Project Niagara. within the Town of Niagara-on-the-Lake

Transcription

1 Traffic Traffic Impact Impact Study Study Project Niagara within the Town of Niagara-on-the-Lake Prepared for: Project Niagara July 2009

2 Traffic Impact Study PROJECT NIAGARA Niagara-On-The-Lake, Ontario Prepared for: Project Niagara July 2009

3 Project Niagara Traffic Impact Study TABLE OF CONTENTS 1.0 INTRODUCTION Proposed Development Proposed Study Area EXISTING CONDITIONS Existing Roadways Existing Traffic Volumes Existing Traffic Analysis TRAFFIC FORECAST Background Traffic Volumes Background 2012 Traffic Analysis SITE GENERATED TRAFFIC Trip Generation Trip Distribution and Assignment FUTURE TOTAL TRAFFIC Site Access Total 2012 Traffic Analysis Total 2017 Traffic Analysis Traffic Infiltration Other Site Considerations CONCLUSIONS...39 LIST OF APPENDICES Appendix Existing PM and Saturday Synchro Analysis Output Sheets Appendix Future Background PM and Saturday Synchro Analysis Output Sheets Appendix Future Total PM and Saturday Synchro Analysis Output Sheets Appendix Future Total PM and Saturday Synchro Analysis Output Sheets TN1370TNA00 i

4 Project Niagara Traffic Impact Study LIST OF EXHIBITS Exhibit Project Niagara Concept Plan Exhibit Study Area Exhibit 2.2 PM Peak Hour- Existing Traffic Exhibit 2.3 Saturday Peak Hour- Existing Traffic Exhibit Future Background PM Traffic Volumes Exhibit Future Background Saturday Traffic Volumes Exhibit Future Background PM Traffic Volumes Exhibit Future Background Saturday Traffic Volumes Exhibit 4.1 Site Generated Trips PM Peak Hour Exhibit 4.2 Site Generated Trips Saturday Peak Hour Exhibit Future Total Traffic Volumes PM Peak Hour Exhibit Future Total Traffic Volumes Saturday Peak Hour Exhibit Future Total Traffic Volumes PM Peak Hour Exhibit Future Total Traffic Volumes Saturday Peak Hour LIST OF TABLES Table 2.1 Level of Service Definitions Table 2.2 Unsignalized Operational Performance 2009 Existing Traffic Conditions Table 2.3 Signalized Operational Performance 2009 Existing Traffic Conditions Table 3.1 Unsignalized Operational Performance 2012 Background Traffic Conditions Table 3.2 Signalized Operational Performance 2012 Background Traffic Conditions Table 5.1 Unsignalized Operational Performance 2012 Total Traffic Conditions Table 5.2 Signalized Operational Performance 2012 Total Traffic Conditions Table 5.3 Unsignalized Operational Performance 2017 Total Traffic Conditions Table 5.4 Signalized Operational Performance 2017 Total Traffic Conditions TN1370TNA00 ii

5 Project Niagara Traffic Impact Study 1.0 INTRODUCTION Delcan Corporation was retained by Project Niagara to undertake a traffic impact study for the proposed music festival development to be located on the Parks Canada Lands along Lakeshore Road within the Town of Niagara-On-The-Lake (NOTL). Project Niagara is a joint initiative by the Toronto Symphony Orchestra and Ottawa's National Arts Centre Orchestra to create an international music festival based in Niagara. These groups are working on completing a feasibility study and are currently liaising with the Region of Niagara and the Town of NOTL. The project team met with Regional and Town engineering and planning staff prior to commencing this study in order to develop a terms of reference for the traffic study. This terms of reference defined the parameters and extent of the review to be undertaken, such as study area limits, horizon years, time periods of analysis, data availability and traffic forecast assumptions. In general, the objectives of the traffic impact study included: Estimate traffic volumes to be generated by Project Niagara. Identify mode splits and primary access routes to the Music Festival. Forecast future traffic volumes for horizon years within the study area. Review the potential for traffic infiltration into adjacent neighbourhoods. Analyze intersection and roadway operations within the study area for each horizon year. Recommend appropriate improvements to the adjacent roadways surrounding the site to mitigate any negative development impacts. 1.1 Proposed Development Project Niagara will be a music festival featuring two of North America s finest orchestras along with other orchestras as well as with music from many other genres. Project Niagara has found synergies with regional arts, culture and heritage offerings as well as local wineries and other important drivers of Niagara s economic development and tourism community. TN1370TNA00 1

6 Project Niagara Traffic Impact Study It is our understanding that the surrounding Parks Canada Lands will also be developed as public open space with some interpretative sites and park land. The facility is proposed to operate from June to September with approximately 50 events. The site will include an amphitheatre with 2000 seats under cover and vineyard style seating on a terraced lawn along with onsite parking facilities for patrons and shuttle bus service from other satellite locations. Employee parking will be accommodated at offsite locations with the use of shuttle buses. The concept plan is presented in Exhibit 1.1. Exhibit Project Niagara Concept Plan TN1370TNA00 2

7 Project Niagara Traffic Impact Study 1.2 Proposed Study Area The proposed 70-acre site is situated on the Parks Canada Lands on Lakeshore Road west of the Old Town in NOTL. The project study area encompasses the immediate road system in the vicinity of the development and a number of key intersections on the primary arterial and collector roadways that may be considered for access. The project study area is illustrated in Exhibit 1.2. Exhibit Study Area Legend Study Area TN1370TNA00 3

