CPB Memo. Date: 25 November 2016 Subject: CPB World Trade Monitor September 2016
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1 CPB Memo Date: 25 November 2016 Subject: CPB World Trade Monitor September 2016 CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis Van Stolkweg 14 Postbus GM Den Haag T I Contact Jos Ebregt, Nico van Leeuwen, Katarzyna Grabska, Iris van Tilburg Developments in global international trade and global industrial production September 2016: world trade down 0.4% month on month, following a 1.7% increase in August. September 2016: world trade up 0.5% in 2016Q3, following a 0.7% decline in 2016Q2. September 2016: world industrial production down 0.2% month on month, following a 0.8% increase in August. September 2016: world industrial production up 0.6% in 2016Q3, following a 0.4% rise in 2016Q2. World trade volume 1 According to the preliminary data, the volume of world trade fell 0.4% in September from the preceding month, following a 1.7% rise in August (initial estimate: 1.5%). Regional outcomes were mixed. Emerging economies recorded positive import volume growth on account of relatively strong growth in Latin America. Export volume decreased however. Advanced economies import and export volume both declined. Because of the volatility of monthly trade figures, momentum is the preferred measure of trade growth. 2 Trade momentum was 0.5% in September (non-annualised), down from 0.6% in August number (initial estimate: 0.3%). At the import side there were marked decelerations in the United States and Japan. At the export side, momentum strengthened in advanced economies, whereas it weakened in emerging economies. World industrial production According to preliminary data, world industrial production declined 0.2% in September, following a 0.8% increase in August (initial estimate: 0.4%). Production contracted in advanced economies, while it stagnated in emerging economies. Global production momentum was 0.6% in September, down from 0.8% in August (initial estimate: 0.7%). Momentum decreased in all regions except for Japan and the Other advanced economies. The next release of the CPB World Trade Monitor is scheduled tentatively for 22 December The WTM database in Excel format is available at 1 The method used for compiling Chinese trade volumes has changed. The ensuing revisions at w orld level are limited. 2 Momentum is the change in the three months average up to the report month relative to the average of the preceding three months. 1
2 2
3 WORLD MERCHANDISE TRADE VOLUME, CHART 1 WORLD MERCHANDISE TRADE VOLUME, CHART 2 WORLD MERCHANDISE TRADE VOLUME, CHART 3 3
4 WORLD MERCHANDISE TRADE (percentage changes) Volumes (s.a.) year on year quarter on quarter momentum (a) month on month q1 2016q2 2016q3 2016m m m m m09 World trade 2,2 2,7 2,0 0,1-0,7 0,5 0,6 0,5-1,2 1,7-0,4 World imports 2,0 2,6 1,9-0,5-0,8 0,7 0,9 0,7-1,5 2,1-0,3 Advanced Economies 0,0 3,2 3,6 0,9-0,7 0,5 0,8 0,5-0,8 1,3-0,8 United States 0,7 5,1 6,2 0,2-0,7 0,4 2,2 0,4-1,1 0,9-1,1 Japan 1,6 2,2 0,2 1,0-1,4 0,5 1,3 0,5-1,2-0,7 0,9 Euro Area -0,4 2,7 3,5 1,1-1,7 0,4 0,0 0,4 0,5 1,1-1,6 Other advanced economies -0,6 2,7 2,5 1,3 1,6 0,8 0,7 0,8-2,7 3,1 0,5 Emerging economies 4,8 1,8-0,5-2,5-1,0 1,1 1,1 1,1-2,6 3,3 0,6 Asia 5,4 3,2-0,2-2,0 0,0 1,0 1,4 1,0-2,0 2,4-0,1 Central and Eastern Europe -1,8-10,9-23,2 7,2-0,5 0,7 0,0 0,7-3,2 6,4-1,7 Latin America 5,7 3,1-1,4-2,2-1,8 1,5-0,6 1,5-8,1 9,3 5,5 Africa and Middle East 4,7 0,0 10,4-8,7-5,8 0,7 1,1 0,7 0,1 0,5-0,3 World exports 2,4 2,7 2,1 0,6-0,7 0,2 0,3 0,2-0,8 1,4-0,6 Advanced Economies 1,6 2,1 1,9 0,0-0,6 0,6 0,1 0,6-0,1 1,3-0,1 United States 2,6 3,2-1,1-0,8 