Climate protection and energy efficiency in Poland: the impact of White Certificates

Transcription

1 SPOŁECZNA RADA NARODOWEGO PROGRAMU REDUKCJI EMISJI Climate protection and energy efficiency in Poland: the impact of White Certificates Prof. Krzysztof Żmijewski Secretary General Public Board of the National Programme for Emissions Reduction Workshop on White Certificates Brussels

2 New Marshall Plan Marshall Plan 13,5 billions $ billions ,5 billions per year Modernisation and Emissions Reduction Plan billions 13,5 16 billions 2/25

3 Program s dimension billions sector Electroenergetics Gas Heating and buildings Transport Total by ,5 per year 16 per year anually 3/25

4 Energy savings targets National energy saving targets: 2% by % by 2016 (Directive 2006/32/EC) The ambitious target of EU s energy consumption reduction by 20% in relation to 2020 Support mechanisms: Energy efficiency certificates + Voluntary commitments Other mechanisms + 4/25

5 White certificates Three dimensions Value-related foundation Redemption obligation Substitution fee Financial penalty Price ceiling Liquidityrelated foundation Registration Tradability: power exchange or OTC Index creation possibility Sales guarantee Efficiencyrelated foundation Emission tender Three packages Energy audit Regulation of quality 5/25

6 System s organization Investor Preparation of investment Automatic registration Registration for trading Taking part in tender Power Exch. Buying OTC Tender result Selling Redemption/ Remission 6/25

7 Primary energy savings level corridor 3 Mtoe Ep scenariusz Low scenario niski scenariusz High scenario wysoki 7/25

8 Low scenario Savings based on investments cost and substitution fee forecast Mtoe Ep 1,2 1 0,8 0,6 0,4 0, koszt opłata zast. oszczędności scenariusz niski cost (mln. PLN) substit. fee (PLN/toe) savings, low scenario 8/25

9 Certified vs. saved energy non-winners winners fi 0,79 0,84 0,89 0,91 0,93 0,98 1,07 1,12 1,18 1, φ gr = 0, Mtoe 693 Mtoe Savings payed < Savings obtained 9/32

10 Shortened investment payback time Years 2½ ½ ½ Average value of of the white certificate PLN/toe Euro/toe 10/25

11 Simulation of savings rate compared to BasU Simulated incr. rate % GDP baseline increase rate % (BasU) GDP Cons.Prim E 3% 4% 5% 3 1,5 24,64% 37,10% 4 2,0 11,10% 26,39% 39,63% 5 2,5-6,67% 12,05% 28,26% 6 3,0-29,61% -6,73% 13,08% 7 3,5-58,08% -30,55% -6,78% 8 4,0-95,84% -61,81% -32,35% 50% 0% Actual average increase rate 1,02 1,03 1,04 1,05 1,06 1,07 1,08 1,09-50% Aim is 20% BasU 1,03 1,04 1,05-100% 11/25

12 Issued certificates volume Mtoe 3,5 3 2,5 2 1,5 1 0, fee Euro/toe fee PLN/toe 12/25

13 Brought of value of savings Substitution fee Euro/toe PLN/toe electricity brought value of savings per 1MWh heat; brought value of savings per 10GJ coal; brought value of savings per 1tpu gas; brought value of savings per 1000m3 13/25

14 Overall savings value 1/2 Average primary energy cost Euro/toe PLN/toe mln Euro PLN PLN/toe Euro/toe savings million PLN Euro system balance million Euro PLN 14/25

15 Average primary energy cost PLN/toe Euro/toe Overall savings value 2/2 mln Euro savings million Euro PLN system balance million million Euro PLN Euro/toe Pln/toe 15/25

16 System results 1/3 Mtoe , fee PLN/toe Euro/toe Fast track t a r g e t primary energy Mtoe annual savings Mtoe primary energy target ,0 Mtoe final energy cumulatively final energy target ,596 Mtoe 16/25

17 System results 2/3 Mtoe , Slow track fee fee PLN/toe Euro/toe t a r g e t primary energy Mtoe annual savings Mtoe primary energy target ,0 Mtoe final energy cumulatively final energy target ,596 Mtoe 17/25

18 System results 3/3 Poland s perspective IMPROVED ENERGY EFFICIENCY OF THE POLISH ECONOMY ACHIEVEMENT OF SIGNIFICANT SHORTENING OF SPBT Investor s perspective SYNERGY! 18/25

19 New paradigm of energy sector NPRE by 2020!!!? National Energy Efficiency Programme National Programme for Grid Enhancement National Programme of RES & Energyoriented Agriculture National Clean Coal Programme Availability of emission allowances becomes more important and expensive (30 /MWh) than availability of fuels (20 /MWh). Variable cost dominates over fixed cost, and product cost dominates over service cost 19/25

20 Conclusion 1/4 A & We are not the richest but B We want to develop = We have to optimise development costs 20/25

21 Conclusion 2/4 A & B Everybody should have a chance to try but The best ones should win = The winning criteria should be publicly discussed 21/25

22 Conclusion 3/4 A & B The competitors are market companies but There is nothing wrong in openly seeking profit = The process should be open (transparent) 22/25

23 Conclusion 4/4 A & We expect 500 mln /a for support of energy efficiency so B = This generates investments worth 2 3 bln 0,8 1,0 Mtoe 4 6 year SPBT 23/25

24 24/25

25 Thank you Krzysztof Żmijewski Secretary General the Public Board of the National Programme for Reduction of Emissions 25/25