Employment of older workers in Germany
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- Clifford Booth
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1 Employment of older workers in Germany How Germany moved from laggard to European vanguard Prof. Axel Börsch Supan, Ph.D. Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy (MPISOC) & Technical University of Munich (TUM), The Survey of Health, Aging and Retireement in Europe (SHARE), National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in Cambridge, Mass., USA EU/OECD Workshop, Brussels, 28 June 2017 Change in employment of older workers Labor market and pension reforms Which policy did it? Summersault backwards in
2 Changes 2011 Men Women Denmark Denmark 2011 MPISOC Employment rate [%] Beschäftigungsquoten in Deutschland in Prozent Headwind through more employment in spite of tailwind through demography bis unter 65 Jahre 55 bis unter 60 Jahre 60 bis unter 65 Jahre 2
3 Labor force participation age Source: OECD Men Source: Deutsche Rentenversicherung 3
4 Women Source: Deutsche Rentenversicherung Change in employment of older workers Labor market and pension reforms: Agenda 2010, but also 1992 reform Which policy did it? Summersault backwards in
5 Germany 2001: GDP growth 0.8%, unemployment 9.4% Labor market policies ( Hartz I IV ): 1. Unemployment benefits limited to 1 year 2. Thereafter (low level) social assistance 3. Strict job search and training requirements 4. Labor market flexibilization: 1 jobs, Mini jobs, temporary work contracts, labor leasing 5. Organizational reforms ( German labor agency ) Pension policies: Germany 2035: 34 mio workers, 28 mio pensioners 1992: Gradual introduction of actuarial adjustments 1. Quasi NDC system: sustainability factor indexes benefits to system dependency ratio (+ wages) 2. Cuts offset by (a) basic assistance ( Grundsicherung ) (b) voluntary saving accounts ( Riester pensions ) 3. Gradual increase in retirement age and closure of certain pathways into early retirement 2014: Introduction of retirement at 63 5
6 Change in employment of older workers Changes in labor market and pension policies Which policy did it? Summersault backwards in _ _ _24 Change of employment by age range 20 Source: OECD 6
7 Until 1989 Retirement age and pathways from a pre 1992 point of view Regular Old Age Pension Long term insured 35+ (without Women (without Unemployed (without Invalid (without Source: Börsch Supan and Rausch reform gradually closes pathways without actuarial adjustment Regular Old Age Pension Long term insured 35+ (without Long term insured 35+ (with Women (without Women (with Unemployed (without Source: Börsch Supan and Rausch 2017 Unemployed (with adjustments) Invalid (without 7
8 : closure of unemployment pathway accelerated; actuarial adjustments also for invalidity pathway Source: Börsch Supan and Rausch 2017 Regular Old Age Pension Long term insured 35+ (without Long term insured 35+ (with Women (without Women (with Unemployed (without Unemployed (with adjustments) Invalid (without Invalid (with Riester reform 2001: Minimum pension, Voluntary saving accounts Regular Old Age Pension Long term insured 35+ (without Long term insured 35+ (with Women (without Women (with Unemployed (without Unemployed (with adjustments) Invalid (without Invalid (with Disability Pension (without adjustments) Source: Börsch Supan and Rausch
9 : Gradual increase of retirement age in all pathways Regular Old Age Pension Long term insured 35+ (without Long term insured 35+ (with Women (without Women (with Unemployed (without Unemployed (with adjustments) Invalid (without Invalid (with Source: Börsch Supan and Rausch 2017 Long term insured 45+ (without Disability Pension (without adjustments) Disability Pension : Summersault backwards: retirement with 63 Regular Old Age Pension Long term insured 35+ (without Long term insured 35+ (with Women (without Women (with Unemployed (without Unemployed (with adjustments) Invalid (without Invalid (with Long term insured 45+ (without Disability Pension (without adjustments) Source: Börsch Supan and Rausch 2017 Disability Pension 40+ 9
10 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 10% 20% ITAX 60 Men ITAX 61 Men ITAX 62 Men ITAX 63 Men ITAX 64 Men ITAX 65 Men Men only, Source: Börsch Supan and Rausch 2017 Implicit tax and claiming at 60 ITAX 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 10% 20% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Pension claiming ITAX 60 Men Claiming Age 60 Men only, Source: Börsch Supan and Rausch
11 Implicit tax and claiming at 61 (and later) Men only, Source: Börsch Supan and Rausch 2017 Change in employment of older workers Changes in labor market and pension policies Which policy did it? Combined effect of: introducing actuarial adjustments closing pathways (women, unemployment) raising retirement age 11
12 Actual LFP Education constant Education and health constant Education, health and spouse LFP constant Source: GSOEP Source: Börsch Supan and Ferrari 2016 Actual LFP Education constant Education and health constant Education, health and spouse LFP constant Source: GSOEP Source: Börsch Supan and Ferrari
13 Change in employment of older workers Changes in labor market and pension policies Which policy did it? Summersault backwards in 2014 Uptake of Retirement with 63 after 45 years of contributions: Government estimate (2014): MEA estimate in 2014: Actual number so far (end 2016): Men Women 100% krank 100% krank 95% 1.8 years 2.5 years self mini 95% 1.3 years 1.9 years self mini 90% sonst ausbild 90% sonst ausbild 85% schule 85% schule 80% 39.0 years Zivi pflege 80% Zivi pflege 75% 34.4 years kinder alg_all SVP 75% 32.6 years 36.7 years kinder alg_all SVP 70% WZ35 WZ45 70% WZ35 WZ45 Source: Börsch Supan, Coppola, Rausch (2014) based on SHARE 13
14 3.5 Month with illness (Age 50 59) Men WZ35 WZ45 WZ35 WZ45 Männer Women Frauen Source: Börsch Supan, Coppola, Rausch (2014) based on SHARE 1.4 Men Männer 1.4 Women Frauen EP = 46.2 EP = EP = 35.9 EP = Alter Alter less than 45y more than 45y less than 45y more than 45y Source: Börsch Supan, Coppola, Rausch (2014) based on SHARE 14
15 How Germany moved from laggard to European vanguard Agenda 2010 reforms increased employment in all age ranges but MUCH more so in range No evidence for significant general effects (health, educ,...) Not one but many pension reform mechanisms: 1992 gradual introduction of actuarial adjustments Closure of entire pathways (women, unemployed) gradual increase of retirement age in all pathways Impact softened by minimum pension and saving 2014 reversal: temporary, limited applicability, wrong targets 15
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