8 Project Niagara Traffic Impact Study Twelve intersections within the study area have been analyzed including two proposed site accesses. These intersections include: Regional Road 87 Lakeshore Road and East West Line Regional Road 87 Lakeshore Road and Project Niagara Accesses Regional Road 87 Lakeshore Road and Four Mile Creek Road Regional Road 87 Lakeshore Road and Niven Road Regional Road 87 Lakeshore Road and Garrison Village Drive Regional Road 87 Lakeshore Road/Mary Street and Niagara Stone Road East West Line and Four Mile Creek Road Regional Road 55 Niagara Stone Road and Garrison Village Drive Regional Road 55 Niagara Stone Road and East West Line Regional Road 55 Niagara Stone Road and Four Mile Creek Road Regional Road 55 Niagara Stone Road and Concession 6 Regional Road 55 Niagara Stone Road and Niven Road Additionally, the Region of Niagara was undertaking a Class Environmental Assessment Study for Lakeshore Road from Four Mile Creek Road to East West Line. The purpose of the study was to introduce improvements to the complete the Greater Niagara Circle route and existing roadway geometry as required. This study has been put on hold pending the outcome of the Project Niagara Feasibility review. TN1370TNA00 4

9 Project Niagara Traffic Impact Study 2.0 EXISTING CONDITIONS 2.1 Existing Roadways The primary roadways servicing the study area include: Lakeshore Road (Regional Road 87) which is a two lane roadway extending from East West line to Mississauga Street. Four Mile Creek Road (Regional Road 100) which is a two lane roadway extending from the City of Niagara Falls municipal boundary to Niagara Stone Road (Regional Road 55). Four Mile Creek Road (NOTL roadway) which is a two lane roadway extending from Niagara Stone Road (Regional Road 55) to Lakeshore Road (Regional Road 87). East West Line (NOTL roadway) which is a two lane roadway extending from Lakeshore road (Regional Road 87) to Niagara Parkway. Niagara Stone Road (Regional Road 55) which is a two lane roadway extending from York Road (Regional Road 81) to Mary Street. Mary Street (NOTL roadway) which is a two lane roadway extending from King Street to Mississauga Street. Mississauga Street (NOTL roadway) which is a two lane roadway extending from Queen Street to Mary Street. Additionally, several roadways service the community s connectivity to the provincial highway system and to adjacent municipalities. To the west, Carlton Street (Regional Road 83) and Lakeshore Road (Regional Road 87) provide connectivity to the City of St. Catharines via bridges spanning the Welland Ship Canal. To the south, the Niagara Parkway, Taylor Road (Regional Road 70) and Four Mile Creek Road (Regional Road 100) connect the community to the City of Niagara Falls. Niagara Stone Road (Regional Road 55) provides access to the Queen Elizabeth Way (QEW) and Highway 405 (via QEW). The Highway 405 and QEW corridors also provide the connectivity to the International Bridge Crossings. Other area roadways such as Niven Road and Garrison Road are recognized as servicing a local function to adjacent properties, as such, these roadways are not proposed to service Project Niagara traffic. TN1370TNA00 5

10 Project Niagara Traffic Impact Study 2.2 Existing Traffic Volumes Delcan obtained traffic count information from the Region of Niagara which was collected between 2003 and 2008 during both peak and off peak seasons. The count information included both 8 hour turning movement counts and 24 hour link volume counts. Additionally, the study utilized counts undertaken by Delcan over the past two years within the Town. For the purpose of assessing the traffic impact of the development on the area roadway network, the critical time periods must be identified. These periods occur when the existing roadway volumes and the proposed site trip generation would be at their highest combined levels. In this particular case, two periods have been identified. The first occurs during a weekday evening and the other during Saturday midday. During other time periods, the estimated site traffic and volume of traffic on the area roads are considered to be lower. This approach to the evaluation of the development proposal allows the traffic analysis to consider the operations for more severe conditions than may be expected to occur during other time periods. Utilizing the available traffic data, base year (2009) weekday evening and Saturday midday peak hour traffic volume estimates on the roadway system were prepared for summer conditions. The evening estimates were derived by balancing the available weekday traffic volume count information and adjusting for evening peak hour conditions. The Saturday traffic volumes were estimated based on the relationship between weekday and weekend traffic volumes during the peak season. This relationship was derived through 24 hour traffic counts collected on area roadways. The existing 2009 base year traffic volumes are presented in Exhibit 2.2 and Exhibit 2.3 for the existing weekday evening and Saturday midday peak hours, respectively. TN1370TNA00 6

11 SITE Niagara Stone Road Lakeshore Road East West Line Four Mile Creek Road Niven Road Garrison Village Drive Concession East West Line Niagara Stone Road N.T.S. PM PEAK HOUR EXISTING 2009 TRAFFIC VOLUMES EXHIBIT 2.2

12 SITE Niagara Stone Road Lakeshore Road East West Line Four Mile Creek Road Niven Road Garrison Village Drive Concession East West Line Niagara Stone Road N.T.S. SATURDAY PEAK HOUR EXISTING 2009 TRAFFIC VOLUMES EXHIBIT 2.3

13 Project Niagara Traffic Impact Study 2.3 Existing Traffic Analysis A Synchro (macroscopic) analysis of traffic conditions for existing and future traffic scenarios was undertaken to determine if there are any problematic intersections based on Level of Service (LOS), volume to capacity ratio (v/c) and delay time. The measure of LOS provides insight into how well the intersection is operating and is expressed as a letter between A and F, based on delay. The LOS thresholds are present in Table 2.1: Table Level of Service Definitions Level of Service (LOS) Unsignalized Intersection Average Delay (Seconds) Signalized Intersection Average Delay (Seconds) A 0 to 10 0 to 10 B >10 to 15 >10 to 20 C > 15 to 25 > 20 to 35 D >25 to 35 >35 to 55 E >35 to 50 >55 to 80 F >50 >80 Source: Highway Capacity Manual, 2000 SimTraffic (microscopic) analysis was also undertaken in specific locations to assist in assessing potential traffic problem areas requiring correction and to further analyze complex intersections for queuing and operations. A series of input parameters are required to undertake traffic analysis. These parameters for this study were selected based on industry and Niagara Region s accepted practices and are presented below: A peak hour factor of 0.95 was to be utilized in all runs. A base saturation flow rate of 1900 for all movements. Signal timings were optimized for all analysis years. The operations of the adjacent intersections and the proposed principal accesses were examined using Synchro/Simtraffic. The analysis examined the weekday evening and Saturday midday peak hour conditions for the following scenarios: 2009 Existing Traffic Background Traffic Total Traffic Total Traffic. TN1370TNA00 9

