Colorado River System: Current Conditions and Near-Term Outlook

Transcription

1 Colorado River System: Current Conditions and Near-Term Outlook Colorado River Water Users Association 2013 Annual Conference Las Vegas, NV December 11-13, 2013

2 resentation Overview Current Drought and Reservoir Conditions Projected Reservoir Elevations Extended Drought Scenario Volumes to Avoid Critical Elevations Summary

3 urrent 14-year Drought ( ) tural Flow at Lees Ferry Historical Long-term Average ( *) Current 14-year Drought Average ( ) Paleo Record (1200+ years) Less than1 st percentile of 14-year periods Climate Projections ( ) Between the 25 th and 35 th percentile of 14-year periods

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5 ter Year Snowpack and Precipitation f December 10, 2013 olorado River sin above Lake Powell Chart developed with SNOTEL data as of December 10, 2013 ater Year 2014 recipitation 1 year-to-date) 0% of average Current Snowpack 1 7% of average

6 ake Powell Projected* Elevations Historical Elevation Projected Min, Median, Max Elevations 3,700 3,670 3,640 Equalization Tier 3,700 ft Upper Elevation Balancing Tier ~ 3,646 ft 3,610 3,580 3,550 3,520 Mid-Elevation Release Tier 3,575 ft Lower Elevation Balancing Tier 3,525 ft 3,490 3,460 Minimum Power Pool 3,490 ft 3,430 3,400 3,370 Dead Pool 3,370 ft End of Calendar Year

7 ake Mead Projected* Elevations Historical Elevation Projected Min, Median, Max Elevations Flood Control Surplus or Quantified Surplus Condition 1,220 ft Domestic Surplus or ICS Surplus Condition 1,200 ft Normal or ICS Surplus Condition 1,145 ft Shortage Condition 1,075 ft Shortage Condition 1,050 ft Shortage Condition 1,025 ft End of Calendar Year

8 cent of Traces with Event or System Condition lts from October 2013 CRSS 1,2 (values in percent) er in e ell Event or System Condition Equalization Tier Equalization annual release > 8.23 maf Equalization annual release = 8.23 maf 0 <1 1 <1 <1 Upper Elevation Balancing Tier Upper Elevation Balancing annual release > 8.23 maf Upper Elevation Balancing annual release = 8.23 maf Upper Elevation Balancing annual release < 8.23 maf 0 <1 <1 <1 <1 Mid-Elevation Release Tier Mid-Elevation Release annual release = 8.23 maf 0 <1 <1 1 1 Mid-Elevation Release annual release = 7.48 maf Lower Elevation Balancing Tier 0 < Shortage Condition any amount (Mead 1,075 ft) 0 < er in e d Shortage 1 st level (Mead 1,075 and 1,050) 0 < Shortage 2 nd level (Mead < 1,050 and 1,025) 0 < Shortage 3 rd level (Mead < 1,025) 0 <1 <1 1 4 Surplus Condition any amount (Mead 1,145 ft) 0 < Surplus Flood Control 0 <1 <1 1 2 Normal or ICS Surplus Condition 100 > voir initial conditions based on projected levels on December 31, 2013, from the October Month Study

9 xtended 21-year Drought ( ) tural Flow at Lees Ferry Historical Long-term Average ( *) Extended 21-year Drought Average ( ) Paleo Record (1200+ years) Less than1 st percentile of 21-year periods Climate Projections ( ) Between the 20 th and 30 th percentile of 21-year periods

10 ake Powell Projected* Elevations Historical Elevation Extended 21-Year Drought 1 Projected Min, Median, Max Elevations 3,700 3,670 3,640 Equalization Tier 3,700 ft Upper Elevation Balancing Tier ~ 3,646 ft 3,610 3,580 3,550 3,520 Mid-Elevation Release Tier 3,575 ft Lower Elevation Balancing Tier 3,525 ft 3,490 3,460 Minimum Power Pool 3,490 ft 3,430 3,400 3,370 Dead Pool 3,370 ft End of Calendar Year

11 ake Mead Projected* Elevations Historical Elevation Extended 21-Year Drought 1 Projected Min, Median, Max Elevations Flood Control Surplus or Quantified Surplus Condition 1,220 ft Domestic Surplus or ICS Surplus Condition 1,200 ft Normal or ICS Surplus Condition 1,145 ft Shortage Condition 1,075 ft Shortage Condition 1,050 ft Shortage Condition 1,025 ft End of Calendar Year

12 ake Mead Projected* Elevations Historical Elevation Projected Min, Median, Max Elevations Extended 21-Year Drought 1 Extended 21-Year Drought with 3.0 MAF Option Water 2 Flood Control Surplus or Quantified Surplus Condition 1,220 ft Domestic Surplus or ICS Surplus Condition 1,200 ft Normal or ICS Surplus Condition 1,145 ft Shortage Condition 1,075 ft Shortage Condition 1,050 ft Shortage Condition 1,025 ft End of Calendar Year

13 ummary Fortunate to start the drought in 2000 with nearly full system conditions Too early to tell what runoff might be like this water year A wide range of future outcomes is possible through 2020, including an extended drought Putting water back into the system, through a range of options, improves system resiliency and helps to avoid critical reservoir elevations

14 Thank You For further information: