South Iredell Demographic and Employment Forecast. Iredell County, NC

Transcription

1 South Iredell Population & Employment Forecast South Iredell Demographic and Employment Forecast Iredell County, NC Prepared for Town of Mooresville Town of Troutman Iredell County Prepared by 223 N. Graham Street Suite 200 Charlotte, NC Client: Towns of Mooresville & Troutman

2 South Iredell Population & Employment Forecast Table of Contents I. INTRODUCTION... 1 II. DEMOGRAPHIC FORECAST... 3 A. HOUSEHOLDS... 3 B. POPULATION... 5 III. EMPLOYMENT FORECAST... 6 IV. LAND DEMAND FORECAST... 9 A. RESIDENTAIL... 9 B. NON-RESIDENTIAL... 9 V. APPENDIX-DEMOGRAPHICS VI. APPENDIX-EMPLOYMENT VII. APPENDIX-LAND DEMAND Client: Towns of Mooresville & Troutman

3 South Iredell Demographic & Employment Forecast I. Introduction Warren & Associates prepared the following household/population (demographic) and employment forecasts for the towns of Mooresville and Troutman, and Iredell County. The forecasts will be utilized as part of public utility, transportation and land use planning efforts in each jurisdiction. The household and population forecasts do not recognize specific age or income cohorts. The employment forecasts were divided among office, industrial, retail and other categories, based on the type of space occupied. The South Iredell Study Area (Study Area) is comprised of 34 Census block groups. These block groups cover Iredell County south of the Statesville city limits to Mecklenburg County. Of the 34 block groups, 26 are considered under the influence of the Town of Mooresville and 8 are under the influence of the Town of Troutman. Much of the Study Area north of NC-150 remains rural, but growth is accelerating in and around Troutman. Suburban subdivisions and the historic downtown of Mooresville characterize the area south of NC-150. Locations adjacent to Lake Norman are almost exclusively single-family residential. The most urban part of the study area is downtown Mooresville, containing three story commercial development with retail on the bottom floor and either retail storage, office space or apartments above. I-77 is the primary highway through the Study Area, connecting Mecklenburg County on the south to Statesville on the north. I-77 is not scheduled for widening through the Study Area according to the North Carolina Department of Transportation (NCDOT). However, at least two more interchanges are proposed. Exit 32 would be built at Langtree Road just north of the Iredell/Mecklenburg County line. There have also been discussions regarding an exit at Brawley School Road (Exit 34). In addition to these two new exits, a major modification to Exit 45 would serve a large proposed project east of I-77. The only road that crosses Lake Norman and connects the study area to Catawba County is NC-150. This road is also the primary connector to Rowan County to the east. There are no plans to widen this heavily-traveled road, which narrows from five to two lanes approximately one mile west of I-77. Clients: Mooresville, Troutman & Iredell Co. 1

4 South Iredell Block Groups (/ 64.-, 40 (/ , %g %g %g %g Lake Norman Troutman Block Groups Mooresville Block Groups

5 South Iredell Demographic & Employment Forecast II. Demographic Forecast A. Households The South Iredell Study Area is projected to increase from 21,403 households in 2000 to 52,494 households in The gain of 31,091 households represents a 145.3% increase over a 25-year period. The Mooresville area would gain 24,640 households, while Troutman would gain 6,451. In spite of the lower absolute increase, Troutman would actually grow at a higher 148% rate. Household Growth, Change Q Number Percent Mooresville 17,031 21,639 23,617 28,588 33,552 37,347 41,671 24, % Troutman 4,372 4,919 5,093 5,799 7,394 9,266 10,823 6, % Total 21,403 26,558 28,710 34,387 40,946 46,613 52,494 31, % Mooresville s growth would begin to moderate after 2015, when the block groups along Lake Norman on the Brawley School Peninsula would begin to build out. This lake front demand would then shift to block groups to the north that are currently more rural in character and to the south where transportation improvements are planned. First quarter 2004 households were determined by adding the total number of for-sale residential closings and the gain in occupied rental apartments to the 2000 Census. To project Mooresville s household growth, the house closing trend by block group between 1999 and the first quarter of 2004 was extended into the future. The total number of vacant developable acres, as supplied by the Iredell County and Mooresville Planning Departments, was then used to place a building cap on each block group. Open space and nonresidential uses were then netted out of this acreage and a specific development density was applied to each block group. Land capacity was further reduced by street and other infrastructure requirements. Mooresville block groups were assumed to grow at their current pace unless the block group was determined to build out prior to In those cases, a portion of the demand was shifted to block groups that offer similar attributes and amenities. Some block groups that had experienced no recent growth were assumed to grow in the future due to proposed public investments or private developments. Troutman s growth between the first quarter of 2004 and 2010 is based on house closing trends and neighborhoods either under development or planned. After 2010, the same rates of growth were applied. The two exceptions were block groups 612.7, which is projected to absorb lakefront housing demand from areas to the south, and 613.3, which is expected to grow much more rapidly once a large planned community extends south from US-70 in Statesville. Clients: Mooresville, Troutman & Iredell Co. 3

6 Household Growth by Block Group, 1Q , 40 (/ 64 (/ 70.-, 77 %g 801 %g 150 %g 115 %g 152 Lake Norman Household Growth > 1500

