The Evolving Shopper & Its Impact on Produce
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1 The Evolving Shopper & Its Impact on Produce Amir Jalaly & Chris Cowan
2 WHO are Kantar Worldpanel? HOW have shopping habits changed & the impact on produce? A CHANGING consumer landscape
3 WHO are Kantar Worldpanel? HOW have shopping habits changed & the impact on produce? A CHANGING consumer landscape
4 4
5 Kantar Noun 1. A unit of weight or measurement 5
6 Methodology The largest shopper panel in Great Britain Geographically and demographically representative of the population of GB 30,000 Households in GB
7 7
8 65 PRODUCE SUPPLIERS IN THE UK 8
9 WHO are Kantar Worldpanel? HOW have shopping habits changed & the impact on produce? A CHANGING consumer landscape
10 How we buy Groceries has changed? How we buy Produce has changed? Acting upon Change
11 FOOD Food and IS BECOMING Drink as a Proportion LESS COMPARATIVELY of UK Household Expenditure CHEAPER % % household expenditure spent on food Source: ONS Series ABQI / ABZV 11
12 BUT OTHER COSTS ARE INCREASING Food and Drink as a Proportion of UK Household Expenditure % % household expenditure spent on food 25 Housing & Utilities Source: ONS Series ABQI / ABZV 12
13 Spend on food 1970s 21% 15% Now 9% 11% ONS ABQI 13
14 Shopping habits Trips per annum Spend per trip % eating out 80% of sales 228 $ % 6 88 $ % 20 KWP Usage & Booz & Co. Analysis 14 US Dept of Agriculture Economic Research Service
15
16
17
18 Long term shares of Major Retailers UK Grocery Independents Co-ops Sainsbury's Tesco Asda 18
19 19
20 6% 1% 20
21 6.8% of Total Grocery 21
22 6.8% of Total Grocery 10% of produce value 13% of produce volume 22
23 23
24 90p 89p 89p 1 24
25 THIS HAS BEEN KEY TO ALDI S METEORIC RISE IN PRODUCE Aldi market share % % Aldi Value 52 w/e 14 Nov w/e 12 Dec w/e 09 Jan w/e 06 Feb w/e 06 Mar w/e 03 Apr w/e 01 May w/e 29 May w/e 26 Jun w/e 24 Jul w/e 21 Aug w/e 18 Sep w/e 16 Oct w/e 13 Nov w/e 11 Dec w/e 08 Jan w/e 05 Feb w/e 04 Mar w/e 01 Apr w/e 29 Apr w/e 27 May w/e 24 Jun w/e 22 Jul w/e 19 Aug w/e 16 Sep w/e 14 Oct w/e 11 Nov w/e 09 Dec w/e 06 Jan w/e 03 Feb w/e 03 Mar w/e 31 Mar w/e 28 Apr w/e 26 May w/e 23 Jun w/e 21 Jul w/e 18 Aug w/e 15 Sep w/e 13 Oct w/e 10 Nov w/e 08 Dec w/e 05 Jan w/e 02 Feb w/e 02 Mar w/e 30 Mar w/e 27 Apr w/e 25 May w/e 22 Jun w/e 20 Jul w/e 17 Aug w/e 14 Sep w/e 12 Oct w/e 09 Nov 14 25
