MINISTRY OF TRANSPORTATION AND HIGHWAYS

Transcription

1 Report to MNSTRY OF TRANSPORTATON AND HGHWAYS i On GEORGE MASSEY TUNNEL EXPANSON PLANNNG STUDY

2 TTaffic mpact Parking Tansportation Planning Taffic Operations ransit rucking 4 Modelling March 26, 1991 Ministry of Transportation and Highways South Coast Regional District 7818 Sixth Street Burnaby, B.C. V3N 4N8; Attention:: Ms. Maria Swan, P.Eng. Senior Transportation Planning Engineer Dear Sir: RE: Expansion of George Massey Tunnel - Preliminary Planning Studv n accordance with your instructions, we have now carried out the preliminary planning study of the future expansion of the George Massey Tunnel on Highway 99. The attached report presents an overview of the study together with the resultant conclusions and recommendations. Thank you for the opportunity to work on this project on behalf of the Ministry. trust that this report enables your staff to continue with the next steps necessary to bring these recommendations to fruition. 145gmasy\gmt.rpt West Pender Street, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada V6E 2S1 Tel: (64) Fax:

3 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. NTRODUCTON... 1 Page 1.1 Background to Study Scope of Study History and Role of the George Massey Tunnel EXSTNG TRANSPORTATON SYSTEM Regional Road Network Current Traffic Volumes on Fraser River Crossings Historic Growth in Traffic Volumes Growth in Capacity Across the South Arm Physical Constraints on Highway Projected Growth in Ferry Traffic Role of Transit GROWTH N TRAVEL DEMAND Projected Population Trends Employment Growth Trends Projected Travel Demand Deficiencies with Modelling Process Comparison of Traffic Volume Growth Rates...': ALTERNATVE ADDTONAL CROSSNGS Developing Alternative Crossing Alternative A: Do Nothing Alternative B: Third Tube in the Tunnel Alternative C: Third and Fourth Tubes in the Tunnel Alternative D: No. 5 Road Bridge Alternative E: 72nd Street. No. 8 Road Freeway ANALYSS OF ALTERNATVE CROSSNGS Use of EMME/2 to Establish Future Volumes Projected Traffic Volumes on Alternative Networks mpact on Alex Fraser Bridge Travel Patterns of Tunnel Users mpact of Ferry Traffic Analysis of Network Statistics for Alternatives Cost of Construction Cost-Benefit Evaluation of Alternative Crossings Possible Modifications to Alternatives Analyzed mpact of Blundell nterchange on Steveston nterchange _

4 5.11 Phasing of the 72nd StreetNo. 8 Road Freeway RECOMMENDED PROGRAM FOR UPGRADNG THE SOUTH ARM Selecting the Preferred Long Term Alternative Selecting Short Term mprovements Developing a Phasing Plan Timing for mplementation Highway 99 nterchanges with Third Tube Highway 99 Lane Configuration with Third Tube Proposed Highway 17. Highway 99 Connector Proposed Functional Plan CONCLUSONS AND RECOMMENDATONS APPENDX Vehicle Assignments to the Alternative Networks APPENDX Projected nterchange Ramp Volumes for Third Tube Alternative EXHBTS George Massey Tunnel in a Regional Context... 4 Greater Vancouver's River Crossings... 6 Regional Road Network... 7 River Crossing Volumes in the Morning Peak Hours... 9 Variation in Hourly Volumes At River Crossings... 1 Historic Traffic Volumes in the George Massey Tunnel and Alex Fraser Bridge Historic Traffic Volumes in the Pattullo and Port Mann Bridges Historic Traffic Volumes on the Oak Street and Knight Street Bridges Growth in Traffic Volumes on the North and South Arms Comparison of Actud Volumes vs Capacity Across the South Arm Population ncrease and Distribution in Greater Vancouver Employment ncrease and Distribution in Greater Vancouver Comparison of Historic and EMME/% Projected Traffic Volumes by River Arm Comprsn. of Historic and EMME/2 Volumes for George Massey & Alex Fraser... Greater Vancouver's Recommended 21 Road Network... Alternative B. Third Tube in Tunnel... Alternative D. New No. 5 Road Bridge Alternative E. 72 Street/No. 8 Road Freeway Projected Travel Patterns of Tunnel Users... Possible No. 5 Road Bridge Connection to Highway 99 Long Term Plan for ncreased Capacity Over South Arm

5 Short Term Plan for ncreased Capacity Over South Arm Projected Relationship of South Arm Capacity to Demand Proposed Conceptual Plan of Upgraded Highway 17 nterchange Proposed Conceptual Plan of Upgraded Steveston nterchange Piroposed Conceptual Plan of New Blundell Road nterchange... 7 Proposed Conceptual Plan of Reversible Lanes in Tunnel Proposed Conceptual Plan of Highway 99 Blundell to Richmond Freeway Proposed Conceptual Plan of New Highway 17-Highway 99 Connector Proposed Conceptual Plan of Highway 17 nterchange with New Connector in Place.. 77 F. unctional Plan of Upgraded Highway 99. Steveston nterchange to Tunnel F. unctional Plan of Upgraded Highway 99 - Tunnel to Ladner nterchange... 8 TABLES Fraser River Crossings Peak Hour Traffic Volumes on Fraser River Crossings... Historic Peak Hour Crossing Volumes of the Fraser River... Annual Growth Rates in Fraser River Crossing Volumes... Annual Growth Resulting from Opening of Alex Fraser Bridge... Capacity of South Arm Crossings... Population Projections by Municipality... Employment Projections by Municipality... Projected 21 Travel Demand Across South Arm. Morning Peak Hour.... Projected 21 Tunnel Demand Across South Arm. Afternoon Peak Hour... EMME\2 Projected 21 Crossing Volumes on Do Nothing Network... Projected 21 Volumes For Crossing Alternatives... mpact of Alternatives on Alex Fraser Bridge Volumes... Summary of 21 EMME/2 Network Statistics... Unit Construction Cost... Construction Cost Estimates for Crossing Alternatives... Cost Effectiveness of Crossing Alternatives... Comparison of Low-Speed and High Speed No. 5 Road Bridge Alternatives... Evaluation of Phasing Options of 72 Street/No. 8 Road Freeway Alternative... Comparison Summary of Alternative Crossings... Future Capacity of South Arm Crossing

