MONTHLY CHART BOOK OCTOBER 2018
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1 MONTHLY CHART BOOK OCTOBER 2018 Performance table: SA REITs, Equities and Bonds... 2 Total return indexes... 3 SA REITs Index (price only)... 4 Comparative Total Return Investment Correlation... 5 SA REITs quarterly return components... 6 Monthly performance month performance... 8 Year-to-date performance month performance year performance year performance year performance SA REIT yields vs Long Bond yields Yield differential and average yield differential Distribution growth Market capitalisation Market capitalisation (publicly traded SA REITs) Monthly value of SA REIT units traded... 19
2 PERFORMANCE Period SA REITs 1 All Share 2 All Bond Q1 15.5% 10.4% 1.6% Q2 0.6% 4.3% -1.7% Q3 9.1% 6.7% 3.3% Q4-0.3% -3.0% 0.9% Year 26.5% 19.2% 4.3% 2008 Q1-11.0% 2.9% -1.9% Q2-19.4% 3.4% -4.9% Q3 23.2% -20.6% 12.6% Q4 7.9% -9.2% 11.3% Year -4.6% -23.2% 17.0% 2009 Q1-1.1% -4.2% -5.1% Q2-0.8% 8.6% 0.3% Q3 12.9% 13.9% 3.0% Q4 4.2% 11.4% 1.1% Year 15.4% 32.1% -1.0% 2010 Q1 9.8% 4.5% 4.4% Q2 1.1% -8.2% 1.1% Q3 13.5% 13.3% 8.0% Q4 3.2% 9.5% 0.7% Year 29.9% 19.0% 15.0% 2011 Q1-2.0% 1.1% -1.6% Q2 4.9% -0.6% 3.9% Q3 2.3% -5.8% 2.8% Q4 3.3% 8.4% 3.5% Year 8.6% 2.6% 8.8% 2012 Q1 8.1% 6.0% 2.4% Q2 10.1% 1.0% 5.2% Q3 11.3% 7.3% 5.0% Q4 2.9% 10.3% 2.6% Year 36.3% 26.7% 16.0% 2013 Q1 8.5% 2.5% 0.9% Q2-0.2% -0.2% -2.3% Q3-2.1% 12.5% 1.9% Q4 1.0% 5.5% 0.1% Year 7.2% 21.4% 0.6% 2014 Q1 1.5% 4.3% 0.9% Q2 5.1% 7.2% 2.5% Q3 6.3% -2.1% 2.2% Q4 12.6% 1.4% 4.2% Year 27.7% 10.9% 10.1% 2015 Q1 14.6% 5.8% 3.0% Q2-6.7% -0.2% -1.4% Q3 4.6% -2.1% 1.1% Q4-5.9% 1.7% -6.4% Year 5.2% 5.1% -3.9% 2016 Q1 10.3% 3.9% 6.6% Q2 1.5% 0.4% 4.4% Q3 0.4% 0.5% 3.4% Q4 2.1% -2.1% 0.3% Year 14.7% 2.6% 15.4% 2017 Q1 3.8% 3.8% 2.5% Q2-1.3% -0.4% 1.5% Q3 3.8% 8.9% 3.7% Q4 6.7% 7.4% 2.2% Year 13.5% 21.0% 10.2% 2018 January -6.1% 0.1% 1.9% February -7.5% -2.0% 3.9% March -1.5% -4.2% 2.0% April 6.2% 5.4% -0.7% May -5.3% -3.5% -2.0% June -3.5% 2.8% -1.2% July -0.3% -0.2% 2.4% August 0.5% 2.3% -1.9% September -2.3% -4.2% 0.2% October -1.8% -5.8% -1.7% Year-to-date -20.2% -9.4% 3.1% 1) Source = Bridge Fund Managers (index excludes property developers and non-sa REITs) 2) Source = IRESS Page 2 of 19
3 Total return indexes 3,600 3,400 3,200 3,000 2,800 2,600 2,400 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Source: IRESS & Bridge Fund Managers SA REITs All Share All Bond Page 3 of 19
4 1,200 SA REIT Index (price only) 1, Source: IRESS & Bridge Fund Managers Page 4 of 19
5 Comparative Total Return Investment Correlation SA REITs FTSE/JSE: All Share All Bond FTSE/JSE: Financials FTSE/JSE: Industrials FTSE/JSE: Top 40 FTSE/JSE: Small Cap Data period for upper right : October October 2018 SA REITs FTSE/JSE: All Share All Bond FTSE/JSE: Financials FTSE/JSE: Industrials FTSE/JSE: Top FTSE/JSE: Small Cap Data period for lower left : October October 2018 Page 5 of 19
6 30.00% SA REITs - quarterly return components 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% -5.00% % % % % Income Price appreciation Page 6 of 19
7 Monthly performance - October % -7.1% -7.1% -5.5% -4.8% -4.6% -4.3% -3.8% -4.0% -2.6% -2.5% -3.1% -2.2% -1.3% -1.4% -0.8% -1.0% -0.1% -0.2% 0.8% 0.0% 2.1% 1.5% 0.6% 2.9% 3.5% 5.0% 4.7% 5.8% Accelerate Arrowhead Delta Prop Dipula A Dipula B Emira Equites Fairvest Fortress A Fortress B Gemgrow A Gemgrow B Growthpoint Hospitality Hyprop Indluplace Investec Prop Liberty2D Octodec Rebosis Redefine Resilient SA Corporate Safari Spear Stor-Age Texton Tower Vukile -12.0% -10.0% -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% Page 7 of 19
8 3 month performance to 31 October % -20.0% -17.0% -15.0% -13.6% -10.2% -8.6% -9.4% -8.4% -9.8% -6.4% -0.8% -0.8% -0.2% -0.1% -4.0% -2.5% -1.7% 0.1% 1.5% 1.1% 0.5% 4.2% 4.3% 3.9% 9.2% 13.9% 13.6% 15.7% Accelerate Arrowhead Delta Prop Dipula A Dipula B Emira Equites Fairvest Fortress A Fortress B Gemgrow A Gemgrow B Growthpoint Hospitality Hyprop Indluplace Investec Prop Liberty2D Octodec Rebosis Redefine Resilient SA Corporate Safari Spear Stor-Age Texton Tower Vukile -25.0% -20.0% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% Page 8 of 19