0,4 3,6 2,2 3,6 2,9 1,6 0,2 Japan -1,4 1,7 2,7-0,1 1,1 0,7 2,0 0,7-3,2 1,3 0,9 Euro Area 0,6 1,9 2,2 0,8-0,5 0,2-0,5 0,2-0,3 1,4-0,1 Other advanced economies 4,6 1,9 3,2-1,1-2,2-0,7-0,8-0,7-0,7 0,7-0,9 Emerging economies 3,4 3,4 2,3 1,4-0,8-0,2 0,4-0,2-1,6 1,5-1,2 Asia 4,8 4,2 1,2 1,7-0,9-1,0 0,1-1,0-1,9 1,5-2,6 Central and Eastern Europe 0,6-0,5 0,1-1,5 0,7 0,5 0,7 0,5-0,8 0,5 0,7 Latin America 2,3 4,6 8,3 3,3-4,0 0,9-1,1 0,9-2,7 4,3 2,6 Africa and Middle East -0,6 1,1 3,1-0,6 2,5 2,1 3,3 2,1 0,6-0,4 0,7 Prices / unit values in USD (s.a.) World trade -0,6-1,6-13,4-3,0 2,8-0,2 0,9-0,2-1,1 0,9-0,4 World imports -1,0-1,4-13,2-2,7 2,9-0,4 0,8-0,4-1,2 1,1-0,5 Advanced Economies -0,7-1,1-14,0-2,8 2,6-0,7 0,3-0,7-1,7 1,1 0,0 United States -1,1-1,1-10,2-2,5 1,8 0,8 1,7 0,8 0,1-0,2 0,2 Japan -7,3-4,7-20,3-3,2 2,8 3,5 3,7 3,5 1,3 2,3-0,8 Euro Area 1,9-1,5-17,3-1,8 3,0-0,3 0,7-0,3-1,8 1,6 0,2 Other advanced economies -2,5 0,9-9,3-5,1 2,4-4,1-2,7-4,1-4,2 1,3-0,4 Emerging economies -1,7-1,8-12,0-2,4 3,4 0,0 1,4 0,0-0,6 1,0-1,2 Asia -2,4-2,4-12,9-3,8 3,8 0,0 1,5 0,0-1,0 1,5-1,0 Central and Eastern Europe 0,9-3,0-14,6 12,2-6,3 2,4-0,8 2,4-4,0 12,1-2,6 Latin America -1,9-3,0-9,1-1,3 1,4-0,4 2,3-0,4 3,4-5,2-2,9 Africa and Middle East 0,9 2,5-11,0 0,6 7,8-0,1 0,5-0,1-1,6 1,8-0,2 World exports -0,1-1,7-13,6-3,3 2,6 0,0 0,9 0,0-1,0 0,7-0,2 Advanced Economies 0,4-0,9-12,9-2,0 2,6-0,4 0,6-0,4-1,4 1,3-0,6 United States -0,4-0,5-6,3-2,2 1,3 0,6 1,5 0,6 0,2-0,8 0,3 Japan -9,1-5,2-11,9 0,6 2,8 4,0 3,9 4,0 3,0 1,6-1,1 Euro Area 3,0-0,1-15,2-0,9 2,7-0,6 0,4-0,6-1,9 1,9-0,9 Other advanced economies -1,4-1,6-12,7-5,1 3,2-2,5-1,0-2,5-3,4 1,4-0,3 Emerging economies -0,8-2,6-14,5-4,9 2,7 0,4 1,4 0,4-0,5-0,1 0,3 Asia -0,1-0,8-6,8-4,0 1,6 0,2 0,4 0,2-0,1 0,0 0,4 Central and Eastern Europe -3,5-5,4-32,0-9,9 1,4 4,1 4,9 4,1-3,4 1,3 5,9 Latin America -2,0-5,7-18,5-4,6 4,6 0,9 2,2 0,9 2,7-2,7-0,4 Africa and Middle East -0,7-6,8-37,8-11,4 12,8 1,8 8,4 1,8-4,3 1,3-0,7 World prices / unit values in USD Fuels (HWWI) 1,5-6,8-44,1-20,3 28,9 3,6 13,6 3,6-4,9 0,9 0,8 Primary commodities ex. fuels (HWWI) -6,6-9,2-22,8-1,2 10,2 1,3 3,5 1,3 0,7-0,1-1,3 (a) Average of the three months up to the report month over average of the preceding three months. 4
5 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION VOLUME, CHART 1 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION VOLUME, CHART 2 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION VOLUME, CHART 3 5
6 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION VOLUME (percentage changes) year on year quarter on quarter momentum (a) month on month q1 2016q2 2016q3 2016m m m m m09 World (b) 2,2 3,1 1,8 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 0,6-0,3 0,8-0,2 Advanced Economies 0,5 2,2 0,8 0,2-0,2 0,3 0,2 0,3-0,3 1,0-0,5 United States 1,9 2,9 0,3-0,4-0,2 0,5 0,8 0,5 0,4-0,1-0,3 Japan -0,6 1,9-1,3-1,0 0,1 1,2 0,6 1,2-0,8 1,9 0,6 Euro Area -0,7 0,9 2,0 0,8-0,2 0,3 0,5 0,3-0,7 1,9-0,9 Other advanced economies 0,7 3,0 1,4 1,1-0,5-0,7-1,0-0,7-0,4 1,0-0,9 Emerging economies 4,0 4,0 2,7 0,3 1,1 0,9 1,4 0,9-0,3 0,5 0,0 Asia 7,2 6,4 4,7 0,8 1,6 1,1 1,7 1,1-0,2 0,6 0,0 Central and Eastern Europe 0,1 0,8-3,7-0,1-0,2-0,7-0,4-0,7-0,8-0,1-0,2 Latin America 0,8-0,6-2,4-1,2-0,6-0,8-0,4-0,8-1,1-0,1 0,1 Africa and Middle East -2,6 1,0 1,9-0,4 0,7 1,8 2,1 1,8 0,2 0,9 0,0 (a) Average of the three months up to the report month over average of the preceding three months. (b) Country data are weighted with shares in world production. Regional aggregates computed with shares in world imports are available in the xlsx file at the CPB website. 6
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