Arctic Mining, Shipping and Oil and Gas

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1 Arctic Mining, Shipping and Oil and Gas AON-HD Team Meeting Leverett,, Massachusetts September 7, 28 Sharman Haley Professor of Economics and Public Policy Institute of Social and Economic Research University of Alaska Anchorage 1

2 Overview: work in progress! Show and Tell Alaska O&G, Mining Employment [Shipping] Canada and Norway mining Data we have and don t t have Plan Recommendations? Drivers and relationships 2

3 Alaska Mining 3

4 Value of Alaska Metal Mining as a Share of US Production 14.% $25, Alaska's Share of US Metal Production 12.% 1.% 8.% 6.% 4.% 2.% $2, $15, $1, $5, Value of Metal Mining Production ($millions).% $ US Metal Value Alaska Metal Value Alaska's Share of Metal Mining 4

5 Alaskan Gold Contribution Years 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Metric Tons Gold Percent AK Gold US Total Percentage

6 Alaska Mining Expenditures, Exploration Expenditures Development Expenditures Millions of dollars

7 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Mining Claims in Alaska 7 Acres claimed Total new claims Total active claims

8 Metals Prices Gold and Silver prices Zinc price Silver Price Gold prices per ounce Zinc Price ($/lb)

9 Oil and Gas 9

10 Alaska and US Crude Oil Production, on and offshore 35, 3.% 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 25.% 2.% 15.% 1.% 5.%.% Jan-81 Jan-83 Jan-85 Jan-87 Jan-89 Jan-91 Jan-93 Jan-95 Jan-97 Jan-99 Jan-1 Jan-3 Jan-5 Jan-7 US Total on & offshore Alaska Total on and off shore Alaska as a % of US 1 Thousands of Barrels

11 Baker-Hughes Count of Active Drilling Rigs Number of Rigs in US Number of Rigs in Alaska Total Alaska Total US

12 Employment Employment in Alaska Mining and Oil & Gas Average Annual Employment 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Alaska Total Mining O&G 12

13 Change in Employment, Alaska Total 33.4% 1 Mining 75.% O&G 11.7%.% 2.% 4.% 6.% 8.% Percent Change 13

14 Marine Shipping 14

15 Ø 15

16 Canada Mineral Production Value in Arctic Canada 2,5, 2,, 1,5, 1,, 5, 1.% 9.% 8.% 7.% 6.% 5.% 4.% 3.% 2.% 1.%.% Value in millions of Canadian dollars Arcitc Value as a Percent of Total Canada Arctic total Percent of Canadian Total

17 Canadian Mining Expenditure Arctic C A Total Percentage 35% 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % Expenditure (millions of dollars)

18 Mineral Exploration Commitments in Greenland 18 Millions of Danish Kroner

19 Norwegian Metal Ores % 2 1.% 15 8.% 6.% 1 4.% 5 2.%.% Years )Arctic Production (Nordland Norwegian Production Total 19 Arctic Share

20 Production of Metal Ores in Arctic Norway Thousands of tonnes of concentrate

21 Industrial Minerals-Norway Ktonn % 4% 35% 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% Percent Arctic % Years Norwegian Production Arctic C ontribution Arctic Share of Total 21

22 Sweden Iron Ore Production in Sweden Sweden Norbotten Tonnes of Concentrate

23 Swedish Mining Employment 8, 58% 7, 56% 6, 5, 54% 4, 52% 3, 5% 2, 1, 48% 46% Norbotten Sweden Percent 23

24 Finnish Metal Mining 45.% 4,, Lapland's Share of Finnish Metal Ore Production 4.% 35.% 3.% 25.% 2.% 15.% 1.% 5.% 3,5, 3,, 2,5, 2,, 1,5, 1,, 5, Metal Ore Production (tons).% Finland Lapland Lapland's Share of Metal Mining 24

25 What we have Alaska: , production, value, and employment statewide, plus major mines; claims statewide Canada: ( in progress), value [Iceland has no mines] Greenland: claims, exploration Norway: production, claims for Troms, Nordland, Finnmark, Svalbard Sweden: production Finland: production 25

26 What is missing Canada: employment Greenland: ; breakouts by place or region; production, value, employment Norway: 25; Norway total; value Sweden: claims ; 98; employment by region; value Finland: ; 96; value, claims, employment Russia: everything! 26

27 Next six months Cleaning, formatting & documentation Analysis and conversions for consistency White paper for ICASS & Arctic Council Employment data O&G data Shipping data Bering Straits 27

28 Recommendations for filling gaps Convention on employment statistics Convention on shipping statistics 28

29 Key drivers of change High prices Declining production in mature regions Political drive for development & revenue in newly self-governing regions Climate warming improves access Longer window changes economics? 29

30 Data required to quantify relationships? 3

31 Points for discussion Challenges for a flat file What to measure: resource vs production vs value, leading and lagging Geography: state vs region vs place Maps Local development thesis 31

32 Geographic scope = AHDR 32

Alaska s Natural Resource Commodities: A 10-Year Outlook

Alaska Resources Development Council November 14-15, 2018 Alaska s Natural Resource Commodities: A 10-Year Outlook David R. Hammond, Ph.D. Principal Mineral Economist Hammond International Group Commodities