Turkish Grain Update 2017/18
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1 Turkish Grain Update 2017/18 19 April 2018 Faik Genç AgriPro Limited
2 Main Topics 1. Turkey 2. Grains Supply & Demand 3. Turkish Wheat Product Exports 4. Russia-Turkey Trade War 5. Conclusions
3 Turkey
4 Turkey Fact File Population: 80.5 million (80.8m/CIA m/IMF) Population Growth*: 0.52% GDP PPP*: US$ 2,249 billion (13th globally) GDP per capita PPP*: US$ 27,630 (2017 est.) GDP Growth*: 7.4% (2017) 2 nd OECD after Ireland Exchange rate: US$ 1 = 4.02 Turkish Lira Unemployment: 11% (2017) Annual inflation: 11.92% (2017 consumer) Source : CIA WorldFactbook November 2018
5 Turkey Fact File Age Structure*: % % % % 65 & over % Median Age*: 30.9 Fertility Rate*: 2.01 born/woman* Urban Population*: 74.4% Rate of urbanisation*: 1.54% Source : CIA WorldFactbook November 2017
6 Turkey Fact File Total Land: Agriculural Land: 49.7% Arable Land*: 26.7% Permanent Crops*: 4% Irrigated Land*: * CIA Data (November 2017) x IMF Data (April 2016) 783,562 sq km 65,000 sq km (AgriPro est.) Source : IMF/CIA WorldFactbook, November 2017
7 Turkey Major Crops (2017/18 season) Wheat: Sugar beat: Corn: Barley: Oilseeds: c. 22 million tonnes ( 3.8 m durum) c. 16 million tonnes c. 6 million tonnes c. 7.5 million tonnes 2.9 million tonnes Source: AgriPro 2017
8 Grains Supply & Demand
9 Turkish Grain Production 2017/18 Wheat : 21.5 million tonnes Corn : 5.7 million tonnes Barley : 7.2 million tonnes Paddy : million tonnes Others : million tonnes TOTAL : million tonnes Source: AgriPro 2018
10 Turkish Grain Production 2017/18 Wheat Corn Barley Paddy Others Barley 20% 2.5% 2% Corn 16% Wheat 60% * 60% of all Turkish Grain Production is Wheat Source: AgriPro 2018
11 Wheat Production by Region 14% 8% 33% 9% 5% 10% 19% * Central Anatolia is the biggest Wheat region with 33% Source: AgriPro 2018
12 TR Wheat Production & Consumption ,1 21 Production 22,6 Consumption 20,6 21, / / / / /18* Source: TÜİK/Turkish Grain Board * 2018
13 Turkish Wheat Product Exports
14 Turkish Wheat Flour Exports (tonnes) 4 000, , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,000 0,000 93, , , ,514551, , , , , , , , , ,278 Source: Ministry of Economy 2018
15 Turkish Wheat Flour Exports - Turkish wheat flour exports reached 3.5 million tonnes in Export value reached $ billion. - For 3.5 million tonnes of flour exports 5 million tonnes of wheat is required. - Turkey imported 3.3 million tonnes of wheat in million tonnes of Turkish wheat was used for export in Source: Ministry of Economy 2018
16 Turkish Wheat Flour Exports Turkey is the #1 Wheat Flour Exporting Country in the World! million tonnes in 2017 worth $1.052 billion 1. Turkey $ 1.052m 2. Kazakhstan $ 505m 3. Germany $ 300m 4. Argentina $ 189m 5. France $ 178m Source: OEC 2018
17 Turkish Wheat Flour Exports World Wheat Flour Trade = $ 4.6 billion TURKEY KAZAKHSTAN GERMANY ARGENTINA FRANCE USA PAKISTAN ITALY CANADA UK OTHERS 34.70% 23.00% 2,50% 3,30% 3,40% 3,80% 3,80% 3,90% 4,10% 6,50% 11,00% * Turkey accounts for 23% of all Wheat Flour Trade Source: OEC 2018
18 Turkish Wheat Flour Exports Top 10 By Country 1. Iraq 40.1% 2. Sudan 16.2% 3. Syria 10.7% 4. Angola 3.8% 5. Phillippines 2.5% 6. Madagascar 2.5% 7. Indonesia 1.9% 8. Benin 2.2% 9. Israel 1.2% 10.China 1.1% Source: Ministry of Economy 2018
