European Stagnation: Private sector structural balance + fiscal policy
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1 European Stagnation: Private sector structural balance + fiscal policy Jesper Jespersen, Jesperj@ruc. dk Roskilde University & Aalborg University 21 st April 2017
2 Secular(?) stagnation in EU 1. Persistently high unemployment 2. Slow growth in old Europe 3. Why? Private sector structural imbalances
3 Unemployment in the euro zone Arbejdsløshed, Euro-zonen (15 lande) So, here we are! Kilde: OECD, Economic Outlook, dec Antal personer
4 Unemployment: Eurozone & non-eurocountries 13,00 12,00 Eurozone 11,00 Percent of labour force 10,00 9,00 8,00 7,00 6,00 Non-Euro countries 5,00 4, Source:OECD, economic Outlook, June 2016
5 Increasing stagnation in old Europe,
6 Angela Merkel: It s only resting! But, she is wrong: Which a tiny drop: ECB monetary easing cannot help October 2014
7 3. why? 1. Lack of effective demand! Caused by: Private sector (structural) excess financial savings Structural: full employment (hypothetical calculation what model is used? ) Excess: financial savings > real investment (NB! S I) Excess private sector financial savings public deficit + balance of payments surplus
8 Two Sector balance! (1) Y C + I + G (2) Y Tax C + I + [G Tax] (3) Private actual excess savings: Spx Y C I Tax [G Tax] (4) Private actual excess savings public sector deficit
9 2012 Euro(15): Real Investment/GDP, Percent of GDP y = -0,1427x + 25,054 R 2 = 0,7774 No wonder Europe has a problem! Source: OECD, Economic Outlook, no.90 & 92
10 14 EU15, Real investment ratio & rate of Unemployment, Unemployment, percent y = -1,2792x + 35,384 R 2 = 0, Real investment ratio, percent
11 Real Investment ratio, Source: OECD, Econom ic Outlook, 2014 Germany Italy Euro area (15 countries) Italy Germany Percent of GDP
12 Real Fixed Capital, Germany France = Italy UK Spain France Germany Italy Spain United Kingdom Source: OECD, Economic Outlook, June 2013
13 Private sector excess savings, Eurozone & Instability! 9,00 8,00 7,00 6,00 5,00 4,00 3,00 Percent of GDP 2,00 1,00 0, ,00 Source: OECD, Economic Outlook, 2016 Lack of internal private sector demand of 6 pct. of GDP
14 No wonder Euro zone has a growth problem! Lower real investments mean: 1. Short run: lack of effective demand, causing rising unemployment 2. Long run: lower productivity growth, causing growth to slow further down But, even worse it is: 1. Re enforced by austerity policy due to misunderstood macroeconomics. Because:
15 Two Sector balance! (1) Y C + I + G (2) Y Tax C + I + [G Tax] (3) Private actual excess savings: Spx Y C I Tax [G Tax] (4) Private actual excess savings public sector deficit
16 EU(15): Getting causality right! Private Sector surplus <==> Public Sector Deficit? Excess Private saving public deficit (and foreign surplus) Percent of GDP Public sector Privat sector Source:OECD, Economic Outlook, no. 90 & 93 R2=0,82, trivial 1. Collapse of private real investment 2. Unemployment 3. Public sector budget deficit
17 4,00 Current Budget and Structural Budget, ,00 2,00 Percent of GDP 1,00 0,00 1,00 2,00 3,00 4,00 5,00 The Euro: why it failed. Germany Italy The misunderstood macroeconomics countries) United Kingdom Poland France Spain Euro area (15 Jesper Jespersen Roskilde University, Denmark PSBR structural budget 6,00 Source: OECD, Economic Outlook, 2016 Blue column: actual budget
18 Limits to the public sector structural and actual budget is destabilizing! The private sector is not self adjusting to full employment and for sure not within the euro zone (semi closed area) So, the conventional calculation of the structural public sector budget is only a measure of fiscal policy. (½ pct.) If it is smaller than the current deficit fiscal policy is too restrictive to create full employment. The current deficit is just a mirror picture of the lack of effective demand The relevant calculation is: how much extra effective demand is needed to create full employment!
19 7 What we see is an EU imposed Austerity Bias adding to the stagnation Fiscal policy: underlying primary public budget, procent af BNP Series Kilde: OECD, Economic Outlook
20 A case study: Spain SPAIN: Unemployment, Public Sector and Fiscal Policy 30,00 Percent of GDP and Percent of Labour Force 25,00 20,00 15,00 10,00 5,00 0,00-5,00-10, Public Sector Budget Unemployment Fiscal Policy -15,00 Source:OECD, Economic Outlook, 2016
21 Country study Why has Spain come out so much weaker than Germany during the crisis? Balance of payments makes a difference!
22 Three sector balances! (1) Y C + I + G + [E M] (3) Private excess savings: Spx Y C I Tax [G Tax] + [E M] (4) Public sector budget deficit: [G Tax] Spx [E M] So, Public sector deficit Private excess savings + balance of payments deficit
23 Balance of payments imbalances 10% Betalingsbalancen i pct. af BNP, - 5% 0% -5% Belgien Finland Irland Grækenland Portugal Holland Østrig Spanien Italien Frankrig Tyskland Danmark Sverige Storbritannien Euro-zone USA -10% -15% -20% light blue Spain Germany Kilde: OEDC, Economic Outlook dark blue German surplus, 200 bill. Eurozone
24 Forthcoming, November 2016
25 Accumulated wealth, 2014 Bill. Euro France Germany Italy Spain Priv. finans Wealth Foreign Wealth Public Debt
26 Figure 5.A.1 Spain: private Savings=>Unemployment, Unemployment y = x R² = Source: OECD Economic Outlook No. 99 Private excess Savings
27 Spain: Excess savings and B o P Appendix 5.A.2. Spain: Private Excess Savings & Balance of Payment Balance of Payments Private Excess Savings Trendline: y = 0,4748x - 4,1671 R 2 = 0,6742 Source: OECD Economic Outlook No. 99
28 Figure 5.A.3. Spain: Unemployment & Public Sector Budget, Public Sector Budget Source: OECD Economic Outlook No. 99 Note: time period shortened due to changed fiscal policy Unemployment Trendline: y = -0,8176x + 7,9497 R 2 = 0,8192
29 Diverging Economies
30 Old Euro stagnation 1. Falling rate of real investment 2. Private excess savings 3. Not counterbalanced by fiscal policy due to misunderstood macroeconomics 4. Balance of payments imbalances due to fixed exchange rates
31 Thank you for your attention
32 Uneven development Unemployment: Eurozone & non-eurocountries 13,00 12,00 Eurozone 11,00 Percent of labour force 10,00 9,00 8,00 7,00 6,00 Non-Euro countries 5,00 4, Source:OECD, economic Outlook, June 2016
33 Unemployment: high and unfairly distributed, 2015 All euro-countries (or fixed rate)
34 Inspiration from Keynes: How to analyse uncertainty Keynes reading Mathematics and Philosophy in Cambridge His fellowship dissertation (1909) submitted to King s college was later (1921) published: Treatise on Probability It demonstrates that Keynes was a highly sophisticated mathematician, but it also underscored his views about uncertainty, knowledge and risk. Keynes understood that some risks could not be calculated or compared because they relied on assumptions about the future which had no basis in probability [or reality], which made these calculations simply wrong. Source: Jobs do not come by themselves!
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