Retail Market Review The Perfect Storm Edward Garner - Communications Director

Transcription

1 Retail Market Review The Perfect Storm Edward Garner - Communications Director

2 Aldi Lidl Everyone else Waitrose M&S Coping with the Perfect Storm Edward Garner - Communications Director

3 > The Agenda Market Background Squeeze & Effect Towards the Mainstream? Invading the Repertoire EDLP and meaning it The Response The Fightback Frozen Insights

4 Global Food Price Indices Food Price Index, UN FAO Food Price Index Cereals Price Index

5 Grocery Market Growth v. Inflation 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% 20/Sep/09 15/Nov/09 10/Jan/10 07/Mar/10 02/May/10 27/Jun/10 22/Aug/10 17/Oct/10 12/Dec/10 06/Feb/11 03/Apr/11 29/May/11 24/Jul/11 18/Sep/11 13/Nov/11 08/Jan/12 04/Mar/12 29/Apr/12 24/Jun/12 19/Aug/12 14/Oct/12 09/Dec/12 03/Feb/13 31/Mar/13 26/May/13 21/Jul/13 15/Sep/13 10/Nov/13 05/Jan/14 02/Mar/14 27/Apr/14 22/Jun/14 17/Aug/14 12/Oct/14 07/Dec/14 01/Feb/15 29/Mar/15 24/May/15 19/Jul/15 13/Sep/15 08/Nov/15 03/Jan/16 28/Feb/16 24/Apr/16 19/Jun/16 14/Aug/16 12 we growth (Grocers RST) 12 we inflation

6 Food and Drink as a Proportion of UK Household Expenditure % Source: ONS Series ABQI / ABZV

7 Food and Drink as a Proportion of UK Household Expenditure % 25 Housing & Utilities Source: ONS Series ABQI / ABZV

8 Total Grocery Budget Own Label Trends - 4-weekly m Latest 12-wk % Change May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug-16 Tesco Asda Sainsbury's Morrisons +26% -29% -21% -11%

9 > The Agenda Market Background Squeeze & Effect Towards the Mainstream? Invading the Repertoire EDLP and meaning it The Response The Fightback Frozen Insights

10 Annual Till Roll Totals Expenditure Trends Lidl 16 Aldi 13 Co-op 2 Waitrose 1 Total Grocers Sainsbury's Iceland Tesco -1 Morrisons -2 Independents -3 Asda w/e Aug y/y % Change

11 Long-Term Share of Till Roll Grocers Share (Expenditure)

12 Long-Term Share of Till Roll Grocers Share (Expenditure) Tesco Asda Sainsbury's Morrisons Total Aldi + Lidl

13 Latest Period Till Roll Totals - Share of Total Grocers Tesco Sainsbury's Asda Morrisons Co-op Aldi Waitrose Lidl Iceland +5.4% + 6.9bn Independents Farmfoods w/e 19 Aug w/e 14 Aug 16

14 Latest Period Till Roll Totals - Share of Total Grocers Tesco Sainsbury's Asda Morrisons Co-op Aldi Waitrose Lidl Iceland Independents Farmfoods w/e 19 Aug w/e 14 Aug 16

15 Till-Roll Trends - Annual % Change - Rolling 52wk periods Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug-16 Sainsbury's Tesco Asda Morrisons

16 Annual Till Roll Totals Expenditure Changes m Aldi 759 Lidl 668 Co-op 155 Waitrose 83 Sainsbury's w/e Aug y/y m Change

17 > The Agenda Market Background Squeeze & Effect Towards the Mainstream? Invading the Repertoire EDLP and meaning it The Response The Fightback Frozen Insights

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30 SOCIAL CLASS PROFILES - 12 W/E JUL % Class E Class D Class C2 Class C1 Class AB Waitrose M & S Sainsbury's Tesco Total Grocers Aldi Lidl Morrisons Co-op Asda Independents Iceland Farmfoods

31 Trended Aldi Loyalty Breakdown Sales % Shoppers % Aug Aug- 17-Aug- 16-Aug- 14-Aug- 19-Aug- 18-Aug- 17-Aug- 16-Aug- 14-Aug w/e periods High Loyal (>50%) Medium Loyal (>20%) Low Loyal (>0%)

