Betting guide BouCing Bull page 04 comments by Derek rested horse rubish Simon Born for the Belmont page 08 Contender analysis page 12

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1 Betting guide BouCing Bull page 04 rested horse rubish page 06 comments by Derek Simon Born for the Belmont page 08 Contender analysis page 12

2 04 06 Bouncing Bull Ever since Super Saver retreated like a hairline at a 20-year high school reunion around the far turn in the 2010 Preakness Stakes, I ve been giving a lot of thought to bouncing. US Racing 2016 Belmont StakeS Betting guide rested horse rubish Horse bettors are always looking for a "rested" horse in the third leg of the Triple Crown, but do freshened steeds really perform better in the Test of Champions? Born for The BelmonT Are some Belmont entrants better bets simply based on their birthday? contender AnAlysis Horse-by-horse analysis of the 2016 Belmont Stakes, including past performances with speed and pace figures. 02 USR Content

3 editor dear readers, editor LeTTer It is with great pleasure that I present US Racing s 2016 Belmont Stakes Betting Guide. Inside these pages you will find a variety of great insights and important information regarding the Test of Champions. Among the questions I will attempt to answer are: -Do rested horses perform better in the final leg of the Triple Crown? - Are some horses born to run well in the Belmont? - How important is early speed or the lack thereof? There s even an article examining the Bounce Theory (the notion that horses regress after a peak performance due to fatigue). But wait, there s more (I feel like the host of an infomercial) In addition to all of the wonderful articles and commentary, readers will also find my exclusive Pace Profile Report, which contains speed and pace figures for all the Belmont entrants. These figures have been a key to my own handicapping success and I hope they will help all of you cash a few extra tickets as well. I hope you get a lot out of US Racing s 2016 Belmont Stakes Betting Guide and that it helps you enjoy the big race even more. Also, remember you can bet the big race and a variety of props at Warmest regards, Derek Simon 03 USR editorial

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5 BounCing BullBy derek Simoni Ever since Super Saver retreated like a hairline at a 20-year high school reunion around the far turn in the 2010 Preakness Stakes, I ve been giving a lot of thought to bouncing. Not the Roadhouse kind of bouncing, mind you I tried that once and, surprisingly, it wasn t that glamorous. No, the type of bouncing I m talking about relates to horse racing and, specifically, the belief that an animal coming off a hard race or series of hard races will invariably regress, or bounce, in its next start if not given the proper amount of time to recover. First advanced by Len Ragozin of The Sheets, the Bounce Theory has gone from a controversial premise once mocked by Andrew Beyer, to an accepted handicapping tenet right up there with thou shalt not bet against Bob Baffert in a Triple Crown race. Moreover, Beyer s no longer laughing. In fact, in Beyer on Speed, the speed figure guru even added to the Bounce Theory lexicon with his Three-and-Out pattern, the author s observation that a sequence of three improving Beyer speed figures often leads to a pronounced rating decline. But is that erosion due to the stress from a taxing effort or does it simply represent a return to the mean? After all, when Wilt Chamberlain scored 100 points against the New York Knicks on March 2, 1962, did he bounce two days later when he tallied just 58? When Dallas Braden, a guy with a 4.16 career ERA, pitched a perfect game on May 9, 2010, did he bounce in his subsequent start when he allowed four earned runs in eight innings of work (4.50 ERA)? Personally, I don t think so. Chamberlain never scored 100 points in a single game again and Braden was out of baseball following an injury the following year. Like Bellamy Road in the 2005 Wood Memorial, Arazi in the 1991 Breeders Cup Juvenile or Da Tara in the 2008 Belmont, Chamberlain and Braden had their moment in the sun and then the moment was gone. The mistake, as it relates to horseracing and the Bounce Theory, is in believing that such a moment is indicative of one s overall talent level. Just like the duffer that shoots a hole-in-one or the weekend warrior that bowls a 300 game, all of us, with the possible exception of the cast of MacGruber, are capable of greatness on occasion. What makes one truly exceptional is the ability to maintain a high level of performance over longer periods of time. 4 USR Betting guide

