Årsstämma 2009 WF10671A C. Ashley Heppenstall, Koncernchef och VD Stockholm, 13 maj 2009

Transcription

1 1 Årsstämma 2009 WF10671A C. Ashley Heppenstall, Koncernchef och VD Stockholm, 13 maj 2009

2 2 Financial Crisis WF10671A 05.09

3 3 The Perfect Storm

4 4 The Wider Economy

5 5 No Credit WF10671A 05.09

6 6 Historical Oil Prices USD/bbl Brent Crude Price

7 7 Supply and Demand

8 8 Oil Price to Increase USD/bbl Brent Crude Price ?

9 9 Oil to Remain Dominant

10 10 World Population ,309 9, ,909 World Population ,529 3,686 5, expected to continue Source: United Nations Population Division, March 2009

11 11 Demand for Oil United States 300 million 20.5 million bbl/d 25 bbl/capita/year China 1.3 billion 7.5 million bbl/d 2.1 bbl/capita/year India 1.1 billion 2.5 million bbl/d 0.8 bbl/capita/year

12 12 Liquids Demand Driven by Developing World Liquids Consumption Growth Liquids Consumption % million barrels of liquids per day Regional Share of World Consumption 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% % Other Non-OECD Other Developing Asia China OECD Strong growth in the developing world has driven oil demand growth Source: EIA

13 13 Increasing Oil Demand Oil Demand Forecast GDP 4% / Oil 1.6% / 118mmbd GDP 3% / Oil 1.2% / 108mmbd million barrels per day GDP 2% / Oil 0.8% / 100mmbd Source: EIA history with projected constant growth

14 14 Oil Supply Billion Barrels per year Past Discovery Future Discovery Production

15 15 Reliant upon Giant Oilfields Majority of giants are >50 years old Giants represent 60% of world supply 20 largest fields supply 25% of world supply 80 World Crude Oil Production Daily production [Mb/d] % 25% Historical Production All Giants Top 20 Giants Source: Robelius (2007)

16 16 Reduction in Production through Natural Decline Potential for a fresh supply crunch in the near term % p.a. +1.2% p.a. Liquids Production & Demand (mmbpd) % p.a. High Standard High Standard Low Worst Case Decline +1.5% p.a. +3.0% % p.a. +5.0% p.a. +7.0% p.a Source: Rubelius (2007)

17 17 Cost of Development Oil price to provide for a profitability of 10% Oil shales 100 USD/bbl Ultra deep water Deep water Other conventional Extra heavy oil Enhanced Recovery Arctic 20 OPEC Middle East Billion of barrels WF10625 t Source: AIE, Total

18 18 Lundin Petroleum - Asset Summary United Kingdom 4 production licences, 18 exploration licences Ireland 2 exploration licences France 14 production licences, 6 exploration licences Congo Brazzaville 2 exploration licences Norway 3 production licences, 1 development licence, 32 exploration licences Netherlands 18 production licences, 1 exploration licence Tunisia 1 production licence, 2 development licences Russia 4 producing licences, 1 exploration licence Cambodia 1 exploration licence Vietnam 1 exploration licence Malaysia 3 exploration licences Indonesia 3 production licences, 4 exploration licences 2 study option licences Three Core Areas: Europe, Russia, Far East WF tcore

19 19 Reserves Growth 250 Reserves Replacement Ratio of 357% (cumulative production: 62.5 MMBOE) 200 MMboe Russia U.K. Norway Tunisia Venezuela Netherlands Indonesia France WF

20 Proven & Probable Reserves Russia (18.6) France (26.4) Gas 14.5% Indonesia (15.2) Oil 85.5% Netherlands (4.3) Total MMboe U.K. (82.1) MMboe Produced (forecast) New reserves (excl sales/acquisitions) Sales/acquisitions MMboe Norway (70.5)* Tunisia (0.4) Reserves Replacement Ratio 394% Increase in Reserves 26% WF * Excluding Luno

21 21 Production Increase 2008 Production Q Production 22% 31,700 boepd 38,800 boepd WF

22 22 Cash Flow Remains Strong 12 months ,000 MSEK 3 months MSEK 2008 Oil Price Q Oil Price $97/bbl $44.5/bbl 54% WF

23 23 Alvheim Reserves > 200 MMboe Production > 100,000 boepd

24 24 Luno Discovery Peik field Alvheim field PL088 P090 PL413 PL036c PL363 One of the largest Norwegian discoveries in the last 10 years 008 UK Volund field 009 PL340 PL PL203 PL505 PL PL412 Norway 0026 Luno discovery PL167 PL167B PL338 PL PL359 PL PL409 Lundin Petroleum Operator Lundin Petroleum Partner 0 KM 20

25 25 StatoilHydro Partners Lundin in Luno Area Exploration UK PL304 0 KM 20 16/ /1-8 16/2-1 16/1-4 Luno discovery 16/2-3 16/2-4 RAGNAR ROCK PL359 Lundin (Operator) 40% StatoilHydro 30% SLEIPNER WEST PL338 PL PL265 PL410 PL502 PL410 Lundin (Operator) 70% StatoilHydro 30% SLEIPNER EAST PL409 PL409 Lundin (Operator) 90% StatoilHydro 10% Norway Oil Gas Condensate

26 26 Success in Norway 40 Number of Licences

27 27 Russia - Lagansky RUSSIA Kazakhstan Caspain Sea Kazhakstan China Mongolia Astrakhan Field 100 tcfg CPC Pipeline Russia Petrovskaya Morskaya Astrakhan Kalamkas Field 1-2 BBO Atyrau Tengiz Field 9 BBO Morskaya discovery in Million barrels Caspian Field Rakushechnoye Field 4.4 tcfg Kashagan Field 15 BBO Viktor Filanovsky 600 MMBO, 1.2 tcfg Korchagin Field 380 MMBO Sarmatskoye Field Khvalynskoye Field 266 MMBO Makhachkala Caspian Sea Aktau Oil Field Gas Condensate Oil Pipeline Gas Pipeline Terminal

28 28 Russia - Lagansky

29 29 Russia - Lagansky 0 KM 20 Petrovskaya Prospect Lundin Concession Oil Field Northern Caspian Gas Field Prospects Morskaya Discovery Kaspiskoye The next exploration well in Russia will be drilled on the Petrovskaya prospect Laganskaya-1 Rakushechnoye Field 4.4 TCF Viktor Filanovski 600 MMbbls 1.2 TCF Potential 300 MMboe Lagansky Block Morskaya-1 COC well Rak-4 SeveroRakushechny Rak-1 Rak-2 Yuri Korchagin

30 30 Core Area - South East Asia Exploration THAILAND Country Exploration Licences Block E CAMBODIA VIETNAM Block 06/94 SB303 Cambodia Indonesia Malaysia Vietnam Total Cakalang Baronang SABAH MALAYSIA PM308A & B Jemaja Sokang BRUNEI SARAWAK Borneo SUMATRA Lematang KALIMANTAN SULAWESI WEST PAPUA Rangkas INDONESIA Salawati Basin/ Salawati Island Sareba PAPUA JAVA Lundin Petroleum Licence Direct Joint Study Area AUSTRALIA WF

31 31 Value Creation 120 CAGR 47.5% LUPE share price SEK per share