2006 Performance Capital Market Day Presentation 30th January 2007
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1 2006 Performance Capital Market Day Presentation 30th January 2007
2 2006 Production versus Forecast bopd 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 Original Forecast Tunisia Russia (excl. minority) Venezuela France Netherlands Indonesia Norway UK 10,000 5,000 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec WF
3 2006 Production Short Fall (excl. Russia) UK - Heather Drilling, 1700 boepd Venezuela, 1400 boepd Project Delays, 900 boepd UK Water Injection, 4500 boepd Budget 36,000 boepd Forecast 27,500 boepd WF
4 Broom Forecast Performance against Budget No water injection for 7 weeks Start 2 pump operations 18,000 1 pump operation unable to maintain 35,000 blpd Shut in producer difficult to start due to low pressure 18,000 Budget 16,000 16,000 Forecast 14,000 14,000 12,000 12,000 boepd 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 2006 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 0 WF
5 Broom Forecast Performance against Budget 40,000 Broom Gross Production 2006 Gross Liquid bsw f'cast Gross Oil liquid f'cast oil f'cast Gross Oil 2007 Budget BSW 200% 35, % Oil, Liquid bpd 30,000 25,000 20,000 15, % 140% 120% 100% 80% Water Cut 10,000 60% 40% 5,000 20% 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 0% 70,000 60,000 50,000 Broom Gross Injection 2006 Gross Wat Inj f'cast wat inj Water Injection 2007 Budget bpd 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec WF
6 Heather Forecast Performance against Budget Rig reactivation stopped due to unforseen diving activities 6,000 5,000 Drilling delays Budget Forecast 4,000 boepd 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 2006 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec WF
7 Tunisia - Oudna Field Onstream Lundin Petroleum 50% (operator) Atlantis 50% (Tunisian Govt 20% buy in option) Production onstream at over 20,000 bopd (gross) Average production for 2007 forecast at >14,000 bopd (gross) Produced so far 1.1 MMBO 2 liftings: 550,000 bbls End of Dec 525,000 bbls End of Jan WF
8 Oudna Performance Average production from 1st January 2007 > 21,000 bopd 35,000 Oil Rate Water Injection Rate 30,000 25,000 20,000 bpd 15,000 10,000 5, Nov 18.Nov 25.Nov 02.Dec 09.Dec 16.Dec 23.Dec 30.Dec 06.Jan 13.Jan 20.Jan WF
9 2006 Margin Netback USD/boe Production (MMboe) Presented Jan USD/boe Excl Russia Russia Total Revenue Cost of operations Tariffs Production & sales taxes Stock movements Depletion Margin Netback WF
10 2006 Revenue Netback USD/boe Revenue Presented Jan Forecast* Government take Gas price differential Quality differential UK Inventory movement Hedging Tariff receipts and other income Effective sales price per barrel *Excl Russia WF
11 2006 Cost of Operations Capital Market Day MMboe x USD/boe = MUSD Forecast MMboe x USD/boe = MUSD Increase in Actual Cost = 6% WF
12 2006 Forecast Development Capex 290 MUSD Tunisia, 73.3 UK, 75.8 France, 13.4 Russia, 9.7 Indonesia, 9.5 Other, 3.9 Norway, WF
13 2006 Forecast Development Capex Norway (104.4 MUSD) Alvheim development Jotun infill drilling UK (75.8 MUSD) Thistle shut down & facility work Heather drilling & facility work Broom long lead items for 2007 drilling Tunisia (73.3 MUSD) Oudna development France (13.4 MUSD) Villeperdue infill wells WF
14 2006 Forecast Exploration Capex 90 MUSD Other, 4.0 New Ventures, 2.2 France, 3.4 Ireland, 5.7 Russia, 23.9 Sudan, 7.0 Indonesia, 7.7 Norway, 13.9 Congo (Brazzaville), 10.7 UK, 11.5 WF
15 2006 Forecast Exploration Capex Russia (23.9 MUSD) Drilling preparation Seismic acquisition Norway (13.9 MUSD) East Kameleon Well drilled PL335,PL338 postponed to 2007 Volund PDO preparation New licence applications UK (11.5 MUSD) 3D seismic Geological studies and seismic reprocessing New licence applications Congo (Brazzaville) (10.7 MUSD) Acquisition cost 3D Seismic WF
