Worldwide Laser Market Review & Forecast

Transcription

1 Worldwide Laser Market Review & Forecast Created and Presented By: Allen Nogee, Laser Markets Research, President

2 Disclosure Slide At the time these forecasts were created, the author had a financial non-controlling interest in the following: Coherent Stock

3 Presentation Overview 35,000 Foot Overview Laser Trends Laser Forecasts by Application & Type Summary & Questions

4 35,000 Foot Overview

5 35,000 Foot View: GDP GDP Not Significantly Changed From Last Year Economic Uncertainty, Brexit, Trump Strong Dollar, Euro Weak, Yen Weak, Yuan Weak Lots of Talk of Trade Restrictions from US Pres. Economy Holding Its Own For Now

6 35,000 Foot View: GDP Sources: Commerce Dept. (Actual), Congressional Budget Office (Projected, Potential), WSJ (Graphics)

7 35,000 Foot View: GDP New Normal Causes: Demand for Commodities is Slowing in China Political Instability Slow Productivity Growth Wage Stagnation Aging Populations The Low-Hanging Fruit in Science, Medicine and Technology has been Harvested

8 35,000 Foot View: Laser Company Revenues Pre-Merger Employees Newport 950 MKS 3750 Rofin 2100 Coherent 2700

9 35,000 Foot View: Laser Company Revenues Breakeven Analysis

10 35,000 Foot View: Long-Term

11 35,000 Foot View: Long-Term

12 35,000 Foot View: Long-Term Declining Laser Prices, Especially Pump Diode Lasers $1000/watt, $90/watt, $20/watt, Today - $~2/watt Greater Chinese Competition Strong Dollar, Little if any GDP Growth Fiber Lasers Displacing CO2 Lasers Diode Lasers Displacing Solid-State Lasers UV Fiber Lasers Displacing Solid-State & Potentially Excimer

13 35,000 Foot View: Long-Term 6.3% CAGR

14 2016 Laser Trends Developing

15 2016 Laser Trends: LIDAR Aug. 2016: Ford & Baidu Invest $150M in Velodyne Aug. 2016: Delphi & Samsung Invest $90M in Quanergy Nov. 2016: Intel Capital Investing $250M over 2 Years LIDAR Precise 3D Mapping, Expensive Radar Works In Most Conditions Cameras Cheap Ultrasonic Short-Range Larry Page vs. Elon Musk

16 2016 Laser Trends: LIDAR (US$M) Uses: Drones, Autonomous Vehicles, Robotics, Mapping, Industrial, Military, Wind Farms, Security

17 2016 Laser Trends: LIDAR Ford s More Sleek Autonomous Vehicle

18 2016 Laser Trends: Laser Light Source Automotive Headlights BMW i8 (+$6,300) BMW 7-Series Audi R8 Europe 2016 Models Audi R8 In the US in Limited (25) 2017 models ($229,200+)

19 2016 Laser Trends: Laser Light Source Laser Cinema Projection Lighting 160,000 Screens Worldwide 550 RGB Projectors Approx. 660 more RGB in Laser Phosphor 50+ Models RGB: 2000 IMAX / 150 Giant IMAX / 74 RGB Laser IMAX Dolby Cinema (AMC/Wanda) 138 RGB Laser Dolby

20 2016 Laser Trends: Laser Light Source Source: Christie

21 2016 Laser Trends: Laser Light Source Projector Manufacturers Christie (Canada) Barco (Belgium) NEC (Japan) Sony (Japan) Laser Manufacturers Necsel PowerTechnology IPG Nichia (Blue Diodes) Appotronics (China) Cinemeccanica (Italy)

22 2016 Laser Trends: Laser Light Source General Lighting LED LASER Source: USC Santa Barbra

23 2016 Laser Trends: Safety Xfire Line System $30-$40 Safety Blaze bike projection $150

