ANZ Resources, Infrastructure and Cross Boarder Trade with China

Transcription

1 ANZ Resources, Infrastructure and Cross Boarder Trade with China Shane Lee Senior Economist 6 July 2011

2 Nature of Infrastructure Cycles Global infrastructure cycle Cycles tend to be long. Most recent upswing began in the late 1990s. 1. Usually cycle is driven by under or over investment relative to population growth. 2. Strong urbanisation is driving demand for Asian infrastructure investment. Putting upward pressure on commodity prices. In Australia, 1. and 2. are coming together to drive the domestic cycle. Managing the impact of the infrastructure and mining upswing on the economy is the challenge for policymakers. 1

3 US infrastructure cycle began picking up in the last 1990s US Infrastructure Investment and the Real Copper Price $US/ lb % Copper price (LHS) Infrastructure investment (% GP- RHS) NB. The real copper price is calculated based to 1985 US dollars. Infrastructure investment is expenditure on roads and highways, rail, airports, hospitals, telecommunications, electricity and energy. 0.5 Source: atastream, US BEA and ANZ 2

4 Water, roads and telecommunications should benefit Global Expenditure Forecasts (average annual, $USbn) %GP %GP Cumulative Roads ,370 Rail ,120 Telecomms(1) ,170 Electricity (2) ,210 Water (1), (3) ,090 Total ,960 (1) estimates for 2005,2015,2025 (2) Transmission and distribution only (3) Only OEC countries, Russia, China, India, Brazil Sources: OEC 3

5 US infrastructure investment has generally declined since the 1970 s. Some sectors have picked up, but it hasn t yet improved asset quality. % US: Public and Private Investment as a % of GP % US: Public and Private Investment as a % of GP Highways and roads Power Petroleumn Water & sewerage Telecommunications Hospitals Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Australia: Public and Private Investment as a % of GP % Energy Highways and roads Power Rail Airports Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Australia: Public and Private Investment as a % of GP % Telecommunications Rail Water & sewerage Sources: ABS 4 Source: ABS

6 Australian infrastructure: Aging and the impact of commodity prices espite $425bn ($A395bn in infrastructure only) past 4 years age of capital stock still higher than average since 1960 (18.6 years). Implies another $A587bn in infrastructure spending over 6 years. Some financial impediments (State Government balance sheets, bank and corporate debt still a little expensive) Skilled labour the biggest problem. Australia: Age of Capital Stock (Structures ex wellings) Australia: (Structures ex wellings) Real Investment growth and epreciation Years % epreciation Investment Source: ABS 5

7 Quality of infrastructure consistent with Age and lack of investment over longer term. (Engineers Report Cards) United States Australia Asia Aviation Bridges ams rinking water 2009 C C B+ B- B+ Roads Rail Ports Airports 2010 C + B- B C C- C+ B 2001 n/r - B B 4.8 energy Hazardous Waste Navigable Waterways Public Parks & Recreation Rail Roads Schools Security Solid Waste Transit Waste Water + - C- C- - I C+ - - C- C- I C+ + - C+ C- C- C Potable Water Waste Water Storm Water Irrigation Electricity Gas Telecomm s B- B- C C C+ B- C B- C+ C- C- C+ C+ n/r C C- - B- C B Source: Engineers Australia, American Society of Civil Engineers, World Economic Forum Australia and the US are reported A-E (excellent poor). Asia is reported 0-7 6

8 Long run investment requirements: Advanced economies Asset Investment % GP Roads 1.0 Electricity 0.5 Water Supply & Sewerage 0.3 Telecommunications 0.5 Rail 0.2 Total 2.5 7

9 Emerging economies: Quality generally poor, but Hong Kong, Korea, Malaysia and Singapore good. No. 6 Asian Infrastructure Quality Bangladesh China Hong Kong Republic of Korea India Pakistan Sri Lanka Cambodia Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietman United Kingdom United States Australia New Zealand Source: World Economic Forum 2009 Global Competitiveness Report. 1 = extremely underdeveloped, 2 extensive by international standards. * ata seems to have upward bias when compared to Engineers Report Cards and public opinion in both Australia and the US 8

