UKRAINIAN GRAIN. President Nikolay Gorbachov

Transcription

1 UKRAINIAN GRAIN President Nikolay Gorbachov 1

2 Population 42,5 mln The area is km² The largest area in the country is from those whose territory is completely lying in Europe Ukraine borders with seven countries: on Belarus in the north, Poland, Slovakia and Hungary - in the west, Romania and Moldova - in the southwest, Russia in the east and north-east. In the south and south-east it is washed by the Black and Azov seas. 2

3 Map of Worldwide Croplands As we can see, Ukraine is situated at the most valuable geographical location as for the productive lands and best yields

4 Distance between extreme points Coastline: miles (2 782 km) Land Area: (land) sq miles ( sq km) (water) sq miles ( sq km) (TOTAL) sq miles ( sq km) 4

5 Distribution of agricultural land in Ukraine Area thd ha Total 42,7 mln ha Land shares, 28 million hectares Agricultural land in state and communal ownership, 11 million hectares Not agricultural land in state and communal ownership 1,5 million hectares Agricultural land Forests and other forest areas Other SHARE OF TOTAL COUNTRY LAND % Agricultural land Forests and other forest areas Other 11.6% 17.6% For conducting of commodity of agri production (except for shares), 1,5 million hectares 70.8% 5

6 WHEAT Yield

7 WHEAT Yield changes vs , in % season climate tendency 7

8 GRAIN PRODUCTION AND EXPORT ,000 90,000 85,168 82,303 82,535 80,000 74,489 49,108 50,000 71,333 47,727 69,387 46,068 70,000 42,880 63,591 61,401 40,000 38,703 60,000 35,244 51,630 51,984 50,000 47,325 30,000 28,376 41,930 40,964 41,652 25,522 39,591 39,094 40,000 23,103 23,456 export production Linear (export) 20,000 34,237 30,000 10,000 9,521 11,235 24,863 11,640 13,976 11,096 14,936 20,000 3,654 5,404 10, /08/2018 CONFIDENTIEL

9 PRODUCTION AND EXPORT EVOLUTION 120, , , ,000 77,179 69, ,011 60, ,777 43,844 40,000 36,128 31,592 28,411 29,116 23,910 23,628 25,248 22,925 24,080 24,790 21,268 19,455 20,000 16,995 10, seeded thd.ha Crop Domestic consumption Export yield Linear (Export) Marketing year Yield, t/h Changers, in % , , , , ,99 19 Sown aria, M hec , , , , ,248 7 Domestic consumption , , , , ,193 8

10 GRAIN PRODUCTION AND EXPORT thd. mt 17/18 vs 18/19 90,000 80,000 84,313 +4% 80,046 +5% 70,000 60,000 60,599 58,061 +2,5% +2,2% 50,000 40,000 41,250 40,250 46,920 45,920 30,000 20,000 10, Crop (without oilseeds) Export (without oilseeds) Crop ALL GRAINS Export ALL GRAINS / / /2019

11 WHEAT thd. mt 17/18 vs 18/19 30,000 25,000 24,472 26,459 20,000 15,000 16,500 17,000 10,000 5,000 0 Export 2018/ /2018 Crop 11

12 BARLEY thd. mt 17/18 vs 18/19 10,000 9,000 8,602 8,000 7,000 7,161 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,900 4,600 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Export 2018/ /2018 Crop 12

13 CORN thd. mt 17/18 vs 18/19 35,000 30,000 28,966 25,000 23,000 20,000 19,000 18,500 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Export 2018/ /2018 Crop 13

14 GRAIN TRANSPORTATION TO THE PORTS - 67% wagons - 5% barges - 28% trucks 14 02/08/2018 CONFIDENTIEL

15 GRAIN SUPPLY CHAIN CAPACITY * prior to limitations Production ~ 85 mmt Transport ~ 45 mmt Export ~ 45 mmt 12,6 mmt ~28%* Inland storage capacity ~800 silos = 40 mmt 5,5 USD per t/100 km Port storage capacity ~ 3,5 mmt Transshipment capacity ~ 60 mmt 30 mmt ~ 67% rw cars 3,3 USD per t/100 km 2,2mmt ~ 5% USD per t 15 1,8 USD per t/100 km

16 50 thd km

17

18 Waterways The total length of the navigable rivers of Ukraine, used as waterways, is km 18

19 TOP PORTS FOR GRAIN EXPORT in 2017/18 NAME OF THE PORT VOLUME, TONS FROM TOTAL, % Nikolaev ,9 Yuzhniy ,1 Chornomorsk ,4 Odessa ,3 Ochakov ,5 Kherson ,9 Berdyansk ,1 Mariupol ,5 Reni ,990 Izmail ,3 Kiliya ,02 Dnipro ,05 Bilhorod ,005 TOTAL

