The impact of safety perception in route choice of e-bike commuters. Paola Astegiano, Ir.

Transcription

1 The impact f safety perceptin in rute chice f e-bike cmmuters Pala Astegian, Ir.

2 Intrducing myself Bachelr s degree in Civil Engineer at RmaTre University - Cmparisn between high speed train and plane n the main rute Rme-Milan Master s degree in Civil Engineer Infrastructures and Transprts at RmaTre University: - Urban Mbility and Residential Lcatin chice Phd at KU Leuven: frm January

3 Prblem Statement General steps Aim f the study Literature Review Methdlgy Suggestins 3

4 Prblem statement In recent decades, the prmtin f nn-mtrized mdes f transprt is increasing as part f a mre sustainable ec-mbility visin. Incentivizing a shift frm car t bicycle culd reduce rad cngestin, trafficrelated air pllutin, rad accidents, infrastructure csts, etc. 4

5 Prblem statement WHY ELECTRIC BICYCLES??? A cnsiderable increase in reach cmpared t rdinary bikes, a lwer susceptibility t wind cnditins and landscape characteristics (which makes cmmuting time predictable), still cntributing t health, and all at mre and mre affrdable price, all f these elements make electric bikes increasingly ppular amng a variety f peple. 5

6 Aim f the study The aim f my phd research is t shape an image f the plicy and infrastructure requirements needed t safeguard the numerus psitive effects f a pssible breakthrugh f electric bikes as a basic link f a sustainable mbility system. 6

7 Mdelling Research challenges Users perfrming mdal shift frm car are nt easy t identify Large number f decisinal variables Chices ut f cmplex, nn-linear relatins Multi-criteria analysis Deplyment Planning and design f e-bike netwrks Infrastructural investments (e.g. dedicated paths) Plicies t incentivize e-bike use Sharing slutins (bikesharing, e-bikesharing) 7

8 Literature Review Transprt mde chice in Flanders (E. Zwerts, G. Allaert, D. Janssens) Land use and travel behaviur (C. Bhat, P. Waddell, A.R. Pinjari) Bicycle as feedering mde (K. Martens) The influence f bicycle wnership and car wnership (C. Bhat, P. Waddell, A.R. Pinjari) E-bike in the wrld (C. Cherry) Rute chice mdel (Ben-Akiva) Experimental design thery (J.Rse,M.Bliemer) Pas cncept (Le Vine) 8

9 Methdlgy Revealed Preference Survey - Gps-tracking - Travel diary Safety indicatrs - BCI mdel Stated Preference Survey 9

10 RP survey Gps tracking: - 3 rtatin e-bikes fr each rtatin - first rtatin in Ghent - sample: wh already have an e-bike - secnd rtatin in nn-urban area - third rtatin..???? Travel diary (perhaps): - 4 weeks (ne fr each seasn) 10

11 RP survey What we can get??? Frm Gps tracking: Link-attributes Rute-attributes Safety indicatrs Frm Travel diary: SD attributes Trip-related attributes 11

12 Safety indicatrs Safety is argued t be a mtivatin t increase e-bicycle use Safety indicatrs may explain sme variatin in path chices Preference fr separated cycle paths Aviding ht spts Reduced interactins with car traffic 12

13 Safety indicatrs The Bicycle Cmpatibility Index evaluates the capability f urban and suburban radway sectins t accmmdate bth mtrists and cyclists. The BCI methdlgy will allw practitiners t evaluate existing facilities and determine pssible imprvements. Furthermre, it can be used t determine peratinal and gemetric requirements fr new facilities. 13

14 SP survey Experimental design: - relevant attributes frm RP survey - different levels fr each attributes - Type f design - Creatin f Scenari 14

15 SP survey What we can get??? Cnfirmatin f relevant attributes frm RP New relevant attributes Which attributes (infrastructure-related) can supprt the transitin twards e-bike 15

16 Methdlgy Discrete chice analysis Path chice as result f utility maximizatin Rute chice variatins Fr each user due t, e.g. changes in decisinal variables states (wet rads, mre traffic, changes in visibility, ) Frm user t user due t perceptin variance and variatins in users characteristics Maximum likelihd estimatin Find mst relevant set f descriptive variables Calibrate utility values t match bserved preferences 16

17 Questins/suggestins Which attributes can we cnsider as safety attributes and hw can we express them (BCI s attributes are really difficult)? Which kind f attributes are the mst imprtant if we are ging t cnsider infrastructure plicies? Hw can we cnvince peple t install a gps lg n their bike r hw can we cnvince them t buy an e-bike? Literature n e-bike 17

18 Thank yu fr yur attentin! 18