10 Absolute change in population more important than urbanisation rates Urban Population (m) Change (m) Bangladesh China Hong Kong Republic of Korea India Pakistan Sri Lanka Cambodia Indonesia Lao People s emocratic Republic Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam United Kingdom United States Australia New Zealand Source: United Nations

11 Thermal Coal usage (tonne/capita) Iron Ore usage (kg/capita) Oil usage (bbls/capita) Natural Gas usage (kcm/capita) China consumption of key commodities Oil 70 US Sth Korea EU 40 Taiwan 30 Japan 20 China Russia 10 Brazil 0 India 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 Natural gas Russia US 2.0 EU 1.5 Sth Korea China Taiwan Japan India 0.0 Brazil 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 Real GP per capita (US$) Real GP per capita (US$) China Thermal coal Sth Korea Taiwan Japan EU US 1,200 1, China Russia Taiwan Iron ore Sth Korea Japan 0.6 Russia Brazil India ,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 Real GP per capita (US$) 400 EU Brazil 200 US 0 India 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 Real GP per capita (US$) Source: atastream 10

12 Index, 2003 = 100 Australia: High commodity prices means record high terms of trade and surging income Terms of trade since UK returns to the gold standard Korean war drives boom in Australian wool Australian begins exporting coal to Japan Expected peak in Sep-11 * Australian gold rush (1850s s) Start of WWI; drop in Australian wheat production Stock market crash; beginning of Great epression 1973 oil shock US ends restrictions on private gold ownership Long-run average in ToT 1979 oil crisis UK leaves 'revised' gold Creation of the Australian Wheat Board Bretton Woods system established Bretton Woods system collapses Period of resource price pessimism - 'Prebisch-Singer' hypothesis Collapse of LTCM; BoE sells almost half of the UK's gold reserves Source: RBA 11

13 Australia has huge potential in LNG supply Qatar Indonesia Algeria Australia Malaysia Nigeria Trinidad Egypt Oman Russia Brunei Yemen Papua New Guinea Abu habi Angola Peru Norway Equatorial Guinea United States Libya Iran Venezuela Canada Mauritania Iraq Brazil Source: Gas Matters Existing and Proposed Global LNG Supply to 2020 Existing Commited Proposed Million tonnes per year 12

14 A surge in mining, energy and infrastructure investment is getting underway in Australia infrastructure is driving commodities $bn Major Project Investment: Infrastructure, Mining and Energy Q Q Sources: Access Economics and ANZ 13

15 Australia well positioned with coal supply Global Coal Export Supply Total World 2010 Thermal 716mt Coking 248mt Russia Canada Poland Khazakhstan US China Vietnam Venezuela Indonesia Colombia Sth Africa Australia La-Nina Impact Source: ANZ, AME, Wood Mackenzie 14

16 India s port infrastructure is catching up with China s, but in coal receiving rather than iron ore India & China Coal/Port Map Coal deposits Capesize Ports snew Capesize Ports UMPPs (4GW) High consuming regions Coal deposits \Capesize Ports ] High consuming regions Source: ANZ, AME, Wood Mackenzie 15

17 Meat consumption per capita Agricultural exports the next wave for the terms of trade? Pork, chicken Meat and consumption beef consumption and GP per capita per capita 150 kg/person/yr 125 USA 100 Italy 75 Singapore 50 China South Korea Japan 25 India Real GP (at PPP) per capita 1990 US$000 Source: ANZ, Bloomberg, atastream 16

18 % change GP growth is likely to be weaker due to floods etc, but rebound stronger into GP Q/Q change Australian GP growth GP Y/Y change Forecasts Source: ABS and ANZ 17

