also commercial 123 under construction, 120 units, project is certified as S.M.A.R.T. housing project TDHCA 120

29 Subsidized Housing Complexes

30 Projected New Housing Occupancies Projected New Housing Occupancies Single- Family Multi- Family Condo/ Townhome Senior Living Grand Total July Oct , ,984 Oct Oct , ,384 Oct Oct ,093 1, ,153 Oct Oct ,162 1, ,804 Oct Oct ,368 2, ,074 Oct Oct ,507 1, ,860 Oct Oct ,608 1, ,421 Oct Oct , ,951 Oct Oct , ,892 Oct Oct , ,868 July Oct ,383 6,140 3, ,399 Oct Oct ,725 5,773 1, ,992 July Oct ,108 11,913 4, ,391

31 Projected New Housing Occupancies July 2016 to October 2017

32 Projected New Housing Occupancies September 2016 to October 2021

33 Projected New Housing Occupancies October 2021 to October 2026

34 Projected New Housing Occupancies September 2016 to October 2026

35 Projected New Housing Occupancies Post-2026 to Build-Out

36 Population & Survey Analysts L.I.S.D. Demographic Trends Housing Projections Ratios: Students per Household Projected Student Enrollment Long Range Planning

37 Ratios of Students per Household Single- Family Homes students per home students per home students per home students per home students per home Apartments 0.31 students per unit 0.31 students per unit 0.29 students per unit 0.30 students per unit 0.29 students per unit

38 Students per Home in the Master Planned Communities Avery Ranch Crystal Falls Forest Oaks Mason Hills River Place Steiner Ranch Travisso Twin Creeks

39 Population & Survey Analysts L.I.S.D. Demographic Trends Housing Projections Ratios: Students per Household Projected Student Enrollment Long Range Planning

40 Three Scenarios of Growth Enrollment 55,000 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 High Growth , ,438 Moderate Growth , ,781 Low Growth , ,993 30,

41 Population & Survey Analysts L.I.S.D. Demographic Trends Housing Projections Ratios: Students per Household Projected Student Enrollment Long Range Planning

42 Elementary School Attendance Zones Projected Resident EE-5 th Grade Students

43 Planning Document Only No decisions have been made about school sites, timing or attendance zones Elementary Long Range Planning Open Elementary #

44 Planning Document Only No decisions have been made about school sites, timing or attendance zones Elementary Long Range Planning Open Elementary #

45 Planning Document Only No decisions have been made about school sites, timing or attendance zones Elementary Long Range Planning Open Elementary #

46 Planning Document Only No decisions have been made about school sites, timing or attendance zones Elementary Long Range Planning Open Elementary #

47 Planning Document Only No decisions have been made about school sites, timing or attendance zones Elementary Long Range Planning Open Elementary #

48 Planning Document Only No decisions have been made about school sites, timing or attendance zones Elementary Long Range Planning Summary

49 Summary Elementary Long Range Plan New Elementary Schools Projected to be Needed Total 2016 Study Study Study Study Study

50 Middle School Attendance Zones Projected Resident 6 th -8 th Grade Students

51 Planning Document Only No decisions have been made about school sites, timing or attendance zones Middle School Long Range Planning Open Middle School #9 in Projected Resident 6 th -8 th Grade Students

52 Planning Document Only No decisions have been made about school sites, timing or attendance zones Middle School Long Range Planning Open Middle School #10 in Projected Resident 6 th -8 th Grade Students

53 Summary Middle School Long Range Plan New Middle Schools Projected to be Needed Study MS #9 MS # Study MS #9 MS # Study MS #9 MS # Study MS # Study MS #9 MS #10 MS #10

54 High School Attendance Zones Projected Resident 9 th -12 th Grade Students

55 Summary High School Long Range Plan New High Schools Projected to be Needed Study 2015 Study Glenn HS HS #7 HS # Study HS #6 HS # Study HS #6 HS # Study HS #6 HS #7

56 Leander I.S.D. Demographic Update