6 Hence, I contend that what many handicappers term a bounce is nothing more than a regression of form, born out of a horse s general lack of consistency. In other words, it is a perfectly normal (dare I say expected) reversal of fortune. To test my theory, I decided to take a look at horses that won their last race by less than a half-length (i.e. a tough effort) as well as horses that recorded a career-best speed figure in their last race and group them by their overall winning rates over the past two years. If my hypothesis is correct, one would expect to see more successful horses those with higher winning rates bounce less often. However, unlike other studies, I did not use speed figures as evidence for or against a bounce; one cannot cash a speed figure trust me, I ve tried. Instead, I focused solely on winning percentages and ROI. Using my own database of over 14,000 thoroughbred races, I obtained the following data: Matched/Esceeded lifetime-best Brisnet Speed Figure in Last Race Win Rate Number Wins $2 Return ROI IV OBIV 0.0% to 19.9% 5, $ % % to 39.9% 2, $ % % to 59.9% $ % % & Up $ % WON LAST RACE BY A HALF-LENGTH OR LESS Win Rate Number Wins $2 Return ROI IV OBIV 0.0% to 19.9% 1, $ % % to 39.9% 1, $ % % to 59.9% $ % % & Up $ % Note: Only horses with five or more lifetime starts were considered. What does this prove? Well, to be honest, not much. But it does disprove the notion that horses are destined to run poorly after a demanding effort. So, the next time you see a horse with a towering speed figure or one that you believe may have left its guts on the racetrack last time out, don t be so quick to dismiss it. Examine the horse s past performances and then check the tote board the odds might be crazy. ODDS-BASED IMPACT VALUE Greater than 0.85 Factor(s) have/has a positive impact Factor(s) have/has no significant impact. Less than 0.80 Factor(s) have/has a negative impact 5 USR Betting guide

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8 rested horse rubbish By derek Simoni "conquistador cielo Won By 14 lengths in what, from a pace standpoint, was one of the most impressive Belmont Stakes wins ever. Mere moments after Tonalist thwarted California Of course, Coburn was parroting the widespread belief Chrome s quest to become the 12th Triple Crown cham- that Tonalist had an advantage over Chrome because pion in thoroughbred racing history, Steve Coburn, the former was rested, whereas the latter had been one of the colt s owners, blasted the Belmont winner. through the rigors of the Triple Crown chase. It's all or nothing, Coburn said. It's not fair to these other horses that have been running their guts out for these people and for the people who believe in them. This is the coward's way out in my opinion. This is a coward's way out. "nearly Three decades earlier, on June 9, 1979, coastal made his second start in 27 days A memorable one" 7 USR Betting guide

9 Nearly three decades earlier, on June 9, 1979, Coastal made his second start in 27 days a memorable one, as he defeated the fresh Spectacular Bid, who was making his second start in 35 days, in the Belmont Stakes. Three years after that, Woody Stephens began his amazing five-year run of Big Apple glory with ConHogwash. Hooey. Hokum. quistador Cielo, a colt who was coming back on five days rest and who was making his fourth start There is, perhaps, no greater lie in the Sport of in 28 days in in the 1982 Test of Champions. Kings and that s saying something than the notion that racing on a consistent basis is detrimen- Conquistador Cielo won by 14 lengths in what, tal to a horse s health. It s kind of like claiming that from a pace standpoint, was one of the most im- regular exercise is harmful to humans. pressive Belmont Stakes wins ever. Since at least 1970 (my bloodshot eyes prevented Add to all this the fact that horses who are on the me from going back any further), every winner of track training early and often following their the Belmont Stakes had raced within the past 36 last race have far more success in the Belmont days every single one. than horses who rest up in the barn, as the following chart graphically illustrates: And prior to Tonalist, who hadn t raced much, period (he came into the Belmont with just four lifetime starts), the last horse to break up a Triple Crown bid was Da Tara, who had started three times in the past 70 days exactly the same number of starts as Big Brown made during that time oh, and Da Tara s last race came on the same day, at the same track, as Brown s too. Workouts Since Last Race Race Number Wins Win Rate Return ROI IV OBIV Zero % $ % One % $ % Two % $ % Three % $ % Four % $ % Fover or more % $ % USR Betting guide