32 Trended Tesco Loyalty Breakdown Sales % Shoppers % Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug- 19-Aug w/e periods Aug Aug Aug Aug- 16 High Loyal (>50%) Medium Loyal (>20%) Low Loyal (>0%)

33 Trading Indices - Aldi 52 w/e Aug Frozen Poultry+Game 186 Fruit+Veg+Salads 147 Frozen Fish 140 Fresh Meat 132 Fresh Poultry+Game 132 Packet Breakfast 111 Biscuits 107 Ambient Bakery Products 106 Canned Goods 105 Sweet Home Cooking 102 Dairy Products 100 Frozen Confectionery 100

34 Trading Indices - Lidl 52 w/e Aug Frozen Poultry+Game 166 Fresh Meat 153 Fresh Fish 150 Fruit+Veg+Salads 147 Fresh Poultry+Game 145 Sweet Home Cooking 127 Frozen Confectionery 123 Frozen Fish 117 Canned Goods 112 Packet Breakfast 108 Biscuits 106 Pickle+Tbl Sce+Condiment 104

35 Year-on-Year Expenditure Trends - % change Aldi Fresh+Chilled 19.8 TOTAL GROCERIES 14.8 Toiletries 14.7 Household 14.5 Ambient Groceries 11.5 Frozen 9.6 Alcohol w/e 14 Aug 16

36 Year-on-Year Expenditure Trends - & change Lidl Fresh+Chilled 20.5 TOTAL GROCERIES 15.6 Frozen 13.6 Household 13.6 Toiletries 13.3 Ambient Groceries 12.2 Alcohol w/e 14 Aug 16

37 120 Fresh & Chilled Trading Indices w/e 17 Aug w/e 16 Aug w/e 14 Aug 16

38 120 Fresh & Chilled Trading Indices w/e 17 Aug w/e 16 Aug w/e 14 Aug 16

39 > The Agenda Market Background Squeeze & Effect Towards the Mainstream? Invading the Repertoire EDLP and meaning it The Response The Fightback Frozen Insights

40 Aldi share amongst Asda/Aldi Shoppers - %

41 > The Agenda Market Background Squeeze & Effect Towards the Mainstream? Invading the Repertoire EDLP and meaning it The Response The Fightback Frozen Insights

42 ON PROMOTION - % Big 4

43 ON PROMOTION - % Big 4

44 ON PROMOTION - % Big 4

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46 > The Agenda Market Background Squeeze & Effect Towards the Mainstream? Invading the Repertoire EDLP and meaning it The Response The Fightback Frozen Insights

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48 PROMOTIONAL MECHANICS CONTRIBUTION TO GROWTH Tesco - 12 w/e 8% 6% Contribution to growth %pts 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% Full price Price reduction Multibuy Y for X Market growth Grocery (RST) 12w/e

49 Tesco Share Change - 12 week share year-on-year change Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug-16

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53 Grocery Share at Round Pound Prices - % - Asda Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug-16

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55 PROMOTIONAL MECHANICS CONTRIBUTION TO GROWTH Asda - 12 w/e 6% 4% Contribution to growth %pts 2% 0% -2% -4% -6%? -8% -10% Full price Price reduction Multibuy Y for X Market growth Grocery (RST) 12w/e

56 Asda Year-on-Year Trends - Till Roll % Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug w/e Periods

57 Reasons for Store Choice - It always has low prices Asda 159 Co-operative 98 Morrisons 79 Tesco 76 Sainsbury's 66 M & S 60 Waitrose 29 LinkQ Questionnaire - Outlet Share Index 52 w/e Mar

58 Reasons for Store Choice - It always has low prices Aldi 222 Asda 159 Lidl 146 Co-operative 98 Morrisons 79 Tesco 76 Sainsbury's 66 M & S 60 Waitrose 29 LinkQ Questionnaire - Outlet Share Index 52 w/e Mar

59 We've ended Brand Match to bring lower regular prices Brand Match ended on 26 April 2016

60 PROMOTIONAL MECHANICS CONTRIBUTION TO GROWTH Sainsbury's - 12 w/e 15% Contribution to growth %pts 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% Full price Price reduction Multibuy Y for X Market growth

61 Sainsbury Share Change - 12 week share year-on-year change Mar Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul-16

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65 Frosty morning? Don t worry, we ve found a use for that Morrisons card

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67 The Agenda Market Background Squeeze & Effect Towards the Mainstream? Invading the Repertoire EDLP and meaning it The Response > The Fightback Frozen Insights