7 South Iredell Demographic & Employment Forecast Total Households, ,000 Households 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 Mooresville Troutman Year B. Population The Study Area is projected to grow by 81,098 residents, or 140.2%, between 2000 and Of the total 2025 population of 136,845 persons, Mooresville s designated block groups would contain 109,602 persons (80%) and Troutman s sphere of influence would contain 27,243 persons (20%). Total Population, Change Q Number Percent Mooresville 44,520 56,824 62,046 75,139 88,139 98, ,602 65, % Troutman 11,227 12,529 12,956 14,691 18,638 23,302 27,243 16, % Total 55,747 69,353 75,002 89, , , ,845 81, % Population projections were derived from the household projections. Persons per household trends were analyzed between 1990 and The slight decline recorded over the ten-year period was assumed to continue until 2004, although at a slower rate to account for stabilization. The 2004 persons per household was then held constant going forward for each block group. Total Population, Population 120, ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, Year Mooresville Troutman Clients: Mooresville, Troutman & Iredell Co. 5

8 South Iredell Demographic & Employment Forecast III. Employment Forecast Total employment in the Study Area is forecasted to grow from 21,537 jobs in 2002 to 70,305 jobs by This gain of 48,768 jobs would be a 226.4% increase for the 23-year period. In absolute terms, the Mooresville area would gain 40,576 jobs and the Troutman area would gain 8,192 jobs. Given its current lower employment base, Troutman would grow at a faster rate of 255% than Mooresville s 222%. Total Employment, Number Percent Mooresville 18,321 25,635 36,965 45,385 51,818 58,897 40, % Troutman 3,216 4,198 5,891 6,924 8,667 11,408 8, % Total 21,537 29,833 42,856 52,309 60,485 70,305 48, % The aggregate 2002 employment numbers are based on TAZ data supplied by the Centralina Council of Governments (COG). The 2010 forecasts are also largely attributed to COG, though in some cases, numbers were revised to reflect data shared by specific employers and economic developers. Annual growth rates from 2002 to 2010 provided by COG were initially applied to the forecast. However, after review of available land, topography, recent industry announcements, and employment trends, these numbers were adjusted. Employment was divided into four sectors based on the type of space occupied: Retail Office Industrial Other (school, religious, civic, and employed at home) Total Employment, Total Employment 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, Year Mooresville Troutman In total, 40,471 new jobs are forecasted for the Study Area between 2005 and 2025, with 33,262 of those in the Mooresville designated block groups, and 7,029 in Troutman. Office-occupying employment is projected to add the most jobs overall between 2005 and 2025, primarily due to dramatic growth in Clients: Mooresville, Troutman & Iredell Co. 6

9 Total Employment Growth by Block Group, , 40 (/ 64 (/ 70.-, 77 %g 801 %g 150 %g 115 %g 152 Lake Norman Total Employment Growth > 3000

10 South Iredell Demographic & Employment Forecast Mooresville. The 18,083 projected new office jobs would account for 45% of the total growth. Retail accounts for 27% of the overall gain, but 45% of the Troutman total. Industrial and Other jobs would account for about 14% of the projected increase. Employment is projected to total 70,305 jobs by The Mooresville sphere of influence would account for 84% of composite employment, down slightly from 86% in Troutman area employment would accelerate beginning in Employment Growth, Retail Office Industrial Other Total Mooresville 7,799 16,256 4,930 4,277 33,262 Troutman 3,266 1, ,336 7,209 Total 11,065 18,083 5,710 5,613 40,471 % of Total 27.3% 44.7% 14.1% 13.9% 100.0% By category, the Study Area could have 27,161 office jobs, 20,925 retail jobs, 11,271 industrial jobs and 10,898 other jobs in In Troutman, more retail jobs (37%) are projected than office jobs (29%). This is typical of rapidly growing suburban areas, and also reflects the large commercial project planned in block group east of I-77. Total Employment, 2025 Retail Office Industrial Other Total Mooresville 16,735 24,456 9,298 8,408 58,897 Troutman 4,240 2,705 1,973 2,490 11,408 Total 20,975 27,161 11,271 10,898 70,305 % of Total 29.8% 38.6% 16.0% 15.5% 100.0% Office-occupying jobs will be the largest sector in 2025, with a 38.6% share. Most of these jobs (90%) will be in Mooresville, boosted in large part by the Lowe s Home Improvement Corporate Facility at Exit 33. Total Employment by Sector, ,000 25,000 Employment 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Mooresville Troutman 0 Retail Office Industrial Other Sector Clients: Mooresville, Troutman & Iredell Co. 8