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11 Born for the Belmont By derek Simoni When American Pharoah won the Belmont Stakes last year, he did something that has been accomplished just eight times since 1941.No, I m not talking about winning the Triple Clown that s statistically easy by comparison. I m talking about annexing the Belmont Stakes as a February foal. A dozen horses have won the Test of Champions after first capturing the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes, yet only seven thoroughbreds known to be foaled in the month of February have, likewise, passed the Test. Notable February failures at Big Sandy include California Chrome, Orb, Smarty Jones, War Emblem, Silver Charm and Spectacular Bid. True, Chrome lost to Tonalist, who was also born in the second calendar month of the year, but that s still only seven February foal winners from 67 editions of the Belmont in which the birth date of the victor was known. at THE STaRT OF THE YEaR, WE THinK OF all THESE HORSES as THREE-YEaR- OLDS, TRainER Todd PleTcher Told espn. Now, I know what some of you are thinking: this guy has flipped his lid birthdays as a handicapping factor, he must be joking? Well, all I can say is that many industry insiders believe that foaling dates are of great importance. At the start of the year, we think of all these horses as threeyear-olds, trainer Todd Pletcher told ESPN, but some of them might not actually be three for another two or three months. And 60 or 90 days can be very important in a young horse's development. 10 USR Betting guide

12 A great example of This WAs The legendary forego, Who WAs Born on APril 30, dave Schwartz, who runs the excellent Web site thehorsehandicappingauthority, examined over 638,000 horses that ran in north america in 2014 and found that approximately six percent of them were born in January; 19 percent were born in February; 30 percent were born in both march and april; 14 percent were foaled in may; and the remaining one percent entered the world in later months. and guess what? the kentucky derby, which has long stressed precocity remember that old dosage-plus-experimental-free-handicap system that made the rounds a few years ago? has been dominated by early foals. in fact, using the percentages above to establish impact values, we discover the following: 11 USR Betting guide

13 KentuCKy derby By derek Simoni Kentucky Derby Month Born Winners IV January February March April May June-December Now, the interesting part: Take a look at a similar table documenting Belmont winners whose birthdates were known. 12 USR Betting guide

14 Belmont stakes By derek Simoni Belmont Stakes Month Born Winners IV January February March April May June-December Notice the shift? Instead of February and March being the most prolific foaling months for Belmont winners (like they were for Derby champs), March and April claim that honor. I don t think this is coincidental. Going back to Todd Pletcher s comments, it seems reasonable to assume that the greatest detriment to winning a Triple Crown is not the rigors of the campaign (as is so often lamented in the media), but, rather, the very real possibility that, by the time the Belmont rolls around, later foals have caught up to their more mature rivals. A great example of this was the legendary Forego, who was born on April 30, The gelded son of Forli won just three of his first nine starts before visiting the winner s circle 29 times in his next 42 trips to post en route to three consecutive Horse of the Year titles from In fact, a 1997 study by Bertrand Langlois and Christine Blouin seems to suggest that the month of birth plays a role in total earnings and earnings per start up until the age of five, when the effect dissipates. So, with this in mind, let s take a look at the birth months of this year s Belmont entrants: BELMONT ENTRANT (MONTH BORN) BRODY'S CAUSE (March) CHERRY WINE (February) CREATOR (March) DESTIN (April) EXAGGERATOR (February) FOREVER D'ORO (May) GETTYSBURG (March) GOVERNOR MALIBU (February) LANI (February) SEEKING THE SOUL (May) STRADIVARI (April) SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS (May) TROJAN NATION (March) 14 USR Betting guide