24 2016 Laser Trends: Safety Redstar Safety

25 2016 Laser Trends: 3D Printing Additive Manufacturing Stereolithography (SL) Formlabs Form2, $3,499 3D Systems ProJet 1200, $4,900 DWS Lab Xfab, $5,000 MoonRay, $3,500 Autodesk Ember, $7,495 B9CreatoR v1.2, $4,595 NEOS 800-2W freq tripled Nd:YVO 4 laser

26 2016 Laser Trends: 3D Printing Additive Manufacturing Selective Laser Melting (SLM) Over 1000 SLM Systems in 2016 Fiber, Disk, CO 2, Femto Fiber 30W to 1KW+, 1 Laser to 4 Lasers 3D Systems Concept Laser (GE) Materialise NV Matsuura e-manufacturing Solutions (EOS) RPM Innovations Renishaw SLM Solutions (Owned by GE) Trumpf, Sodick Realizer PolarOnyx

27 2016 Laser Trends: Flat Panel Displays Flat Panel Displays Large Displays & Small Displays High-Power Excimer Lasers

28 2016 Laser Trends: EUV ßSmall High-Precision Tracking CO2 Laser ßLarge CO2 Zapping Laser Source: ASML

29 2016 Laser Trends: EUV Commercial in 2018 or 2019, Maybe 20 KW CO2 Amplifier Today. Eventually 60KW 100KW Trumpf Building 70 Million, 34,000 Sq. M in Building In Ditzingen, Germany. 25 micron Tin Droplets, 50,000 per second Each Droplet Hit with a Laser Twice All Done in a Vacuum ASML Has Shipped 12 (4 in ~108 Million Each. 12 in 2017, 24 in 2018, 48 in 2019, so says ASML.

30 2016 Laser Trends: Communications 2016 was the Year of 100G Transceivers China Growth the Strongest (China Broadband 2020) Finistar +15% Rev., +10% Telecom, +7.7% Datacom Lumentum +21% Rev., +25% Telecom, +24% Datacom NeoPhotonics +24% Rev., +53% 100G Oclaro +55% Rev., +44% Telecom, +68% Datacom

31 2016 Laser Trends: Communications Source: StatCounter

32 2016 Laser Trends: Communications 35 Worldwide Cellular Mobile Traffic a Month (Exabytes per Month) Middle East & Africa - Asia-Pacific - Eastern Europe - Latin America - Western Europe - North America - 15X 9X 8X 8X 6X 6X 0 Source: 2015 Cisco Source: Cisco

33 2016 Laser Trends: Communications Silicon Photonics (Laser on Silicon) Intel Silicon Photonics 100G PSM4 Intel Silicon Photonics 100G CWDM4 500 m, 2Km, or 10 Km Range 100Gb/sec today, 400Gb/sec soon Currently Over Copper, 25Gb/sec Over 3 meter distance

34 2016 Laser Trends: Material Processing Material Processing 2016 What Happened? Marking +4.4% +3.1% Micro +4.2% +23.5% (-1.3%) w/o Excimer Macro +6.8% +4.5%

35 2016 Laser Trends: Material Processing Material Processing 2016 What Happened? Greater Price Competition From China Unsettled Times (U.S. Election, Brexit, etc.) Smartphone Growth Slowing, just 3% in 2016 (10.5% in 2015) Newport & Rofin Transitions CO 2 to Fiber Conversions Slowing

36 2016 Laser Trends: Laser Types Changing CO2 displaced by Fiber Solid State Displaced by Fiber and Diode Excimer Displaced by Fiber (in some areas) Direct Diode for some Metal Cutting, Welding Excimer Displaced by CO2 (Lithography) 8KW TeraBlade Engine