11 South Iredell Demographic & Employment Forecast IV. Land Demand Forecast A. Residential Based on data and input provided by the client jurisdictions, there are an estimated 67,997 vacant acres in the Study Area. Due to topography, zoning, watershed, and infrastructure issues, we estimate that 47,141 acres could be developed for residential use. Future densities range from 1.5 to 5 units per acres to account for water/sewer availability, watershed restrictions, future transit and roads, and zoning. Based on these parameters, 77,244 additional housing units could be added to the Study Area by This includes 47,252 housing units that could be added to the Mooresville designated block groups and 29,992 housing units in the Troutman area. Residential Land Capacity Residential Household Vacant Developable Growth Acres Acres Capacity Mooresville 38,064 27,243 47,252 Troutman 29,933 19,898 29,992 Total 67,997 47,141 77,244 The Study Area is forecasted to absorb 13,623 residential acres between 2005 and 2025, representing 29% of the currently estimated developable supply. The Mooresville block groups would absorb a higher 36% share of capacity, while the Troutman block groups would absorb 19% of capacity. Residential Land Absorption, 2025 Residential Residential Developable Acres Remaining Acres Absorbed Acres, 2025 Mooresville 27,243 9,764 17,479 Troutman 19,898 3,859 16,039 Total 47,141 13,623 33,518 By 2025, a total of 33,518 acres could remain for residential development in the Study Area. The supply would be divided almost equally between the Mooresville and Troutman block groups. B. Non-Residential Employment growth was converted into square footage demand based on varying occupancy standards. For example, the typical office worker requires less space (200 sq. ft.) than a retail (400 sq. ft.) or industrial (800 sq. ft.) worker. As a result, office would require the least amount of space even though it is forecasted to add the most jobs. A total of 12,610,447 square feet of new non-residential space could accommodate the forecasted employment growth by Of the total, 10,314,735 square feet would emerge in Mooresville s block groups and 2,295,712 square feet in Troutman s. Clients: Mooresville, Troutman & Iredell Co. 9

12 Building Limits by Block Group Percent Percent Residential Units Household 15% Block Total Vacant or Vacant Residential Developable Per Growth Less Group Acres Unplatted Acres Developable Acres Acre Capacity Capacity , % 5, % 5, , , % 3, % 2, , , % 1, % , , % 2, % 1, , , % 1, % , % 2, % 1, , , % 5, % 1, , , % 8, % 6, , Troutman 39, % 29, % 19, ,284 29, , % 1, % 1, , , % 1, % 1, , , % 1, % 1, , , % 3, % 3, , , % 5, % 4, , , % 4, % 2, , , % % , % % , % % , , % % , % % , % 1, % , % 1, % , , % 8, % 5, , % % % % % % , % 2, % 2, , , % % , % % % % % % % 1.8 0% % % , % 1, % , , % % Mooresville 80, % 38, % 27, ,591 47,252 Totals 120, , , ,875 77,244

13 South Iredell Demographic & Employment Forecast Square Foot Growth, Retail Office Industrial Total Mooresville 3,119,518 3,251,119 3,944,098 10,314,735 Troutman 1,306, , ,796 2,295,712 Total 4,426,055 3,616,498 4,567,894 12,610,447 % of Total 35.1% 28.7% 36.2% 100.0% Square footage growth is converted to acreage demand based on Floor Area Ratios (FARs) for the different classes of space. These ratios are based on urban, suburban or rural districts. Retail space is expected to consume the most land, followed closely by industrial. Office, due to its relatively high FAR, will need the least amount of land. Non-Residential Acreage Demand, Retail Office Industrial Total Mooresville Troutman Total % of Total 41.3% 20.9% 37.8% 100.0% Note: Summation differences due to rounding. Of the 909 total acres required to accommodate the forecasted building square footage demand, 708 acres (78%) would be in the Mooresville block groups and 201 acres (22%) would be in the Troutman area. The Mooresville office land is net of the Lowe s Home Improvement Corporate Facility, as this acreage has already been absorbed in the market. The Troutman forecast includes the large planned commercial development in block group east of I-77. Clients: Mooresville, Troutman & Iredell Co. 11

14 Residential Land Buildout Schedule by Block Group.-, 40 (/ 64 (/ 70.-, 77 %g 801 %g 150 %g 115 %g 152 Lake Norman Buildout Year Before After 2025

15 South Iredell Demographic & Employment Forecast V. Appendix-Demographics Clients: Mooresville, Troutman & Iredell Co. 13

16 South Iredell Subdivision Inventory, 1st Quarter 2004 Block Finished Finished Under Remaining Subdivision Group Status Occupied Vacant Construction Lots Total Lake Norman/Harbor Watch Active Pineville Road Estates Active River Ridge Active Upper Lake Place Future Colony Place Active Ridgewood Future Jacob's Woods Active Alexis Landing (formerly Dogwood Estates) Active Murdock Farms Future Eastern Heights Active Pond Lane B/O 2Q Perth and Clontz Future Crescent Resources Future Greycliff Active Spicewood Active Meadow Glen Active Pleasant Garden Active South Trace Active Hawkes Bay Active Lake Norman/Sunset Bay Active Lakeway Estates Active Sarah's Creek Active Stillwater Estates Active Wildlife Bay Active Windermere Active Windermere Island Active Bay Crossing Future Beacon Pointe Active Creekwood Village Active Grand Bay Active Honeysuckle Creek Future Morrison Plantation Active Morrison Plantation - Meeting Street TH Active Northington Woods Future Wildwood Cove Active Cedar Woods Future Dana's Estate Future Enclave, The Active Forest Glen Active Lake Norman/Harbor Landing Active Lake Norman/Harbor View Active Northwood Active Pine Meadow Future Sterling Green Village Future Tanglewood Active Thompson Hill Future Wiltshire Creek Active Winslow Bay Active Bertha Byers Future Brantley Place B/O 2Q Sunshine Estates Active Winborne Active Barium Season Village Future Brawley Place Future Greene Croft Active Magic Forest Future Amity Hill Rd Future ,000 3,000 Kelly Farmsteads Active Brook Glen Active Gabriel Estates Active Gabriel Estates TH B/O 4Q Lake Norman, The Highlands at Active Sundown Cove Active Beech Tree Bay Active Blackberry Creek Active Ivy Ridge Active Lake Hills Estates Active