14 Project Niagara Traffic Impact Study The results from the traffic analysis for both signalized and unsignalized intersections are presented below. For the purpose of signalized and unsignalized intersections the critical movement V/C threshold is defined as This is the point at which the traffic movement has reached 90% of its capacity and consideration should be given to planning for improvements in the future Unsignalized Intersections The Synchro capacity analysis completed for unsignalized intersections during the weekday evening and Saturday midday peak hours under existing traffic conditions are summarized in Table 2.2. The Synchro output sheets for the existing traffic analysis are provided in Appendix 1. Table 2.2 Unsignalized Operational Performance 2009 Existing Traffic Conditions PM PEAK HOUR Unsignalized Intersections LOS if E or F Delay (s) V/C East West Line and Four Mile Creek Road RR 87 Lakeshore Road and East West Line RR 87 Lakeshore Road and Four Mile Creek Road RR 87 Lakeshore Road and Niven Road RR 87 Lakeshore Road and Garrison Village Drive RR 55 Niagara Stone Road and Niven Road RR 55 Niagara Stone Road and Concession SATURDAY PEAK HOUR East West Line and Four Mile Creek Road RR 87 Lakeshore Road and East West Line RR 87 Lakeshore Road and Four Mile Creek Road RR 87 Lakeshore Road and Niven Road RR 87 Lakeshore Road and Garrison Village Drive RR 55 Niagara Stone Road and Niven Road SBL=E RR 55 Niagara Stone Road and Concession 6 NBL=F SBL=E The Synchro capacity analyses completed for all unsignalized intersections during the weekday evening and Saturday midday peak hours under existing traffic conditions indicates that all intersections are operating satisfactorily with some movements during the Saturday peak hour experiencing higher levels of delay. TN1370TNA00 10

15 Project Niagara Traffic Impact Study Specifically, the intersection of Concession 6 with Niagara Stone Road is experiencing notable delays for the northbound and southbound left turn movements. Although the delay is high for these movements, the v/c ratio indicates that there is still sufficient reserve capacity given the current physical geometry. The requirement for improvements to this intersection was identified in the NOTL Transportation Master Plan and the Region of Niagara has already identified this intersection in their capital forecasts for traffic operations and traffic control improvements. The situation should be monitored by the Region of Niagara as part of their annual intersection operation reviews to determine when traffic control modifications are required (e.g. traffic signals, roundabout). The southbound left turn movement at the intersection of Niven Road and Niagara Stone Road currently experiences a notable level of delay during the Saturday midday peak hour. The delay to the southbound left turn movement (which represents a low volume of traffic) at Niven Road is impacted by the availability of appropriate gaps in the Niagara Stone Road traffic stream. The delay values as presented in Table 2.2 is overstated as it has been calculated using the Synchro capacity software which does not account for gaps created by upstream traffic signals. For example, as the Garrison Village Drive traffic signal cycles to red, additional breaks in the traffic stream along Niagara Stone Road are created for Niven Road and other adjacent unsignalized intersections and/or private driveways. During the peak hours this is a common situation that occurs along arterial roadways Signalized Intersections Capacity analysis of the four signalized intersections was conducted under existing traffic conditions and the findings are presented in Table 2.3. The Synchro output sheets for the existing traffic analysis are provided in Appendix 1. TN1370TNA00 11

16 Project Niagara Traffic Impact Study Table 2.3 Signalized Operational Performance 2009 Existing Traffic Conditions Signalized Intersection RR 87 Lakeshore Road/Mary Street and Niagara Stone Road RR 55 Niagara Stone Road and East West Line RR 55 Niagara Stone Road and Garrison Village Drive RR 55 Niagara Stone Road and Four Mile Creek Road RR 87 Lakeshore Road/Mary Street and Niagara Stone Road RR 55 Niagara Stone Road and East West Line RR 55 Niagara Stone Road and Garrison Village Drive RR 55 Niagara Stone Road and Four Mile Creek Road LOS Delay/ Veh (sec.) PM PEAK HOUR V/C Critical V/C (>=0.90) B A A A SATURDAY PEAK HOUR B A A B As presented in Table 2.3, all signalized intersections within the study area are operating satisfactorily under existing traffic conditions with a LOS of B or better and there are no critical movements. TN1370TNA00 12

17 Project Niagara Traffic Impact Study 3.0 TRAFFIC FORECAST 3.1 Background Traffic Volumes The projected growth in background traffic will take place independently of the current development proposal. Through discussions with Regional staff and to be consistent with the Town of NOTL Transportation Master Plan, it was determined that a 1% per annum area wide growth factor would sufficiently account for new area traffic resulting from other sources. For the purpose of this study, both 2012 and 2017 background forecasts were prepared. Since Project Niagara is anticipated to be completed by 2012, the 2017 traffic analysis was undertaken only for the 2017 total traffic condition (which includes 2017 background and proposed site generated traffic from Project Niagara). Exhibits 3.1 and 3.2: 2012 background traffic for the weekday evening and Saturday midday peak hours, respectively. Exhibits 3.3 and 3.4: 2017 background traffic for the weekday evening and Saturday midday peak hours, respectively. 3.2 Background 2012 Traffic Analysis Synchro capacity analysis completed for signalized and unsignalized intersections during the weekday evening and Saturday midday peak hours under future 2012 background traffic conditions and is discussed below Unsignalized Intersections The Synchro capacity analysis completed for unsignalized intersections during the weekday evening and Saturday midday peak hours under future 2012 background traffic conditions is summarized in Table 3.1. The Synchro output sheets for the 2012 background traffic analysis are provided in Appendix 2. TN1370TNA00 13