37 Laser Forecasts

38 Laser Forecasts: Laser Types HP Diode QCL Fiber LP Diode, SSL, CO2

39 Laser Forecasts: Applications

40 Laser Forecasts: Communications

41 Laser Forecasts: Communications Revenues (US$M) CAGR '17 - '22 10G & Under Transceivers $798.7 $812.7 $817.8 $844.8 $830.6 $814.8 $ % y-to-y 2% 1% 3% -2% -2% 0% 25G/40G Transceivers $952.0 $880.5 $817.8 $698.9 $534.0 $374.8 $ % y-to-y -8% -7% -15% -24% -30% -43% 100G Transceivers $1,284.3 $1,490.0 $1,671.2 $1,996.9 $2,254.6 $2,525.9 $2, % y-to-y 16% 12% 19% 13% 12% 13% 200G+ Transceivers $159.7 $203.2 $248.9 $299.5 $336.2 $358.5 $ % y-to-y 27% 23% 20% 12% 7% 7% Total Transceiver Revenues $3,194.8 $3,386.4 $3,555.8 $3,840.2 $3,955.4 $4,074.1 $4, % Source: Laser Markets Research y-to-y 6.0% 5.0% 8.0% 3.0% 3.0% 5.0%

42 Laser Forecasts: Displays Displays Revenue (US$M) CAGR '17 - ' $15.3 $ % $ % $ % $ % $ % $87.0-6% 15.3% $62.1 $ % $ % $ % $ % $ % $ % 15.1% $121.6 $ % $ % $ % $ % $ % $ % -3.8% $6.4 $6.1-5% $5.8-4% $5.6-4% $5.6 0% $5.6 0% $5.6 0% -1.6% $16.5 $ % $ % $ % $9.5-5% $9.5 0% $9.5 0% -12.5% $205.3 $259.6 $298.9 $344.3 $338.3 $365.7 $ % 26.4% 15.1% 15.2% -1.7% 8.1% 0.7% TV & Large Projectors Revenue (US$M) y-to-y Digital Cinema Revenue (US$M) y-to-y Light Shows Revenues (US$M) y-to-y Pointers Revenues (US$M) y-to-y Home Laser Projectors Revenues (US$M) y-to-y Total (US$M) y-to-y Source: Laser Markets Research

43 Laser Forecasts: Micro Materials

44 Laser Forecasts: Micro Materials MICRO MATERIALS PROCESSING CAGR Revenue (US$M) '17 - '22 Semi/PC Board/Display $375.7 $535.2 $383.5 $461.3 $554.7 $612.3 $ % y-to-y 42% -28% 20% 20% 10% 10% Fine Metal Processing $353.6 $363.6 $377.2 $397.0 $411.9 $429.7 $ % y-to-y 3% 4% 5% 4% 4% 4% Non-Metal Processing $232.0 $251.9 $271.1 $286.9 $300.2 $308.6 $ % y-to-y 9% 8% 6% 5% 3% 3% Additive Manufacturing $49.7 $53.2 $56.6 $60.2 $62.8 $66.4 $ % y-to-y 7% 6% 6% 4% 6% 6% Solar/Other $93.9 $94.5 $90.4 $75.3 $66.6 $59.5 $ % y-to-y 1% -4% -17% -11% -11% -11% Total $1,105.0 $1,298.5 $1,178.8 $1,280.7 $1,396.2 $1,476.5 $1, % y-to-y 17.5% -9.2% 8.6% 9.0% 5.8% 5.9% Source: Laser Markets Research

45 Laser Forecasts: Micro Materials

46 Laser Forecasts: KW

47 Laser Forecasts: KW Revenue CAGR (US$M) '17 - '22 Metal Cutting $1,141.4 $1,189.5 $1,218.3 $1,268.5 $1,320.4 $1,370.5 $1, % y-to-y 4% 2% 4% 4% 4% 4% Metal Welding $296.9 $311.5 $322.9 $335.4 $355.1 $374.8 $ % y-to-y 5% 4% 4% 6% 6% 6% Additive/Other $53.7 $64.2 $89.7 $98.8 $108.8 $119.3 $ % y-to-y 19% 40% 10% 10% 10% 9% Total $1,492.1 $1,565.2 $1,630.9 $1,702.7 $1,784.4 $1,864.7 $1, % y-to-y 4.9% 4.2% 4.4% 4.8% 4.5% 4.5% Source: Laser Markets Research

