Exploring the Evidence of Peak Oil Production. Kjell Aleklett. Uppsala University, Sweden. Kjell Aleklett

Transcription

1 Exploring the Evidence of Peak Oil Production Uppsala University, Sweden

2 Uppsala University

3 Executive board: President:, Professor, Uppsala University, Sweden, Chairman: Colin J. Campbell, Dr, Cork, Ireland Secretary: Roger W. Bentley, Dr, Reading University, UK, Member: Peter Gerling, Dr, BGR, Hannover, Germany ASPO is a network of scientists, affiliated with European institutions and universities, having an interest in determining the date and impact of the peak and decline of the world's production of oil and gas, due to resource constraints. Its mission is to: 1. Define and evaluate the world's endowment of oil and gas; 2. Model depletion, taking due account of demand, economics, technology and politics; 3. Raise awareness of the serious consequences for Mankind. ASPO presently has 26 members in: Austria, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Switzerland, Sweden and the United Kingdom

4 Fundamental facts Energy can never be produced, just transformed from one form to another. Limited recourses are limited.

5 The future of energy The end of the Oil Age Oct 23rd 2003 Leaders from The Economist print edition

6

7 The dream factories Fathi Birol

8 = Scenarios

9 The world needs new oil fields ExxonMobil: In other words, by 2015, we will need to find, develop and produce a volume of new oil and gas that is equal to eight out of every 10 barrels being produced today.

10

11

12 How much energy is bound in oil? 1 decilitre of oil contains 1 kwh What can you do with 1 kwh? You can move a small car to the top of the Eiffel tower!

13 Oil is the driving force of the world economy Relation between Oil Demand and GDP Growth, figure 3.1 in WEO2004

14 TWh 700 Energy in Sweden during 100 years Nuclear A factor of five Oil and gas Hydro 0 Cole Bio

15 Olja föder välfärd

16

17 M. King Hubbert f. 1903, d 1989 "Our ignorance is not so vast as our failure to use what we know."

18 A limited resource Time structure for pouring Coca-Cola into a glass Volume (cl) Time (sec)

19 Strawberry field

20

21 Oil reserve

22

23 5 4 3 US Lower 48 US Lower 48: annual oil "mean" discovery & production with Hubbert discovery model discovery smooth 5 yr model Hubbert disc. production Hubbert disc. shift 35 yr oil price 2 proration 1 deepwater depression Jean Laherrère Jan year

24 5 4 3 US Lower 48 US Lower 48: annual oil "mean" discovery & production with Hubbert discovery model 35 years discovery smooth 5 yr model Hubbert disc. production Hubbert disc. shift 35 yr oil price 2 proration 1 deepwater depression Jean Laherrère Jan year

25 USA wildcats

26 5 4 3 US Lower 48 US Lower 48: annual oil "mean" discovery & production with Hubbert discovery model discovery smooth 5 yr model Hubbert disc. production Hubbert disc. shift 35 yr oil price 2 proration 1 deepwater depression Jean Laherrère Jan year

27 EXPERIENCE: U. S. LOWER 48 OIL PRODUCTION Dramatic Improvement in Oil Field Technology 3.5 Production PRODUCTION (Billions of Barrels per Year) Price PRICE (2003 $ per barrels) High prices & advanced technology did not reverse trends! SAIC / MISI

28 Data published by ExxonMobil Past Discovery Future Discovery Production Gb

29

30 Peak in production

31

32 Asia Pacific Dependency of Middle East Oil Data presented at the APERC Energy Outlook Workshop, 16 September 2004, Tokyo, Japan, by Yoshiki Ogawa

33

34

35 Aging Youth Mature

36 IEA production forecast

37 Production The rest of the world 1 barrel = 159 liter Production 2001 = 77.0 x 365 = million barrels Production 2025 = x 365 = million barrels Average during 25 years = ( )/2 = mb Average production = 36 billion barrels per year Production during 25 years = 25 x 36 = 900 billion barrels Pretended production during 25 years 900 billion barrels Production during the last 100 years 900 billion barrels IEA: Production billion barrels