19 Turkish Wheat Flour Exports Largest Exporters - Erişler Gıda (Thrace) - Beşler Un (Gaziantep) - Doruk Gıda (Thrace & Ankara) - Ulusoy Un (Thrace & Samsun) - Azim Un (Mardin) - Acarsan Gıda (Gaziantep) - Ulaş Gıda (Thrace) - Eksun Gıda (Thrace) - Mersin Un (Mersin) - Intermill Un (Ankara) Source: AgriPro 2018
20 Turkish Pasta Exports (tonnes) 1 200, , , , , , , , , , , ,000 0,000 57,715 11,909 44, , , , , , , ,477 76,288 34,211 69,034 20,800 Source: Ministry of Economy 2018
21 Turkish Pasta Exports - Turkish Pasta Exports reached million tonnes in Total Export value reached $ million Source: Ministry of Economy 2018
22 Turkish Pasta Exports Largest Exporters - Oba Makarna (Gaziantep/Sakarya) - Arbel (Mersin) - Beşler Makarna - Nuhun Ankara Makarnası (Ankara) - Doğa Makarna - Tat Gıda - Mutlu Makarna - Selva Gıda Source: AgriPro 2018
23 Turkish Biscuit Exports (tonnes) 500, , , , , , , , ,000 50,000 0,000 65,211 17,827 26,989 41, , , , , ,492 82,209 97, , , , , , , , , , , ,180 Source: Ministry of Economy 2018
24 Turkish Biscuit Exports - Turkish Biscuit Exports reached 442,633 tonnes in Total Export value reached $ million Source: Ministry of Economy 2018
25 Turkish Biscuit Exports Largest Exporters - Ülker (Istanbul) - Anı Bisküvi (Karaman) - Azra Bisküvi (Karaman) - Bifa Bisküvi (Karaman) - Eti Bisküvi (Eskişehir) Source: AgriPro 2018
26 Turkish Bulgur (cracked wheat) Exports (tonnes) 300, , , , , , , , , , ,000 50,000 0,000 35,107 15,710 19,342 20,729 18,971 68,551 36,106 22,348 30,548 10,500 71,009 56, , ,678 Source: Ministry of Economy 2018
27 Turkish Bulgur (cracked wheat) Exports - Turkish Bulgur Exports reached 257,297 tonnes in 2017,. - Total Export value reached $ million Source: Ministry of Economy 2018
28 Turkish Semolina Exports (tonnes) , ,349 49, , ,042 21,061 19,036 16,514 15,610 11,195 12,089 28,493 26,659 21,857 28,025 24,281 29,621 0 Source: Ministry of Economy 2018
29 Turkish Semolina Exports - Turkish Semolina Exports reached tonnes in Total Export value reached $ 22.6 million - «Oba Makarna» does 60% of all Turkish semolina exports. Source: Ministry of Economy 2018
30 Turkish Total Wheat Products Exports - Turkish wheat product exports reached 5.3 million tonnes in 2017, including Wheat Flour, Pasta, Semolina & Bulgur. - Total export value reached $ 2.6 billion. - This corresponded to 7.4 million tonnes of Wheat. Source: Ministry of Economy 2018
31 Russia - Turkey Trade War? Russian Grain & Sun products vs. Turkish Tomatos
32 Russia - Turkey Trade War - With trade surplus to Turkey, Russia wins! - (a surplus of US$1.2m vs Turkey) - With trade surplus to the world, Turkey wins! - (re-exporting Russian wheat as «flour» (3.5 million mt & US$ 1.1 bn) to the world. No losers!
33 Conclusions Turkish total wheat production stands 21.5 million tonness for 2017/18 season. Consumption inturkey is estimated as 19 million tonnes for 2017/18. Total Turkish wheat imports has been 3.3 million tonnes in Turkish wheat flour exports have been million tonnes in2017. Total Turkish wheat product exports was 5.3 million tonnes in year This corresponded to $2.6 billion in revenues and 7.4 million tonnes of wheat.
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