17 South Iredell Subdivision Inventory, 1st Quarter 2004 (Cont'd) Block Finished Finished Under Remaining Subdivision Group Status Occupied Vacant Construction Lots Total Lake View Heights Active Pinetuck Future Pineview Estates Active Point on Norman, The Active Yacht Shores Active Edgewater Park Active Farms, The Active Harbor, The Active Water Tree Future Brookhaven TH Active Devonshire Active Fernbrook B/O 1Q Greenbay Forest Active Lochmere B/O 2Q McCrary Woods Future Morrison Cove Active Oak Tree Landing Active Oak Tree,Villages at Active Shavender's Bluff Active Vista Bluffs Active Whippoorwill Woods Active Wyndham Shores B/O 2Q Donaldson Landing Active Regency Lake Active Stutts Cove Active Woodland Hills Active Bradford Glen B/O 3Q Churchill Estates Active Gibbs Cove Future Harbor Cove Active Reed Creek B/O 1Q Sunridge Place TH Active Talbert Townes Active Barrister Bay Active Kelly Cove Active Templeton Bay Active Winding Forest Future Davidson Pointe Future King's Landing Active Lake Front Estates Future Waterside Landing B/O 2Q Country Estates Active Curtis Pond Active Davidson Ridge Active Home Place Active Tall Oaks Active Cedarcroft Village B/O 3Q Cherry Grove Active Carrigan Active Harris Village Active Linwood Farms Active Magnolia Ridge Active Curtis Pond Estates (formerly Kistler Mill) Active Woodlands at the Park Active Eddy Place Future Glynwater Active English Hills - The Hampshires Active Foxfield Active Hampshires Active Station 115 TH Active Muirfield B/O 4Q Muirfield-Monument Park B/O 4Q Norman TH Active Sherwood Forest Active Total 5, ,537 14,664 Note: TH stands for townhomes, B/O stands for built-out Sources: American Metrostudy, Warren & Associates

18 Copyright Metrostudy Annual Starts 65 to 126 (6) 15 to 65 (18) 0 to 15 (104) &% 150 Subdivisions are sequentially numbered from left to right across the page Westport Municipal Troutman Lake Norman Airpark &% Mooresville &% Charlotte South Iredell- 128 subdivisions 1 -Upper Lake Place 2 -Long Cove 3 -Lake Norman/Harbor Watch 4 -River Ridge (Iredell) 5 -Windermere (Iredell Co.) 6 -Windermere Island 7 -Pineville Road Estates 8 -Colony Place 9 -Water Tree Landing 10 -Ridgewood 11 -Harbor, The 12 -Hawkes Bay 13 -Lakeway Estates 14 -Greenbay Forest 15 -Lake Norman/Sunset Bay 16 -Point on Norman, The 17 -Farms, The 18 -Yacht Shores 19 -Wildlife Bay 20 -Vista Bluffs 21 -Stillwater Estates 22 -Blackberry Creek 23 -Brookhaven TH (Iredell) 24 -Meadow Glen (Iredell, Troutman) 25 -Sarah's Creek 26 -McCrary Woods 27 -Shavender's Bluff 28 -Pineview Estates 29 -Beacon Pointe 30 -Edgewater Park 31 -Beech Tree Bay 32 -Lake Hills Estates 33 -Pinetuck 34 -Ivy Ridge 35 -Oak Tree Landing 36 -Lake View Heights 37 -Whippoorwill Woods 38 -Pleasant Garden 39 -Morrison Cove 40 -Grand Bay 41 -Wyndham Shores 42 -Morrison Plantation - Meeting Street TH 43 -Lochmere 44 -Morrison Plantation 45 -Greycliff 46 -Creekwood Village 47 -Northington Woods 48 -Spicewood 49 -Devonshire 50 -Honeysuckle Creek 51 -Wildwood Cove (Iredell) 52 -Lake Norman/Harbor View 53 -Stutts Cove 54 -Fernbrook 55 -South Trace (Iredell, Troutman) 56 -Oak Tree,Villages at 57 -Woodland Hills 58 -Lake Norman/Harbor Landing 59 -Donaldson Landing 60 -Wiltshire Creek 61 -Regency Lake 76 -Winslow Bay 62 -Sterling Green Village 77 -Pond Lane 63 -Pine Meadow 78 -Cedar Woods 64 -Alexis Landing (formerly Dogwood Estates) 79 -Enclave, The 65 -Thompson Hill 66 -Northwood (Iredell) 67 -Eastern Heights 68 -Waterside Landing 69 -Jacob's Woods 70 -Kelly Cove 71 -King's Landing 72 -Tanglewood 73 -Templeton Bay 74 -Barrister Bay 75 -Dana's Estate 80 -Harbor Cove 81 -Winding Forest 82 -Forest Glen 83 -Barium Season Village 84 -Churchill Estates 85 -Gibbs Cove 86 -Magic Forest 87 -Bertha Byers 88 -Sunridge Place TH 89 -Davidson Pointe 90 -Reed Creek TMA

