MONTHLY CHART BOOK MARCH 2016
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1 MONTHLY CHART BOOK MARCH 2016 Performance table: SA REITs, Equities and Bonds... 2 Total return indexes... 3 SA REITs Index (price only)... 4 Comparative Total Return Investment Correlation... 5 SA REITs quarterly return components... 6 Monthly performance month performance... 8 Year-to-date performance month performance year performance year performance year performance SA REIT yields vs Long Bond yields Yield differential and average yield differential Distribution growth Market capitalisation Market capitalisation (publicly traded SA REITs) Monthly value of SA REIT units traded... 19
2 PERFORMANCE Period SA REITs 1 All Share 2 All Bond Q1 21.5% 13.3% 1.5% Q2-18.1% 4.9% -3.6% Q3 9.4% 6.3% 2.1% Q4 19.0% 11.8% 5.5% Year 29.5% 41.2% 5.5% 2007 Q1 15.5% 10.4% 1.6% Q2 0.6% 4.3% -1.7% Q3 9.1% 6.7% 3.3% Q4-0.3% -3.0% 0.9% Year 26.5% 19.2% 4.3% 2008 Q1-11.0% 2.9% -1.9% Q2-19.4% 3.4% -4.9% Q3 23.2% -20.6% 12.6% Q4 7.9% -9.2% 11.3% Year -4.6% -23.2% 17.0% 2009 Q1-1.1% -4.2% -5.1% Q2-0.8% 8.6% 0.3% Q3 12.9% 13.9% 3.0% Q4 4.2% 11.4% 1.1% Year 15.4% 32.1% -1.0% 2010 Q1 9.8% 4.5% 4.4% Q2 1.1% -8.2% 1.1% Q3 13.5% 13.3% 8.0% Q4 3.2% 9.5% 0.7% Year 29.9% 19.0% 15.0% 2011 Q1-2.0% 1.1% -1.6% Q2 4.9% -0.6% 3.9% Q3 2.3% -5.8% 2.8% Q4 3.3% 8.4% 3.5% Year 8.6% 2.6% 8.8% 2012 Q1 8.1% 6.0% 2.4% Q2 10.1% 1.0% 5.2% Q3 11.3% 7.3% 5.0% Q4 2.9% 10.3% 2.6% Year 36.3% 26.7% 16.0% 2013 Q1 8.5% 2.5% 0.9% Q2-0.2% -0.2% -2.3% Q3-2.1% 12.5% 1.9% Q4 1.0% 5.5% 0.1% Year 7.2% 21.4% 0.6% 2014 Q1 1.4% 4.3% 0.9% Q2 5.0% 7.2% 2.5% Q3 6.3% -2.1% 2.2% Q4 12.5% 1.4% 4.2% Year 27.4% 10.9% 10.1% 2015 Q1 14.6% 5.8% 3.0% Q2-6.8% -0.2% -1.4% Q3 4.5% -2.1% 1.1% Q4-6.0% 1.7% -6.4% Year 5.0% 5.1% -3.9% 2016 January -2.8% -3.0% 4.6% February 3.7% 0.6% -0.7% March 9.5% 6.4% 2.6% Year-to-date 10.3% 3.9% 6.6% 1) Source = Grindrod Asset Management (index excludes property developers like Attacq and non-sa REITs like NEPI) 2) Source = I-Net Bridge Page 2 of 19
3 3,000 Total return indexes 2,800 2,600 2,400 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Source: I-Net Bridge & Grindrod Asset Management SA REITs All Share All Bond Page 3 of 19
4 1,200 SA REIT Index (price only) 1, Source: I-Net Bridge & Grindrod Asset Management Page 4 of 19
5 Comparative Total Return Investment Correlation SA REITs FTSE/JSE: All Share All Bond FTSE/JSE: Financials FTSE/JSE: Industrials FTSE/JSE: Top 40 FTSE/JSE: Small Cap Data period for upper right : March March 2016 SA REITs FTSE/JSE: All Share All Bond FTSE/JSE: Financials FTSE/JSE: Industrials FTSE/JSE: Top FTSE/JSE: Small Cap Data period for lower left : March March 2016 Source: Grindrod Asset Management Page 5 of 19
6 30.00% SA REITs - quarterly return components 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% -5.00% % % % % Source: Grindrod Asset Management Income Price appreciation Page 6 of 19
7 -8.5% -4.0% -2.7% -1.0% -0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.7% 2.6% 2.3% 4.0% 3.6% 5.3% 5.8% 5.8% 6.8% 7.6% 8.5% 9.2% 10.2% 9.6% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% Source: Grindrod Asset Management Monthly performance - March % 7.8% 11.1% 11.9% 16.0% 15.6% 16.4% Accelerate Arrowhead Ascension A Delta Prop Dipula A Dipula B Emira Equites Fairvest Fortress A Fortress B Growthpoint Hospitality A Hospitality B Hyprop Indluplace Investec Prop Octodec Rebosis Redefine Resilient SA Corporate Safari Stor-Age Sycom Synergy A Synergy B Texton Tower Vukile Page 7 of 19
8 -14.1% -10.0% -9.1% -7.0% -2.6% -2.9% -2.1% -2.0% -3.6% -1.4% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 1.2% 0.6% 3.4% 3.9% 1.9% 4.8% 11.2% 9.6% 11.5% 8.8% 9.2% 9.6% 17.9% 16.7% -20.0% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% Source: Grindrod Asset Management 3 month performance to 31 March % 23.5% Accelerate Arrowhead Ascension A Delta Prop Dipula A Dipula B Emira Equites Fairvest Fortress A Fortress B Growthpoint Hospitality A Hospitality B Hyprop Indluplace Investec Prop Octodec Rebosis Redefine Resilient SA Corporate Safari Stor-Age Sycom Synergy A Synergy B Texton Tower Vukile Page 8 of 19