15 GOVERNOR MALIBU Pros: Closed well in the Peter Pan a traditional Belmont Stakes prep to finish a close second to Unified. Since 2000, horses that raced at least once at Belmont Park prior to the Test of Champions have recorded a 1.20 impact value and returned $5.54 for every $2 bet to win. The son of Malibu Moon also has enough early speed to be a factor early. cons: His speed figures and early speed rations are mediocre at best. destin Pros: Ran reasonably well off of a layoff in the Kentucky Derby and has had three workouts since, a tactic that has produced an 86 percent ROI since Additionally, his overall late speed rations (LSRs) rank third in the field, a trait shared by four previous Belmont winners since cons: The Belmont Stakes is all about finding value and, at 6-1 on the morning, Destin offers very little. cherry Wine Pros: Ran the race of his life in the Preakness Stakes to catch a weary Nyquist for second place. cons: His lack of early speed is a huge concern and any kind of regression which I fear is likely makes a win against this caliber unlikely. Worse, steeds with a Brisnet distance rating of 108 or less are 1-for-43 in the Belmont and have produced a -95 percent ROI. Cherry Wine has a rating of 105. SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS Pros: Had a rough trip in Louisville, but still closed like a freight train down the stretch. His last two speed figures also suggest that he may have established a new performance baseline and could be ready to move forward again in the Big Apple. cons: Horses with less than two Quirin speed points (like this guy) are 3-for-53 in the Belmont over the past 16 years. In races with a projected early speed ration (ESR) of -5 or greater (like Saturday s renewal), they are 1-for-17. Contender analysis By derek Simoni 15 USR Betting guide

16 STRADIVARI gettysburg Pros: Ran greenly in the Preakness, which isn t that surprising given his lack of experience. His overall speed and pace figures are strong and the probable soft pace on Saturday suits. Pros: Likely to be on the engine in a race without a lot of early zip (projected ESR of -3). He also has two previous runs over the Belmont Park strip, which is a huge plus. cons: Has only had one workout since his last race and his 5-1 morning line odds hardly entice. cons: Only one horse with more than five Quirin speed points has won the Belmont since 2000; that was American Pharoah last year. Even worse, Gettysburg last competed in an optional claimer not exactly a recipe for Big Apple success. SEEKING THE SOUL Pros: Just broke his maiden in game fashion last time and has shown improvement in every start. cons: Horses that last raced in a maiden or allowance race are 0-for-14 in the Belmont over the past 16 years. Son of Perfect Soul may have some distance limitations too (Brisnet distance rating of 108). FOREVER D ORO Pros: Another who just broke his maiden, this guy earned a race-best -4 LSR in his last start. cons: In addition to the disadvantage of exiting a maiden race (see above), this son of Medaglia d Oro is also slow or so his speed figures imply. 16 USR Betting guide

17 TroJAn nation Pros: Ran lights-out in the Wood Memorial and, outside of the Kentucky Derby, has always given a good account of himself. cons: He s still a maiden; plus, horses with a median ESR of lani Pros: Ran lights-out in the Wood Memorial and, outside of the Kentucky Derby, has always given a good account of himself. cons: He s still a maiden; plus, horses with a median ESR of +1 or greater are 1-for-43 in Elmont, NY. exaggerator Pros: He s the only horse in the field to have met the Belmont Stakes speed par last time, joining 25 others over the past 16 years. Of those 25, six landed in the winner s circle, returning $7.54 for every two bucks bet to win. He also owns my top Perceived Ability Rating (PAR), which has produced the Belmont winner seven times in 16 tries since 2000 (192 percent ROI). cons: Although favorites have historically done well in the Belmont (42.1 percent), they have severely underpaid ($1.55 for every $2 win bet), which I have an inkling will be the case with Exaggerator. The single workout since the Preakness is also a concern. 17 USR Betting guide BRODY S CAUSE Pros: He s been competitive against the best of the best ever since he was a juvenile. His performance in the Kentucky Derby wasn t great, but it wasn t bad either and it came after a big win in the Blue Grass Stakes, giving rise to the possibility that the son of Giant s Causeway may have bounced that day. His 20-1 morning line odds are enticing as well. cons: Dale Romans trainee is another with no (demonstrated) early lick. creator Pros: Was highly regarded in Louisville after a strong run in the Arkansas Derby. cons: In his win in Arkansas, he benefited from a very strong pace (-11 ESR), as the top three finishers were 12th, ninth and 11th (of 12) respectively at the