19 Mooresville Projection - Household Total Block Group 1Q ,232 1,366 1,500 1,635 1,769 1,903 2,160 2,483 2,805 3,127 3,449 3,772 3,972 3,972 3,972 3,972 3,972 3,972 3,972 3,972 3, ,557 1,707 1,793 1,878 1,964 2,049 2,135 2,283 2,462 2,642 2,822 3,001 3,181 3,361 3,540 3,814 4,088 4,361 4,635 4,909 5,061 5, ,410 1,568 1,659 1,749 1,839 1,930 2,020 2,110 2,201 2,291 2,382 2,472 2,562 2,653 2,743 2,834 2,924 3,014 3,105 3,195 3,285 3, ,000 1,020 1,040 1,060 1,080 1,100 1,120 1,140 1,160 1,180 1,200 1,220 1, ,075 1,143 1,212 1,280 1,349 1,417 1,486 1,554 1,622 1,691 1,759 1,828 1,896 1,965 2,033 2,102 2,170 2,239 2,307 2,375 2, ,174 1,305 1,379 1,454 1,529 1,585 1,585 1,585 1,585 1,585 1,585 1,585 1,585 1,585 1,585 1,585 1,585 1,585 1,585 1,585 1,585 1, ,033 1,081 1,128 1,176 1,255 1,398 1,441 1,441 1,441 1,441 1,441 1,441 1,441 1,441 1,441 1,441 1,441 1,441 1,441 1,441 1, ,294 1,572 1,731 1,889 2,048 2,171 2,171 2,171 2,171 2,171 2,171 2,171 2,171 2,171 2,171 2,171 2,171 2,171 2,171 2,171 2,171 2, ,020 1,058 1,080 1,090 1,090 1,090 1,090 1,090 1,090 1,090 1,090 1,090 1,090 1,090 1,090 1,090 1,090 1,090 1,090 1,090 1,090 1, ,289 1,417 1,490 1,536 1,536 1,536 1,536 1,536 1,536 1,536 1,536 1,536 1,536 1,536 1,536 1,536 1,536 1,536 1,536 1,536 1,536 1, ,003 1,045 1,088 1,130 1,172 1,215 1,257 1,299 1,342 1,384 1,427 1, ,002 1,088 1,174 1,260 1,347 1,433 1,519 1,605 1,611 1,611 1,611 1, ,144 1,237 1,291 1,344 1,397 1,451 1,504 1,558 1,611 1,664 1,718 1,771 1,824 1,878 1,931 1,984 2,038 2,091 2,144 2,198 2,251 2, ,029 1,083 1,138 1,193 1,235 1,235 1,235 1,235 1,235 1,235 1,235 1,235 1,235 1,235 1, ,051 1,108 1,164 1,221 1,277 1,334 1,390 1,446 1,503 1,559 1,616 1,672 1,728 1,785 1,841 1,898 1, ,026 1,058 1,091 1,124 1,157 1,189 1,222 1,255 1,288 1,321 1,353 1,386 1, ,005 1,073 1,140 1,208 1,275 1,343 1,410 1,478 1,545 1,613 1,680 1,748 1,815 1,883 1,951 2,018 2,086 2,153 2,221 2,288 2, Total 21,639 23,617 24,696 25,755 26,758 27,738 28,648 29,644 30,764 31,863 32,962 34,048 35,092 36,015 36,737 37,553 38,369 39,185 39,920 40,646 41,250 41,671 Troutman Projection - Household Total Block Group 1Q ,003 1,018 1, ,027 1,030 1,033 1, ,081 1,187 1,303 1,431 1,571 1,725 1,894 2,079 2,283 2, ,074 1,147 1,147 1,147 1,147 1,147 1,147 1,147 1,147 1, ,061 1,174 1,287 1,400 1,513 1,626 1,833 1,837 1,837 1,837 1,837 1, ,071 1,073 1,078 1,083 1,088 1,093 1,098 1,103 1,130 1,157 1,184 1,211 1,238 1,265 1,292 1,319 1,401 1,483 1,565 1,647 1,729 1,811 Total 4,919 5,093 5,234 5,375 5,516 5,657 5,799 6,060 6,353 6,687 7,033 7,394 7,770 8,144 8,456 8,780 9,266 9,563 9,871 10,169 10,486 10,823 Total 26,558 28,710 29,930 31,130 32,274 33,395 34,447 35,703 37,117 38,549 39,995 41,442 42,862 44,159 45,193 46,333 47,635 48,747 49,791 50,815 51,736 52,494