38

39 Global production, export and in-house crude oil statistic Thousend barrel per day Production Expoert Inhouse Projected demand increase : Million barrels per day Projected in-house production : Million barrels per day Projected export production : Million barrels per day Oil exporting countries must increase their export with 17% in 6 years

40 Oil exporting countries Saudi Arabia Russian Federation Norway Iran Nigeria Venezuela United Arab Emirates Kuwait Iraq Mexico Libya Kazakhstan Angola Qatar Canada Oman Syria Vietnam Yemen Malaysia

41 Oil Exporting Countries Oil export, Mbpd 10,00 9,00 8,00 7,00 6,00 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,00 1,00 0,00 Countries with export capacity Saudi Arabia Russian Federation Norway Iran Nigeria Venezuela United Arab Emirates Kuwait Iraq Mexico Libya Kazakhstan Angola Qatar Canada Oman Syria Vietnam Yemen Malaysia 2004

42 Import of crude oil Crude oil, Mbpy USA Japan China Germany South Korea France Italy India Spain Netherlands Taiwan Belgium-Lux. Singapore Thailand Turky

43

44 How to plan production from an oilfield

45 Production in reality 600 Production of oil and LNG from Statfjord, Norge Accumulerad produktion [miljoner fat] (Produktion per år)*10 [miljoner fat]

46 Production from individual fields in Norway, Ekofisk was first

47 Production from individual fields in Norway

48 Production from individual fields in Norway

49 Prudhoe Bay - Reported Reserves Reported ReservesGb

50 Prudhoe Bay

51 35 Majnoon Iraq Karamay Complex China East Texas USA Umm Shaif Abu Dhabi Panshan China Sabriya Kuwait

52

53

54 Is Russia our future?

55 Russia

56 Oil Discovery and Production of Russia Production Discovery Production [Gb] Discovery [Gb] Year 0

57

58 250 Cumulative Oil Discovery and Production of Russia Cumulative Amount [Gb] Gb to produce Production Discovery Year

59 Oil Discovery and Production of Kazakhstan Production Discovery Production [Gb] Discovery [Gb] Year 0.0

60

61 Qatar The Oil Triangle Within the Oil Triangle you can find roughly 60 percent of the remaining oil reserves in the world. The 2001 Cheney report, US Energy Policy, says that in year 2020 around 54 to 67 percent of the world producttion of oil needs to come from the Oil Triangle.

62

63 Sadad Al Husseini 26-Oct-2004 Sadad Al Husseini, just retired as vice-president of the Saudi oil company Aramco: The American government's forecast for future oil supplies are a "dangerous overestimate".

64

65 The Bab Field

66

67 Oil Discovery and Production of the Middle East Gulf 12.0 Production 120 Forecast US DOE Discovery Production [G b] 6.0 New forecast ASPO 60 Discovery [G b] Year

68

69 Gas reserves according to IEA

70 The discovery of gas has peaked

71 Gas Becoming Global Net Exports, GCFD Net Imports, GCFD & % Demand U.S./Canada 0% 8% 12% Total Europe 36% 51% 65% Russia & Caspian < Africa Middle East Asia Pacific 9% 10% 17% Latin America 0 2 5

72

73

74 World Production of Hydrocarbons Production [Gboe] Non-Conventional Gas Gas Gasplant NGL Condensate Polar Oil Deepwater Oil Heavy Oil Conventional Oil Year

75 Ackumulerad Produktion av Primär Energi från Olja och Gas från Ackumulerad Produktion av Primär Energi [ZJ] Spännvidd av IPCC:s Scenarier 10 Spännvidd av UHDSG:s Uppskattningar

76

77 10 new Saudi Arabia 100 mm b/d 80 mm b/d 60 mm b/d 40 mm b/d Reservoir capability declines: the leaking bucket syndrome 82 +/- 3-5 % capability decline rate 2% increase mmbd - 59 mmbd mmbd 20 mm b/d Sadad Al Husseini: 97.6 mmbd = 10 Saudi Arabias by

