Copper Supply. 27 th International Copper Conference Metal Bulletin. Roberto Ecclefield VP Non Refined Copper Sales March 2014, Milan

Transcription

1 Copper Supply 27 th International Copper Conference Metal Bulletin Roberto Ecclefield VP Non Refined Copper Sales March 2014, Milan

2 Review on additional copper production Mining companies and the challenge for delivering new production. Capex Production Forecast, volume and time wise 2

3 Consensus on surplus for Refined Copper Balance (ktf) Analyst 1 Analyst 2 Analyst Sources: Wood Mackenzie, Long Term Copper Outlook Q4 2013; Intierra Monthly Copper Briefing Report Feb.2014; CRU Copper Market Outlook Feb

4 Stocks can reach 1.7 million tons by ,500 Long Term Outlook Q ,000 1,500 1, Exchange Stocks ,118 1,772 1,980 2,014 1,839 1,487 1,484 Balance Exchange Stocks Balance 4

5 5 5

6 6 6

7 In New Projects represented more than 90% of total New Projects 1,000 New Projects (1Q 2010) Konkola Andacollo Salobo I Los Bronces Caserones Esperanza 7

8 Same Projects in Q had delivered half of the forecasted production in their first year and 35% less than forecasted in their first 4 years 1, New Projects (Q4 2013) Konkola Andacollo Salobo Los Bronces Caserones (ex regalito) Esperanza 8

9 Production from projects was not delivered With a focus on those 5 major projects mentioned before, the total average deviation of these past forecasts in 2013 represents f -35% f These figures even do not include projects whose production did not start until 2013, although they were scheduled for For example Q1 2010: 375 kt Cu Toromocho Peru 75 Highly probable Toquepala Peru 80 Highly probable Boleo Mexico 20 Highly probable Galeno Peru 200 Probable 375 9

10 Global Copper Supply 2013 Copper supply forecast from December 2013 for the next 7 years. The outlook remains very optimistic. 22,000 Global Copper Supply ktf (outlook 2013) 21,000 20,000 19,000 18, ,012 1,735 1,936 2,101 2,203 2,213 2,196 17,000 16,000 15, Current Assets New Projects 10

11 A more realistic forecast After adjusting major projects coming until 2016 with the average deviation of 35% calculated before, potential production could be impacted at least by 1.4 million ton less. 1, , ktf Main projects Adjusted main projects 11

12 Adjusted Balance A -35% adjustment, only from major new projects, would have an impact of at least 200k ton in 2014, 400k ton in 2015 and almost 500k in , ktf

13 Adjusted Balance And the stocks should remain in similar levels to the current stock 2,500 Exchange Stocks Balance Adj.Balance 2,000 1,500 1,

14 Pipeline of Major New Projects (Q1 2013) accounts for 90% of total New Projects 1,800 1,600 Sentinel 1,400 Sentinel KOV 1,200 KOV Toromocho 1,000 Toromocho Las Bambas 800 KOV Las Bambas 600 Toromocho S. Gorda S. Gorda S. Gorda DMH 400 DMH DMH Caserones Caserones Caserones KOV DMH Oyu Tolgoi Caserones Oyu Tolgoi Oyu Tolgoi Oyu Tolgoi

15 DMH Project: Codelco making the difference 2010 Forecast 2014 Actual Startup 4Q Q 2013 Production in 2013 ktft 30 kft 33 kft REASONS FOR THIS SUCCESS: - Huge pipeline of Projects all of them in Chile Permanent staff and resources Internal expertise 15

16 Codelco Pipeline of Projects (all located in Chile) DMH MUS$ 3, kfmt/year Chuqui Underground MUS$ 4, kfmt/year El Teniente New Mine Level MUS$ 3, kfmt/year RT Sulphide Phase II MU$ 5, kfmt/year Andina 244 MUS$ 6, kfmt/year Under Construction Feasibility Study 16

17 Copper Supply 27 th International Copper Conference Metal Bulletin Roberto Ecclefield VP Non Refined Copper Sales March 2014, Milan