Demography/ Intergenerational Relationships

Transcription

1 Council of Europe Youth in The Future of Youth Policies Budapest,1-3 October 2013 Keynote Address Demography/ Intergenerational Relationships Competition/Cooperation Between Regions and Generations Dr. Dragana Avramov avramov@avramov.org 1

2 Our approach World system analysis Individual level analysis World system approach helpful for setting the stage We can look at the structures that create certain conditions for options to emerge Individual level analysis of life-course events We can look at capacities of individuals and ways people take decisions related to transitions (e.g. in and out of education and employment; mobility and migration; family formation) 2

3 2000 Population prospects 2050 (Europe, more developed countries, least developed countries) Least DC MDC Europe Population (in million) Year 3

4 Population prospects in major powerhouses in the world (UN prospects 2012) Population size (in millions) Europe Northern America China India Brazil Year avramov@avramov.org 4

5 Population pyramids of Austria and Ethiopia 2010 (8,4 and 83 million) 5

6 Population Pyramids Austria and Ethiopia 2050 (9.3 and 188 million) 6

7 Population prospects (working age population) in in major powerhouses in the world (UN) Europe Northern America China India Brazil Population (in million) Year avramov@avramov.org 7

8 Population 65+ in major powerhouses in the world (UN) Population 65+ (in percent) Europe United States China India Brazil Year avramov@avramov.org 8

9 Dependency ratios for Europe Total dependency ratio Child dependency ratio Old age dependency ratio avramov@avramov.org 9

10 Dependency ratios least developed countries (UN) Total dependency ratio Child dependency ratio Old-age dependency ratio avramov@avramov.org 10

11 Population (in million) Population prospects in Southern Europe and North Africa Southern Europe Northern Africa Year avramov@avramov.org 11

12 2000 Yearly net number of migrants (thousands) (UN population prospects 2008) Yearly net number of migrants (thousands) Europe United States China India Brazil Year avramov@avramov.org 12

13 Replacement migration Europe: Average annual net migration (thousands) Average annual net migration (thousands) Scenario 1:Mediam variant Scenario 3: Constant total population Scenario 4: Constant age group Year avramov@avramov.org 13

14 What does demography tell us? Inequalities in life chances between generations and between populations in different regions/countries will persist as opportunities are partly embedded in demography. 14

15 After 2018, European economies may face considerable shortages in their labour supply Population ageing in Europe is a strong pressure factor for structural changes to the ways our societies are organized, shaping of the life-course of individuals, and values attached to inter-generational solidarity. In a longer term prospective - up to mid 21 st century - demography will be an ever stronger driver for change with more jobs than people in ageing Europe. Employers will need to be more flexible about how and where people work and how they are rewarded. avramov@avramov.org 15

16 Tertiary education projections for selected regions in the world 100 Population in tertiary education (in millions) Europe Russia US China-70 India-40 China-80 India Year avramov@avramov.org 16

17 Today: Prolongation of youth - a modern phenomenon Extended education Difficulties in entering the labour market Labour market conditions (casual work, precarious employment, part-time work, etc.) Postponement of life-course events such as leaving parental home, couple formation, parenthood avramov@avramov.org 17

18 Management of migration and integration of migrants in the late 20th century and in the first half of the 21st century Immigrants from developing countries are overrepresented among the unemployed and casually employed; Their descendents have higher school failures and dropout rates than the host population, are more often unemployed than their parental generation and the average population, are performing lower scioeconomic status jobs, are often badly housed, and show less upward mobility. They are also more often victims of discrimination, xenophobia and racism. 18

19 The future: Immediate perspective Reform national social protection systems in order to preserve them Clinging on to acquired rights (e.g. mandatory age at retirement, that has remained unchanged in most countries for 100 years or so), means embracing the collapse of the system of transgenerational solidarity as we have known it. Mainstream for good practices at EU, national and regional levels and setting benchmarks 19

20 The future: Longer term perspective: thinking out of the box Planning for the future: scenarios Visions: our species future 20

21 Europe : Three scenarios (EC) Nobody cares: Standstill in European Integration EU under threat: Fragmented European Integration European renaissance: Further European integration 21

22 Choices need to be made Business as usual is not an option Only Renaissance can break with the past solutions to crisis (internal & external) require further, stronger political integration Incremental changes, small adjustments to the current policy framework will not do the job: in order to avoid catastrophic declines, bold, ambitious and coordinated policy actions are required 22

23 Longer term perspective Our species future: seeds are embedded in the present but will no doubt be further enhanced by scientific research 23

24 Transhuman stage World Transhumanist Association: Substantial advancements may be realistically expected in the course of this century Transhuman stage with enhanced human intellectual, physical and psychological capacities for people and increased longevity by means of modern technologies. 24

25 World wide competition vs. Cooperation Monopoly on enhancement/transhumanism? Polycentric world with enhanced quality of life and learning mobility? You will be contributing to choices to be made 25

26 THANK YOU 26