Business Jet Market Update and 2014 Forecast

Transcription

1 Business Jet Market Update and 2014 Forecast Rolland Vincent JETNET iq Creator/Director (U.S. Central Time) February 4-6, th Annual Interna-onal Corporate Jet & Helicopter Finance Conference

2 Forward- Looking Statements Certain statements in this report cons-tute forward- looking statements or statements which may be deemed or construed to be forward- looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securi-es Li-ga-on Reform Act of The words "forecast", "an-cipate", "es-mate", "project", "intend", "expect", "should", "believe", and similar expressions are intended to iden-fy forward- looking statements. These forward- looking statements involve, and are subject to known and unknown risks, uncertain-es and other factors which could cause actual results, performance (financial or opera-ng) or achievements to differ from the future results, performance (financial or opera-ng) or achievements expressed or implied by such forward- looking statements. These forward- looking statements are based on beliefs, assump-ons and es-mates based on informa-on currently available to JETNET LLC, and are subject to certain risks and uncertain-es that could cause actual results to differ materially from historical results or those an-cipated, depending on a variety of factors, including: significant disrup-ons in air travel (including as a result of terrorist acts), regulatory and tax changes, labor disrup-ons, currency exchange rate fluctua-ons, aerospace program development and management risks, aerospace supplier and customer financing issues, economic and avia-on/aerospace market stability, compe--on, consolida-on and profitability. Should one or more of these risks or uncertain-es materialize adversely, or should underlying assump-ons or es-mates prove incorrect, actual results may vary materially from those described. All forward- looking statements ayributable to JETNET LLC and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees, agents, and affiliates herein are expressly qualified in their en-rety by the abovemen-oned cau-onary statement. JETNET LLC disclaims any obliga-on to update forward- looking statements contained in this report, except as may be required by law. February 4-6, th Annual Interna-onal Corporate Jet & Helicopter Finance Conference 2

3 GDP and Fleet EvoluQon: 2013 Business!Jet!Fleet!(units)!/!!Dec.!31,!2013!(RED!Bars)!!14,000!!!12,000!!!10,000!!!8,000!!!6,000!!!4,000!!!2,000!!!/!!!! 7.7%! 5.1%! 4.9%! 2.9%! 2.4%! 2.2%!!803!!!341!!!168!!!172!!!120!!!183!!!171!!!200!! China!&!Hong! Kong! Argen=na! India! 2013!GDP!Forecasts!and!"Top!20"!Business!Jet!Fleets!! Saudi!Arabia! Markets with 3% GDP growth represent only 4% of the world business jet fleet Australia! Brazil!!11,774!! 1.9%! 1.9%! 1.8%! 1.7%! 1.5%! 1.5%! South!Africa! Switzerland! United!States!!507!! Canada!!130!! Russian! Federa=on!!560!!!834!! United! Kingdom! 1.2%! 1.1%! Mexico! 0.5%! 0.4%! 0.2%! /1.0%! /1.3%!!276!!!437!!!233!!!219!!!152!!!125!! Venezuela! Germany! Austria! France! Portugal! Spain! 9.0%!!Real!GDP!Growth!Forecast!for!2013!(BLUE!Line)! 8.0%! 7.0%! 6.0%! 5.0%! 4.0%! 3.0%! 2.0%! 1.0%! 0.0%! /1.0%! /2.0%! Sources: The Economist, February 1, 2014; JETNET February 4-6, th Annual Interna-onal Corporate Jet & Helicopter Finance Conference 3

4 $16,000$ $15,000$ U.S. GDP and U.S. Business Jet Cycles U.S.$GDP$and$U.S.$Business$Jet$Cycles$ 5,000,000$ 4,800,000$ $U.S.$GDP$in$Billions$of$Chained$$2009$$ (Seasonally$Adjusted$at$Annual$Rates)$$$$$ $14,000$ $13,000$ $12,000$ $11,000$ $10,000$ $9,000$ 4,600,000$ 4,400,000$ 4,200,000$ 4,000,000$ 3,800,000$ 3,600,000$ 3,400,000$ 3,200,000$ U.S.$Business$Jet$Cycles$$ $8,000$ 2001$ 2002$ 2003$ 2004$ 2005$ 2006$ 2007$ 2008$ 2009$ 2010$ 2011$ 2012$ 2013$ 3,000,000$ Sources: U.S. BEA, U.S. FAA February 4-6, th Annual Interna-onal Corporate Jet & Helicopter Finance Conference 4

