University of Tartu, The oldest and largest in Estonia Founded in 1632 by King Gustavus Adolphus of Sweden students
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1 University of Tartu, The oldest and largest in Estonia Founded in 163 by King Gustavus Adolphus of Sweden 18 students Faculty of Science and Technology Includes Estonian Marine Institute 1
2 Estonian Marine Institute, University of Tartu (locates in Tallinn) Dep. of marine systems about 1 employees head: Dr. Robert Aps a number of applied and EU projects Scientific research theme (8-13) head Dr. Ülo Suursaar The main task: Climate change induced decadal variations in hydrodynamic conditions and their influence on benthic habitats and coasts of the Estonian coastal sea
3 Tallinn Tartu 3
4 Material and methods: Physical geography & oceanography Sea level and wind forcing data (by EMHI) Hydrodynamic measurements with RDCP at Neugrund and Sundgrund, etc. 6-1: waves, currents, sea level, T, S, O, turbidity Hydrodynamic modelling of currents and sea level Wave hindcast (reconstruction) based on measured ( ) EMHI wind data; Coastal geomorphic studies in co-operation with Tallinn Univ. o in situ surveys, GPS measurements in 4-11 o Dynamics of shorelines based on maps and ortophotos from 19, 1935, 1939, 1947, 1961, 1981, 1998, 5, 8, 1 o Analysis of erosion/ sedimentation volumes using MapInfo
5 Material and methods: wind and sea level Wind and sea level data both for forcing and statistics Ristna Vilsandi Tallinn Narva Kunda Pärnu
6 Material and methods: deployment of hydrodynamic measuring equipment 3 MHz ADP (Sontek) 6 KHz RDCP (AADI Aanderaa)
7 Material and methods: hydrodynamics Study of hydrodynamics using RDCP-6 (by AADI Aanderaa) Wave parameters (also for wave model calibration), currents, T, S, sea level, turbidity: ~9 days
8 Sea level (cm) Sea level (cm) Material and methods: sea level, currents Shallow sea D hydrodynamic model (Suursaar & Kullas, 6); 1 km grid step; forced by Vilsandi wind data and open boundary (Ristna tide gauge) sea level - Verifications (below) - control run (realistic data) - scenario runs with modified forcings 18 1 (a) Rohuküla mod+6: AV=.8, SD=4; meas: AV=1.8, SD= (cm) r= (b) Pärnu mod+6: AV=.1, SD=8; meas: AV=3., SD=6 (cm) r=
9 current velocity [cm s -1 ] current velocity [cm s -1 ] a Hydrodynamic modelling Validation of the D model results regarding currents, measured using RDCP at Matsil in June- July 11 u (W-E directed) and v (S-N) component v 4 u model measurement u - b v time [days, from ] model measurement time [days, from ] 5 cm/sec
10 Material and methods: wave hindast Wave hindcast using the SMB (Sverdrup-Munk-Bretschneider) type model (Seymour 1977; USACE ) Calculates significant wave (Hs) parameters for the specific fetch-depth-limited location Forced by wind speed, also depends on depth and fetch (calculated from wind direction as headwind distance to the shore) Fetch is the length of water over which a given wind has blown, each point has its own specific angular distribution of fetches: H s T s L U.83 g gh tanh.53 U U gh.4 tanh.833 g U s gt S h tanh LS gf.15 U tanh gh tanh.53 U gf.77 U tanh gh tanh.833 U ,
![wave height [m] wave height [m] Fetches in different locations 15 1](/docs-images/93/111950076/images/11-0.jpg "1 8 - x 1 6 5 15")
11 wave height [m] wave height [m] Fetches in different locations x x 1-1 a Hs sõltuvus fetsist (a), sügavusest (b) wind speed [m s -1 ] 56 km 18 km 64 km 3 km 16 km 8 km 4 km km 1 km b wind speed [m s -1 ] 1 m 5 m m 1 m 5 m m
12 Wind speed (m s -1 ) Signif. wave height (m). Measured waves (and winds) near Harilaid RDCP, in 6/7 3 d Hs = 3. m, max 4.6 m, 5-6 m d Time (days, from.1.6) W storm ; 3 m/s, gusts 33 m/s Dets. Jaan. Time Veeb. (days, from Märts.1.6) Aprill Mai
13 wave height [m] wave height [m] Material and methods: wave hindast Calibration of the SMB wave model against RDCP measurements at the two locations very good results Calibrated model used in hindcast (w. 3 h step), so if we have extended our RDCP measurements back to model measurement Vilsandi- Harilaid calibration: 5 months in 6/7 (r=.88, RMSE=.3 m) 3 1 a time [days, from.1.6] measurement: av=.5, max=.91 model: av=.5, max=.86 r =.93 RMSE =.3 m st.rmse = 7.8% Letipea ps.-kunda: calibration 4 d in 6 Verification 3 d in 8 (r=.9, RMSE=. m) time [days, from ]
