Labor Market Effects of Temporary Work Visas: Evidence from the Mexican Bracero Exclusion
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1 Labor Market Effects of Temporary Work Visas: Evidence from the Mexican Bracero Exclusion Michael Clemens Ethan Lewis Hannah Postel AEA Meetings January 7, 2018
2 Outline Setting New data and a model Results Mechanisms An agenda
3 Outline Setting New data and a model Results Mechanisms An agenda
4 Bracero workers
5 Bracero workers
6 Total bracero workers
7 Labor-market effects Studies of the operation of the Mexican labor program have clearly established that it is adversely affecting the wages, working conditions, and employment opportunities of our own agricultural workers.
8 The 1959 evaluation
9 The 1959 evaluation
10 The 1959 evaluation
11 The 1959 evaluation
12 Outline Setting New data and a model Results Mechanisms An agenda
13
14 Archival data
15 Archival data
16 Model of induced technical advance
17 Outline Setting New data and a model Results Mechanisms An agenda
18 L fraction Mexican Average Mexican fraction (season peak) Year Bracero fraction (B/L) in 1955: No exposure (B/L = 0) Low exposure (0 < B/L < 0.2) High exposure (B/L 0.2)
19 Real wages Hourly wage, composite (1965 US$/hour) Year Bracero fraction (B/L) in 1955: No exposure (B/L = 0) Low exposure (0 < B/L < 0.2) High exposure (B/L 0.2)
20 Hired seasonal farm employment Mexican workers Avg. Mexican workers per state (year peak) 0 40,000 80,000 Avg. domestic workers per state (year peak) 0 40,000 80,000 Domestic workers Year Year Bracero fraction (B/L) in 1955: No exposure (B/L = 0) Low exposure (0 < B/L < 0.2) High exposure (B/L 0.2)
21 Baltagi-Li semiparametric FE: Wage Wage state, quarter-by-year FE ln Mexican workers state, quarter-by-year FE
22 Baltagi-Li semiparametric FE: Employment ln Domestic workers state, month-by-year FE ln Mexican workers state, month-by-year FE
23 Robustness Domestic migrants or year-round Other foreign Pre-trends Treatment year Handling of zeros SUTVA
24 Robustness Domestic migrants or year-round Other foreign Pre-trends Treatment year Handling of zeros SUTVA
25 Robustness Domestic migrants or year-round Other foreign Pre-trends Treatment year Handling of zeros SUTVA
26 Robustness Domestic migrants or year-round Other foreign Pre-trends Treatment year Handling of zeros SUTVA
27 Robustness Domestic migrants or year-round Other foreign Pre-trends Treatment year Handling of zeros SUTVA
28 Robustness Domestic migrants or year-round Other foreign Pre-trends Treatment year Handling of zeros SUTVA
29 Robustness Domestic migrants or year-round Other foreign Pre-trends Treatment year Handling of zeros SUTVA
30 Outline Setting New data and a model Results Mechanisms An agenda
31 Tomato mechanization
32 Tomato mechanization
33 Tomato harvester adoption Peak bracero stock, California 0 50, , Year Tomato harvest mechnization, California (%) Peak annual bracero stock (left axis) Tomato harvest mechnization (right axis)
34 Tomato harvester adoption Peak bracero stock, Ohio 0 50, , Tomato harvest mechnization, Ohio (%) Year Peak annual bracero stock (left axis) Tomato harvest mechnization (right axis)
35 Differential Rybczynski effects: Event study Event study coefficient Tomatoes Year Event study coefficient Cotton Year Event study coefficient Sugar beets Year Event study coefficient Asparagus Year Event study coefficient Strawberries (fresh) Year Event study coefficient Lettuce Year Event study coefficient Celery Year Event study coefficient Cucumbers (pickling) Year Event study coefficient Citrus Year
36 Outline Setting New data and a model Results Mechanisms An agenda
37 Moving forward 1 Bracero exclusion Direct evidence of tech. advance Rybczynski effects Other adjustment margins
38 Moving forward 1 Bracero exclusion Direct evidence of tech. advance Rybczynski effects Other adjustment margins
39 Moving forward 1 Bracero exclusion Direct evidence of tech. advance Rybczynski effects Other adjustment margins
40 Moving forward 1 Bracero exclusion Direct evidence of tech. advance Rybczynski effects Other adjustment margins
41 Moving forward 1 Bracero exclusion Direct evidence of tech. advance Rybczynski effects Other adjustment margins 2 Migration restrictions Natural experiments Lee et al. 2017; Mayda et al. 2017, Feigenberg & Lubotsky 2017
42 Moving forward 1 Bracero exclusion Direct evidence of tech. advance Rybczynski effects Other adjustment margins 2 Migration restrictions Natural experiments Lee et al. 2017; Mayda et al. 2017, Feigenberg & Lubotsky 2017
43 Moving forward 1 Bracero exclusion Direct evidence of tech. advance Rybczynski effects Other adjustment margins 2 Migration restrictions Natural experiments Lee et al. 2017; Mayda et al. 2017, Feigenberg & Lubotsky 2017
44 Moving forward 1 Bracero exclusion Direct evidence of tech. advance Rybczynski effects Other adjustment margins 2 Migration restrictions Natural experiments Lee et al. 2017; Mayda et al. 2017, Feigenberg & Lubotsky Induced technical advance Upward-sloping demand? Hornbeck & Naidu 2014; Gray et al. 2017, Lew & Cater 2017
45 Moving forward 1 Bracero exclusion Direct evidence of tech. advance Rybczynski effects Other adjustment margins 2 Migration restrictions Natural experiments Lee et al. 2017; Mayda et al. 2017, Feigenberg & Lubotsky Induced technical advance Upward-sloping demand? Hornbeck & Naidu 2014; Gray et al. 2017, Lew & Cater 2017
46 Moving forward 1 Bracero exclusion Direct evidence of tech. advance Rybczynski effects Other adjustment margins 2 Migration restrictions Natural experiments Lee et al. 2017; Mayda et al. 2017, Feigenberg & Lubotsky Induced technical advance Upward-sloping demand? Hornbeck & Naidu 2014; Gray et al. 2017, Lew & Cater 2017
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