5 GDP and Fleet EvoluQon: The Last 10 Years Region 10)Years) Actual)Real) GDP) Growth) 2004: )Years) Actual)Fleet) Growth) 2004:2013 Ratio)of) Fleet:to: GDP) Growth Africa 4.7% 3.4% Asia.Pacific 4.7% 8.9% Europe 1.0% 8.7% Former.Soviet.Union 4.7% 14.7% Latin.America.&.Caribbean 3.9% 3.7% Middle.East 4.5% 7.8% North.America 1.7% 3.4% World 2.6% 4.4% )))))))))))) 1.68 February 4-6, th Annual Interna-onal Corporate Jet & Helicopter Finance Conference 5

6 JETNET iq Survey Respondents by Region Q Q Surveys (n = 6,100) Africa' 3.6%' Asia'Pacific' 5.0%' Europe' 13.4%' Former'Soviet' Union' 0.2%' North'America' 59.3%' LaAn'America'&' Caribbean' 16.8%' Middle'East' 1.5%' February 4-6, th Annual Interna-onal Corporate Jet & Helicopter Finance Conference 6

7 Where is Business AviaQon in the Current Business Cycle? Op5mism$about$the$industry$ All$Respondents$ Past$the$low$ point$ Not$yet$ reached$the$ low$point$ 43%$ 23%$ February 4-6, %$ At$the$low$point$ 4th Annual Interna-onal Corporate Jet & Helicopter Finance Conference 7

8 Where is Business AviaQon in the Current Business Cycle? Past#low#point# At#low#point# Not#reached#low#point# 22.8%% 22.1%% 19.7%% 32.0%% 21.1%% 32.5%% 33.9%% 36.2%% 33.1%% 39.4%% 34.7%% 35.0%% 43.3%% 41.7%% 47.2%% 33.3%% 39.4%% 32.5%% All# Respondents# Decision# Makers#and# Influencers# North#America# La:n#America# &#Caribbean# Europe# Rest#of#World# February 4-6, th Annual Interna-onal Corporate Jet & Helicopter Finance Conference 8

9 >60% Likelihood of New Aircrae Purchase Next 12 Months Other Europe & Former Soviet Union United Canada Kingdom 7.8% 14.3% 14.3% United States 8.5% Eurozone 16.0% Middle East Mexico 13.1% Africa 20.0% 11.1% Brazil Other LaBn America 24.0% 22.3% & Caribbean Asia 16.7% Australia & New Zealand 11.2% Last 4 Quarterly Surveys February 4-6, th Annual Interna-onal Corporate Jet & Helicopter Finance Conference 9

10 New Aircrae Purchase IntenQons By Business Jet Size Category Next 12 Months Q World Fleet Large%Jets% 26.1%% Small%Jets% 41.2%% New Orders (Next 12 months) Medium%Jets% 32.6%% Large%Jets% 42.5%% Small%Jets% 20.0%% Medium%Jets% 37.5%% February 4-6, th Annual Interna-onal Corporate Jet & Helicopter Finance Conference 10

11 New Aircrae Purchase IntenQons: Next 5 years North America LaQn America & Caribbean 81"100%% 15.6%% Do%not% know%/% uncertain% 8.1%% Do%not%know%/% uncertain% 12.0%% 0"20%% 26.7%% 61"80%% 10.3%% 0"20%% 40.0%% 81"100%% 22.7%% 21"40%% 9.3%% 41"60%% 12.5%% 21"40%% 13.4%% 61"80%% 13.3%% 41"60%% 16.0%% February 4-6, th Annual Interna-onal Corporate Jet & Helicopter Finance Conference 11