18 SITE Niagara Stone Road Lakeshore Road East West Line Four Mile Creek Road Niven Road Garrison Village Drive Concession East West Line Niagara Stone Road N.T.S. PM PEAK HOUR FUTURE 2012 BACKGROUND TRAFFIC VOLUMES EXHIBIT 3.1

19 SITE Niagara Stone Road Lakeshore Road East West Line Four Mile Creek Road Niven Road Garrison Village Drive Concession East West Line Niagara Stone Road N.T.S. SATURDAY PEAK HOUR FUTURE 2012 BACKGROUND TRAFFIC VOLUMES EXHIBIT 3.2

20 SITE Niagara Stone Road Lakeshore Road East West Line Four Mile Creek Road Niven Road Garrison Village Drive Concession East West Line Niagara Stone Road N.T.S. PM PEAK HOUR FUTURE 2017 BACKGROUND TRAFFIC VOLUMES EXHIBIT 3.3

21 SITE Niagara Stone Road Lakeshore Road East West Line Four Mile Creek Road Niven Road Garrison Village Drive Concession East West Line Niagara Stone Road N.T.S. SATURDAY PEAK HOUR FUTURE 2017 BACKGROUND TRAFFIC VOLUMES EXHIBIT 3.4

22 Project Niagara Traffic Impact Study Table 3.1 Unsignalized Operational Performance 2012 Background Traffic Conditions PM PEAK HOUR Unsignalized Intersections LOS if E or F Delay (s) V/C East West Line and Four Mile Creek Road RR 87 Lakeshore Road and East West Line RR 87 Lakeshore Road and Four Mile Creek Road RR 87 Lakeshore Road and Niven Road RR 87 Lakeshore Road and Garrison Village Drive RR 55 Niagara Stone Road and Niven Road RR 55 Niagara Stone Road and Concession SATURDAY PEAK HOUR East West Line and Four Mile Creek Road RR 87 Lakeshore Road and East West Line RR 87 Lakeshore Road and Four Mile Creek Road RR 87 Lakeshore Road and Niven Road RR 87 Lakeshore Road and Garrison Village Drive RR 55 Niagara Stone Road and Niven Road SBL=E RR 55 Niagara Stone Road and Concession 6 NBL=F SBL =E The Synchro capacity analysis completed for all unsignalized intersections during the weekday evening and Saturday midday peak hours under 2012 background traffic conditions indicates that all intersections would be operating satisfactorily. As in the 2009 scenario, the intersections of Niven Road and Niagara Stone Road and Niagara Stone Road and Concession 6 are forecast to continue to experience notable levels of delay to side street left turning traffic during the Saturday midday peak hour. The Concession 6 and Niagara Stone Road intersection carries higher volumes of traffic and continued monitoring for the need for traffic control improvements should be undertaken by the Region of Niagara Signalized Intersections Capacity analysis of the four signalized intersections under 2012 background traffic conditions was conducted and the findings are presented in Table 3.2. The Synchro output sheets for the future 2012 background traffic analysis are provided in Appendix 2 for the weekday evening and Saturday midday peak hours. TN1370TNA00 18

23 Project Niagara Traffic Impact Study Table 3.2 Signalized Operational Performance 2012 Background Traffic Conditions Signalized Intersection RR 87 Lakeshore Road/Mary Street and Niagara Stone Road RR 55 Niagara Stone Road and East West Line RR 55 Niagara Stone Road and Garrison Village Drive RR 55 Niagara Stone Road and Four Mile Creek Road RR 87 Lakeshore Road/Mary Street and Niagara Stone Road RR 55 Niagara Stone Road and East West Line RR 55 Niagara Stone Road and Garrison Village Drive RR 55 Niagara Stone Road and Four Mile Creek Road LOS Delay/ Veh (sec.) PM PEAK HOUR V/C Critical V/C (>=0.90) B A A A SATURDAY PEAK HOUR B B A B As presented in Table 3.2, all signalized intersections within the study area would be operating satisfactorily under 2012 background traffic conditions with a LOS of B or better. TN1370TNA00 19

24 Project Niagara Traffic Impact Study 4.0 SITE GENERATED TRAFFIC Site generated traffic for the proposed Project Niagara site was developed from a first principles approach based on the amount of onsite and satellite parking to be provided. The current site concept plan proposes a total of 2000 on-site parking spaces with the balance of the parking to be provided in off-site locations which could include: Newly developed parking areas outside of the study. Under utilized existing parking within the June to September operating season (e.g. Niagara College, School board properties, etc.). Partnerships with business within the community of NOTL (e.g. wineries, hotels, etc.). Partnerships with business in adjacent communities (e.g. casino, hotels, etc.). Patrons would be shuttled from these off site parking locations to the Project Niagara venue utilizing existing shuttles or newly initiated shuttle services. These services could be developed independently by Project Niagara or in cooperation with the Town and/or other community businesses in order to improve overall mobility throughout the Town and increase access to the core tourist areas during the peak summer season. These satellite parking areas can be used to coordinate and manage not only patron parking, but employees of the various participating businesses. These opportunities and formats should be further explored in the next phases of the Project Niagara development. Additional traffic to be generated by the site will include employee trips and delivery/service vehicle trips. The employee traffic will be controlled and directed to an off site location from which employees will be shuttled to the site. These trips will occur outside of the peak period of Project Niagara s operation. Delivery and service vehicle trips will also be schedule during off peak periods. With the introduction and enhancement of other travel modes/services to Niagara Region such as: District Airport, GO Bus, GO train, future marine connections and inter/intra municipal transit, the use of automobiles will be reduced. The resulting mode shift has not been considered in this document, thus the analysis presented in this report represents a conservative assessment of future roadway operations. TN1370TNA00 20