6 1.O NTRODUCTON Background to Study Greater Vancouver is divided by a number of bodies of water, one of which is the Fraser River. When this river reaches Queensborough in New Westminster, it divides into two segments, these being the North and South Arms with the main flow being along the latter. For the purpose of this study the South Arm will be taken to include the main flow east of Queensborough. The George Massey Tunnel which passes beneath the South Arm is one of only four crossings of the main flow of the river with the others being the Alex Fraser Bridge (also across the South Arm), and the Pattullo and Port Mann Bridges. These river crossings link the municipalities of Delta, Surrey, White Rock, and Langley in the south to the remainder of Greater Vancouver. These municipalities on the south side are primarily residential whereas the region s large employment areas are located on the north side of the river. The George Massey Tunnel is therefore a very strategic component of Greater Vancouver s regional road network. Not only is this crossing a vital link between the two segments of the region but any capacity restraint on this crossing quickly affects the other crossings as well. Over the past 1 years, the capacity across the South Arm has been increased a number of times. This has been through the introduction of the northbound contra flow lane in the tunnel during the morning peak period in 1981, the opening of the four lane Alex Fraser Bridge in 1986, the widening of this bridge to three lanes southbound as well as the introduction of the southbound contra flow lane in the tunnel during the afternoon peak period in 1989, and the extension of the Vancouver to New Westminster SkyTrain to Surrey in 199. Although these improvements have provided some relief to the tunnel as well as to the other river crossings, the tunnel is once again near its practical capacity in both the morning and afternoon peak periods due to the constant increase in vehicular travel, particularly as a result of the continued development of residential areas south of the Fraser River and employment opportunities north of the river. Furthermore, accidents or breakdowns often occur in the tunnel and these cause extensive delays to traffic travelling to or from work or on business during the peak periods - sometimes it requires up to 2 or 3 hours to clear the cause and get the traffic back to normal. This situation, which occurs at least once per week, has a very negative impact on tunnel users, no matter whether they are travelling by automobile, bus or truck. The provision of the additional capacity across the Fraser River over the past few years has in itself resulted in an increase in the attractiveness of the residential developments in areas south of the river. This in turn has resulted in an accelerated growth in travel demand across the river as these residents travel to and from their places of work in the employment centres in Vancouver, Richmond and Burnaby. This growth is likely to continue into the future. Another factor influencing the growth in travel across the river is the fact that B.C. Ferries is currently in the planning stage of an expansion program that will see the capacity of their Tsawwassen Ferry Terminal almost doubled and larger ships in service. As demand in travel across the Fraser River continues to increase year after year, the Ministry of Transportation and Highways recognised that there is a need to undertake a study to determine where, when, and how the existing capacity across the South Arm should be expanded. Once these issues have

7 2 been addressed, then the real planning for the implementation of the recommended improvements can be commenced. Hence the initiation of this study. 1.2 Scope of Study Ward Consulting Group was engaged by the Ministry to carry out a preliminary planning study to consider the need for, and the form of, any future expansion of the existing George Massey Tunnel. n undertaking this review, it was requested that the overall travel demand across the South Arm of the Fraser River during the next ten years be analyzed and that the feasibility of other alternative crossings separate from the tunnel also be examined. As a result of this analysis a planned program of improvements to the regional road network is to be determined so that the projected travel demand across the river through to the year 21 can be accommodated in the most effective and efficient manner. n developing the analysis, the Ministry asked the Ward Consulting Group to employ the EMME2 model in the same general manner as it was used in the 1989 "Freedom to Move" study. The approach allowed a direct comparison between alternatives since all newly constructed road capacity was assigned to general purpose traffic. The Ministry is considering the possible peak hour designation of some new road capacity for bus or combined bus and carpool traffic. n order to estimate the attractiveness of such laning and the influence on vehicle demand it would be necessary to have confident information concerning some other transportation decisions. These would include the timing, routing and technology for the Richmond to Vancouver Transit system, allocation of bus or combined bus and carpool lanes across the North Arm, the long term service policy for passenger only ferries, how the Whalley Transit extension will be integrated with the South Surrey & White Rock bus service and the general policy for Park and Ride or Park and Pool lots. With this many uncertainties it was decided that the effectiveness of special vehicle lane designations could not be determined within the scope of the study. n developing the analysis, the Ministry asked the Ward Consulting Group to employ the EMME2 model in the same general manner as it was used in the 1989 "Freedom to Move" study. The approach allowed a direct comparison between alternatives since all newly constructed road capacity was assigned to general purpose traffic. The Ministry is considering the possible peak hour designation of some new road capacity for bus or combined bus and carpool traffic. n order to estimate the attractiveness of such laning and the influence on vehicles demand it would be necessary to have confident information concerning some other transportation decisions. These would include the timing, routing and technology for the Richmond to Vancouver Transit system, allocation of bus or combined bus and carpool lanes across the North Arm, the long term service policy for passenger only ferries, how the Whalley Transit extension will be integrated with the South Surrey & White Rock bus service and the general policy for Park and Ride or Park and Pool lots. With this many uncertainties it was decided that the effectiveness of special vehicle lane designations could not be determined within the scope of the study. This report addresses the analyses carried out in this study and presents the resultant findings, conclusions, and recommendations. 1.3 History and Role of the George Massey Tunnel The four-lane 2,1 foot George Massey Tunnel was constructed under the South Arm of the Fraser River at Deas sland in the early 196's by the Ministry of Transportation and Highways as part of what

8 3 was then known as Deas Tunnel Through-Way. This four-lane, 25-mile divided freeway, including the George Massey Tunnel itself (then called the Deas Tunnel), extending from the Oak Street Bridge which crosses the North Arm, to the United States border to the south was officially opened in The new tunnel provided the only direct vehicular access between the adjacent municipalities of Richmond and Delta, replacing the ferry service that had been in operation for a number of years. The only other river crossing available at that time was the Pattullo Bridge, 16.5 kilometres to the east, on the then Highway 1 linking Surrey to New Westminster. Highway 99 is now one of two provincial highways that feed traffic into the south end of the tunnel, the other being Highway 17, which primarily serves the Delta communities of Tsawwassen and Ladner and the B.C. Ferries' Tsawwassen Ferry Terminal. Ferry services run from this point to Swartz Bay (Victoria), the Gulf slands, and, commencing in 199, to Nanaimo. The two highways join together approximately 1.5 km south of the tunnel. On the south side of the river, the Steveston Highway joins Highway 99 a short distance north of the tunnel. Further to the north, Westminster Highway and the Richmond Freeway both join into Highway 99. The location of the tunnel in the context of the regional road network is illustrated in Exhibit 1.1. t is apparent that the George Massey tunnel plays an important role in the regional road network of Greater Vancouver, particularly for the population living in the southern segments of Delta, Surrey and Langley. t is also a key facility for trucks moving goods into and out of Vancouver and its international port. The 1989 "Freedom to Move" study undertaken by the Greater Vancouver Transportation Task Force looked at the road and transit networks of Greater Vancouver. A number of the resultant recommendations on improvements required through to the year 21 related to the George Massey Tunnel and Highway 99. These were: provide a third tube in the tunnel; construct the new Blundell Road nterchange on Highway 99; and provide a new freeway around the east side of Ladner connecting Highway 17 at Tsawwassen to Highway 99.