9 Year-to-date performance to 31 October % -54.4% -32.1% -18.5% -17.0% -17.1% -17.3% -14.4% -12.4% -11.4% -11.0% -8.7% -6.4% -6.5% -5.7% -6.5% -0.4% -0.9% -0.6% 1.7% 0.5% 2.0% 2.3% 2.7% 6.7% 7.4% 7.7% 17.6% 21.5% Accelerate Arrowhead Delta Prop Dipula A Dipula B Emira Equites Fairvest Fortress A Fortress B Gemgrow A Gemgrow B Growthpoint Hospitality Hyprop Indluplace Investec Prop Liberty2D Octodec Rebosis Redefine Resilient SA Corporate Safari Spear Stor-Age Texton Tower Vukile -70.0% -60.0% -50.0% -40.0% -30.0% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% Page 9 of 19
10 12 month performance to 31 October % -51.0% -32.9% -16.9% -25.1% -16.2% -23.3% -22.0% -21.0% -8.5% -9.9% -8.3% -5.8% -5.1% -4.1% -1.3% 1.3% 1.9% 0.0% 2.2% 2.7% 14.7% 13.5% 8.7% 10.2% 6.6% 11.5% 12.3% 24.8% Accelerate Arrowhead Delta Prop Dipula A Dipula B Emira Equites Fairvest Fortress A Fortress B Gemgrow A Gemgrow B Growthpoint Hospitality Hyprop Indluplace Investec Prop Liberty2D Octodec Rebosis Redefine Resilient SA Corporate Safari Spear Stor-Age Texton Tower Vukile -70.0% -60.0% -50.0% -40.0% -30.0% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% Page 10 of 19
11 3 year annualised performance to 31 October % -14.9% -10.0% -10.1% -10.9% -5.5% -2.8% -4.7% -5.2% -3.5% -0.1% 0.0% -0.3% 2.3% 2.9% 3.8% 3.9% 1.1% 2.0% 6.5% 8.0% 10.6% 11.9% 11.3% 15.9% 24.0% Accelerate Arrowhead Delta Prop Dipula A Dipula B Emira Equites Fairvest Fortress A Fortress B Gemgrow A Gemgrow B Growthpoint Hospitality Hyprop Indluplace Investec Prop Octodec Rebosis Redefine Resilient SA Corporate Safari Texton Tower Vukile -25.0% -20.0% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% Page 11 of 19
12 5 year annualised performance 31 October % -3.9% -2.7% 3.7% 2.9% 9.3% 8.1% 9.6% 11.2% 9.0% 8.2% 4.9% 10.1% 7.5% 6.1% 6.6% 8.4% 8.5% 2.5% 12.3% 15.8% 18.4% Arrowhead Delta Prop Dipula A Dipula B Emira Fairvest Fortress A Fortress B Gemgrow A Gemgrow B Growthpoint Hospitality Hyprop Investec Prop Octodec Rebosis Redefine Resilient SA Corporate Texton Tower Vukile -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% Page 12 of 19
13 10 year annualised performance to 31 October % Emira 18.1% Fairvest 13.5% Growthpoint -15.8% Hospitality 16.8% Hyprop 13.0% Octodec 14.3% Redefine 18.9% Resilient 15.6% SA Corporate 18.1% Vukile -20.0% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% Page 13 of 19
14 Percentage SA REIT Yields versus Bond Yields Source: IRESS & Bridge Fund Managers SA Listed Property Long bond Page 14 of 19
15 Basis Points 700 Yield Differential SA REIT Yield minus Long Bond Yield AVERAGE = -16 bps Source: IRESS & Bridge Fund Managers Page 15 of 19
16 25.00% SA REITs Distribution Growth - Rolling 12 months % 19.5% 17.0% 20.1% 18.5% 17.6% 18.0% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 3.6% 5.3% 8.0% 7.0% 7.2%7.2% 9.2% 6.2% 7.9% 10.6% 9.3% 14.4% 14.5% 14.7% 13.7% 12.2% 12.9% 11.6% 9.4% 7.4% 6.9% 7.7% 5.9% 8.1%7.5% 6.8% 6.3% 6.0% 5.8% 6.3% 6.6% 5.0% 5.3% 4.8% 6.3% 8.3% 15.6% 13.0% 11.2% 12.2% 12.2% 11.1% 10.4% 9.5% 12.9% 13.5% 9.5% 9.3% 7.1% 7.0% 5.6% 2.0% 1.3% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.00% -0.2% -1.2% -1.2% -5.00% Weighted by equity market capitalisation at the end of the period to limit distortions created by significant equity issuance by individual companies Page 16 of 19
17 R 'millions 450,000 Market Capitalisation 400, , , , , , ,000 50, Page 17 of 19
18 R 'millions 80,000 Market Capitalisation - Publicly Traded SA REITs October ,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Page 18 of 19
19 R 'millions Monthly value of SA REIT units traded 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, Source: IRESS and Bridge Fund Managers Page 19 of 19
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