Kelowna Market: How Much Vancouver, How Much Calgary?

Transcription

1 Kelowna Market: How Much Vancouver, How Much Calgary? Prepared for Okanagn UDI April 2017 Prof. Tsur Somerville, PhD

2 Basis of Presentation Slide 2

3 Vancouver is Closer: Done Slide 3

4 Mayors Slide 4

5 Premiers Slide 5

6 Car Culture Slide 6

7 Annual Employment Growth: % 2.50% 2.00% 1.50% 1.00% 0.50% 0.00% Source: Stats Canada Calgary Vancouver Kelowna Rest of BC Alberta Slide 7

8 4.50% Annual Employment Growth: % 3.50% 3.00% 2.50% 2.00% 1.50% 1.00% 0.50% 0.00% Calgary Vancouver Kelowna Rest of BC Alberta Source: Stats Canada Slide 8

9 3.00% Annual Employment Growth: % 2.00% 1.50% 1.00% 0.50% 0.00% -0.50% Calgary Vancouver Kelowna Rest of BC Alberta Source: Stats Canada Slide 9

10 2.50% Annual Employment Growth: % 1.50% 1.00% 0.50% 0.00% Calgary Vancouver Kelowna Rest of BC Alberta -0.50% Source: Stats Canada Slide 10

11 Employment Growth Correlations Kelowna Vancouver Calgary Rest of BC Alberta Kelowna 1.00 Vancouver Calgary Rest of BC Alberta Source: Stats Canada Slide 11

12 Employment Growth Correlations Kelowna Vancouver Calgary Rest of BC Alberta Kelowna 1.00 Vancouver Calgary Rest of BC Alberta Source: Stats Canada Slide 12

13 Employment Growth Correlations Kelowna Vancouver Calgary Rest of BC Alberta Kelowna 1.00 Vancouver Calgary Rest of BC Alberta Source: Stats Canada Slide 13

14 Employment Growth Correlations Kelowna Vancouver Calgary Rest of BC Alberta Kelowna 1.00 Vancouver Calgary Rest of BC Alberta Source: Stats Canada Slide 14

15 BC Immigration & Migration Source: Stats Canada Immigrants Net InterProv Migration Slide 15

16 Net Migration BC - AB Source: BC Stats Net Migration to BC Net BC-AB Migration Slide 16

17 Within BC Migration 6,000 4,000 2, (2,000) (4,000) (6,000) (8,000) Source: BC Stats Cent. Okanagan Domestic Net Greater Vancouver Domestic Net Slide 17

18 Inter Provincial Migration 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, (2,000) (4,000) Source: BC Stats Cent. Okanagan InterProv Net Greater Vancouver InterProv Net Slide 18

19 International Migration Net 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, (10,000) BC Int'l Migration Net Cent. Okanagan Int'l Net Greater Vancouver Int'l Net Source: BC Stats Slide 19

20 Prices Sources: BCREA, Royal LePage, Brookfield Kelowna_pri Calgary_pri Vancouver_pri Victoria_pri Slide 20

21 Prices Kelowna_pri Calgary_pri Vancouver_pri Victoria_pri Sources: BCREA, Royal LePage, Brookfield Slide 21

22 Prices Kelowna_pri Calgary_pri Vancouver_pri Victoria_pri Sources: BCREA, Royal LePage, Brookfield Slide 22

23 Prices Kelowna_pri Calgary_pri Vancouver_pri Victoria_pri Sources: BCREA, Royal LePage, Brookfield Slide 23

24 Annual Price Change Correlations Kelowna Calgary Vancouver Victoria Kelowna 1.00 Calgary Vancouver Victoria Sources: BCREA, Royal LePage, Brookfield Slide 24

25 Annual Price Change Correlations Kelowna Calgary Vancouver Victoria Kelowna 1.00 Calgary Vancouver Victoria Sources: BCREA, Royal LePage, Brookfield Slide 25

26 Annual Price Change Correlations Kelowna Calgary Vancouver Victoria Kelowna 1.00 Calgary Vancouver Victoria Sources: BCREA, Royal LePage, Brookfield Slide 26

27 Annual Price Change Correlations Kelowna Calgary Vancouver Victoria Kelowna 1.00 Calgary Vancouver Victoria Sources: BCREA, Royal LePage, Brookfield Slide 27

28 Annual Price Change Correlations Kelowna Calgary Vancouver Victoria Kelowna 1.00 Calgary Vancouver Victoria Slide 28

29 What I Learned Less Calgary than you thought Way more Vancouver than you want remains really unusual Victoria = Retirement Patterns The most consistent result More regular than economic fluctuations Slide 29