9 EXHBT 1 1 GEORGE MASSEY TUNNEL t / N A REGONAL CONTEXT

10 2. EXSTNG TRANSPORTATON SYSTEM Regional Road Network As already noted, the George Massey Tunnel is one of four crossings of the main flow of the Fraser River. The others are the Alex Fraser Bridge located 4.5 kms. to the east, the Pattullo Bridge, a further 3.5 kms. to the east, and the Port Mann Bridge, another 5. kms. east. Each of these river crossings are an integral component of a major regional highway, linking various segments of Greater Vancouver together. These crossings and their key features are presented in summary form in Table 2.1 and the location of each of these river crossings as well as others across the North Arm are shown in Exhibit 2.1. Note that although the Alex Fraser Bridge is three lanes in each direction, Highway 91 at the north end of the bridge is currently only two lanes northbound. At the present time, the only South Arm crossings that are connected to each other via a high capacity link, ie., an expressway or freeway, are the George Massey Tunnel and the Alex Fraser Bridge. These are connected via the Richmond Expressway (Highway 91) which runs along the north side of the South Arm and Highway 99. These two highways also join each other to the south of the river. The only other provincial highways of any significance in this study are Highway 17 which links the Tsawwassen Ferry Terminal to Highway 99 immediately south of the tunnel, and Highway 91A which links the Alex Fraser Bridge to the Queensborough Bridge which crosses the North Arm into New Westminster. Each of these highways are shown in Exhibit 2.2. Table 2.1 Fraser River Crossings No. of River Crossing Lanes Highway MuniciDalitv From George Massey Tunnel 4 Highway 99 Delta South Surrey White Rock U.S.A. Alex Fraser Bridge 6 Highway 91 Surrey North Delta Municipalitv TQ Richmond Vancouver New Westminster Richmond Burnaby Vancouver Pattullo Bridge Port Mann Bridge 4 Highway 1A Surrey North Delta 4 Highway 1 Surrey Langley Fraser Valley New Westminster Burnab y Coquitlam Burnab y Port Coquitlam New Westminster Vancouver North Shore

11 EXHBT 2. 1 GREATER VANCOUVER'S RVER CROSSNGS

12 FREEWAY EXPRESSWAY m = OTHER PROVNCAL r l l l l l

13 8 Other major municipal roads of significance in this particular George Massey Tunnel Expansion Study are: River Road linking Highway 17 at the Ladner nterchange on Highway 99 to the Tilbury Business Park and on to Scott Road with a connection to Highway 91 via Nordel Way; No. 3 Road, No. 4 Road, No. 5 Road and No. 8 Road - north south arterials extending across Richmond between the Middle and South Arms of the Fraser River; Steveston Road which provides a link between the south end of Richmond s north-south arterials and Highway 99 via the Steveston nterchange which is located immediately north of the tunnel; Ladner Trunk Road which connects the residential area of Ladner to Highway 17 and then becomes Highway 1 to the east of this point; and Blundell Road, another east-west arterial in Richmond which does not at present have a connection to Highway 99. The location of these roads are also shown in Exhibit Current Traffic Volumes on Fraser River Crossings Current traffic volume data for each of the river crossings was obtained from the Ministry s Planning Services Branch. The 1989 morning and afternoon peak hour volumes at each of the crossings are presented in Table 2.2. The relative magnitude of the volume of vehicles at each crossing in the morning peak hour is illustrated in Exhibit 2.3. The variation in volumes in the George Massey Tunnel and the Alex Fraser Bridge during a typical day are illustrated in Exhibit 2.4. Note that these graphs are based on data for September The reverse lane in the tunnel in the afternoon peak hour was introduced in October 1989 and therefore Exhibit 2.4 reflects three northbound lanes in the morning peak period but only two southbound lanes in the afternoon peak period. t is apparent from this exhibit that whilst both crossings exhibit the same overall pattern with high northbound peaks in the morning and high southbound peaks in the afternoon, in the George Massey Tunnel the afternoon peak hour is significantly lower than the morning peak hour, whereas on the Alex Fraser Bridge these peaks are approximately equal. This difference is no doubt due to the fact that free flow conditions exist the junction of Highway 91 and Highway 91A for southbound traffic travelling south on Highway 99 to east on the Richmond Freeway and south over the Alex Fraser Bridge in the afternoon peak hour whereas the reverse movement in the morning peak hour faces significant delays as a result of the left turn movement at this signalized intersection. From this data, the following should be noted: The highest peak hour volumes are in the George Massey Tunnel with 5,85 northbound in the morning and Alex Fraser Bridge with 5,51 southbound in the afternoon - both of these facilities have three lanes in the same direction as these peak flows; Peak flows on the Oak Street, Knight Street, Pattullo and Port Mann Bridges are all in

14 RVER CROSSNG VOLUMES N THE MORNNG PEAK HOURS 31STRCT oc CORTH ANCOaVER CANADA - U. S A BORDER -_--_

15 VARATON N HOURLY VOLUMES AT RVER CROSSNGS ALEX FRASER BRDGE - SEF'EMBER V E 7 H C S P eo 6 4 E 3 R H 2 9 T R S HOUR - NORTHBOUND -- SOUTHBOUND TOTAL TWO-WAY GEORGE MASSEY TUNNEL - SEPTEMBER V E H C L E S P E R H U R S s HOUR - NORTHBOUND -- SOUTHBOUND TOTAL TWO-WAY

16 11 the range 3,87 to 4,23 - all of these facilities have two lanes in each direction; For both arms of the river, the northbound direction is the peak direction in the morning peak hour and the southbound direction is the peak direction in the afternoon peak hour - this is not a new revelation. Table Peak Hour Traffii Volumes on Fraser River Crossings Noah Arm Morning Direction Ratio Afternoon Direction Ratio Northbnd Southbnd P&O ff-peak Northbnd Southbnd peak/off-peak Arthur Laing OakSt. Bridge Knight St. Bridge Queensborough Bridge Total Noah Arm South Arm George Massey Tunnel Alex Fraser Bridge Pattullo Bridge Port Mann Bridge Total South Arm The imbalance in directional volume is considerably more pronounced on the South Arm where in the morning, the peak direction is 14 % higher than the off-peak direction overall (18,71 vs. 7,77) whereas on the North Arm in the same time period it was only 3% higher (13,557 vs. 1,438) - this is because a significant number of residents living in Vancouver, Burnaby and the North Shore commute to work at places of employment in Richmond, whereas very few residents living north of the South Arm commute to work in Delta or Surrey. The directional imbalance is greatest on the Alex Fraser Bridge which has a very low flow in the off peak direction, especially in the morning peak hour - this is no doubt because of the lack of any significant number of job opportunities in North Delta. The George Massey Tunnel has the next highest directional imbalance - this is a result of the reversible counter-flow lane in the peak periods which provides three lanes in one direction and only one in the opposite. The 1989 southbound volume in the afternoon peak hour is slightly lower than the northbound volume in the morning peak hour confirming the often stated belief that commuters are now more inclined to spread out their times for travel when commuting home from work in the afternoon than they are to change their time of travel to work in the morning. Each of the individual crossings follow this same pattern with the exception