20 Mooresville Projected - Population Total Block Group 1Q ,539 3,137 3,479 3,821 4,163 4,505 4,847 5,502 6,322 7,143 7,964 8,784 9,605 10,115 10,115 10,115 10,115 10,115 10,115 10,115 10,115 10, ,329 4,746 4,984 5,222 5,460 5,698 5,937 6,347 6,847 7,346 7,846 8,345 8,845 9,344 9,844 10,604 11,365 12,126 12,887 13,648 14,072 14, ,639 4,047 4,281 4,514 4,747 4,980 5,214 5,447 5,680 5,913 6,147 6,380 6,613 6,847 7,080 7,313 7,546 7,780 8,013 8,246 8,479 8, ,197 2,292 2,347 2,402 2,456 2,511 2,565 2,620 2,675 2,729 2,784 2,838 2,893 2,947 3,002 3,057 3,111 3,166 3,220 3,275 3,330 3, ,113 1,113 1,113 1,113 1,113 1,113 1,113 1,113 1,127 1,140 1,153 1,166 1,179 1,192 1,205 1,218 1,231 1,244 1,257 1,270 1,283 1, ,441 2,748 2,923 3,097 3,272 3,447 3,622 3,797 3,972 4,147 4,322 4,497 4,672 4,847 5,022 5,197 5,372 5,547 5,722 5,897 6,072 6, ,190 3,545 3,748 3,951 4,154 4,307 4,307 4,307 4,307 4,307 4,307 4,307 4,307 4,307 4,307 4,307 4,307 4,307 4,307 4,307 4,307 4, ,476 2,695 2,820 2,944 3,069 3,275 3,648 3,760 3,760 3,760 3,760 3,760 3,760 3,760 3,760 3,760 3,760 3,760 3,760 3,760 3,760 3, ,520 4,276 4,708 5,140 5,572 5,906 5,906 5,906 5,906 5,906 5,906 5,906 5,906 5,906 5,906 5,906 5,906 5,906 5,906 5,906 5,906 5, ,626 2,724 2,780 2,806 2,806 2,806 2,806 2,806 2,806 2,806 2,806 2,806 2,806 2,806 2,806 2,806 2,806 2,806 2,806 2,806 2,806 2, ,402 3,740 3,933 4,054 4,054 4,054 4,054 4,054 4,054 4,054 4,054 4,054 4,054 4,054 4,054 4,054 4,054 4,054 4,054 4,054 4,054 4, ,733 1,786 1,817 1,884 1,951 2,019 2,086 2,153 2,257 2,362 2,466 2,570 2,674 2,778 2,882 2,986 3,091 3,195 3,299 3,403 3,507 3, ,645 1,692 1,719 1,746 1,773 1,800 1,828 1,855 2,069 2,284 2,498 2,712 2,927 3,141 3,356 3,570 3,785 3,999 4,015 4,015 4,015 4, ,049 3,298 3,441 3,583 3,725 3,867 4,009 4,152 4,294 4,436 4,578 4,721 4,863 5,005 5,147 5,289 5,432 5,574 5,716 5,858 6,001 6, ,044 2,146 2,146 2,146 2,146 2,146 2,198 2,249 2,262 2,262 2,262 2,262 2,262 2,262 2,262 2,262 2,262 2,262 2,262 2,262 2,262 2, ,432 1,658 1,788 1,917 2,047 2,176 2,305 2,435 2,564 2,694 2,823 2,923 2,923 2,923 2,923 2,923 2,923 2,923 2,923 2,923 2,923 2, ,876 2,131 2,276 2,422 2,567 2,713 2,859 3,004 3,150 3,295 3,441 3,586 3,732 3,878 4,023 4,169 4,314 4,460 4,605 4,751 4,897 5, ,931 2,088 2,178 2,267 2,357 2,447 2,536 2,626 2,716 2,805 2,895 2,985 3,074 3,164 3,254 3,343 3,433 3,523 3,612 3,702 3,792 3, ,646 1,646 1,646 1,657 1,668 1,679 1,690 1,701 1,712 1,723 1,734 1,745 1,756 1,767 1,778 1,789 1,800 1,811 1,819 1,819 1,819 1, ,552 1,552 1,552 1,552 1,552 1,552 1,605 1,658 1,687 1,687 1,687 1,687 1,687 1,687 1,687 1,687 1,687 1,687 1,687 1,687 1,687 1, ,678 1,817 1,817 1,817 1,817 1,817 1,817 1,817 1,817 1,817 1,817 1,817 1,817 1,817 1,817 1,817 1,817 1,817 1,817 1,817 1,817 1, ,176 1,176 1,176 1,176 1,176 1,176 1,176 1,176 1,176 1,176 1,176 1,176 1,176 1,176 1,176 1,176 1,176 1,176 1,176 1,176 1,176 1, ,481 2,811 3,000 3,189 3,378 3,567 3,756 3,944 4,133 4,322 4,511 4,700 4,889 5,078 5,266 5,455 5,644 5,833 6,022 6,211 6,400 6, ,662 1,734 1,776 1,817 1,859 1,900 1,942 1,983 2,024 2,066 2,107 2,149 2,190 2,231 2,273 2,314 2,356 2,397 2,439 2,480 2,521 2,563 Total 56,824 62,046 64,892 67,684 70,329 72,908 75,286 77,890 80,809 83,672 86,534 89,368 92,101 94,525 96,437 98, , , , , , ,602 Troutman Projected - Population Total Block Group 1Q ,915 1,965 1,994 2,023 2,052 2,081 2,109 2,139 2,170 2,201 2,232 2,264 2,296 2,329 2,362 2,396 2,430 2,464 2,500 2,535 2,571 2, ,864 1,866 1,873 1,880 1,887 1,894 1,900 1,907 1,914 1,993 2,072 2,151 2,230 2,309 2,388 2,467 2,546 2,625 2,704 2,712 2,720 2, ,007 1,021 1,034 1,048 1,062 1,076 1,091 1,105 1,120 1,135 1,150 1,165 1, ,059 1,171 1,284 1,397 1,509 1,657 1,820 1,998 2,194 2,409 2,645 2,904 3,188 3,500 3,843 4,220 4,633 5,087 5,586 6, ,054 1,160 1,266 1,373 1,479 1,585 1,720 1,867 2,026 2,198 2,385 2,589 2,764 2,764 2,764 2,764 2,764 2,764 2,764 2,764 2, ,957 2,058 2,074 2,090 2,106 2,122 2,139 2,155 2,172 2,189 2,206 2,223 2,240 2,258 2,275 2,293 2,311 2,329 2,347 2,365 2,383 2, ,149 1,242 1,292 1,342 1,392 1,442 1,492 1,769 2,046 2,323 2,600 2,877 3,154 3,430 3,707 3,984 4,491 4,501 4,501 4,501 4,501 4, ,915 2,920 2,933 2,947 2,960 2,974 2,988 3,001 3,075 3,148 3,222 3,295 3,368 3,442 3,515 3,589 3,812 4,035 4,258 4,481 4,704 4,927 Total 12,529 12,956 13,303 13,650 13,997 14,344 14,691 15,331 16,057 16,885 17,744 18,638 19,570 20,497 21,276 22,083 23,302 24,058 24,841 25,595 26,395 27,243 Total 69,353 75,002 78,195 81,335 84,327 87,252 89,977 93,221 96, , , , , , , , , , , , , ,845