9 -14.1% -10.0% -9.1% -7.0% -2.6% -2.9% -2.1% -2.0% -3.6% -1.4% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 1.2% 0.6% 3.4% 3.9% 1.9% 4.8% 11.2% 9.6% 11.5% 8.8% 9.2% 9.6% 17.9% 16.7% -20.0% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% Source: Grindrod Asset Management Year-to-date performance to 31 March % 23.5% Accelerate Arrowhead Ascension A Delta Prop Dipula A Dipula B Emira Equites Fairvest Fortress A Fortress B Growthpoint Hospitality A Hospitality B Hyprop Indluplace Investec Prop Octodec Rebosis Redefine Resilient SA Corporate Safari Stor-Age Sycom Synergy A Synergy B Texton Tower Vukile Page 9 of 19
10 12 month performance to 31 March % -17.5% -20.3% -18.1% -18.1% -13.9% -18.7% -7.9% -7.8% -8.2% -3.2% -1.2% -7.0% -1.3% -4.7% -7.0% -5.5% -3.8% -0.7% 4.7% 9.0% 4.6% 3.9% 6.9% 3.5% 18.1% 28.3% 35.2% Accelerate Arrowhead Ascension A Delta Prop Dipula A Dipula B Emira Equites Fairvest Fortress A Fortress B Growthpoint Hospitality A Hospitality B Hyprop Investec Prop Octodec Rebosis Redefine Resilient SA Corporate Safari Sycom Synergy A Synergy B Texton Tower Vukile -40.0% -30.0% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% Source: Grindrod Asset Management Page 10 of 19
11 3 year annualised performance to 31 March % -4.1% 12.4% 3.0% 1.5% 6.2% 1.8% 10.1% 12.2% 10.4% 3.5% 3.9% 13.8% 4.1% 14.4% 12.4% 6.3% 10.0% 7.2% 1.0% 23.5% 41.9% 71.3% Arrowhead Ascension A Delta Prop Dipula A Dipula B Emira Fairvest Fortress A Fortress B Growthpoint Hospitality A Hospitality B Hyprop Investec Prop Octodec Rebosis Redefine Resilient SA Corporate Sycom Synergy A Synergy B Texton -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% Source: Grindrod Asset Management (returns are annualised) Page 11 of 19
12 5 year annualised performance to March % Emira 16.5% Fairvest 16.2% Fortress A 71.4% Fortress B 14.4% Growthpoint 5.3% Hospitality A -12.8% Hospitality B 23.9% Hyprop 14.0% Octodec 18.9% Redefine 42.3% Resilient 17.8% SA Corporate -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% Source: Grindrod Asset Management (returns are annualised) Page 12 of 19
13 10 year annualised performance to 31 March % Emira 21.3% Fairvest 13.9% Growthpoint 7.3% Hospitality A -7.0% Hospitality B 19.5% Hyprop 16.2% Octodec 14.8% Redefine 29.2% Resilient 11.8% SA Corporate 11.6% Sycom 14.9% Vukile -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% Source: Grindrod Asset Management (returns are annualised) Page 13 of 19
14 Percentage SA REIT Yields versus Bond Yields Source: I-Net Bridge & Grindrod Asset Management SA Listed Property Long bond Page 14 of 19
15 Basis Points 700 Yield Differential SA REIT Yield minus Long Bond Yield AVERAGE = 1bp Source: I-Net Bridge & Grindrod Asset Management Page 15 of 19
16 25.00% SA REITs Distribution Growth - Rolling 12 months % 19.5% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 3.6% 5.3% 8.0% 7.0% 7.2%7.2% 9.2% 6.2% 7.9% 10.6% 9.3% 13.7% 14.4% 14.5% 14.7% 12.2% 17.0% 12.9% 11.6% 9.4% 8.1%7.5% 7.4% 7.7% 6.8% 6.9% 6.3% 5.9% 6.0% 5.8% 6.3% 6.6% 5.0% 5.3% 4.8% 6.3% 8.3% 10.4% 9.5% 11.2% 11.1% 13.0% 12.2% 12.2% 15.6% 10.9% 0.00% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1% 1.3% 0.9% -0.2% -1.2% -1.2% -5.00% Source: Grindrod Asset Management 1. Weighted by equity market capitalisation at the end of the period to limit distortions created by significant equity issuance by individual companies Page 16 of 19
17 R 'millions 400,000 Market Capitalisation 350, , , , , ,000 50, Source: Grindrod Asset Management Page 17 of 19
18 R 'millions 80,000 Market Capitalisation - Publicly Traded SA REITs March ,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Source: Grindrod Asset Management Page 18 of 19
19 R 'millions Monthly value of SA REIT units traded 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, Source: I-Net Bridge and Grindrod Asset Management Page 19 of 19
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