17 12 of the Queensborough Bridge which experiences the reverse to this pattern in both peak periods. Table 2.3 Historic Peak Hour Crossing Volumes of the Fraser River Actual Counts Actual Counts Actual Counts Year 1979 Year 1984 Year 1989 (a) Morning Peak Hour - NB - SB - NB - SB - NB - SB North Arm Arthur Laing 1,4 1,1 1,25 1,1 2,628 2,32 Oak St. Bridge 3,917 1,523 4,172 1,93 4,233 2,265 Knight St. Bridge 2,428 2,727 3,472 2,817 4,45 3,272 Queensborough Total North Arm 8,563 7,331 9,68 7,516 13,577 1,438 South Arm George Massey 4,167 1,524 5,93 1,492 5,851 1,747 Alex Fraser , Pattullo 3,871 1,883 4,98 1,631 3,87 1,789 Port Mann Total South Arm 11,82 5,578 13,643 5,549 18,78 7,769 (b) Afternoon Peak Hour North Arm Arthur Laing 1,5 1,3 85 1,55 2,49 2,216 Oak Street 2,674 3,428 2,644 3,753 2,668 3,939 Knight Street 3,47 2,892 3,48 3,313 3,82 3,746 Queensborough 1, Total North Arm 8,666 8,664 8,243 9,37 11,452 12,63 South Arm George Massey Alex Fraser 1,797-3,753 1,76-3,986 1,485 1,81 4,31 5,59 Pattullo 2,62 3,582 1,796 3,814 1,953 3,564 Port Mann 2, ,538 4, Total South Arm 6,471 11,31 6,94 12,7 8,77 17, Historic Growth in Traffic Volumes Traffic counts recorded at each of the crossings of the Fraser River between the years 1979 to 1989 were also obtained in order to establish the historic growth in traffic volumes across the two arms which will be treated as screen lines in the analysis carried out in this study. The results of analyzing this data are presented in Tables 2.3 and 2.4 and illustrated in Exhibits 2.5 through to 2.8. Note that all data used

18 EXHBT 6.8 PROPOSED CONCEPTUAL PLAN OF HGHWAY 99 BLUNDELL TO RCHMOND FREEWAY NOTE: ASSUMNG 6-LANE OAK ST. BRDGE

19 PROPOSED CONCEPTUAL PLAN OF NEW HGHWAY 17 TO HGHWAY 99 CONNECTOR N SHORT TERM UPGRADNG

20 EXHBT 6.1 PROPOSED CONCEPTUAL PLAN OF HGHWAY 17 NTERCHANGE WTH WTH TSAWWASSEN FREEWAY RD m a! REVERSBLE LANE

21 EXHBT 2.5 HSTORC TRAFFC VOLUMES N THE GEORGE MASSEY TUNNEL AND ALEX FRASER BRDGE MORNNG 7 V 6 E H 6 C L E 4 S E 3 R H 2 U R GEORGE MASS~..TVNNEC.SB ALEX FRASER BRDGE N,B, _/e- _/-.-. ALEX FRASER BRDGE SB,,, Year AFTERNOON 6 " 6 E H L E S P E R H R GEORGE MASSM TUNNEL SB... ^ _/...J r....., GEORGE MASSM TUNNEL NB.-, ---- ALEX FRASER BRDGE NE ALEX FRASER BRDGE S8,' YEAR

22 ~ - ~ -. HSTORC TRAFFC VOLUMES N THE PATTULLO AND PORT MANN BRDGES MORNNG 46 V E L E 4 H 36 3 s 26 - PORT MANN BRDGE (WB),-... /-.,, \ /. /.,..,,, _, '\..,/-.., \\,,. / _- *.>.,.\.,...,/' /. 'L,' '+/. *.. _* _ ' PAnULLO BRDGE (WE) PORT MANN BRDGE ( 6) p 2 E R 16 H 1 U R 6 PAnULLO BRDGE (EB) YEAR AFTERNOON 46 V E 4 H 36 PORT MANN BRDGE ( 61 3 L E s 26 p 2 E R 16 PORT MANN BRDGE (WE1 / ~ -. _ PAnULLO BRDGE (WE) - _- - H 1 U R 6 1, 1 t YEAR

23 EXHBT 2.7 HSTORC TRAFFC VOLUMES ON THE OAK ST. AND KNGHT ST. BRDGES MORNNG 46 V E 4 H 36 3 L E s 26 OAK p 2 E R 16 H 1 U R YEAR AFTERNOON 36 4 / 2 P E R 16 ; 1 U KNGHT ST. BRDGE (NB), A,, \, - OAK ST. BRDGE (NE) OAK ST. BRDGE (SB) _ / *- -_..--.e.- /..,/ :. O YEAR

24 GROWTH N TRAFFC VOLUMES ON THE NORTH AND SOUTH ARMS V R 3 E 26 H C 2 E S P E 16 R 1 H 6 T 2.%/yr.W%/vr MORNNG South Arm N Q Y' %/yr - - ~ North Arm N8 2.48%/yr. 6.79%/yr OSO%/yr _ Norrh Arm SB...,_._ ".. Y &lQ%/y( South Arm S YEAR V R 3 T E 26 H C 2 E S P E 16 R 1 H u 6.37Xlyr.32%/yr AFTERNOON South Arm Total South Arm SE, 7.86%/yr %/yr ?yr. North Arm SF %/yr ,,ooxlrr _- -6&)%/yr _-_ -- -.q%/yr. ' North Arm NE South Arm NE

