Oregon. Outlook for Oregon s Prison Population (Preliminary October 2013: Not for Redistribution) Multnomah County LPSCC

Transcription

1 Multnomah County LPSCC Oregon Outlook for Oregon s Prison Population (Preliminary October 2013: Not for Redistribution) September 10, 2013 Mark McMullen State Economist, Director Office of Economic Analysis

2 The Role of the Office of Economic Analysis Executive Order and ORS direct the Department of Administrative Services and the Corrections Population Forecasting Advisory Committee (made up of public safety stakeholders & experts) to produce a prison forecast twice a year Given current laws and practices of public safety officials, OEA creates a preliminary forecast for the prison, parole, PPS and local control populations based largely on the overall demographic outlook and trends in the existing prison population Changes to the public safety environment such as new laws or changes in practices and crime rates are analyzed by the Advisory Committee with technical support from the CJC. Any assumed impacts are folded into the population forecast. As these changes begin to appear in the data over time, OEA updates the initial impact estimates as necessary In addition to our traditional forecast, OEA s analytics must improve in order to help implement potential changes to the system. In particular, we need to delineate the data needs of local public safety officials who will be called upon to implement any new processes going forward 2

3 Oregon Historical Prison Population Forecast Overview

4 Two Different Eras of Population Growth 16,000 14,000 Oregon Prison Population* Annualized Growth: 1.37% 12,000 Local Control Law Effects 10,000 8, Annualized Growth: 7.85% 6,000 4,000 *Head count of prisoners on the first day of each month. Pre-2000 data adjusts for local control law effect

5 Forecast Evolution 18,000 17,000 16,000 15,000 14,000 13,000 12,000 11,000 10,000 Oregon Prison Population and Forecasts , Prison Apr-00 Oct-00 Apr-01 Oct-01 Apr-02 Oct-02 Apr-03 Oct-03 Apr-04 Oct-04 Apr-05 Oct-05 Apr-06 Oct-06 Apr-07 Oct-07 Apr-08 Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 Oct-10 Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13

6 Forecast Accuracy (Percentage difference from forecast) 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% One year forecast April Oct April Oct April Oct April Oct April Oct April Oct April Oct April Oct April Oct April Oct April Oct April Oct April Five year forecast April Oct April Oct April Oct April Oct April Oct April Oct April Oct April Oct April Oct April Oct April Oct April Oct April

7 Oregon Building the Preliminary Outlook

8 Prison Intakes Drive the Long- Run Population Outlook 510 Oregon Monthly Prison Admissions Actual intakes 7-month smoothed 350 8

9 1/1/2009 7/1/2009 1/1/2010 7/1/2010 1/1/2011 7/1/2011 1/1/2012 7/1/2012 1/1/2013 7/1/2013 1/1/2014 7/1/2014 1/1/2015 7/1/2015 1/1/2016 7/1/2016 1/1/2017 7/1/2017 1/1/2018 7/1/2018 1/1/2019 7/1/2019 1/1/2020 7/1/2020 1/1/2021 7/1/2021 1/1/2022 7/1/2022 1/1/2023 7/1/2023 M57 Sentencing Reforms Are Playing Out Incoming Property Offenders Current Forecast Previous Forecast

10 1/1/2008 8/1/2008 3/1/ /1/2009 5/1/ /1/2010 7/1/2011 2/1/2012 9/1/2012 4/1/ /1/2013 6/1/2014 1/1/2015 8/1/2015 3/1/ /1/2016 5/1/ /1/2017 7/1/2018 2/1/2019 9/1/2019 4/1/ /1/2020 6/1/2021 1/1/2022 8/1/2022 3/1/ /1/2023 Rapid Growth in Female Intakes Has Slowed In 2013 Incoming Female Offenders Admits Previous

11 M57 Reforms Are Also Evident in the Timing of Releases (Share of current population remaining in prison) Release Index for Incoming Property Offenders 120 Latest Year Months 11

12 Oregon Incorporating New Policy and Other Environmental Changes

13 Estimated Prison Population Impacts of HB HB 3194 Bed Impacts!0 - Year End of Trans Leave M57 Drug DWS Marijuana - Probation ID Theft Robbery 3 13

14 Estimated Prison Population Impacts of HB Estimated impacts for HB Transitional Leave DWS, excluding homicide or serious physical injury Reducing ID Theft from 24 to 18 Presumptive Prison Drug M57 Presumptive Probation Reducing Robb 3 from 24 to 18 Presumptive Prison 14

15 Reforms Delay the Need for New Facilities by 5 yrs 17,000 16,500 16,000 Final Foreast Total Baseline Inmates SA* Previous SA forecast Historic Population Oregon Inmate Forecast 15,500 15,000 14,500 14,000 13,500 13, *Baseline forecast assumes no new law changes 15

16 Oregon Preliminary Local Population Forecasts

17 Local Population Forecasts: Probation Remains Stable 21,000 Probation Population 20,000 19,000 18,000 17,000 16,000 Population History April 2013 October ,000 Jan 00 Jan 02 Jan 04 Jan 06 Jan 08 Jan 10 Jan 12 Jan 14 Jan 16 Jan 18 Jan 20 Jan 22 17

18 Local Population Forecasts: Sunset of 60-Day Cap on Technical Violations 1,600 Local Control 1,400 1,200 1, Population History April 2013 October Jan 00 Jan 02 Jan 04 Jan 06 Jan 08 Jan 10 Jan 12 Jan 14 Jan 16 Jan 18 Jan 20 Jan 22 18

19 Local Population Forecasts: Inactive Status Will Not Sunset 17,000 Parole/Post Prison Supervision 16,000 15,000 14,000 13,000 12,000 11,000 Population History April 2013 October ,000 Jan 00 Jan 02 Jan 04 Jan 06 Jan 08 Jan 10 Jan 12 Jan 14 Jan 16 Jan 18 Jan 20 Jan 22 19

20 For More Information Standard Contact: 155 Cottage Street NE Salem, OR (503) Social Media: 20