GLOBAL SALMON PRODUCTION
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1 GLOBAL SALMON PRODUCTION Trends in Production and Market Development By Ragnar Nystoyl, Head of Analysis Kontali Analyse Vigo October 1st 2018
2 Agenda Supply Development Farmed Salmonids Wild-caught Salmon Market Development All Salmonids Farmed Atlantic Salmon Outlook Food for thought
3 SUPPLY DEVELOPMENT
4 Farmed Salmonids Supply Development Source: Kontali Analyse
5 Wild-caught Salmonids Supply Development Source: NPAFC, ADFG, DFO, VINRO/TINRO, MAFF, Kontali
6 1000 tonnes WFE The first take-away A. Declining supply growth + 24 % + 7,7 % + 3,7 % CAGR CAGR CAGR Source: Kontali Analyse
7 Farmed Atlantic Salmon From growth to decline - to growth and to decline again Source: Kontali Analyse
8 A long and lasting trend of Price increase Source: FHL, Nasdaq, Urner Barry
9 The second take-away B. A shift in price-level vs. other proteins Source: SNM, France Retail-prices * Price-basket: Salmon vs. Meat vs. Other fish
10 Shortage in supply Strong profitablity Estimated Profits* Major Farmed Salmonid Regions * Combined For Norway, Chile, Scotland / Ireland, North America & Faroe Islands Source: Kontali Analyse
11 MARKET DEVELOPMENT
12 Wild & Farmed Salmonids (Ex. Portion Trout) Main Markets 2017 By Species Source: Various Trade Data, elaboration Kontali Analyse
13 Source: US Census Markets; US Export Value Wild Salmon Increased dependency on China (Re-processing ++)
14 Markets; Russian Export Value Wild Salmon Share to China Higher than for the US Source: Customs Inform
15 Atlantic Salmon Markets Increase by 2 % in Unevenly distributed by regions * China + Hong Kong + Vietnam Source: Kontali Analyse
16 Atlantic Salmon Markets - YTD 2018 Overall volume growth first 3 Quarters: + 8 % * China + Hong Kong + Vietnam Source: Kontali Analyse
17 SUPPLY OUTLOOK
18 Wild Salmon; In-season Estimate E C hg Chinook % Chum % Coho % Pink % Sockeye % Total % E C hg USA % Canada % Japan % Russia % Total % Source: NPAFC, ADFG, DFO, VINRO, MAFF, estimats by Kontali Analyse
19 Large Rainbow Trout Harvest Estimates per country Source: Kontali Analyse
20 Atlantic Salmon Harvest Estimates per country Source: Kontali Analyse
21 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Year-over-Year Growth Atlantic Salmon Market Supply Month by Month Including projections % 20 % 15 % 10 % 5 % 0 % -5 % -10 % -15 % -20 % E Source: Kontali Analyse
22 Feed sales trends; Q1 Q EUROPE YTD: tonnes - 2 % AMERICAS YTD: tonnes + 8 %
23 Harvest Weights (Round weight) Norway vs. Chile Source: Kontali Analyse, Aquabench
24 1000 tonnes WFE Where could future supply growth come from? + 1,7 % + 24 % + 7,7 % + 3,7 % CAGR CAGR CAGR Source: Kontali Analyse
25 Where could future supply growth come from?
26 Where could future supply growth come from? Landbased Salmon Farming Ocean / Offshore Farming Issuing New Capacity Regulatory Change Improved Productivity Better Capacity Utilization
27 To keep up with demand.. All of the above are likely needed! Thank you.
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