25 17 is for a typical Wednesday in September on each of the seven years. Table 2.3 presents the actual traffic volumes recorded for the years 1979, 1984 and 1989 for the morning and afternoon peak periods in both directions on each crossing as well as across each arm in total. The data for each year is illustrated graphically in Exhibit 2.5 for the George Massey Tunnel and Alex Fraser Bridge, in Exhibit 2.6 for the Pattullo and Port Mann Bridges, and in Exhibit 2.7 for the Oak Street Bridges. The opening dates for the various river crossings, including any capacity improvements is discussed later in Section 2.4 and presented in Table 2.5. The key points arising from this table and accompanying exhibits are as follows: Northbound traffic volumes in the George Massey Tunnel clearly increased between 1983 and 1984 due to the introduction of the reversible lane and has remained constant since then. The total northbound volume of vehicles across the South Arm of the Fraser River during the morning peak hour has increased by 59% over the last 1 years from 11,8 in 1979 to 18,71 in During the afternoon peak hour, the equivalent southbound volume has increased by 55% from 11,3 in 1979 to 17,525 in Peak direction traffic volumes in the morning peak hour on the Oak Street Bridge, the Pattullo Bridge and the Port Mann Bridge have increased only marginally over the 1 year period going from 11,552 to 12,257 or 6% in total - this is no doubt due to the capacity restraint that has been present at each of these crossings. Traffic volumes in the non-peak direction have increased consistently on the Port Mann Bridge from 2,171 to 3,525 in the morning and 2,612 to 3,531 in the afternoon and this movement is now approaching capacity. The increase in volumes in the off-peak direction, Le. southbound in the morning peak hour and northbound in the afternoon peak hour, has been lower than that in the peak direction over this 1 year time frame at 39% and 36% respectively. This result in turn confirms the fact that it is the continual growth in population south of the Fraser River and an equivalent growth in employment opportunities north of the river that is driving the travel demand across this screenline. Table 2.4 presents the annual percentage growth rates over the same two five year periods, viz., and , for the two arms. The comparative volumes and growth rates for both arms are illustrated in Exhibits 2.8 and 2.9. These indicate that the highest overall growth rate has been in the northbound direction in the morning peak hour when both arms have had an average annual increase of 4.7% per annum over the ten year span. This is closely followed by the southbound flow in the afternoon peak hour across the South Arm with an average growth rate of 4.5% per annum. The lowest growth rate has been in the northbound flow in the afternoon peak hour across the South Arm with a value of 3.1 % per annum. Although these annual percentage rates appear both small and similar, it must be noted that when compounded over a number of years they are significant, e.g.

26 EXHBT 2.9 COMPARSON OF ACTUAL VOLUMES VERSUS CAPACTY ACROSS THE SOUTH ARM Ln w.j 175 W > LT W 3 z NORTHBOUND CAPACTY 1 75 ' ACTUAL NORTHBOUND TRAFFC VOLUMES ACROSS SOUTH ARM N MORNNG PEAK HOUR YEAR NTRODUCTON OF COUNTER-FLOW LANE N TUNNEL N MORNNQ PEAK PEROD OPENNGS OF FOUR-LANE ALEX FRASER BRDGE

27 19 Annual Growth Total Growth Over Rate 1 vears 2 vears 2% 3% 4% 5% 22 % 49 % 34 % 81% 48 % 119% 63 % 165% t will be noted in Exhibit 2.5 that the northbound traffic volume in the George Massey Tunnel in the morning increased at an average rate of 7.3% per annum between 1979 and 1984 and then showed no growth from 1984 to This increase was no doubt a result of the introduction of the counter-flow lane for northbound morning peak period traffic through the tunnel in n the afternoon, the peak direction volume (southbound) showed only a small growth of 1.2 % and 1.5 % per annum from 1979 to 1984 and 1984 to 1989 respectively. The opening of the counter-flow lane for southbound afternoon peak period traffic toward the end of 1989 has now provided the additional capacity for this flow and no doubt 199 data will show a healthy increase in this volume. Table 2.4 Annual Growth Rates n Fraser River Crossing Volumes North Arm a.m. Peak Hour Northbound Southbound Total Two-way p.m. Peak Hour Northbound Southbound Total Two-way -1.oo South Arm a.m. Peak Hour p.m. Peak Hour Northbound 2.94 Southbound 4.1 Total Two-way 2. Northbound Southbound 1.22 Total Two-way n 1979, the northbound morning peak hour volumes and the southbound afternoon peak hour volumes through the tunnel were approximately equal at 416 and 375 vehicles per hour respectively. Between 1984 and 1989 however, the northbound morning peak hour volume has been significantly higher than the southbound afternoon peak hour volume due, as already noted, to the 5% greater capacity in the peak direction in the morning peak period. Although there is now the same capacity in both peak

28 2 directions in the two peak periods, there is still an imbalance in these volumes in that the northbound morning peak hour volumes are higher than the southbound afternoon peak hour volume. This is no doubt as a result of the Alex Fraser Bridge being a more attractive route for traffic travelling between Vancouver/Richmond and Surrey in the afternoon peak period than the reverse trip is along the same route in the morning peak period due to three factors: the higher capacity in the southbound direction on the Alex Fraser Bridge with 3 lanes throughout vs. only 2 lanes northbound between the Cliveden nterchange and the Highway 91/91A intersection; the delays at the signalized intersection at the junction of Highways 91 and 91A for northbound to westbound movements - this delay is non-existent for eastbound to southbound movements; and the negative impact of the two interchanges in close proximity to both ends of the George Massey Tunnel resulting in congestion directly attributable to problems associated with merging and diverging. t must be noted that the volumes passing through the tunnel and across the bridges as presented in Table 2.3 are not a true measure of demand since once the capacity of the facility is reached, the facility itself acts as a restriction to control the amount of traffic passing through. Although the addition of the third northbound lane through the tunnel in the morning peak hour did increase the capacity, there is still congestion and delays at the south end of both the tunnel and the Alex Fraser Bridge during this time period. These vehicles that arrive during the measured peak hour and do not get across the river are also part of the total demand but are not included in any counts of actual volumes. This also applies to the volume of traffic flowing in the opposite direction to the peak hour particularly in the afternoon peak period. At this time, the tunnel is restricted to one lane northbound. The count data indicates a flow of approximately 1,8 to 1,9 vehicles in the peak hour. On a typical week day there is an extensive queue of northbound vehicles waiting to enter the tunnel especially on Highway 17, which serves the community of Tsawwassen and the B.C. Ferry Terminal. Those arriving via River Road or Highway 99 at least have the choice of using the Alex Fraser Bridge to the east instead and this crossing is only 5% utilized in the northbound direction at this time. Table 2.5 Annual Growth Resulting From Opening of Alex Fraser Bridge Total South Arm Volume Annual Growth