25 Project Niagara Traffic Impact Study 4.1 Trip Generation Based on information provided by Project Niagara, there are 50 seasonal events proposed for the venue. These events vary in anticipated attendance and current estimates assume that 75% of the events will have an attendance of 5000 or less and 90% of the events will have an attendance of 7000 or less. Given that a majority of the events (75%) will have an attendance not greater than 5000, it was considered appropriate to use this value for the purpose of traffic analysis. However, recognizing that there is a smaller portion of events that will exceed 5000 in attendance, a sensitivity analysis was completed using the 7000 attendance value, which accounts for about 90% of all events and the 9000 value which accounts for the balance. To determine the overall traffic that would be generated by Project Niagara, consideration must be given to the overall attendance and the proportion of vehicles that will be accommodated via on-site versus satellite parking locations. Assessing the onsite parking supply for this development was a function of the available roadway capacity within the immediate area. Although other area roadways and intersections will be assessed as part of the traffic analysis, Lakeshore Road, being the frontage road for the development, will be used by all site generated traffic and, as such, will govern how much additional site traffic can be accommodated. Working from the assumption that Lakeshore Road will not be widened for additional through lane capacity, the total carrying capacity is limited. As such, a sensitivity analysis was undertaken to determine the spare capacity along Lakeshore Road during the two peak analysis periods as a starting point for estimating traffic generation. A review of the future background traffic projects for the weekday and Saturday peak hours revealed that Saturday was the critical time period which should be used to establish surplus roadway capacity along Lakeshore Road and ultimately the on-site parking supply. The carrying capacity for a two lane rural roadway is estimated to be about 850 vehicles per hour per lane (1700 vph two-way). The future background forecast volumes adjacent to the site on Lakeshore Road for the Saturday analysis hour will be about 410 two way trips. Thus, 1390 additional trips could be accommodated on this section of Lakeshore Road. Allowing for peaking and reserving some spare TN1370TNA00 21

26 Project Niagara Traffic Impact Study capacity, it was assumed that the maximum additional trips should not exceed 90% of the available roadway capacity. This value translates to about 1100 new site trips during the analysis peak hours. Based on experience at other outdoor summer music festivals of the type envisioned here (Ravinia, Tanglewood, Blossom etc.) the Festival grounds are anticipated to open three hours prior to the concert start time. The attending audience would use the pre-concert hours to picnic (picking up hampers on-site or bringing their own), sit on the lawn, visit, play ball, etc. Although experience with other festivals suggests that arrivals are staggered over the three hour period, we have taken a very conservative approach to measuring arrivals at the Project Niagara site. Specifically, for the purpose of our study we have assumed that 65% of all vehicles destined for on site parking will arrive in the hour preceding the event. Based on this information the resulting analysis would represent a worst case scenario in terms of site arrivals, and has been utilized to provide a conservative assessment of the roadway transportation impacts. Assuming that 1000 new auto site trips will be arriving during the analysis peak hour (hour preceding the event), which represents 65% of all site destined auto trips, the overall number of trips (on-site parking capacity) that can be accommodated is approximately Utilizing an average group size of 2.1 persons per auto, the 1500 vehicles translate to 3150 patrons. The balance of these patrons (1850) will be accommodated by either tour buses or shuttle buses. Not all patrons utilizing the tour buses or shuttle services will arrive in the hour preceding the event. This spread is influenced by both the individual s desires to travel to the venue, tour schedules and the timing and logistics of the shuttle bus operations. For the purpose of this analysis it has been assumed that 50% of the buses will arrive in each of the two preceding hours. It has been assumed that approximately 400 patrons will arrive in tour buses which translate to about 8 vehicles, 4 of which will arrive during the hour preceding the event. The remainder (1450) will be shuttled. The term shuttle bus is representative of a series of vehicle types which could include limousines, taxis, hotel vans and buses. Since this distribution is not known at this time, a conservative estimate of average vehicle occupancy was used (20 persons/vehicle) to account for the mix of vehicle types. The occupancy translates to 73 shuttle TN1370TNA00 22

27 Project Niagara Traffic Impact Study vehicle trips, 37 of which will arrive during the hour preceding the event. In summary, during the peak hour of analysis (hour preceding the event) 1000 autos, 4 tour buses and 37 shuttle vehicle trips will arrive on site, for a total of 1041 vehicles. The preceding analysis was undertaken based on an attendance of 5000 persons which accommodates 75% of anticipated events during a season. As previously presented, an attendance of 7000 persons would account for 90% of all anticipated events. The net effect of the additional 2000 persons is documented below. All additional patrons would arrive at the site by either shuttle or tour bus as no additional on site parking has been assumed. Maintaining the same proportion for tour bus activity, 500 patrons would be accommodated by 10 tour buses. The remaining 1500 patrons would be accommodated by 75 additional shuttle vehicle trips. Therefore, during the hour preceding the event, an additional 43 (50%) vehicle trips are anticipated. Similarly, for the 9000 person attendance scenario, an additional 86 vehicle trips (over the 5000 scenario) would be anticipated in the hour preceding the event. 4.2 Trip Distribution and Assignment In developing the trip distribution for the site generated trips, information from Project Niagara was supplemented by Delcan s understanding of travel patterns within the NOTL and Niagara Region area. Based on the feasibility produced for Project Niagara, 20% of trips attracted by this venue are destination trips made because the event is present. The remaining 80% are captured trips from persons already visiting the Niagara Region and choosing to add this venue to their schedule. It is anticipated that a larger number of trips will be captured from NOTL and adjacent municipalities (i.e. Niagara Falls, Thorold, St. Catharines) than from the more remote municipalities. Based on this information it has be estimated that about 40% of all trips are captured from persons already visiting NOTL both in the old Town (25%) and elsewhere throughout the community (15%). This reflects the fact that the demographics of the expected Project Niagara patron are closely aligned with that of existing Town visitors. TN1370TNA00 23