21 Population Growth by Block Group, 1Q , 40 (/ 64 (/ 70.-, 77 %g 801 %g 150 %g 115 %g 152 Lake Norman Population Growth > 3917

22 South Iredell Demographic & Employment Forecast VI. Appendix-Employment Clients: Mooresville, Troutman & Iredell Co. 20

23 South Iredell Demographic & Employment Forecast Mooresville Retail Employment Total Census Block Tract Group ,160 1,487 1,708 1,966 2, ,008 1,115 1,180 1, ,251 1,418 1,615 1, ,686 1,878 2,198 2,254 2,311 2, ,046 1, Total 6,128 8,484 11,484 13,067 14,725 16,735 Mooresville Retail Employment Gain Census Block Tract Group , Total 2,852 4,248 5,841 7,799 Troutman Retail Employment Total Census Block Tract Group ,356 Total ,438 1,848 2,595 4,240 Troutman Retail Employment Gain Census Block Tract Group ,289 Total ,621 3,266 Study Area Total 6,822 9,457 12,922 14,915 17,320 20,975 Study Area Total 3,317 5,123 7,462 11,065 Clients: Mooresville, Troutman & Iredell Co. 21

24 Retail Employment Growth by Block Group, , 40 (/ 64 (/ 70.-, 77 %g 801 %g 150 %g 115 %g 152 Lake Norman Retail Employment Growth > 1200

25 South Iredell Demographic & Employment Forecast Mooresville Office Employment Total Census Block Tract Group , , ,039 1,122 1,210 1, ,082 1,395 1,440 1,487 1, ,843 4,411 7,868 8,979 9, , Total 5,577 8,652 13,714 18,658 21,490 24,456 Mooresville Office Employment Gain Census Block Tract Group ,716 6,359 7,535 8, , Total 5,209 10,341 13,237 16,256 Troutman Office Employment Total Census Block Tract Group ,213 Total ,307 1,600 2,050 2,705 Troutman Office Employment Gain Census Block Tract Group ,112 Total ,171 1,827 Study Area Total 6,199 9,531 15,021 20,258 23,540 27,161 Study Area Total 5,638 11,062 14,408 18,082 Clients: Mooresville, Troutman & Iredell Co. 23

26 Office Employment Growth by Block Group, , 40 (/ 64 (/ 70.-, 77 %g 801 %g 150 %g 115 %g 152 Lake Norman Office Employment Growth > 1200

27 South Iredell Demographic & Employment Forecast Mooresville Industrial Employment Total Census Block Tract Group ,070 1,365 1, ,065 1,281 1,559 1,896 2, Total 3,384 4,369 6,011 6,905 7,986 9,298 Mooresville Industrial Employment Gain Census Block Tract Group , , Total 1,642 2,536 3,617 4,930 Troutman Industrial Employment Total Census Block Tract Group Total 955 1,193 1,588 1,697 1,824 1,973 Troutman Industrial Employment Gain Census Block Tract Group Total Study Area Total 4,339 5,562 7,599 8,602 9,810 11,271 Study Area Total 2,037 3,040 4,249 5,710 Clients: Mooresville, Troutman & Iredell Co. 25