29 21 This latent or hidden demand was illustrated when the Alex Fraser Bridge was opened in The total South Arm crossings from the Port Mann Bridge to the Alex Fraser Bridge for the five years between 1984 and 1988 are presented in Table 2.5. This indicates a phenomenal 26.6% increase over the two year period between 1985 and 1987, no doubt because of two factors. Firstly, the residents south of the river perceive jobs and shopping north of the river to be more accessible, and secondly, more vehicles crossed the river in the preferred peak hour rather than be inconvenienced and travel in the shoulders of the peak period. 2.4 Growth in Capacity Across the South Arm As was noted in Section 1.2, the South Arm of the Fraser River has experienced not only an increase in travel demand across the river, but also an increase in the total capacity provided, as additional facilities and/or improvements to existing ones have been implemented. The total peak direction capacity of these crossings, as presented in Table 2.6, has increased from 12, in 1964 after the opening of the tunnel to 18, with the opening of the Alex Fraser Bridge in For the purpose of this study, the capacity of a lane in the George Massey Tunnel was taken to be 2, vehicles per hour. The actual maximum volumes based on the data presented in Table 2.3 range from 195 to 215. An examination of hourly count data for the whole of 1988 indicated a peak volume of 5,85 through the three northbound lane, in the morning peak hour, Le., 195 vehicles per lane and 4,5 through the two southbound lanes in the afternoon peak hour, i.e., 2,25 vehicles per lane. This slight disparity could very easily be a result of the nervousness of some drivers with travelling in the contra-flow lane in a tunnel against opposing traffic. The capacity of a lane on a bridge was also taken to be 2, vehicles per hour regardless of its grade. t is sometimes assumed that the long lengths of relatively steep grades on the Alex Fraser, Pattullo and Port Mann Bridges has the effect of reducing the capacity of these facilities. An examination of 1988 count data provided by the Ministry indicated that per lane volumes on the various crossings are as follows: Crossing One-Wav Volume Per Lane Volume Port Mann Bridge Westbound Port Mann Bridge Eastbound Alex Fraser Bridge Northbound Alex Fraser Bridge Southbound Second Narrows Northbound Second Narrows Southbound Knight Street Bridge Northbound Knight Street Bridge Southbound * 187* * An asterisk indicates flow controlled by a signalized intersection upstream of the crossing. t is evident from the above that 2 vehicles per lane is a reasonable capacity figure to use for any bridge. Although the Alex Fraser bridge has now been widened to six lanes, Highway 91 between the Cliveden nterchange and Highway 91A is still only two lanes northbound which is considered to be the peak direction. Hence the total peak direction capacity has been left unchanged in Table 2.5(*). This growth in capacity with the corresponding growth in crossing volumes between the years 197 and 1989 is illustrated in Exhibit 2.9. t is evident from this exhibit that capacity and demand have increased

30 22 approximately in step with each other over the past 14 years. Table 2.6 Capacity of South Arm Crossings Facility ncremental Peak Direction CaDacitv Total Peak Direction CaDacitv Pattulo Bridge Port Mann Bridge George Massey Tunnel NB Counter Flow Lane in Tunnel Alex Fraser Bridge - 4 lanes SB Counter Flow Lane in Tunnel Alex Fraser Bridge - 6 lanes SkyBridge for SkyTrain , 4, 4, 2, (NB only) 4, 2, (SB also) 2, 7, 4, 8,OOo 12, 14, 18, 18, *18, (25?(333 The increases in volume on any facility have not been uniform over the years since the actual volume is very much controlled by the capacity available on a particular facility or an arm as a whole. Hence the flattening off in the growth plots presented earlier whenever the capacity is reached. 2.5 Physical Constraints on Highway 99 The most apparent obstacle or constraint to widening Highway 99 is the tunnel itself. The existing tunnel was floated into the river in sections and then lowered into place. t is apparent that any increase in the capacity of the tunnel will require an additional tube to be laid alongside the existing tubes. Whether this new tube is to be upstream or downstream of the existing tubes is still to be determined. The other possible key constraints are the existing overpasses which are an integral part of the Ladner, Steveston Highway and Westminster Highway nterchanges. The distance between adjacent columns will dictate how much widening of the existing pavement will be possible without having to rebuild or add a span to the overpass. Land immediately adjacent to the highway is in general undeveloped with the exception of Fantasy Gardens on the west side of the highway north of the Steveston Highway. 2.6 Projected Growth in Ferry Traffic Vehicular traffic on B.C. Ferries vessels increased at a rate of 6.5% per annum on a system wide basis between 197 and This increase in ferry traffic is the result of a combination of: increased demand increased frequency of service increased size of vessels The ferries running out of the Tsawwassen Ferry Terminal have experienced a growth even higher than this increasing from 126,6 vehicles (expressed in auto equivalents or AEQ s) in 1985 to 181,14

31 23 vehicles in 199, or an annual rate of 7.2%. B.C. Ferries expect their ridership to continue to increase over the next few years at a rate in the range of 3.7 to 5.% per annum. There are three factors that will ensure that this growth continues at least in terms of the number of vehicles through Tsawwassen Ferry Terminal. They are: a number of super-ferries that can carry 47 A.E.Q. s are now under construction - these are approximately 4% larger than the existing ferries which can carry vehicles. 199 saw the introduction of a new Tsawwassen to Nanaimo service which enables vehicles to avoid having to travel through Vancouver in order to get to the Horseshoe Bay terminal - this had a significant contribution to the 17% increase in the number of vehicles handled through the Tsawwassen Ferry Terminal between 1989 and 199; and the Tsawwassen Ferry Terminal is currently undergoing an extensive expansion program to increase the number of vessel berths and the number of vehicles that can be handled. 2.7 Role of Transit At the present time, there are approximately 32 buses travelling through the tunnel northbound in the morning peak hour. All but four of these are express buses carrying commuters from their residences in Surrey (4), White RocWSouth Surrey (11) and Ladner/Tsawwassen (13) (Delta) south of the river, to their places of employment in downtown Vancouver. The remaining four travel between Ladner and Vancouver nternational Airport. Priority measures have been provided on Highway 99 for these vehicles as they approach the tunnel from both directions to ensure that they are delayed as little as possible. For vehicles approaching from the south in the morning peak hour, the existing queue jumper lane enables buses to bypass the queues of vehicles on both Highways 99 and 17 and enter the main traffic stream just before the entrance to the tunnel. For vehicles approaching from the north in the p.m. peak hour, there is a bus only lane that extends north, from the tunnel as far as Westminster Highway. Regular vehicular traffic is sometimes backed up for up to 3 kms. waiting to pass through the tunnel. These priority measures therefore play an important role in making travel by transit as attractive as possible in terms of comparing the travel times by auto and transit. Any plan to upgrade the George Massey Tunnel must therefore ensure that transit is once again given priority, preferably more than it is given at present.