12 New Aircrae Purchase IntenQons: Next 5 years Do%not% know%/% uncertain% 5.6%% 81"100%% 22.5%% Europe 0"20%% 35.2%% 81"100%% 10.0%% Rest of World Do%not%know%/% uncertain% 10.0%% 0"20%% 37.5%% 61"80%% 17.5%% 61"80%% 15.5%% 41"60%% 8.5%% 21"40%% 12.7%% 41"60%% 12.5%% 21"40%% 12.5%% February 4-6, th Annual Interna-onal Corporate Jet & Helicopter Finance Conference 12

13 Inhibitors to New Aircrae Purchase Which of the following factors are most likely to prevent or delay your organiza-on from purchasing a business aircra^ over the next 12 months? Do&not&need&addi4onal&aircraB& 20.2%% Uncertainty&about&economy&/&regulatory&environment& Purchase&price&or&tradeKup&cost&too&high& 12.7%% 12.5%% Inability&to&sell&current&aircraB& Decline&in&business&ac4vity& Opera4ng&cost&too&high& No&compelling&aircraB&that&meet&my&organiza4on's&needs& Availability&of&financing&or&capital&for&purchase& 9.9%% 8.5%% 7.2%% 6.8%% 5.7%% February 4-6, th Annual Interna-onal Corporate Jet & Helicopter Finance Conference 13

14 JETNET iq Fly/Buy Index Aircrae UQlizaQon and New Aircrae Purchase IntenQons!113.09!!!111.64!!!100.00!! Baseline## Q1#2011#!101.66!!!99.89!!!94.09!!!93.98!!!94.99!!!99.37!!!97.17!!!80.68!!!102.99!! Q1#2011# Q2#2011# Q3#2011# Q4#2011# Q1#2012# Q2#2012# Q3#2012# Q4#2012# Q1#2013# Q2#2013# Q3#2013# Q4#2013# February 4-6, th Annual Interna-onal Corporate Jet & Helicopter Finance Conference 14

15 JETNET iq Fly/Buy Index North America Aircrae UQlizaQon and New Aircrae Purchase IntenQons 100.0$ Baseline$$ Q1$2011$ 89.2$ 84.2$ 80.9$ 95.3$ 90.1$ 85.0$ 82.7$ 92.9$ 86.0$ 72.3$ 93.4$ Q1#2011#Q2#2011#Q3#2011#Q4#2011#Q1#2012#Q2#2012#Q3#2012#Q4#2012#Q1#2013#Q2#2013#Q3#2013#Q4#2013# February 4-6, th Annual Interna-onal Corporate Jet & Helicopter Finance Conference 15

16 JETNET iq Fly/Buy Index Decision Makers & Influencers Aircrae UQlizaQon and New Aircrae Purchase IntenQons Baseline$$ Q1$2011$ 100.0$ 123.4$ 107.5$ 110.7$ 101.6$ 92.2$ 93.4$ 101.8$ 94.0$ 97.2$ 105.4$ 81.9$ Q1#2011# Q2#2011# Q3#2011# Q4#2011# Q1#2012# Q2#2012# Q3#2012# Q4#2012# Q1#2013# Q2#2013# Q3#2013# Q4#2013# February 4-6, th Annual Interna-onal Corporate Jet & Helicopter Finance Conference 16

17 JETNET iq Fly/Buy Index Europe Aircrae UQlizaQon and New Aircrae Purchase IntenQons 100.0$ 103.2$ 114.9$ 108.6$ 93.7$ 93.2$ 97.9$ Baseline$$ Q1$2011$ 80.0$ 60.0$ 69.1$ 83.7$ 83.4$ Q1#2011#Q2#2011#Q3#2011#Q4#2011#Q1#2012#Q2#2012#Q3#2012#Q4#2012#Q1#2013#Q2#2013#Q3#2013#Q4#2013# February 4-6, th Annual Interna-onal Corporate Jet & Helicopter Finance Conference 17

18 1400" JETNET iq Forecast - New Business Jet Deliveries Business"jet"deliveries"<"historical"and"forecast"b 1200" Deliveries"(units)" 1000" 800" 600" 400" 200" Year Units 2008: : : % over 6 years 2011: : E: F: % YOY 0" 2004" 2005" 2006" 2007" 2008" 2009" 2010" 2011" 2012" 2013" 2014F" Personal"Jet" Personal"Jet" Very"Light"Jet" Light"Jet" Light"Jet" Super"Light"Jet" Mid<Size"Jet" Super"Mid<Size"Jet" Large"Jet" Large"Long<Range"Jet" Large"Ultra"Long<Range"Jet" Airline"Business"Jet" February 4-6, th Annual Interna-onal Corporate Jet & Helicopter Finance Conference 18