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19 Conditions Name Record Date Track DF S Odds Purse PC Race Type Form Days Speed Ratings ESR LSR PP 05/18/2013 PIM (race 12) 1-ORB (1-1) 2013 (3): $2,280,900 05/04/13 CD D *5.4 $2,000, KyDerby-G % furlongs (main track) Trainer: Mcgaughey Claude Iii (0-0%-0%-0%) 2012 (2): $54,950 03/30/13 GP D 2.9 $1,000, FlaDerby-G % Purse: $1,000,000 Jockey: Rosario Joel (0-0%-0%-0%) Life: $2,335,850 02/23/13 GP D 5.4 $400,000 6 FntnOYth-G % Projected ESR: -5 LSR: -11 Class Rating: 0.26 Rank: 1 Style: R+2 Exits tougher race. Best last-race speed figure. Speed Rank ESR Rank LSR Rank Date of race, track (abbreviation) and race number. 2 Distance in furlongs and surface. 3 Purse value. 4 Predicted race ESR and LSR. Early position & median ESR: F Front. M/F Middle to front. M/R Middle to rear. R Rear. UK Unknown. ❶ Program number and horse's name. ❷ Trainer 's name (stats at track). ❸ Jockey's name (stats at track). ❹ Class Rating (based on earnings per start) and rank. Data highlights. Early Speed Ration (ESR): A measurement of a horse s early energy expenditure in relation to the total race requirements. The lower the figure, the greater the horse s early exertion in that event. -15= Demanding. -10= Brisk. -5= Moderate. 0= Soft. Tip(s): Animals that combine low ESRs with high speed figures are often prime candidates to win in wire-to-wire fashion. So too are those steeds with a significant overall ESR advantage. Late Speed Ration (LSR): A measurement of a horse s late energy expenditure in relation to the total race requirements. The higher the figure, the greater the horse s late exertion in that event. 0= Excellent. -5= Good. -10= Fair. -15= Poor. Tip(s): Because late speed is measured when each horse is being asked for its maximum effort, LSRs can be a great indication of form as well. Young horses with improving Late Speed Rations are often superior to older, more experienced rivals with established figures. Furthermore, any animal that combines a positive Pace Profile with high relative LSRs and good speed figures must be given serious consideration. Entrants that show positive LSRs or those coming off of a big win punctuated by a superior LSR are especially strong contenders. The Late Speed Rations are also very effective in a negative context as well. Horses with consistently poor figures in relation to the rest of the field make notoriously poor favorites and can often lead to great overlays on other, less fancied runners. Pace Profile: A simple comparison between a horse s Late Speed Ration and the Early Speed Ration of the race in which it was earned. A positive profile is greatly desired and serves to authenticate an impressive LSR. The Pace Profile is an easy, yet crucial means of relating early speed to late speed. Tip(s): The Pace Profile of a particular race can be especially useful when horses are switching distances/surfaces. For example, an animal that has been competing in dirt sprints might be given extra consideration in a turf route if he/she shows a string of positive Pace Profiles, as distance races on the lawn tend to emphasize late speed. Record: Horse's starts, wins, seconds, thirds and earnings over the past two years (age in parenthesis), as well as its career totals. Date: When the race was run. Track: The track over which the race was run. DF: Distance in furlongs of the race. S: Surface on which the race was contested D for dirt, D+ for all-weather and T for turf. (Lower case letters denote inner track.) Odds: Odds in race. An asterisk signifies that the horse was the betting favorite; the letter e indicates the horse was coupled in the wagering. Purse: Monetary value of the race. PC: Purse comparison between today s race and the listed race. A 10 denotes the same value as today s event; higher numbers indicate a larger purse value; and lower ratings specify a smaller purse value. Race Type: Name and/or conditions of the race. Form: Rating representing horse s finishing position and beaten lengths (if any) in the race. A 100 percent rating designates a winning effort, whereas the closer the percentage is to zero, the worse the performance is deemed to have been. Days: Days lapsed since race was run. Speed Ratings: Numerical representation of a how fast the horse ran. Ratings of 100 or greater indicate a performance equal to or exceeding par. ESR: Early Speed Ration (see explanation at left). LSR: Late Speed Ration (see explanation at left). PP: Pace Profile (see explanation at left). A " " sign indicates that the figures were earned over a different surface than today's. Speed, ESR and LSR Rank: Ranking of each horse s median Speed Ratings, ESRs and LSRs. A plus sign (+) denotes that the horse has a significant advantage in that category. Two plus signs (++) indicate that the advantage is overwhelming. 18 USR Betting guide