32 24 3. GROWTH N TRAVEL DEMAND 3.1 Projeckd Population Trends The future travel demand projected by any transportation planning model requires estimates of future growth of population and employment and the distribution of that growth within the study area as a basis for making any traffc projections. The Greater Vancouver Regional District has, in cooperation with each of the municipalities that make up Greater Vancouver, prepared future forecasts of household and population growth for both the region as a whole and each of the individual municipalities. These forecasts have been prepared for 1996, 21, 26 and 211. This current study sought to address the transportation needs across the Fraser River in the year 21 and therefore the population data or this year as established by G.V.R.D., was used in the study. The future projections of population alongside the 1986 population are presented for individual municipalities in Table 3.1 and illustrated on a sector basis in Exhibit 3.l(a). The population in the region as a whole is projected to increase at an annual rate of 1.7%. The distribution of the total increase in the region to the different sectors is illustrated in Exhibit 3.l(b). t will be noted that 37% of the increase in population between 1986 and 21 is projected to be "South of the Fraser River" which covers Delta, Surrey and White Rock with a further 1% in the two Langleys. The Delta population is forecasted to increase from 79,78 to 95,3 while the Surrey population will go from 181,68 to 32,3. At the same time, only 26% of the increase will be in Richmond, Vancouver, Burnaby and New Westminster. z Table 3.1 Population Projections by Municipality Municipalities Burnaby Coquitlam Delta Langley City Langley Township Maple Ridge New Westminster North Vancouver City North Vancouver District Pitt Meadows Port Coquitlam Port Moody Richmond Surrey 145,161 69,291 79,783 16,557 53,9 36,35 39,972 35,959 68,338 8,85 29,115 15,754 18, , ,9 83,2 85, 18,7 64,9 45,8 42,3 37,6 74,9 9,4 34,9 17,6 123,7 228,8 163,9 16,9 95,3 22,1 89,8 63,6 45,1 39,5 86,8 11,7 42,1 2, 147, University Endowment Lands 3,(3 3,5 314 Vancouver 432, ,5 481,3 West Vancouver 37,997 38,2 39,9 White Rock 14,387 15,9 19, Lions Bay, Belcarra 4,223 5,2 7, Vancouver CMA 1,38,729 1,537, 1,787,6

33 POPULATON NCREASE AND DSTRBUTON N GREATER VANCOUVER POPULATON GROWTH LANGLEYS 1% SOUTH OF FRASER 37% RCHMOND 1% 1 /J v NORTH SHORE 5% \ -, PllT MEADOWSMAPLE RDGE 9% NORTH EAST SECTOR BURNABY/NEW WESTMNSTER 5% VANCOUVER 11% 5. 1 POPULATON 4, 3, 2, 1, Vancouver Burnaby North Richmond South of North East Langleys Pitt Ua New West Shore Fraser Sector Meadows Maple Ridge

34 Employment Growth Trends,G.V.R.D. has also prepared similar projections for employment growth, albeit not to the same accuracy as for the population data. The 21 projections in each sector, together with the 1986 figures are illustrated in Exhibit 3.2(a). Once again the distribution of the total increase in the region to the different sections is illustrated, this time in Exhibit Employment figures for the same municipalities as specified earlier are presented in Table 3.2 and this shows that the employment opportunities will increase at a slightly faster annual rate of 2.7%. This shows that while 37% of the population increase is to be south of the Fraser River, only 24% of the employment increase is to be in this sector with a further 9% in the Langleys. Richmond, Vancouver, Burnaby and New Westminster on the other hand will account for 48% of the employment increase. This disparity between population growth and employment growth on either side of the South Arm of the Fraser River suggests that residents of Surrey and Delta will still have to commute to their jobs in the municipalities on the north side of the river. This in turn will lead to a continued increase in demand for travel across the river. Table 3.2 Employment Projections by Municipality Municipalities Burnaby Coqu i tl am Delta Langley City Langley Township Maple Ridge New Westminster North Vancouver City North Vancouver District Pitt Meadows Port Coquitlam Port Moody Richmond Surrey 68,756 17,885 17,758 2,33 22,285 9,884 22,58 2,614 15,124 1,298 8,417 3,843 55,794 52,687 8,5 22,2 21,5 3, 28,8 12,4 23,1 24, 17,3 1,6 1,7 4,4 69, 8 69,3 14,8 32,7 3,3 4,4 43,1 18,2 25,7 34,5 21,8 2,3 15,5 5,5 1,6 15,2 University Endowment Lands 7,954 8,6 1,4 Vancouver 291,192 38,3 364,2 West Vancouver 12,7 14, 18,8 White Rock 3,865 4,4 5,9 Lions Bay, Belcarra Vancouver CMA 635, ,2 944,7 3.3 Projected Travel Demand The G.V.R.D. computer based transportation planning model EMME12 was selected for use in this George Massey Tunnel Expansion Study. n order to enable it to be an effective tool for both projecting

35 EXHBT 3 =2 EMPLOYMENT NCREASE AND DSTRBUTON N GREATER VANCOUVER EMPLOYMENT GROWTH LANGLEYS 9% 1 NORTH EAST SECTOR 7% BURNABY/NEW WESTMNSTER 1 2% VANCOUVER 21 Yo 4. 35, EMPLOYMENT 3. 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Vancouver Burnaby North Richmond South of North East Langleys Pitt LB New West Shore Fraser Sector Meadows Made Ridae

36 28 future traffic volumes and analyzing and evaluating the alternative networks, a finer zone structure was established in Richmond and Delta. This allowed more accurate or finite traffic projections to be made on the alternative networks in the vicinity of the river crossings. Using data such as projected labour force, school enrolment, transportation costs, travel speeds, and road capacities, this model is able to predict the travel demand under future conditions on any given road and transit network. The overall travel demand, i.e. the number of trips between all origin and destination zones, as forecast by this model for the selected design year of 21, in both the morning and afternoon peak hours, was established by the G.V.R.D. before the commencement of this study based on the 21 land use, and road and transit networks as recommended at the end of the Greater Vancouver Transportation Task Force Study. This demand, in the form of a fixed origindestination or trip table, was then modified to fit the finer zone structure established for use in this study. n using this fixed 21 trip table in this study, it was assumed that there will be no change in the overall travel demand between origin and destination zones as a result of any of the proposed changes to the road network. This means that the total number of future trips across the South Arm of the Fraser River would also remain unchanged. This assumption is in fact contrary to the usual understanding of travel behaviour as it is generally believed that as a given route between two points becomes more attractive, i.e. there is an increase in capacity andlor a decrease in congestion along a route linking the two points, Table 3.3 Projected 21 Travel Demand Across South Arm Morning Peak Hour Destination Origin North Van- Bby N.E. Rich Shore couver N.West Sector mond South N.Delta W.Rock Delta N.Surrev S.Surrev - Langley North Shore Vancouver Burnab y1 New Westminster N.E. Sector Richmond South Delta North Delta/ North Surrey White Rock/ South Surrey Langleys