28 Industrial Employment Growth by Block Group, , 40 (/ 64 (/ 70.-, 77 %g 801 %g 150 %g 115 %g 152 Lake Norman Industrial Employment Growth > 1200

29 South Iredell Demographic & Employment Forecast Mooresville Other Employment Total Census Block Tract Group Total 3,232 4,129 5,757 6,755 7,618 8,408 Mooresville Other Employment Gain Census Block Tract Group Total 1,627 2,626 3,489 4,277 Troutman Other Employment Total Census Block Tract Group Total 945 1,154 1,557 1,779 2,198 2,490 Troutman Other Employment Gain Census Block Tract Group Total ,044 1,336 Study Area Total 4,177 5,283 7,314 8,534 9,816 10,898 Study Area Total 2,031 3,252 4,533 5,613 Clients: Mooresville, Troutman & Iredell Co. 27

30 South Iredell Demographic & Employment Forecast VII. Appendix-Land Demand Clients: Mooresville, Troutman & Iredell Co. 28

31 Mooresville Retail Sq. Ft. Gain Mooresville Office Sq. Ft. Gain Mooresville Industrial Sq. Ft. Gain Census Block Census Block Census Block Tract Group Tract Group Tract Group ,316 81, , , ,756 19,351 33,438 54, ,474 16,161 18,984 21, , , , , ,491 30,580 55,194 91, ,437 38,293 45,863 54, , , , , ,182 57,586 86, , , , , , ,252 74, , , ,804 31,144 52,544 85, ,180 96, , , ,604 4,231 5,145 6, ,849 5,592 10,391 19, ,250 14,256 16,312 18, ,286 57,237 77,055 99, ,061 39,823 56,561 75, , , , , ,044 21,173 25,671 30, ,220 21,569 27,515 34, ,650 18,948 20,278 21, ,352 37,992 43,449 49, ,493 21,144 33,520 52, ,152 19,701 30,610 44, , , , , ,373 70, , , ,291 81,367 91, , ,738 58,238 76,803 97, ,763 58,219 75,795 95, ,240 63,874 76,100 88, , , , , ,446 71,501 80,907 90, , , , , ,810 96, , , ,127 1,271,782 1,506,973 1,690, , , , , ,725 31,882 40,272 48, , , , , ,575 49,148 57,308 66, ,431 66,002 73,203 80, ,027 21,072 23,829 26, ,607 69,042 79,206 90, ,349 16,752 27,444 41, ,183 9,409 13,178 17, ,535 32,109 40,268 49, ,172 47,126 62,346 78, ,920 23,032 31,008 39, ,666 56,151 74,987 95, ,743 18,285 39,294 69, ,120 22,041 37,764 58, ,695 2,632 3,719 4, ,962 50,385 94, , ,124 11,883 18,178 26, ,455 28,484 31,668 35, ,672 45,164 55,566 67, ,446 21,297 26,709 32, ,102 15,477 16,887 18, ,869 8,374 9,950 11, ,081 13,419 16,981 20, ,166 1, ,646 57,533 80, , ,677 29,968 42,266 55, ,975 64,566 72,348 80, ,205 17,293 21,809 26, ,708 7,463 9,398 11, ,892 14,100 16,421 18, ,767 26,872 41,933 59, ,428 18,439 26,229 34, ,623 40,673 65,075 93, ,640 37,079 50,453 66, ,709 20,502 32,480 49, ,422 89, , , ,467 41,924 53,472 66, ,875 38,651 49,624 61, , , , , ,389 48,823 79, , ,885 30,153 41,239 54, ,408 41,959 51,399 61,822 Total 1,140,886 1,699,148 2,336,445 3,119,518 Total 1,041,819 2,068,141 2,647,345 3,251,119 Total 1,313,523 2,028,777 2,893,614 3,944,098 Troutman Retail Sq. Ft. Gain Troutman Office Sq. Ft. Gain Troutman Industrial Sq. Ft. Gain Census Block Census Block Census Block Tract Group Tract Group Tract Group ,668 7,425 8,207 9, ,118 3,716 4,344 5, ,773 4,268 4,776 5, ,948 48,374 60,030 73, ,376 19,548 26,070 34, ,196 33,623 40,379 47, ,128 57,212 76,189 98, ,665 32,365 45,980 66, , , , , ,609 66,095 98, , ,444 14,466 17,643 20, ,025 91, , , ,278 21,667 30,842 30, ,095 8,810 13,881 2, ,828 20,970 27,425 34, ,618 26,424 30,348 36, ,002 7,280 9,598 12, ,772 12,115 15,805 19, ,522 2,159 2,841 3, ,042 1,241 1, ,370 2,250 3,437 4, , , , , ,112 57, , , ,225 71, , ,100 Total 186, , ,530 1,306,537 Total 85, , , ,379 Total 316, , , ,796 Study Area Total 1,326,939 2,049,344 2,984,975 4,426,055 Study Area Total 1,127,562 2,212,453 2,881,620 3,616,498 Study Area Total 1,629,813 2,431,940 3,398,881 4,567,894