28 Project Niagara Traffic Impact Study The remaining 60% will approach the venue from either the west or the south utilizing the Welland Ship Canal crossings (10%), Niagara Stone Road (30%), Concession 6 Road (10%) and the Niagara Parkway (10%). This distribution is for private automobile traffic, all shuttle and tour buses are assumed to utilize Niagara Stone Road and Mary Street to access Lakeshore Road. The primary access routes for traffic destined to the Project Niagara site include: Lakeshore Road from Welland Ship Canal crossings (west); Mary Street via Niagara Stone Road/Mississauga Street; Four Mile Creek Road via East West Line; and Four Mile Creek Road via Niagara Stone Road. The resulting site generated traffic during the weekday evening and Saturday midday peak hours are presented in Exhibit 4.1 and Exhibit 4.2, respectively. TN1370TNA00 24

29 SITE Niagara Stone Road Lakeshore Road East West Line Four Mile Creek Road Niven Road Garrison Village Drive Concession East West Line Niagara Stone Road N.T.S. PM PEAK HOUR SITE GENERATED TRIPS EXHIBIT 4.1

30 SITE Niagara Stone Road Lakeshore Road East West Line Four Mile Creek Road Niven Road Garrison Village Drive Concession East West Line Niagara Stone Road N.T.S. SATURDAY PEAK HOUR SITE GENERATED TRIPS EXHIBIT 4.2

31 Project Niagara Traffic Impact Study 5.0 FUTURE TOTAL TRAFFIC By the year 2012 and 2017, projected Total Traffic is estimated as the combination of growth in background traffic, and the projected traffic volumes from the Project Niagara development. The resulting 2012 and 2017 total traffic volumes are presented in the following exhibits: Exhibit 5.1 and Exhibit 5.2: 2012 Total Traffic Volumes for the weekday evening and Saturday midday peak hours, respectively. Exhibit 5.3 and Exhibit 5.4: 2017 Total Traffic Volumes for the weekday evening and Saturday midday peak hours, respectively. 5.1 Site Access Based on the roadway configuration and the preliminary site concept plan, a minimum of two access points should be provided to the site along Lakeshore Road. The access driveways should consist of two receiving lanes and one exit lane. This configuration would allow for lane reversal during the exiting of traffic at the end of an event. The location of these access points should be sufficiently separated from each other and adjacent roads to allow for proper traffic operations along Lakeshore Road. These assumptions have been utilized as part of the future total traffic analysis. 5.2 Total 2012 Traffic Analysis Synchro capacity analysis was completed for signalized and unsignalized intersections during the weekday evening and Saturday midday peak hours under future total 2012 traffic conditions for a 5000 attendance event. The analysis results are discussed below. TN1370TNA00 27

32 SITE Niagara Stone Road Lakeshore Road East West Line Four Mile Creek Road Niven Road Garrison Village Drive Concession East West Line Niagara Stone Road N.T.S. PM PEAK HOUR 2012 FUTURE TOTAL TRAFFIC VOLUMES EXHIBIT 5.1

33 SITE Niagara Stone Road Lakeshore Road East West Line Four Mile Creek Road Niven Road Garrison Village Drive Concession East West Line Niagara Stone Road N.T.S. SATURDAY PEAK HOUR 2012 FUTURE TOTAL TRAFFIC VOLUMES EXHIBIT 5.2

34 SITE Niagara Stone Road Lakeshore Road East West Line Four Mile Creek Road Niven Road Garrison Village Drive Concession East West Line Niagara Stone Road N.T.S. PM PEAK HOUR 2017 FUTURE TOTAL TRAFFIC VOLUMES EXHIBIT 5.3

35 SITE Niagara Stone Road Lakeshore Road East West Line Four Mile Creek Road Niven Road Garrison Village Drive Concession East West Line Niagara Stone Road N.T.S. SATURDAY PEAK HOUR 2017 FUTURE TOTAL TRAFFIC VOLUMES EXHIBIT 5.4

36 Project Niagara Traffic Impact Study Unsignalized Intersections The Synchro capacity analysis completed for unsignalized intersections during the weekday evening and Saturday midday peak hours under 2012 future total traffic conditions is summarized in Table 5.1. The Synchro output sheets for the 2012 total traffic analysis are provided in Appendix 3. Table 5.1 Unsignalized Operational Performance 2012 Total Traffic Conditions Unsignalized Intersections PM PEAK HOUR LOS if E or F Delay (s) V/C East West Line and Four Mile Creek Road RR 87 Lakeshore Road and East West Line RR 87 Lakeshore Road and Project Niagara Access 1 RR 87 Lakeshore Road and Project Niagara Access 2 RR 87 Lakeshore Road and Four Mile Creek Road RR 87 Lakeshore Road and Niven Road RR 87 Lakeshore Road and Garrison Village Drive RR 55 Niagara Stone Road and Niven Road SATURDAY PEAK HOUR East West Line and Four Mile Creek Road RR 87 Lakeshore Road and East West Line RR 87 Lakeshore Road and Project Niagara Access RR 87 Lakeshore Road and Project Niagara Access RR 87 Lakeshore Road and Four Mile Creek Road - - RR 87 Lakeshore Road and Niven Road RR 87 Lakeshore Road and Garrison Village Drive RR 55 Niagara Stone Road and Niven Road SBL=F RR 55 Niagara Stone Road and Concession 6 NBL=F NBT=E SBL =F ST =D The Synchro capacity analysis completed for all unsignalized intersections during the weekday evening and Saturday midday peak hours under 2012 total traffic conditions indicates that all intersections would be operating satisfactorily except for the Concession 6 and Niagara Stone Road intersection. This intersection has a number of movements operating at both a high level of delay and v/c ratios approaching capacity. It is recommended that traffic control improvements be implemented prior to The Region of Niagara TN1370TNA00 32

