A comparative study of Australian agricultural household financial positions

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1 A comparative study of Australian agricultural household financial positions Will Chancellor & Shiji Zhao Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences Disclaimer: This presentation is based on a working paper. Its contents and any views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of ABARES or the Australian Government.

2 Definitions and explanations Awkward household definitions Farm household or agricultural household Non-agricultural households or all households Permanent income: Long term/life time average Physical and human assets Transitory income: Income that may not persist Deviates from average 2

3 Data and conceptual issues Agricultural households is the reference person a farm owner/manager or a rural employee? Blurred boundary between the farm business and household The concept of well-being Income Wealth Expenditure Farm owner-managers as a proportion of total rural employment (%) Managerial employment in rural Australia Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), Agriculture, cat. no , Canberra; ABS, Agricultural Commodities, cat. no , Canberra; ABS, Characteristics of Australian Farms, cat. no , Canberra; ABS, Labour Force, Australia, Detailed - Electronic Delivery, cat. no , Canberra; ABS, Labour Statistics, Australia, cat. no , Canberra; ABS, The Labour Force, Australia, cat. no , Canberra; Lette (1979)

4 Motivation We want to understand: The balance between permanent and transitory income. The effect of this balance on economic well-being. Income smoothing How agricultural households in Australia compare to those in the US. If average agricultural households are disadvantaged, according to our measure of economic wellbeing 4

5 Some policy background Declining terms of trade (and 1960 s wellbeing studies) Attention shifted to other issues (wool price collapse [ s]; dairy deregulation; climate [ s]) Further deterioration in farmers terms of trade has seen the economic well-being issue resurface [2000s - now] Index of prices paid and prices received (reference year = 100) Output prices received Input prices paid Farmer terms of trade Sources: ABARES 5

6 Australian household comparison Average household gross weekly income and expenditure $2,800 $2,600 $2,400 $2,200 $2,000 $1,800 $1,600 $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $ $2,600,000 $2,400,000 $2,200,000 $2,000,000 $1,800,000 $1,600,000 $1,400,000 $1,200,000 $1,000,000 $800,000 $600,000 $400,000 $200,000 $0 Average household net worth Ag income All income Ag wealth All wealth Ag expend All expend Ag hh MPC: 16.84% All hh MPC: 36.12% Sources: ABS custom datasets 6

7 Farm households in the US Average household weekly income and expenditure US$ US Farm household income (mean) US Farm household expenditure US farm HH MPC: 42.9% Ag hh MPC: 16.84% Source: Data primarily from USDA Several data points derived from Mishra et al and Mishra and Cooper

8 Comparison to the USA (income) $160,000 $140,000 AU agricultural households $160,000 $140,000 US farm households $120,000 $120,000 AU$ annual $100,000 $80,000 $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 $0 -$20, Farm income Non-farm income US$ annual $100,000 $80,000 $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 $ Farm income Non-farm income Sources: Department of Agriculture and Water Resources (2018b), ABARES and United States Department of Agriculture (2018) 8

9 Comparison to the USA (income and wealth) AU agricultural households US farm households AU$ $2,500,000 US$ $2,500,000 $2,000,000 $2,000,000 $1,500,000 $1,500,000 $1,000,000 Ratio of wealth to income: x $1,000,000 Ratio of wealth to income: 6.94 x $500,000 $500,000 $ $ F AU agricultural household income AU agricultural household wealth US total farm household income US farm household wealth Sources: Department of Agriculture and Water Resources (2018b), ABARES and United States Department of Agriculture (2018) 9

10 Household financial assets $, Agricultural households $, All households Value of accounts held with financial institutions (excl. offset accounts) Value of shares (excl. own incorporated business) Total value of trusts(c) Value of own incorporated business (net of liabilities) Value of own unincorporated business (net of liabilities) Total superannuation Value of accounts held with financial institutions (excl. offset accounts) Value of shares (excl. own incorporated business) Total value of trusts(c) Value of own incorporated business (net of liabilities) Value of own unincorporated business (net of liabilities) Total superannuation Source: ABS (2017b), In dollars, adjusted using changes in the Consumer Price Index 10

11 Household income Average gross weekly income $ Agricultural households All households Other regular sources (incl. superannuation) Investment income Own unincorporated business Government pensions and allowances Employee income Source: ABS (2017b), In dollars, adjusted using changes in the Consumer Price Index 11

12 Household expenditure Average weekly expenditure (Real $) Average weekly expenditure by household category ( ) $300 $275 $250 $225 $200 $175 $150 $125 $100 $75 $50 $25 $0 Current housing costs Domestic fuel and power Food and non-alcoholic beverages Alcoholic beverages Tobacco products Clothing and footwear Household furnishings and equipment Household services and operation Medical care and health expenses Transport Communication Recreation Education Personal care Miscellaneous goods and services Agricultural households All households Source: ABS (2017c and 2017d) Note: Solid bars indicate basic consumption categories and dotted bars indicate discretionary consumption categories.

13 Conclusion Average Australian agricultural household financial positions Low MPC and high asset position Focus on the farm business. Detailed data need to better understand this important issue

14 agriculture.gov.au/abares

Exhibit #MH-156. ELECTRIC OPERATIONS (MH10-2) PROJECTED OPERATING STATEMENT (In Millions of Dollars) For the year ended March 31 REVENUES

Exhibit #MH-156. ELECTRIC OPERATIONS (MH10-2) PROJECTED OPERATING STATEMENT (In Millions of Dollars) For the year ended March 31 REVENUES PROJECTED OPERATING STATEMENT 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 REVENUES General Consumers at approved rates 1,194 1,223 1,235 1,254 1,265 1,279 1,296 1,307 1,320 1,336 additional * - 42