16 2006 Forecast Exploration Capex Indonesia (7.7 MUSD) 6 Salawati wells Jati well Sudan Ireland (7.0 MUSD) 2D seismic Drilling preparation (5.7 MUSD) Drilled Inishbeg well France (3.4 MUSD) Drilled Val des Marais well Netherland (1.1 MUSD) Drilled F12 well Leeuwarden seismic WF
17 2006 Forecast Exploration Write-Offs 16 MUSD Ireland Donegal well & licence costs France VDM well Indonesia Jati well Netherlands F12 well Nigeria licence costs New Ventures MUSD WF
18 Reserves and Contingent Resources WF Capital Market Day Presentation 30th January 2007
19 2007 Proven & Probable Reserves Russia (30.3) France (22.6) Netherlands (5.4) Total MMboe Gas 10.9% Indonesia (17.6) Oil 89.1% Norway (47.2) UK (49.3) Tunisia (3.8) mmboe Produced (exclrussia) Venezuela Mixed Enterprise new reserves (excl Acquisitions) Acquisitions Increase in Reserves 29% Reserves Replacement Ratio 122% WF
20 Historical Reserves MMboe Russia Norway U.K. Venezuela Tunisia Indonesia Netherlands France WF
21 Main Reserves Increases Norway Alvheim - East Kameleon from Contingent Resources to Reserves Alvheim Boa additional well Volund Waterflood from Contingent Resources to Reserves France Villeperdue Coiled tubing drilling from Contingent Resources to Reserves Rhaethian Fields Better water injection performance, cold water fracs Acquisitions 10% of Singa Gas Development in Indonesia Russian Assets Peik (50% Norway, 33.3% UK) not in reserves yet! WF
22 Paris Basin Fields Oil Field Production Licence Exploration Licence Paris Hautefeuille Villeperdue Epernay La Motte Noire Vert La Gravelle Val de Marais Soudron Chalonssur-Marne Dommartin Merisier Courdemanges 0 KM 20 Grandville Rhetien Fields, Production Forecast, Gross bopd La Motte Noire La Motte Noire P 1,800 1, Courdemanges Courdemanges P Vert la Gravelle Vert la Gravelle P 1,400 1,200 1,000 WF Dommartin Dommartin P Grandville Grandville P Soudron Soudron P
23 Production - Historical and Forecast 176 million barrels of proven and probable reserves Production (Mboepd) 120 As per 2006 Gaffney Cline audit Peik acquisition P Reserves WF
24 Resource Classification System Society of Petroleum Engineers/World Petroleum Council Classification PRODUCTION RESERVES Commercial 1P 2P 3P Proved Proved & Proved, Prob. Probable & Possible CONTINGENT RESOURCES Discovered but not currently commercial PROSPECTIVE RESOURCES Exploration Prospectivity WF
25 Contingent Resources 'Best Estimate' 122 Mmboe net Lundin Congo (Brazzaville), 6.6 Indonesia, 9.3 France, 12.4 Norway, 39.7 Tunisia, 4.9 UK, 49.3 WF
26 Contingent Resource Movement WF Move to Reserves Increases Reductions Additions Removed MMBOE Solan, Aje, Venezuela, Seven Heads East Kameleon, Volund, Villeperdue, Wakamuk Thistle Redevelopment, Broom North, Paris Basin - Rhaethian fields Heather Cut off, Oudna, SE-Tor Farm out Congo (Brazzaville)
27 Production - Historical and Forecast A further 122 million barrels of contingent resources Production (Mboepd) Contingent resources Peik acquisition P Reserves WF
28 2007 Production and Development Capital Market Day Presentation 30th January 2007
29 2007 Production Forecast Yearly average 41,000 boepd 60,000 50,000 40,000 BOEPD 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2007 Norway UK Tunisia Netherlands Indonesia France Russia (excl. minorities) WF
30 Forecast Assumptions Low expectation of Heather Trias well Alvheim planned start up date in May, but for forecasting purposes first production assumed in July. Production slowly increasing to capacity in November Oudna equity drops to 40%, assuming ETAP back in as of March WF
31 2007 Development CAPEX Russia, 40.1 Norway, 47.8 France Paris Basin, 19.3 Indonesia, 20.0 Netherlands, Forecast MMUSD UK, WF