37 Project Niagara Traffic Impact Study is currently monitoring the intersection and is proposing to have traffic control improvements implemented as required. The gap seeking delay at the Niven Road intersection still exists, but as presented earlier, additional gaps in traffic will occur as a result of cycling of the Garrison Village Drive traffic signal, thereby providing more opportunities for side street traffic to complete left turn maneuvers Signalized Intersections Capacity analysis of the signalized intersections under 2012 total traffic conditions was conducted and the findings are presented in Table 5.2. The table also summarizes the operation of the intersection of Niagara Stone Road and Concession 6 as a signalized intersection. The Synchro output sheets for the future 2012 total traffic analysis are provided in Appendix 3 for the weekday evening and Saturday midday peak hours. Table 5.2 Signalized Operational Performance 2012 Total Traffic Conditions Signalized Intersection RR 87 Lakeshore Road/Mary Street and Niagara Stone Road RR 55 Niagara Stone Road and East West Line RR 55 Niagara Stone Road and Garrison Village Drive RR 55 Niagara Stone Road and Concession 6 RR 55 Niagara Stone Road and Four Mile Creek Road RR 87 Lakeshore Road/Mary Street and Niagara Stone Road RR 55 Niagara Stone Road and East West Line RR 55 Niagara Stone Road and Garrison Village Drive RR 55 Niagara Stone Road and Concession 6 RR 55 Niagara Stone Road and Four Mile Creek Road LOS Delay/ Veh (sec.) PM PEAK HOUR V/C Critical V/C (>=0.90) B B A A B SATURDAY PEAK HOUR B B A A C NBT=0.94 As presented in Table 5.2, all intersections are forecast to operate at a LOS of C or better during the weekday evening and Saturday midday peak hours of analysis. One movement, the northbound through on Niagara Stone Road at Four Mile Creek Road intersection is TN1370TNA00 33

38 Project Niagara Traffic Impact Study identified as exceeding the 0.9 v/c threshold. This only occurs during the Saturday peak hour, at which time the movement reaches a v/c ratio of Although the v/c is identified as critical there is still surplus capacity in this movement and the intersection. The overall intersection is forecast to operate at a LOS C. 5.3 Total 2017 Traffic Analysis Synchro capacity analysis was completed for signalized and unsignalized intersections during the weekday evening and Saturday midday peak hours under future total 2017 traffic conditions for a 5000 attendance event. The result of the traffic analysis is discussed below Unsignalized Intersections The Synchro capacity analysis completed for unsignalized intersections during the weekday evening and Saturday midday peak hours under 2017 future total traffic conditions is summarized in Table 5.3. The Synchro output sheets for the 2017 total traffic analysis are provided in Appendix 4. The Synchro capacity analysis completed for all unsignalized intersections during the weekday evening and Saturday midday peak hours under 2017 total traffic conditions indicates that the majority of intersections would be operating satisfactorily with no critical movements. The only exception continues to be the existing left turn from Niven Road to Niagara Stone Road, which services a very low volume. TN1370TNA00 34

39 Table 5.3 Unsignalized Operational Performance 2017 Total Traffic Conditions Project Niagara Traffic Impact Study Unsignalized Intersections LOS if E or F PM PEAK HOUR Delay (s) V/C East West Line and Four Mile Creek Road RR 87 Lakeshore Road and East West Line RR 87 Lakeshore Road and Project Niagara Access RR 87 Lakeshore Road and Project Niagara Access RR 87 Lakeshore Road and Four Mile Creek Road RR 87 Lakeshore Road and Niven Road RR 87 Lakeshore Road and Garrison Village Drive RR 55 Niagara Stone Road and Niven Road SATURDAY PEAK HOUR East West Line and Four Mile Creek Road RR 87 Lakeshore Road and East West Line RR 87 Lakeshore Road and Project Niagara Access RR 87 Lakeshore Road and Project Niagara Access RR 87 Lakeshore Road and Four Mile Creek Road RR 87 Lakeshore Road and Niven Road RR 87 Lakeshore Road and Garrison Village Drive RR 55 Niagara Stone Road and Niven Road SBL=F Signalized Intersections Capacity analysis of the three signalized intersections under 2017 total traffic conditions was conducted and the findings are presented in Table 5.4. The Synchro output sheets for the future 2017 total traffic analysis are provided in Appendix 4 for the weekday evening and Saturday midday peak hours. TN1370TNA00 35

40 Project Niagara Traffic Impact Study Table 5.4 Signalized Operational Performance 2017 Total Traffic Conditions Signalized Intersection RR 87 Lakeshore Road/Mary Street and Niagara Stone Road RR 55 Niagara Stone Road and East West Line RR 55 Niagara Stone Road and Garrison Village Drive RR 55 Niagara Stone Road and Concession 6 RR 55 Niagara Stone Road and Four Mile Creek Road RR 87 Lakeshore Road/Mary Street and Niagara Stone Road RR 55 Niagara Stone Road and East West Line RR 55 Niagara Stone Road and Garrison Village Drive RR 55 Niagara Stone Road and Concession 6 RR 55 Niagara Stone Road and Four Mile Creek Road LOS Delay/ Veh (sec.) PM PEAK HOUR V/C Critical V/C (>=0.90) B B A A B SATURDAY PEAK HOUR B B A A C WBTR=0.95 NBT=0.96 As presented in Table 5.4, all signalized intersections within the study area would operate satisfactorily under 2017 total traffic conditions with a LOS of C or better. There are two critical movements identified at the intersection of Niagara Stone Road at Four Mile Creek Road. Both movements still have surplus capacity, as does the intersection. Overall the intersection will continue to operate at a good level of service with moderate delay. A sensitivity analysis was completed for both a 7000 and 9000 person attendance event for the same area intersections under 2017 total traffic conditions. The only change in this analysis was the introduction of 43 or 86 more tour/shuttle bus trips to the roadway system, respectively. The addition of these additional vehicle trips did not highlight any new operational issues at any of the study area intersections. TN1370TNA00 36