68 40 Aldi Year-on-Year Trends - Till Roll % Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug w/e Periods

69 Lidl Year-on-Year Trends - Till Roll % Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug w/e Periods

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71 Long-Term Share of Till Roll Grocers Share (Expenditure)

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73 Reasons for Store Choice - Waitrose It has friendly staff 285 I like the cafe / restaurant 255 I like the own-label goods less queuing than other stores It has a good product range 158 It has a butcher's counter It has a delicatessen It has a fresh fish counter It has an in-store bakery It's near to my home I like the store's layout It sells clothing CDs etc. It has good value for money It always has low prices 29 LinkQ Questionnaire - Outlet Share Index 52 w/e Mar

74 M&S Share of Fresh & Chilled Groceries Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug-16 Share (Expenditure)

75 M&S Year-on-Year Growth Trends - RST % Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug w/e Periods

76 RST Trends - Annual % Change - Rolling 52wk periods Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug-16 Sainsbury's Tesco Asda Morrisons M&S Fresh & Chilled

77 FOR TONIGHT SHOPPER MISSIONS % WITHIN OUTLET For Tonight - Share of Occasions % 52 w/e 02 Feb w/e 01 Feb w/e 31 Jan 16 All Outlets M & S Sainsbury's Local Budgens The Co-operative Tesco Express Tesco Metro Independents Asda Aldi

78 Trended Loyalty Breakdown Waitrose % M&S % Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug- 19-Aug w/e periods Aug Aug Aug Aug- 16 High Loyal (>50%) Medium Loyal (>20%) Low Loyal (>0%)

79 Total Groceries - Net Switching Volumes - M & S Tesco 32 Asda 24 Sainsbury's 22 Co-op 20 Morrisons 17 Independents 4 Waitrose 3 All Others 2 Farmfoods M & S - 0 Iceland Ocado -3-3 Aldi -4 Lidl -7 Switching - m 52 w/e Jul vs. 52 w/e Jul

80 Total Groceries - Total Net Switching Volumes - Summary Aldi Lidl Ocado M & S Waitrose Farmfoods Iceland All Others Sainsbury's Co-op Independents Morrisons Tesco Asda Switching - Spend ( m) 52 w/e Jul vs. 52 w/e Jul

81 Total Internet Grocery - Rolling 12 w/e growth Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug- 16

82 14 Total Grocery Internet Lifestage Signatures Pre-Family Young Family 0-4 Years Middle Family 5-9 Years Family 10+ Years Older Dependents Empty Nesters Retired 52 w/e Jul

83 14 Total Grocery Internet Lifestage Signatures Pre-Family Young Family 0-4 Years Middle Family 5-9 Years Family 10+ Years Older Dependents Empty Nesters Retired 52 w/e Jul

84 14 Total Grocery Internet Lifestage Signatures Pre-Family Young Family 0-4 Years Middle Family 5-9 Years Family 10+ Years Older Dependents Empty Nesters Retired 52 w/e Jul

85 In-store theatre

86 Picture comparing a typical Aldi store entrance in Australia with its new look store in McGraths Hills in NSW

87 Picture comparing a typical Aldi store entrance in Australia with its new look store in McGraths Hills in NSW

88 Dec Feb Apr Jun Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Jan-16 Fairtrade Prepacked Bananas Market Share Total Grocers Sainsbury

89 Fairtrade Shares Sainsbury's 30 Co-op Tesco Waitrose 10 Asda 8 Morrisons 7 M & S 5 Aldi 2 Iceland Independents Lidl Farm Foods Share of Fairtrade - 52 w/e Jul

90 Mar May Jul Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Jan-16 Not-Caged Eggs Market Share Sainsbury s Asda Tesco Morrisons

91 Total Organic Grocery Products including Baby - 4 weekly m

92 Total Organic Market (inc. Baby) Rolling 52 week periods Y-on-Y Change %

93 Where Lidl shoppers prefer to shop < In other grocers In Lidl > 52 w/e Jul

94 Where Aldi shoppers prefer to shop < In other grocers In Aldi > 52 w/e Jul

95 400 Tesco - Net New/Lost & Repeat Buyers - Contribution to Change 300 Actual Contribution (000,000s) Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 16 Net New/Lost Repeat Total