78

79 Resulting Oil Production from Canada s s Oil Sands, Canada s s Conventional oil and the North Sea 8000 Thousand BBls Per Day Gap! Year Conventional Oil Production, Canada + The North Sea OSTRM Oil Sands Production Forecast

80 Production of oil from the rest of the world Forecast EIA

81

82 Robert Hirsch in a report to DoE SUM OF WEDGES 30 Impact (MM bpd) EOR Coal Liquids Heavy Oil Years After Crash Program Initiation GTL Eff. Vehicles Delay, then rapid growth. Roughly 25 MM bpd at 15 years after crash program start. SAIC / MISI

83 Deutsche Bank, December 2, 2004 The ASPO view The end-of-the-fossil-hydrocarbons scenario is not therefore a doom-and gloom picture painted by pessimistic end-of-the world prophets, but a view of scarcity in the coming years and decades that must be taken seriously. Forward-looking politicians, company chiefs and economists should prepare for this in good time, to effect the necessary transition as smoothly as possible.

84 Remarks by Chairman Alan Greenspan on Energy Before the Economic Club of New York, New York, New York May 20, 2005 We will begin the transition to the next major sources of energy perhaps before midcentury as production from conventional oil reservoirs, according to central tendency scenarios of the Energy Information Administration, is projected to peak. In fact, the development and application of new sources of energy, especially nonconventional oil, is already in train. Nonetheless, the transition will take time. We, and the rest of the world, doubtless will have to live with the geopolitical and other uncertainties of the oil markets for some time to come.

85 God to Noah: Build the Ark now as it is hard to do it under the water.

86

87 Reality from the speech of the silent elephants

88 The future of the world is in the hands of the Giant Fields Giant fields compared to other fields with respect to: Number of fields URR, Ultimate Recoverable Reserves Daily Production Giant Oil Fields ~1 % Other Oil Fields ~99 % URR of the Giant Oil Fields >50% URR from other oil fields < 50% Production from the 100 largest giants <50% Other Oil Field Production >50% Källa: AAPG, OGJ, Simmons & Company International

89 Top 18 Giant Fields Field Name Country Discovery year Range of URR [GB] Ghawar Saudi Arabia Burgan Greater Kuwait Safaniya Saudi Arabia Bolivar Coastal Venezuela Berri Saudi Arabia Rumalia N&S Iraq Zakum Abu Dhabi Cantarell Complex Mexico Manifa Saudi Arabia Kirkuk Iraq Gashsaran Iran Abqaiq Saudi Arabia Ahwaz Iran Marun Iran Samotlor Russia Agha Jari Iran Zuluf Saudi Arabia Prudhoe Bay Alaska Source: AAPG, OGJ, EIA

90 Discovery Trends of Giant Fields Discovered Recoverable Reserves in Giant Fields [Gb] Number of Giant Oil Fields Discovered 200 Gb & Number Source: AAPG, UHDSG

91 Cumulative findings of oil in the world according to BP statistical revue Acumulerade fyndigheter, Gb Comment: Oil & Gas Journal is collecting the data, but the fact that BP is reproducing the numbers without any questions makes them responsible for spreading the information around the world.

92 Discovery per year according to BP Fyndighet/år, Gb

93 OPEC:s numbers according to Oil & Gas journal. Production in the OPEC countries in the table is 6 Gb/year 15 years production is 90 Gb Abu Dubai Iran Iraq Kuwait Neutral Saudi Venezuela Dhabi Zone Arabia

94 Reality and Illusion Cumulative Discovery, Gb Inflexion from falling Discovery New numbers from OPEC Backdated revisions Illusion Reality

95 Greater Burgan Kuwait (+1/2 NZ) oil+condensate cumulative discovery & cumulative production discovery production remaining reserves Jean Laherrere 2002 year

96 100 Kuwait oil reserves from political and technical sources technical data OPEC OGJ = BP 70 WO Jean Laherrere March 2003 year