20 C onditions Name Record Date Track DF S Odds Purse PC Conditions Form Days Speed Ratings ESR LSR PP 06/11/2016 BEL (race 11 GOVERNOR MALIBU (12-1) 2016 (3): $120,00 05/14/1 BEL9 9.0 D 12.5 $200,000 4 PeterPan-G2 94.4% furlongs (main track Trainer: Clement Christophe (49-14%-18% (2): $89,60 04/09/1 LRL2 9.0 D 2.6 $100,000 3 FdrcoTesoB % Purse: $1,500,000 Jockey: Rosario Joel (108-19%-35%-58 Life: $209,60 02/06/1 AQU3 8.3 d 4.6 $100,000 3 sganderb % Projected ESR: -3 LSR: -4 Class Rating: 0.02 Rank: 9 Style: M/F+0 DESTIN (6-1) 2016 (3): $338,00 05/07/1 CD D 18.0 $2,000, KyDerby-G1 28.5% Trainer: Pletcher Todd A (71-17%-25% (2): $52,70 03/12/1 TAM D 3.6 $350,000 5 TamDby-G % Jockey: Castellano J J (103-17%-28%-40 Life: $390,70 02/13/1 TAM5 8.5 D 4.0 $250,000 4 SFDavis-G % Class Rating: 0.03 Rank: 7 Style: M/F-1 CHERRY WINE (8-1) 2016 (3): $467,80 05/21/1 PIM D 17.3 $1,500, Preaknes-G1 77.5% Trainer: Romans Dale (0-0%-0%-0% 2015 (2): $51,07 04/09/1 KEE D 4.9 $1,000,000 8 BlueGras-G1 78.3% Jockey: Lanerie C J (0-0%-0%-0% Life: $518,87 03/19/1 OP D 7.7 $900,000 8 Rebel-G2 46.1% Class Rating: 0.04 Rank: 6 Style: R+2 Disadvantageous pace scenario. Recent LSRs do not meet race avg. SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS (10-1) 2016 (3): $587,00 05/07/1 CD D 24.6 $2,000, KyDerby-G1 46.6% Trainer: Von Hemel Donnie K (0-0%-0% (2): $143,03 04/16/1 OP D 5.4 $1,000,000 8 ArkDerby-G 90.8% Jockey: Smith M E (0-0%-0%-0% Life: $730,03 03/19/1 OP D *2.7 $900,000 8 Rebel-G2 38.8% Class Rating: 0.05 Rank: 5 Style: R+0 Disadvantageous pace scenario. Recent LSRs do not meet race avg. STRADIVARI (5-1) 2016 (3): $127,20 05/21/1 PIM D 8.0 $1,500, Preaknes-G1 55.8% Trainer: Pletcher Todd A (71-17%-25% (2): $27,00 04/17/1 KEE2 9.0 D 1.4 $62,000 2 Alw59585n % Jockey: Velazquez J R (98-19%-32%-45% Life: $154,20 12/05/1 GP1 8.5 D 1.8 $50,000 2 MdSpW 100.0% Class Rating: 0.02 Rank: 10 Style: F-2 Advantageous pace scenario. Best last-race ESR. GETTYSBURG (30-1) 2016 (3): $159,00 05/26/1 BEL8 8.5 D *1.3 $77,000 2 OC80000n1 43.2% Trainer: Asmussen Steven M (16-19%-31% (2): $4,21 04/16/1 OP D 14.4 $1,000,000 8 ArkDerby-G 39.1% Jockey: Lopez Pascacio (0-0%-0%-0% Life: $163,21 03/20/1 SUN9 9.0 D 1.6 $415,000 5 SunFtvRcgB % Class Rating: 0.01 Rank: 11 Style: F-2 Advantageous pace scenario. SEEKING THE SOUL (30-1) 2016 (3): $34,56 05/29/1 CD5 8.0 D 3.3 $50,000 2 MdSpW 100.0% Trainer: Stewart Dallas (1-100%-100% (2): $0 