L emploi des seniors en Allemagne : la mobilisation de plusieurs leviers
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1 L emploi des seniors en Allemagne : la mobilisation de plusieurs leviers 15 e colloque du COR Emploi des seniors et vieillissement actif en Europe Prof. Axel Börsch-Supan, Ph.D. Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) Les colloques du COR Maison de la Chimie 30 novembre 2017
2 Outline 1. Change in employment of older workers Labor market and pension reforms 3. Which policy did it? 4. Summersault backwards in 2014
3 Employment of older workers in Germany : How Germany moved from laggard to European vanguard? International comparison Labor force participation age Men Women 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Japan Sweden Netherlands Germany UK Canada Denmark Spain Italy Belgium France Belgium Canada Denmark 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% SE US JP CA DE UK DK NL ES FR IT BE BE CA DK Source: OECD
4 Secular trends? Counterfactual LFP Men Actual LFP Education constant Education and health constant Education, health and spouse LFP constant Source: GSOEP Source: Börsch-Supan and Ferrari 2016
5 Secular trends? Counterfactual LFP Actual LFP Women Education constant Education and health constant Education, health and spouse LFP constant Source: GSOEP Source: Börsch-Supan and Ferrari 2016
6 Outline 1. Change in employment of older workers 2. Labor market and pension reforms: Agenda 2010, plus delayed 1992 reform 3. Which policy did it? 4. Summersault backwards in 2014
7 German Agenda 2010 Reforms Germany 2001: GDP growth 0.8%, unemployment 9.4% Labor market policies ( Hartz I-IV ): 1. Unemployment benefits limited to 1 year 2. Thereafter (low level) social assistance 3. Strict job search and training requirements 4. Labor market flexibilization: 1 jobs, Mini jobs, temporary work contracts, labor leasing 5. Organizational reforms ( German labor agency )
8 Pension policies: Employment of older workers in Germany : How Germany moved from laggard to European vanguard? Agenda 2010 and other reforms Germany 2035: 34 mio workers, 28 mio pensioners 1992: Gradual introduction of actuarial adjustments 1. Quasi-NDC system: sustainability factor indexes benefits to system dependency ratio (+ wages) 2. Cuts offset by (a) basic assistance ( Grundsicherung ) (b) voluntary saving accounts ( Riester pensions ) 3. Gradual increase in retirement age and closure of certain pathways into early retirement 2014: Introduction of retirement at 63
9 Outline Employment of older workers in Germany : How Germany moved from laggard to European vanguard? 1. Change in employment of older workers 2. Changes in labor market and pension policies 3. Which policy did it? 4. Summersault backwards in 2014
10 Employment rates, 2007 and 2011 Men Women 1,00 0,90 0,80 0,70 0,60 0,50 0,40 0,30 0, Denmark ,00 0,90 0,80 0,70 0,60 0,50 0,40 0,30 0, Denmark ,10 0,10 0, , Source: MPISOC
11 Employment rate [%] _ _ _24 Change of employment by age range 20 Source: OECD
12 Focus on older workers Beschäftigungsquoten in Deutschland in Prozent Employment rate [%] Headwind through more employment in spite of tailwind through demography ,9 52,3 29,2 52,1 51,0 27,5 51,0 49,3 26,0 50,1 48,3 23,4 50,0 47,5 20,5 48,8 46,0 18,5 47,6 45,1 15,7 47,0 44,7 14,9 47,4 43,2 14,2 48,0 42,5 13,1 49,0 42,5 12,5 49,4 40,0 11,8 15 bis unter 65 Jahre 55 bis unter 60 Jahre 60 bis unter 65 Jahre
13 Average retirement age Men Source: Deutsche Rentenversicherung
14 Average retirement age Women Source: Deutsche Rentenversicherung
15 Employment of older workers in Germany : How Germany moved from laggard to European vanguard? Pathways to retirement reform gradually closes pathways without actuarial adjustment Regular Old-Age Pension Long-term insured 35+ (without Long-term insured 35+ (with Women (without Women (with Unemployed (without 58 Source: Börsch-Supan and Rausch 2017 Unemployed (with adjustments) Invalid (without
16 Employment of older workers in Germany : How Germany moved from laggard to European vanguard? Pathways to retirement : closure of unemployment pathway accelerated; actuarial adjustments also for invalidity pathway Regular Old-Age Pension Long-term insured 35+ (without Long-term insured 35+ (with Women (without Women (with Unemployed (without Source: Börsch-Supan and Rausch 2017 Unemployed (with adjustments) Invalid (without Invalid (with
17 Employment of older workers in Germany : How Germany moved from laggard to European vanguard? Pathways to retirement : Gradual increase of retirement age in all pathways Regular Old-Age Pension Long-term insured 35+ (without Long-term insured 35+ (with Women (without Women (with Unemployed (without Unemployed (with adjustments) Invalid (without Invalid (with 58 Source: Börsch-Supan and Rausch 2017 Long-term insured 45+ (without Disability Pension (without adjustments) Disability Pension 40+
18 ITAX Pension claiming Employment of older workers in Germany : How Germany moved from laggard to European vanguard? Tax on working longer Implicit tax and claiming at 60 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% ITAX 60 Men Claiming Age 60 Men only, Source: Börsch-Supan and Rausch 2017
19 First conclusions: Not really due to secular trends in health, education etc. Not only due to general labor market reforms Main effect due to pension policies. Combination of: o introducing actuarial adjustments o closing pathways (women, unemployment) o raising retirement age
20 4. Summersault backwards in 2014: Retirement with 63 Regular Old-Age Pension Long-term insured 35+ (without Long-term insured 35+ (with Women (without Women (with Unemployed (without Unemployed (with adjustments) Invalid (without Invalid (with Long-term insured 45+ (without Disability Pension (without adjustments) Disability Pension 40+ Source: Börsch-Supan and Rausch 2017
21 Long-term workers (45+ years) Men Women 100% krank 100% krank 95% 1.8 years 2.5 years self mini 95% 1.3 years 1.9 years self mini 90% sonst ausbild 90% sonst ausbild 85% schule 85% schule 80% 39.0 years Zivi pflege 80% Zivi pflege 75% 34.4 years kinder alg_all SVP 75% 32.6 years 36.7 years kinder alg_all SVP 70% WZ35 WZ45 70% WZ35 WZ45 Source: Börsch-Supan, Coppola, Rausch (2014) based on SHARE
22 harmed by arduous/unhealthy work 3,5 3 2,5 Month with illness (Age 50 59) Men Women 2 1,5 1 0,5 0 WZ35 WZ45 WZ35 WZ45 Männer Frauen Source: Börsch-Supan, Coppola, Rausch (2014) based on SHARE
23 . and relatively low life-time income? 1,4 Men Männer 1,4 Women Frauen 1,2 1, ,8 0,8 0,6 0,4 EP = 46.2 EP = ,6 0,4 EP = 35.9 EP = ,2 0, Alter Alter less than 45y more than 45y less than 45y more than 45y Source: Börsch-Supan, Coppola, Rausch (2014) based on SHARE
24 Conclusions Not much evidence for secular effects (health, educ,...) Agenda 2010 reforms increased employment in all age ranges but MUCH more so in range Not one but many pension reform mechanisms: 1992 gradual introduction of actuarial adjustments Closure of entire pathways (women, unemployed) 2007 gradual increase of retirement age in all pathways Distributional impact softened by minimum pension 2014 reversal: wrong targets, politically ineffective
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