14 Hs, m Hs, m Hs, m Hs, m Hs, m Hs, m Wave hindcasts (with 1h/ 3h interval) - Average (Hs) probably decreased - High events (max, 99%) probably increased on westerly exposed coasts decreased on N and E exposed coasts.8 A.7 1 Harilaid B Harilaid (99). 1.6 C Matsi-Kihnu D Matsi-Kihnu (99) E.6 Letipea F Letipea (99)
15 Sea level, cm Tallinn Sea level variations A Tallinn (1.8/.1) Longest series in Estonia, Trend,1 mm/a Post-glacial Fennoscandian uplift up to 8 mm/a, in Estonia,5-,5 mm/a, in Tallinn ~1,8 mm/a, Thus, sea level rise,1+1,8 = 1,9 mm/a
16 Sea level (cm). Sea level, cm Sea level, other locations Local sea level trends depend on local uplift rate 6 4 B Narva-Jõesuu (.5+1.4) Pärnu (1.5+.7) Corrected with uplift: 1-1 (b) - Narva - Pärnu - Tallinn - Ristna Virtsu (1.8+.1) Heltermaa (.4+.) Rohuküla (.4+.1) Ristna (.6-1.1) Time (year) Paldiski* (.6/-.5)
17 Sea level (cm) Sea level, cm Sea level (cm) Sea level rises in winter (climate change manifest in 6 winter conditions: Pärnu sea level 194-8: + 5 cm I, II, III (winter) temp., storminess) 3-3 D 3 Pärnu , range 4 cm y =.9x Pärnu sea level 194-8: VII, VIII, IX (summer) + cm J F M A M J J A S O N D -3 Month y =.x
18 Sea level, cm Sea level (cm) Annual sea level maxima (cm). Maxima Trends in maxima are increasing fast (4-6 mm/yr) Return periods and values Pärnu a=1.5 b=7. Narva a=18. b=3.5 Ristna 195- a=85.9 b=.3 Tallinn a=76.3 b= Return period (yr) 5 15 Pärnu (trend slope. mm/y, land uplift 1.5 mm/yr) e Ruhnu*1.1 wind; Max Ventspils 75 level cm on 9 January Observed 5 Modelled (E) Days (January 5)
19 Pärnu, Gudrun in Jan. 5 up to 73 cm storm surge
20 Temperature ( o C) Salinity Velocity (cm/s) W-E wind comp. (m/s) Upvelling along the straight sections of coast, when wind blows persistently along the coast Summer 6 case, Gulf of Finland normaalne - o C a) b) idatuul Time (days from 1.8.6) stratifitseeritud hoovus Eesti rannikul 4-1 o C a) m layer 7-9 m layer Time (days from 1.8.6) madal T, kõrge S 7.8 RDCP 14 1 Salinity Temperature Time (days from 1.8.6)
21 Coastal studies (with ÖI, Tallinn University) Coastal studies with GPS at Harilaid, Osmussaar (4-1) Old maps, photos, GIS 1
22 Painted sediment experiment Osmussaar Sept. 11
23 Influence on coasts Harilaiu Ps. Kiipsaare and Kelba Capes Kiipsaare RDCP Kelba
24 Sea level, m 3 a) 7 Nov. O 6 Dec. O Kelba spit during storm Berit (7-9. Nov. 11) 1-1 Sea level (smooth) Sea level + model wave height Days f rom km
25 Osmussaar and Neugrund - 54 mill.year old meteorite crater 7-8 km diameter, current height 5 m buried over different periods of time, re-exposed Osmussaar RDCP Neugrund RDCP Sundgrund 5
26 Natural history - after the last ice age Osmussaar emerged from the Baltic Sea about 3 years ago Ancylus Lake 8 years ago Littorina Sea 5-7 years ago The present rate of the postglacial rebound ~.7 mm/year 6
27 Sea level (cm) Sea level (cm) Sea level (cm) Tide gauge data : annual means annual max a Paldiski (.6) 1 d Paldiski Local mean sea levels still slightly decrease because the uplift mm/yr is a bit faster than the global sea level rise (1.9 mm/yr in , but probably 3 mm/yr in last 1 years) Rohuküla (.4) b Rohuküla e However, trends in annual max sea levels significantly increase: more storms and coastal erosion Ristna (.6) c Ristna f
28 Exposed W and N coasts: coastal erosion Cliff recedes ~9 cm/year The lighthouse several times rebuilt (1765, 185, 1954) fetches for waves are longer SW-W-NW: direction for prevailing winds and storms 1954, 35m high 8
29 The eroded sediment (gravel, pebble) moves alongshore, southward, especially during storms Beach ridges (up to -3m high) and spits are formed; new land Osmussaar as a whole slowly migrates to SE 9
30 Coastal developments at the two southern study sites Coastline on the SW and S parts is migrating seaward by formation of accumulative beach ridges and spits of gravel, pebble and sand. The accumulative spit (in OS) has grown about 8 m since 19; a previous bay (Inahamne) became a lake in ~1935
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