32 2007 Projects - UK UK (156 MUSD) Thistle (99% Lundin Petroleum) Rig reactivation, Shutdown, direct oil export Produced Water Re Injection 3D seismic Heather (100% Lundin Petroleum) Heather Triassic well Coiled Tubing Programme Facilities and Crane Upgrades Broom (55% Lundin Petroleum) West Heather Infill well Produced Water Handling WF
33 2007 Projects - Norway Norway (47.8 MUSD) Alvheim (15% Lundin Petroleum) 6 Development wells FPSO Topsides Offshore installation First oil in May Volund (35% Lundin Petroleum) Subsea facilities WF
34 2007 Projects - Russia Russia (40.1 MUSD) Ashirovskoye Orenburg (50% Lundin Petroleum equity, 100% funding) 7 Appraisal and Development wells Production Facilities Field Development Plan Kaspiskoye Kalmykia (51% Lundin Petroleum equity, 100% funding) Oil treatment upgrade Oil gathering system upgrade Field Development Plan Solchemyu Talyu Komi (50% Lundin Petroleum) 7 Development Wells 3 Sidetracks Recher Komi (50% Lundin Petroleum) 2 Development Wells 3D Seismic WF
35 2007 Projects - Others France (19.3 MUSD) Villeperdue (Lundin Petroleum 100%) Rhaethian Fields (Lundin Petroleum 80%) Indonesia (20.0 MUSD) Salawati Basin (Lundin Petroleum 25.94%) Salawati Island (Lundin Petroleum 14.51%) Singa (Lundin Petroleum 25.88%) 4 Underbalanced Coiled Tubing Horizontal wells 2 Development wells 10 Development wells 2 Development wells Field Development Facilities Netherlands (6.9 MUSD) Leeuwarden (Lundin Petroleum 7.23%) K5F (Lundin Petroleum 2.04%) 3 Development wells Subsea development facilities 2 Development wells WF
36 Development Drilling Sequence UK Heather - 2P 4 Work-Overs, 2 infill Heather - CR Trias Potential infill Thistle-2P 4 work overs 2 work overs Thistle-CR 4 development wells Broom development Infill Infill Peik Development Peik Development SW Heather Norway Alvheim Development 7 Development wells 1 Prod Volund Development 2 Prod/ 1 Inj 1Prod PL148 Appraisal Development PL006c Appraisal Russia Ashirovskoye 7 Development wells potential development drilling potential development drilling Kaspiskoye potential development drilling potential development drilling Solchemyu Talyu 7 Development wells and 3 sidetracks Recher 2 Wells France Villeperdue - 2P 4 Coiled Tubing Wells Villeperdue - CR 4 Coiled Tubing Wells 4 Coiled Tubing Wells Rhaethian Fields - 2P 2 infill wells Rhaethian Fields - CR 16 infill wells Aquitaine 2 development wells Indonesia Salawatis 12 development wells Singa 2 development wells Netherlands Leeuwarden 3 wells K5F 2 wells Tunisia Oudna - CR 1 infill well WF P Reserves Contingent Resources Awaiting Approval
37 Life Cycle Capital Expenditure Country UK Norway Russia Average Lifecycle Capex (USD/boe) end of field life end of field life Remarks Increased Costs to develop Contingent Resources and attract potential 3rd party business Spent money on Alvheim in 2006, Volund development France Additional development drilling resulting in additional reserves Indonesia Singa Development Netherlands Additional development drilling resulting in additional reserves Tunisia Oudna development cost spent in 2006 Capex defined as future capital expenditure divided by future production (2P reserves), excluding site restoration costs WF
38 2007 Development Activity Norway Indonesia Norway Activity Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q Q3 Q4 Alvheim (PL203) First Oil (Marathon Operator) Volund (PL150) PDO Approval First Oil Peik (PL088) Indonesia PDO Approval First Oil Singa Gas Sales Agreement (GSA) - (Medco Operator) First Gas WF
39 2007 Production - Resumption of Growth 2003 Actual 16,100 BOEPD 2004 Actual 28,900 BOEPD 2005 Actual 33,100 BOEPD Production Increase over 40% 2006 Forecast 29,000 BOEPD 2007 Forecast 41,000 BOEPD End 2007 Forecast >50,000 BOEPD WF
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