05/07/1 CD3 6.5 D 4.6 $62,000 2 MdSpW 21.3% Jockey: Geroux Florent (0-0%-0%-0 Life: $34,56 02/20/1 FG3 6.0 D 3.2 $40,000 2 MdSpW 86.6% Class Rating: 0.00 Rank: 13 Style: R-4 Disadvantageous pace scenario. Removed blinkers in atest. l FOREVER D'ORO (30-1) 2016 (3): $48,66 05/29/1 BEL5 8.5 D *1.2 $75,000 2 MdSpW 100.0% Trainer: Stewart Dallas (1-100%-100% (2): $0 05/07/1 CD D *2.6 $62,000 2 MdSpW 34.2% Jockey: Ortiz Jose L (203-25%-38%-55 Life: $48,66 04/09/1 KEE4 7.0 D 8.8 $60,000 2 MdSpW 31.7% Class Rating: 0.01 Rank: 12 Style: R+0 Disadvantageous pace scenario. Best last-race LSR. TROJAN NATION (30-1) 2016 (3): $203,44 05/07/1 CD D 42.1 $2,000, KyDerby-G1 0.1% Trainer: Gallagher Patrick (0-0%-0% (2): $9,85 04/09/1 AQU D 81.5 $1,000,000 8 WoodMem-G 99.0% Jockey: Gryder A T (20-10%-20%-25% Life: $213,29 03/06/1 SA6 8.0 D 10.7 $56,000 2 MdSpW 59.8% Class Rating: 0.02 Rank: 8 Style: R+1 Disadvantageous pace scenario. LANI (20-1) 2016 (3): $1,260,98 05/21/1 PIM D 30.4 $1,500, Preaknes-G1 42.9% Trainer: Matsunaga Mikio (0-0%-0% (2): $150,63 05/07/1 CD D 29.3 $2,000, KyDerby-G1 9.4% Jockey: Take Y (0-0%-0%-0% Life: $1,411,61 03/26/1 MEY3 9.4 D $2,000, U Drby Spns-G 100.0% 77 Class Rating: 0.11 Rank: 2 Style: R+7 Disadvantageous pace scenario. Recent LSRs do not meet race avg EXAGGERATOR (9-5) 2016 (3): $1,988,00 05/21/1 PIM D 2.6 $1,500, Preaknes-G % Trainer: Desormeaux J Keith (0-0%-0% (2): $983,12 05/07/1 CD D 5.1 $2,000, KyDerby-G1 91.7% Jockey: Desormeaux K J (0-0%-0%-0% Life: $2,971,12 04/09/1 SA8 9.0 D 3.4 $1,000,000 8 SADerby-G % Class Rating: 0.18 Rank: 1 Style: R+0 Disadvantageous pace scenario. Best last-race speedfigure. BRODY'S CAUSE (20-1) 2016 (3): $600,00 05/07/1 CD D 24.9 $2,000, KyDerby-G1 15.7% Trainer: Romans Dale (0-0%-0%-0% 2015 (2): $523,13 04/09/1 KEE D 4.2 $1,000,000 8 BlueGras-G % Jockey: Saez Luis (125-11%-22%-37% Life: $1,123,13 03/12/1 TAM D *2.3 $350,000 5 TamDby-G2 5.7% Class Rating: 0.09 Rank: 3 Style: R+0 Disadvantageous pace scenario. CREATOR (10-1) 2016 (3): $740,00 05/07/1 CD D 16.4 $2,000, KyDerby-G1 0.9% Trainer: Asmussen Steven M (16-19%-31% (2): $28,32 04/16/1 OP D 11.6 $1,000,000 8 ArkDerby-G 100.0% Jockey: Ortiz Irad Jr (147-16%-39%-49 Life: $768,32 03/19/1 OP D 8.2e $900,000 8 Rebel-G2 67.9% Class Rating: 0.05 Rank: 4 Style: R+2 Disadvantageous pace scenario. Speed Rank ESR Rank LSR Rank / / USR Betting guide

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