E-1. U.S. GDP Growth, U.S. GDP Growth During the Election Year U.S. GDP Growth During the Term of the Incumbent President

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1 February 13, 2012 The AndersonGeckil "pocketbook" model is estimated using data from a variety of sources covering economic conditions and institutional factors in the United States from 1916 to 2008, and predicted economic conditions for The econometric techniques used include standard linear regression as well as more advanced weighted, panel, and robust regression techniques. An extensive description of the model, including summary statistics, is contained in the 2004 article Pocketbook Predictions of Presidential Elections in the journal Business Economics. The model is primarily intended to explain the decisions of voters rather than to predict the outcome of elections. As with any other econometric model, many variables are not included due to lack of data. Furthermore, any prediction using this, or any other econometric model, relies upon factors that cannot be known in advance. List of Exhibits: E1. U.S. GDP Growth, U.S. GDP Growth During the Election Year U.S. GDP Growth During the Term of the President E2. National Unemployment Rate, Unemployment Rate During the Election Year Unemployment Rate During the Term of the President E3. U.S. Inflation Rate (CPI), Inflation ate (CPI) During the Election Year Inflation ate (CPI) During the Term of the President E4. U.S. GDP Growth, U.S. GDP Growth During the Election Year U.S. GDP Growth During the Term of the President E5. National Unemployment Rate, Unemployment Rate During the Election Year Unemployment Rate During the Term of the President E6. U.S. Inflation Rate (CPI), Anderson Economic Group LLC Watertower Place, Suite 100 East Lansing, MI Tel: (517) Fax: (517) East Lansing Chicago

2 page 2 Inflation ate (CPI) During the Election Year Inflation ate (CPI) During the Term of the President E7. National Unemployment Data, National Employment E8. National Unemployment Data, National Employment E9. Actual Election Results and AndersonGeckil Predictions Actual Elections Results v. AndersonGeckil Predictions

3 Exhibit E1. U.S. GDP Growth, U.S. GDP Growth During the Election Year U.S. GDP () () (0.1500) () (0.2500) U.S. GDP Growth During the Term of the President U.S. GDP () (0.4000) (0.6000) Data Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

4 Exhibit E2. National Unemployment Rate, Unemployment Rate During the Election Year Unemployment Unemployment Rate During the Term of the President Unemployment

5 Exhibit E3. U.S. Inflation Rate (CPI), Inflation Rate (CPI) During the Election Year Inflation Rate () () (0.1500) Inflation Rate (CPI) During the Term of the President Inflation Rate () ()

6 Exhibit E4. U.S. GDP Growth, U.S. GDP Growth During the Election Year U.S. GDP U.S. GDP Growth During the Term of the President U.S. GDP Data Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

7 Exhibit E5. National Unemployment Rate, Unemployment Rate During the Election Year Unemployment Unemployment Rate During the Term of the President Unemployment

8 Exhibit E6. U.S. Inflation Rate (CPI), Inflation Rate (CPI) During the Election Year Inflation Rate Inflation Rate (CPI) During the Term of the President Inflation Rate

9 Exhibit E7. National Employment Data, Employees in Thousands National Employment Note: 2011 data is preliminary.

10 Exhibit E8. National Employment Data, Employees in Thousands National Employment Note: 2011 data is preliminary.

11 Exhibit E9. Actual Election Results and AndersonGeckil Predictions 40.0% Actual Election Results v. AndersonGeckil Predictions 30.0% Percentage Vote Difference ( Challenger) 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% AndersonGeckil Pocketbook Model predicts 21 out of 24 presidential elections correctly since 1916, and all presidential elections since Actual Vote Difference AEG Model Prediction 40.0% Gen. Date: 3 Feb 2012