37 29 then, firstly more people will choose to take that route rather than the one they are presently using, and secondly, people will travel further to find better work opportunities. This results in longer trips in general and more of them on the improved route. The travel demand on a sector basis for all trip table pairs that result in a crossing of either the north or south arms of the Fraser River in the morning peak hour as determined by EMME12 for both 1987 and 21 is presented in Tables 3.3 and 3.4 respectively. The volumes assigned to each of the river crossings by the model - both north and south arms - using the existing network for 1987 and the "do nothing" network as described in Section 4.2 for 21 is presented in Table 3.5. Based on these results, the number of trips crossing the south arm in the morning peak hour in the peak northbound direction as projected by the model, is expected to increase from 16,4 in 1987 to 2,89 in 21, a 27% increase. Table 3.4 Projected 21 Travel Demand Across South Arm Afternoon Peak Hour Destination North Van- Bby N.E. Rich- South N.Delta W.Rock Origin --~-- Shore couver N.West Sector mond - Delta N.Surrev S.Surrev Langlev North Shore Vancouver Burnab y / New Westminster N.E. Sector Richmond South Delta North Delta/ North Surrey White Rock/ South Surrey Langleys Deficiencies with Modelling Process t must be cautioned however that the EMMER model, as with other similar models, has difficulty accurately simulating traffic volumes passing through restrictions such as bridge and river crossings. Once a trip table is input into the model, all trips are assigned to the available links regardless of the absolute capacity restriction across a screenline. This means that all trips across the South Arm will be assigned to one of the alternative crossings even though some of the links will be beyond their capacity, e.g. Port Mann Bridge with 2,25 vehicles per lane compared with the established capacity of 2,

38 3 Table 3.5 EMME/2 Projected 21 Crossing Volumes On "DO Nothing" Network (a) Morning Peak Hour )J North Arm Arthur Laing 2,614 oak street 4,43 Knight Street 3,428 Queensborough Total North Arm 1, SB 2,146 2,125 3, ,14 - NB 3,664 4,413 4, , SB 2,55 2,38 4, ,673 Growth Rate NB SB South Arm George Massey 5,78 Alex Fraser 3,628 Pattullo 3,983 Port Mann Total South Arm 16,43 1,586 1,115 1, ,136 6,67 6,149 4, ,889 1,746 1,95 2, , (b) Afternoon Peak Hour North Arm Arthur Laing 2,129 Oak Street 2,29 Knight Street 3,654 Queensborough Total North Arm 8,73 2,16 3,629 3, ,79 2,785 2,138 4, ,989 2,942 4,293 4, , S O South Arm George Massey 1,9 1 Alex Fraser 1,419 Pattullo 3,237 Port Mann Total South Arm 8,435 3,487 3,168 3, ,363 2,7 2,67 2, ,397 4,134 4,966 3, , vehicles per lane. Consequently, the model does not recognize the delays to the drivers and their passengers resulting from the queue of vehicles that builds up waiting to travel across a bridge or through the tunnel. n this particular study, the primary purpose for using the model was to compare the impact of different bridge and tunnel concepts on travel patterns. As long as the results are used for comparing the alternative concepts and not for establishing absolute volumes over specific crossings, there is no problem in using this model. A second problem with the modelling process is that it fails to take into account the surges in the volume of traffic on Highway 17 resulting from the Tsawwassen Ferry Terminal. n 1989, B.C. Ferries made 2 sailings per day from Swartz Bay to Tsawwassen Bay on their summer schedule plus two per day to the Gulf slands. n 199 the new "midisland" ferry service was introduced and in 1991 this will result in an additional 8 sailings arriving into Tsawwassen each day. With new super-ferries discharging larger

39 31 numbers of vehicles at one time and more sailings arriving during a given hour, the surges will increase in both size and frequency. EMME/:! on the other hand has simply assumed a constant growth in ferry traffic equal to the annual growth rate in Greater Vancouver s population. 3.5 Comparison of Traffic Volume Growth Rates n order to put the model s projections of future traffic volumes in context with historic growth trends, the growth rates of actual traffic volumes across the North and South Arms of the Fraser River as established in Chapter 2. of this report and presented in Tables 2.3 and 2.4 were compared to the growth rates resulting from the projections made by EMME/2 across these same screenlines between the years 1987 and 21 as presented in Table 3.2. This comparison, once again for northbound traffic volumes in the morning peak hour, is presented in graphical form in Exhibits 3.3 and 3.4. This analysis indicates that the growth rate of northbound traffic volumes crossing the South Arm of the Fraser River in the morning peak hour between 1987 and 21 as projected by EMME/2 is 1.74% per year whereas the actual historic growth rate for this same screenline over the years 1979 to 1989 as observed with actual field counts is 4.72% per year. A similar difference was found in the southbound afternoon peak hour figures as the growth rate resulting from the EMME/2 projections is 1.42% per year whereas the observed traffic counts over the period 1979 to 1989 showed a growth rate of 4.54% per year. The total South Arm traffic volumes estimated by EMME12 for 1987 were found to be approximately the same as the actual counts for both morning and afternoon peak periods. This is to be expected since the 1987 projections by EMME2 are the result of calibrating the model to represent actual 1987 conditions, based on an extensive origiddestination survey carried out in The model s projected 21 traffic volumes are clearly significantly lower than would be expected if the 1 year historic growth rate is extrapolated into the future at the same rate. Whether the model s low projections are a genuine indication of the future travel behaviour taking into account projected land use changes and travel characteristics - this implies that the growth in employment opportunities south of the Fraser River will almost keep pace with the growth in population - or simply a low estimate of real future travel characteristics is impossible to state at this time. t should be noted, however, that the EMME/2 model was calibrated based on an extensive travel characteristics survey undertaken throughout Greater Vancouver in 1985 during a time when B.C. was still suffering through a major recession. Traffic volumes were generally down during this period and it can therefore safely be assumed that trip generation rates were low. t is these same generation rates that have been implanted into the EMME/2 model for use in projecting future traffic volumes. Based on the projected growth in population and employment and the distribution of this growth to the different sectors of the region as was illustrated in Exhibits 3.1 and 3.2, it would appear that those living south of the South Arm of the Fraser River will continue to work north of the river and thus the historic annual increase in peak hour travel across the South Arm is indeed likely to continue into the future. Since however the model s projected 21 traffc volumes were used only to compare the effectiveness of each alternative road network in handling the future travel demand and not to evaluate the impact of the magnitude of the actual demand on one or more crossings, these discrepancies in growth rates have little influence on the report s conclusions as long as the concept of a fixed travel demand table applied to each network alternative is taken into account. The only aspects of the recommendations that the