20 EXPORT INFRASTRUCTURE BY PORTS 2017/18 Port Terminal Storage capacity Storage capacity Export 2017/2018 NIKOLAEV ODESSA YUZHNY Nibulon State Food Bunge Nika Tera COFCO Bangladesh Olvia MTP Other ADM Bruklin Kiev CHS/Olympex State Food Novotech - Porto-san Others TIS Borivazh MV Cargo Glencore/IZT Turnover, times per season , , ,1* MTP CHERNOMORSK CHERNOMORSK Risoil ,6 Trans-Service TBT/ Kernel sea trade port KHERSON port-elevator Dnipro Cargo ltd ,3 Other other BERDYANSK New Khortysya ,4 sea trade port OCHAKOV U-port ,2 MARIUPOL Ukrtransagro ,7 OTHER Other TOTAL

21 TOP EXPORTERS 21 COMPAY EXPORT VOLUME, tons MARKET SHARE, % Louis Dreyfus ,6 Nibulon ,4 Kernel Trade ,8 COFCO ,0 Bunge ,6 ADM ,5 Cargill ,7 Glencore ,0 Black Sea Commodities ,5 DPZKU ,3 Total COMPAY EXPORT VOLUME, tons MARKET SHARE, % LDC NIBULON INERCO ADM ,3 BUNGE ,9 CARGILL ,5 COFCO STATE (SFGCU) ,9 GLENCORE ,8 ENGELHART ,4 OTHERS ,9 TOTAL COMPAY EXPORT VOLUME, tons MARKET SHARE, % NIBULON ,5 LDC ,3 INERCO ,6 BUNGE ,3 ADM ,2 GLENCORE ,6 STATE ,1 (SFGCU) CARGILL ,3 NOBLE ,8 CHS ,8 OTHERS ,8 TOTAL

22 TOP WORLD EXPORTERS 2017/18 22

23 FORECAST EXPORT PER MONTH, m. tons 6,000 5,000 4,000 4,388 4,177 4,085 4,855 4,785 3,940 5,189 5,522 4,310 4,261 4, ,262 4, ,012 3, ,000 2,000 1,949 1,786 2,550 2,000 1,000 0 july august september october november december january february march april may june

24 Top destinations 2017/18 Destinations Total Market share, % Egypt ,0 China ,7 Spain ,3 Netherlands ,6 Italy ,0 Turkey ,9 Indonesia ,6 Saudi Arabia ,8 Israel ,4 Bangladesh ,2 Tunisia ,9 Philippines ,7 India ,6 Total

25 TOP Destinations, Wheat, 2017/ Wheat, mln t Wheat, mln t 25 total 16,2 mln t

26 TOP Destinations, Barley, 2017/ Saudi Arabia (SA) China (CN) Libya (LY) Turkey (TR) Barley, mln t Spain (ES) Israel (IL) Barley, mln t Iran (IR) Tunisia Algeria Jordan (TN) (DZ) (JO) 26 Total 4,2 mln t

27 TOP Destinations, Corn, 2017/18 3 Corn, mln t Corn, mln t 27 Total 15,1 mln t

28 TOP Destinations, Rapeseed 2017/ Rapeseed, mln t Rapeseed, mln t 28 Total 2,1 mln t

29 BOTTLENECKS WAGONS, DIS.CAPACITY, STATIONS Loading capacity mt/day Rw capacity mt/day Port stations capacity ~ mt/day* Transshipment capacity mt/day Discharge capacity ~ mt/day** *All types of cargo **Grain wagons 29 02/08/2018 CONFIDENTIEL

30 Number of wagons (incl. State and private) Січень Лютий Березень Квітень Травень Червень Липень Серпень Вересень Жовтень Листопад Грудень /08/2018 CONFIDENTIEL

31 Marketing year Average loaded number of wagons per month Average transported by RW per month, ml tons Average export per month, ml tons * * ,000,000 76,923 6,000,000 5,000,000 51,925 49,814 5,000,000 4,000,000 39,089 41,819 3,237,921 3,000,000 3,375,103 2,540,769 2,718,262 2,000,000 1,000, средний перевезенный тоннаж в месяц, тонн средний експорт в месяц, млн тонн среднее кол-во вагонов в месяц погружено, шт 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 TRANSPORTATION AND EXPORT GRAIN EVOLUTION 31 02/08/2018 CONFIDENTIEL

32 WORLD IMPORT DYNAMICS FORECAST, thd tons OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook, PRODUCT IMPORT DYNAMICS, 2016 / Wheat % thd tons Corn % Others % Rice % Year Wheat Corn Others Rice 32

33 Thanks for your attention UKRAINIAN GRAIN ASSOCIATION