96 Asda - Net New/Lost & Repeat Buyers - Contribution to Change Actual Contribution (000,000s) Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 16 Net New/Lost Repeat Total

97 350 Aldi - Net New/Lost & Repeat Buyers - Contribution to Change 300 Actual Contribution (000,000s) Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 16 Net New/Lost Repeat Total

98 200 Lidl - Net New/Lost & Repeat Buyers - Contribution to Change Actual Contribution (000,000s) Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 16 Net New/Lost Repeat Total

99 % Aldi or Lidl shoppers also shopping in Mainstream in 4 w/e July

100 The Agenda The UK Background Squeeze & Effect Towards the Mainstream? Invading the Repertoire EDLP and meaning it The Response The Fightback > Frozen Insights

101 Year-on-Year Expenditure Trends - % change All Outlets Healthcare 3.4 Fresh+Chilled 0.8 Alcohol 0.4 TOTAL GROCERIES -0.1 Frozen -0.8 Household -1.0 Ambient Groceries -1.2 Toiletries w/e 14 Aug 16

102 Year-on-Year Expenditure Trends - % change Total Frozen Lidl 13.6 Aldi 9.6 Co-op 2.9 Farmfoods 1.6 Iceland 0.4 Total Grocers -0.9 Tesco -1.6 Sainsbury's -3.1 Waitrose -3.2 Morrisons -4.4 Asda -5.8 M & S Independents w/e 14 Aug 16

103 Share of Total Grocers - Total Frozen Tesco Iceland Asda Sainsbury's Morrisons Aldi Farm Foods Lidl The Co-operative Waitrose M & S Independents w/e 16 Aug w/e 14 Aug 16

104 Year-on-Year Expenditure Trends - % change Total Fresh & Chilled Lidl Aldi M & S Waitrose Co-op Total Grocers Farmfoods Sainsbury's Tesco Morrisons Iceland Asda Independents w/e 14 Aug 16

105 Share of Total Grocers - Fresh+Chilled Tesco Sainsbury's Asda Morrisons Waitrose M & S Aldi The Co-operative Lidl Iceland Independents Farm Foods w/e 16 Aug w/e 14 Aug 16

106 Trading Index Internet Delivery Organic 193 Frozen Household Ambient Groceries Fresh+Chilled Toiletries Alcohol 82 Healthcare w/e Jul

107 Trading Index Internet Delivery Take Home Soft Drinks Savoury Carbohydrts+Sncks Chilled Drinks Canned Goods Frozen Poultry+Game Packet Breakfast Savoury Home Cooking Frozen Prepared Foods Frozen Fish Household & Cleaning Prds Frozen Confectionery Pickle+Tbl Sce+Condiment Pet Care Sweet Home Cooking Fresh Poultry+Game Dairy Products Frozen Meat Haircare Take Home Savouries Biscuits Fruit+Veg+Salads Fresh Meat Hot Beverages Chilled Convenience Bathroom Toiletries Oral-Care Alcohol Fresh Fish Ambient Bakery Products Chilled Bakery Products Healthcare Take Home Confectionery w/e Jul

108 Trading Index Internet Delivery Fresh Poultry Fresh Sausages Fresh Bacon Rashers 99 Fresh Bacon Joint Fresh Beef Fresh Pork 85 Wet/Smoked Fish Fresh Lamb w/e Jul

109 Frozen Food - Internet Share by Household Income pa pa pa pa pa pa pa w/e Jul

110 Frozen Food - Internet Share by Lifestage Pre-Family Young Family 0-4 Years Middle Family 5-9 Years Family 10+ Years Older Dependents Empty Nesters Retired 52 w/e Jul

111 Frozen Food Internet in Context 52 w/e 17 Aug w/e 16 Aug w/e 14 Aug 16 Total Frozen bn y/y % Change Internet Frozen m y/y % Change Internet Share % Internet Penetration %HH Grocer Tripsize Internet Tripsize

112 Frozen Food Ranges - Y/Y Growth m - 52 w/e Jul Youngs Gastro Birds Eye Field Fresh Deluxe (Lidl) Quorn Albert Bartlett Iceland Butchers Market Iceland Classic Birds Eye Inspirations Chicago Town Linda Mccartney (Hain) Birds Eye Harry Ramsden Ben+Jerrys Artic Royal (Iceland) Goodfellas Takeaway Aldi Specially Selected

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