CONSTRUCTION PROSPECTS2016
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1 CONSTRUCTION PROSPECTS2016 Presented by Lo Yen Lee Director Economic Research Department Building and Construction Authority
2 Review of 2015 Contracts Awarded (in $b) p p: Preliminary
3 Review of 2015 % share 2015p Public Sector 50% Private Sector Demand $27.2b Public: $14.0b Private: $13.2b 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
4 Review of 2015 Commercial $2.2 b TOTAL: $27.2b Industrial $5.4 b Private Residential $3.9 b Public Residential $3.8 b Institutional & Others $6.6 b Civil Engineering $5.4 b Major Projects National Centre for Infectious Diseases A&A to Changi Airport T1 Expansion of KPE/TPE Interchange Contracts for MRT TEL Changi Airport s 3- Runway System (Package 1)
5 The Year Ahead
6 S$billion 2016 Construction Demand 45 Projected 2016: $27b-$34b p 2016f p: Preliminary f: Forecast Contracts Awarded
7 Billion Dollars 2016 Construction Demand Public vs Private 40 Private Sector Public Sector $27-34b Public: $ b p 2016f Private: $ b p: Preliminary f: Upper Bound Forecast
8 2016 Construction Demand Public Residential: $4.5b - $4.7b Demand likely higher $b p 2016f New HDB Flats HDB Upgrading Others New Flats: $2.2b - $2.5b Upgrading: ~$2.0b
9 Uncompleted Pte Res New Sales (units) Private Residential Contracts Awarded ($m) 2016 Construction Demand 9,000 8,000 Private Residential Uncompleted Private Residential New Sales Transactions Private Residential Contracts Awarded ,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2, , Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3Q4e e 0
10 2016 Construction Demand Private Residential: $2.0b - $3.4b Demand to soften further Likely Major Projects 9.1b 8.5b 9.6b 6.5b 3.9b 2b-3.4b Condo at GLS sites eg. Dundee Road, West Coast Vale, Upper Serangoon Road etc p 2016f
11 2016 Construction Demand Commercial: $1.9b - $2.5b Demand likely to remain subdued $b Likely Major Projects Enhancements to retail developments Mixed developments eg. Woods Square, Paya Lebar Central p 2016f
12 2016 Construction Demand Industrial: $4.0b - $5.4b Public sector demand likely higher $b Private Public p 2016f Likely Major Projects Defu Industrial City Bedok Food City JTC s Integrated Logistics Hub PUB s Phase 2 Expansion of Changi WRP
13 2016 Construction Demand Institutional & Others: $3.9b - $5.2b Demand may moderate $b p 2016f Likely Major Projects New National Cancer Centre NTU s Academic Building New State Courts Building at Havelock Square
14 2016 Construction Demand Civil Engineering: $10.7b - $12.9b Demand likely to double $b p 2016f Likely Major Projects Remaining MRT TEL Contracts PUB s sewerage Scheme at various locations CAG s 3-Runway System for Changi Airport (Package 2)
15 2016 Construction Demand Public Residential Private Residential Commercial $4.5b - $4.7b $2.0b - $3.4b $1.9b - $2.5b Industrial Institutional & Others Civil Engineering $4.0b - $5.4b $3.9b - $5.2b $10.7b - $12.9b
16 2016 Construction Demand Civil Engineering 38.7% $27b to $34b Institutional & Others 14.8% Industrial 15.4% Public Residential 15.1% Private Residential 8.8% Commercial 7.2%
17 2016 Construction Demand Public Residential Private Residential Commercial Industrial Institutional & Others Civil Engineering (UB Forecast) 2015 (Prelim) 12.9 S$Billion
18 2016 Construction Demand Public Consultancy Tenders Building Projects 80% 227 Tenders Civil Engineering Projects 20%
19 2016 Construction Demand Public Construction Tenders Up to $14m 55% 420 Tenders $14m - $42m 25% Above $42m 20%
20 Billion Dollars Construction Output Construction Output to moderate to $32b-$34b in Year Demand (Contracts Awarded) Output (Progress Payments)
21 Outlook for Average Annual Demand $26b-$35b $26b-$37b
22 Outlook for Public Sector $16b to $20b Buildings 60% CE 40%
23 Outlook for Major Pipeline Projects New MRT Lines: - Circle Line 6 - Jurong Regional Line - North-East Line Extension - Cross Island Line North-South Expressway Changi Airport Terminal 5 Development (Phase 1) Deep Tunnel Sewerage System (Phase 2)
24 Construction Materials Ready-Mixed Concrete Million m p 2016f Year
25 Construction Materials Precast Concrete per year Million m 3 p: Preliminary f: Forecast 2015p 2016f f
26 Million tonnes Construction Materials Steel Rebars* p 2016f Year *Net imports plus local production (without factoring in stock level)
27 Index (2010=100) BCA Building Works TPI Decrease in TPI p Year
28 Conclusion On-site construction activities to sustain at a steady level 2016 Outlook: Renewed strength from public sector demand will help to maintain the industry s momentum Medium-term outlook: Prospects to be supported by a rich pipeline of public sector construction projects
29 Thank You & Happy New Year!
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