41 Project Niagara Traffic Impact Study 5.4 Traffic Infiltration Given the location of both Niven Road and Garrison Village Drive there is a potential that some traffic wishing to bypass the arterial roads may consider using these roadways as a route to access or egress the Lakeshore Road area. The traffic analysis completed for the surrounding area intersections under 2017 future total traffic conditions indicated that there will be sufficient capacity to accommodate the proposed Project Niagara development, thereby the catalyst for such shortcutting behaviour should not be present. However, recognizing that drivers may still perceive these routes as more desirable, it is recommended that a monitoring program be commenced 6 months prior to the opening of the venue to establish base conditions and that the monitoring continues through the first season of operation. The monitoring could capture information such as volume, speed, amount of through traffic (non local) and increased on- street parking. Based on the findings, appropriate counter measures can be developed to address the specific issues. The countermeasures could include traffic calming techniques such as speed humps, curb extensions or more passive approaches such as increased policing or bylaw enforcement of possible parking restrictions. 5.5 Other Site Considerations In the next phase of the project, as the site plan is further refined, consultation with emergency services regarding their needs for access will be undertaken. These discussions will address not only Project Niagara but the surrounding area as well. Reflecting on the completed traffic analysis, the intersections in the immediate surrounding area of the venue will continue to operate at good levels of service with moderate delay and should not be a detriment to the ability of emergency services to respond within the immediate study area. Still to be developed are the traffic management strategies that involve the satellite parking lots and the exiting of traffic from the venue at the end of an event. These items will be developed in subsequent studies as part of the next phase of the project. TN1370TNA00 37

42 Project Niagara Traffic Impact Study Some cursory consideration has been given to the following two items: Satellite Parking The shuttle service could explore integration with the Town s existing transit system to increase the mobility of visitors without their vehicles. Partnerships with other businesses (i.e. wineries, hotels, etc.) already providing patron shuttle services. Identify existing underutilized paved areas during the summer season such as Niagara College and Niagara District High School. Develop new areas only as a last resort. Traffic Management Make use of paid duty officers to control traffic. Temporarily barricade adjacent residential streets during the egress of event vehicles. Split exiting traffic by allowing traffic at each of the two accesses to only go opposite ways: east to Niagara Stone Road and west to East West Line. Provide way finding signage from the various municipal gateways to the venue. Consider allowing customers to purchase their parking vouchers online to better direct them to the appropriate location when they arrive. Provide information to patrons at their home through marketing campaigns and website information related to access routes, parking locations and partnerships. Explore linkages between modes: Shuttle lots within cycling and path linkages/amenities Shuttle lots with connections to other transit systems operating in NOTL like St. Catharines and Niagara Falls Transit at Niagara College. Use of existing and new modes/services of transportation, such as the District Airport, GO Bus, GO Train, marine connections and inter/intra municipal transit. TN1370TNA00 38

43 Project Niagara Traffic Impact Study 6.0 CONCLUSIONS The traffic impact of the proposed Project Niagara development was analyzed for the weekday evening and Saturday midday peak hour conditions. The following conclusions were derived from the completed roadway and intersection operational analysis, which included the review of existing, future background 2012 and future total (2012 and 2017) travel demand scenarios: Project Niagara s feasibility study anticipates 50 events each season with varying attendance. It is estimated that 75% of all events will have an attendance of 5000 person or less and 90% of all events will have an attendance of 7000 or less and the balance is in the range of The existing roadway network can accommodate the vehicular traffic demand during the weekday evening and Saturday midday peak hours generated by these various attendance scenarios. The existing and 2012 background traffic scenarios result in satisfactory traffic operation of study area intersections with no required geometric improvements or traffic control improvements. The primary access routes for the Project Niagara site include: o Lakeshore Road from Welland Ship Canal crossings (west); o Mary Street via Niagara Stone Road/Mississauga Street; o East West Line via Four Mile Creek Road; and o Four Mile Creek Road via Niagara Stone Road. We recommend that the number of on site parking spaces should be modified to 1500 based on the available capacity of adjacent roadways to accommodate forecast travel demands. The site will generate a total of 1000 autos and 41 tour/shuttle buses for a 5000 person event during the peak hour. For all other events the additional attendance will be accommodated by tour and shuttle buses. For each additional 1000 persons in attendance, it is estimate that an additional 22 tour/shuttle buses will be required in the peak hour. While there may be some minor traffic spillover into nearby neighbourhoods, this can be properly managed through appropriate monitoring and discouragements in order to eliminate or minimize any negative effect. TN1370TNA00 39

44 Project Niagara Traffic Impact Study The intersection of Niagara Stone Road and Concession 6 will require traffic control improvements by These improvements are currently included within the Region of Niagara s capital forecasts for traffic operations and traffic control improvements. A future traffic management plan is required and should be prepared in consultation with emergency services, The Town of NOTL and the Region of Niagara as part of the next phase of the project. A future traffic study to position satellite or Park and Ride parking facilities needs to be undertaken. Park and Ride lots and shuttle services are an opportunity to explore community partnerships (with Niagara area businesses), to minimize the need for newly paved areas and to enhance the overall mobility of visitors to the Niagara Region in general and Niagara-On-The Lake in particular. Linkages between these parking locations, transit, cycling and trails should be encouraged. TN1370TNA00 40

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