26 How we buy Groceries has changed? How we buy Produce has changed? Acting upon Change
27 Number of times we purchase produce per year.
28 THE SHOPPER THEMSELVES? -11kgs Decline in produce volume of average household over 5 years
29 Top produce markets by spend Berries & Currants Berries & Currants Dessert Apples Tomato Banana Old Potatoes New Potatoes Easy Peelers Mushroom Peppers Grape - White Dessert Apples Tomato Old Potatoes Banana Easy Peelers Mushroom New Potatoes Grape - Red Peppers
30 Long term volume change key markets Millions tonnes Potatoes Apples Pears Brassicas Legumes Citrus Bananas Tropical Fruits Root Crops Salads Soft Fruit
31 626
32 1 YEAR 2 YEARS 3+ YEARS GROWTH DECLINE
33 1 YEAR 2 YEARS 3+ YEARS GROWTH 9% 18% 27% DECLINE 18% 15% 13% 33
34 28% % of produce market in long term decline 34
35 SOME OF THE BIGGEST CASUALTIES 35
36 How we buy Groceries has changed? How we buy Produce has changed? Acting upon Change
37 37
38 A simple problem The Challenge declining volume sales 1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000, , , , , w/e 04 Apr 10-3% -2% -2% -9% 52 w/e 03 Apr w/e 01 Apr w/e 31 Mar w/e 30 Mar 14 38
39 DO PEOPLE KNOW THEY RE BUYING LESS? Potatoes Less Potatoes Same Potatoes More Filtered to respondants who have decreased purchasing by 20%+ in last year 39
40 Competitors Convenience Shopper Journey & Decision Process 40
41 41
42 POTATO VOLUMES 12 W/E w/e 06 Feb w/e 06 Mar w/e 03 Apr w/e 01 May w/e 29 May w/e 26 Jun w/e 24 Jul w/e 21 Aug w/e 18 Sep w/e 16 Oct w/e 13 Nov w/e 11 Dec w/e 08 Jan w/e 05 Feb w/e 04 Mar w/e 01 Apr w/e 29 Apr w/e 27 May w/e 24 Jun w/e 22 Jul w/e 19 Aug w/e 16 Sep w/e 14 Oct w/e 11 Nov w/e 09 Dec w/e 06 Jan w/e 03 Feb w/e 03 Mar w/e 31 Mar w/e 28 Apr w/e 26 May w/e 23 Jun w/e 21 Jul w/e 18 Aug w/e 15 Sep w/e 13 Oct w/e 10 Nov w/e 08 Dec w/e 05 Jan w/e 02 Feb w/e 02 Mar w/e 30 Mar w/e 27 Apr w/e 25 May w/e 22 Jun w/e 20 Jul w/e 17 Aug w/e 14 Sep w/e 12 Oct 14 42
43 How we buy Groceries has changed? How we buy Produce has changed? Acting upon Change
44 WHO are Kantar Worldpanel? HOW have shopping habits changed & the impact on produce? A CHANGING consumer landscape
45 BEFORE WE GET CARRIED AWAY consumption habits rarely change quickly Our #1 4.2 dish different evening meals per week
46 Individualisation & Simplicity The Impact on Produce Healthy Snacking
47
48
49 60% % 49
50 LESS AND LESS TIME IN THE KITCHEN minutes minutes minutes 50
51 Shift from selling ingredients Ingredient = lower value 51
52 To selling solutions Dish maker = high value 52
53 But we still love our food We watch 121 hours of food programmes on TV a year We own 9 recipe books 53
54 Trade Off 54
55 Individualisation & Simplicity The Impact on Produce Healthy Snacking
56 SPEED & SIMPLICITY BECOMING MORE & MORE IMPORTANT The Need for Speed: 1 in 5 occasions described as A quick bite Simplicity: On Average only 2 prep methods at eve meals 56
57 Total Produce -11kgs 57
58 Diversifying risk by investing away from the whole head arena to spread risk
59 Price/Kg 2.14 vs vs
60 Individualisation & Simplicity The Impact on Produce Healthy Snacking
61 Meals are not easily volume expandable Of all occasions only Snacking is truly volume expandable 61
62 1 in every 5 times we eat, it s a snack
63 Healthy snacking is on the up J F M M A M J J A S O N D J F M M A M J J A
64 HEALTHY SNACKING 2.6 BILLION 2.6 billion
65 Pink Lady Apples 65
66 66
67 Long term volume change key markets Millions tonnes Apples Pears Citrus 8 Bananas 14 Tropical Fruits 36 Soft Fruit 79 67
68 8.5% 88% 22pa 68
69 WHEN IS PINK LADY CONSUMED? Breakfast Snacking Breakfast 32 Lunch Dinner Snacking 28 Lunch Dinner 69
70
71 Why do people choose Pink Lady? To get portion of fruit or veg 70 Health benefits (fibre/vitamins) 50 Lower in fat/salt/sugar 10 Lighter/not filling 8 Calorie or portion control 7
72 So we change the product communication. But is this enough to increase frequency of consumption? 72
73 42 That s how many chances you have each week to stand out in the Fridge 24 in the Cupboard 8 in the Freezer WorldpanelUsage
74 The fridge is key! Higher frequency of consumption Higher visibility 74
75 75
76 Individualisation & Simplicity The Impact on Produce Healthy Snacking
77 Shoppers are changing Consumers are changing
78 For further information please contact: Amir Jalaly Tel.: +44 (0) For further information please contact: Chris Cowan Tel.: +44 (0)
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