19 JETNET iq Forecast New Business Jet Deliveries New$Business$Jet$Delivery$Revenue$2$2013E$ $2013$in$Millions$based$on$B&CA$List$Prices$!$10,481!!!$890!!!$844!!!$555!!!$348!!!$401!! 644 units $US 20.5 billion!$1,907!!!$2,845!!!$2,276!! Very!Light!Jet! Light!Jet! Super!Light!Jet! Mid=Size!Jet! Super!Mid=Size!Jet! Large!Jet! Large!Long=Range!Jet! Large!Ultra!Long=Range!Jet! Airline!Business!Jet! February 4-6, th Annual Interna-onal Corporate Jet & Helicopter Finance Conference 19

20 JETNET iq Forecast New Business Jet Deliveries!$1,156!! New$Business$Jet$Delivery$Revenue$2$2014F$ $2013$in$Millions$based$on$B&CA$List$Prices$!$10,048!!!$771!!!$389!!!$564!!!$767!! 685 units $US 21.0 billion!$2,506!!!$2,245!!!$2,510!! Very!Light!Jet! Light!Jet! Super!Light!Jet! Mid=Size!Jet! Super!Mid=Size!Jet! Large!Jet! Large!Long=Range!Jet! Large!Ultra!Long=Range!Jet! Airline!Business!Jet! February 4-6, th Annual Interna-onal Corporate Jet & Helicopter Finance Conference 20

21 JETNET iq Forecast - Business Jet Deliveries and Fleet Business'Jet'Fleet'Evolu*on' ' Fleet'' Dec'31,' 2023' ' 26,331' +35% in 10 Years 19,537' 2,566' Re*rements' and' Removals' ' 9,360' New' Deliveries' ' Fleet' Dec.'31,' 2013' February 4-6, th Annual Interna-onal Corporate Jet & Helicopter Finance Conference 21

22 About JETNET iq JETNET iq is a forecasqng and premium advisory service for the business aviaqon market, designed to help customers Know More. Available on an annual subscripqon basis, JETNET iq consists of three main elements: 1. JETNET iq Reports are designed to be the definiqve analyqcal reference for the business aviaqon industry, incorporaqng quarterly state- of- the- industry analyses, voice- of- the- customer insights, and detailed delivery and fleet forecasts. 2. JETNET iq Summits provide unique networking opportuniqes on emerging developments and to interact with other thought leaders in the industry. 3. JETNET iq Research serves the needs of members with customized research and analysis requirements on a project- by- project basis. For more informaqon on JETNET iq, log on to or contact Rolland Vincent, JETNET iq Creator/Director at or rollie@jetnet.com. February 4-6, th Annual Interna-onal Corporate Jet & Helicopter Finance Conference 22

23 About JETNET Since 1988, JETNET has delivered the most comprehensive and reliable business aircrae research to its exclusive clientele of aviaqon professionals worldwide. JETNET s poruolio of services includes JETNET iq, JETNET EvoluQon, AERODEX, AviaQon Business Index (ABI), AvData, JETNET CRM, Helidex, Rotodex and JETNET EvoluQon Mobile. JETNET is the ulqmate source for informaqon and intelligence on the worldwide fleet of more than 100,000 aircrae, both fixed- and rotary- wing. Headquartered in its state- of- the- art facility in UQca, NY, JETNET offers comprehensive user- friendly aircrae data via real- Qme internet access or regular updates. For more informaqon on JETNET LLC, log on to jetnet.com or contact Paul Cardarelli, JETNET Vice President of Sales, at (USA) or paul@jetnet.com; InternaQonal inquiries, contact Karim Derbala, JETNET Managing Director of Global Sales, at or karim@jetnet.com. February 4-6, th Annual Interna-onal Corporate Jet & Helicopter Finance Conference 23