48 Laser Forecasts: KW Fiber

49 Laser Forecasts: Marking

50 Laser Forecasts: Marking LASER MARKING Revenue CAGR (US$M) '17 - '22 CO 2 $181.4 $176.0 $170.7 $170.7 $170.7 $170.7 $ % y-to-y -3% -3% 0% 0% 0% 0% Solid State $49.4 $49.7 $50.2 $50.7 $51.2 $51.7 $ % y-to-y 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% Fiber $265.4 $274.4 $282.7 $288.3 $288.3 $288.3 $ % y-to-y 3% 3% 2% 0% 0% 0% Diode $64.0 $68.4 $73.2 $77.6 $82.3 $87.2 $ % y-to-y 7% 7% 6% 6% 6% 0% Total $560.1 $568.5 $576.8 $587.3 $592.5 $597.9 $ % y-to-y 1.5% 1.4% 1.8% 0.9% 0.9% 1.0% Source: Laser Markets Research

51 Laser Forecasts: Industrial Total $2,500 Marking Micro Materials Proc. Macro Materials Proc. $2,000 (Revenue US$M) $1,500 $1,000 $500 (1.0% CAGR) $ Source: Laser Markets Research

52 Laser Forecasts: Industrial Industrial CAGR Revenue (US$M) '17 - '22 Marking $560.1 $568.5 $576.8 $587.3 $592.5 $597.9 $ % y-to-y 2% 1% 2% 1% 1% 0% Micro Materials Proc. $1,105.0 $1,298.5 $1,178.8 $1,280.7 $1,396.2 $1,476.5 $1, % y-to-y 18% -9% 9% 9% 6% 6% Macro Materials Proc. $1,492.1 $1,565.2 $1,630.9 $1,702.7 $1,784.4 $1,864.7 $1, % y-to-y 5% 4% 4% 5% 4% 4% TOTAL $3,157.1 $3,432.2 $3,386.5 $3,570.7 $3,773.1 $3,939.1 $4, % y-to-y 8.7% -1.3% 5.4% 5.7% 4.4% 4.3% Source: Laser Markets Research

53 Laser Forecasts: Medical

54 Laser Forecasts: Medical CAGR Revenue (US$M) '17 - '22 Cosmetic & Dermatology $523.1 $617.3 $716.0 $823.4 $938.7 $1,079.5 $1, % y-to-y 18% 16% 15% 14% 15% 15% Ophthalmic $96.8 $103.6 $111.8 $121.9 $132.9 $143.5 $ % y-to-y 7% 8% 9% 9% 8% 8% Surgical $172.4 $189.6 $204.8 $222.0 $237.5 $256.5 $ % y-to-y 10% 8% 8% 7% 8% 8% Dental $45.3 $47.8 $50.1 $53.1 $52.4 $48.7 $ % y-to-y 6% 5% 6% -1% -7% -4% Total $837.5 $958.2 $1,082.7 $1,220.4 $1,361.5 $1,528.2 $1, % y-to-y 14.4% 13.0% 12.7% 11.6% 12.2% 12.5% Source: Laser Markets Research

55 Summary

56 Summary 2016 Was a Good Year Marking +3.1%, Micro +23.5%, Macro +4.5% Medical +12.1% R&D & Military +6.4% Communications +8.2% Entertainment & Displays +25% LIDAR +9%, Flow Cytometry +10%, Spectroscopy +9.5% Worldwide Laser Revenue Grew 6.9%

57 Summary: Forecast for 2017 Displays and Light Shows: +26.4% Micro Material Processing: +17.5% Medical: +14.4% Sensors & Instruments: +8.7% Military: +6.1% Communications: +5.8% Macro: +4.9% R&D: +3.7% Photolithography: +1.6% Marking: +1.5%

58 Thank You Contact: Allen Nogee