19 Structural change in the economy Structural change is providing a net stimulus to Australia. Higher interest rates and tight fiscal policy are important. Inflation targeting the key anchor. Flexible exchange rate helps. In past terms of trade rises the currency wasn t flexible. More flexible labour market allows the inflation target to be more easily met. After the investment is over production should rise. Productivity is sacrificed in the short term, but it rebounds in the longer term. Housing, consumer spending, manufacturing, tourism education services all weaken to allow the investment. However, the business cycle is not dead. Australia is susceptible to a major Chinese slowdown. 18

20 China is now Australia s No. 1 trade partner Export destinations Goods ($bn) Services ($bn) Total ($bn) % share 1 China Japan India Korea US UK New Zealand Singapore Taiwan Indonesia All countries Import sources Goods ($bn) Services ($bn) Total ($bn) % share 1 China US Japan Singapore Thailand Germany UK New Zealand Malaysia Korea All countries Source: ANZ, ABS 19

21 y/y % ch y/y % ch Australian and Chinese Economic Growth correlation coefficient = correlation coefficient = China Australia (rhs) Source: ABS, Bloomberg 20

22 Summary 1. Under investment relative to population growth is driving the pickup in infrastructure investment in advanced economies. 2. Strong urbanisation is driving demand for Asian infrastructure investment. Putting upward pressure on commodity prices. In Australia, 1. and 2. are coming together to drive the domestic cycle. Australian economic growth has decoupled from growth in the US to some extent. This structural shift will continue. Managing the impact of this transition is the key challenge for policymakers. 21

23 isclaimer Important Notice Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Limited is represented in: AUSTRALIA by: Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Limited ABN ANZ Centre Melbourne, Level 9, 833 Collins Street, ocklands Victoria 3008, Australia Telephone Fax UNITE KINGOM by: Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Limited ABN Bank Street, Canary Wharf, London, E14 5EJ, United Kingdom Telephone Fax UNITE STATES OF AMERICA by: ANZ Securities, Inc. is a member of FINRA ( and registered with the SEC. 277 Park Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10172, United States of America Tel: Fax: NEW ZEALAN by: ANZ National Bank Limited Level 7, 1-9 Victoria Street, Wellington, New Zealand Telephone This document ( document ) is distributed to you in Australia and the United Kingdom by Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Limited ABN ( ANZ ) and in New Zealand by ANZ National Bank Limited ( ANZ NZ ). ANZ holds an Australian Financial Services licence no and is authorised in the UK and regulated by the Financial Services Authority ( FSA ). This document is being distributed in the United States by ANZ Securities, Inc. ( ANZ S ) (an affiliated company of ANZ), which accepts responsibility for its content. Further information on any securities referred to herein may be obtained from ANZ S upon request. Any US person(s) receiving this document and wishing to effect transactions in any securities referred to herein should contact ANZ S, not its affiliates. This document is being distributed in the United Kingdom by ANZ solely for the information of its eligible counterparties and professional clients (as defined by the FSA). It is not intended for and must not be distributed to any person who would come within the FSA definition of retail clients. Nothing here excludes or restricts any duty or liability to a customer which ANZ may have under the UK Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 or under the regulatory system as defined in the Rules of the FSA. This document is issued on the basis that it is only for the information of the particular person to whom it is provided. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any recipient for any purpose. This document does not take into account your personal needs and financial circumstances. Under no circumstances is this document to be used or considered as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy. In addition, from time to time ANZ, ANZ NZ, ANZ S, their affiliated companies, or their respective associates and employees may have an interest in any financial products (as defined by the Australian Corporations Act 2001), securities or other investments, directly or indirectly the subject of this document (and may receive commissions or other remuneration in relation to the sale of such financial products, securities or other investments), or may perform services for, or solicit business from, any company the subject of this document. If you have been referred to ANZ, ANZ NZ, ANZ S or their affiliated companies by any person, that person may receive a benefit in respect of any transactions effected on your behalf, details of which will be available upon request. The information herein has been obtained from, and any opinions herein are based upon, sources believed reliable. The views expressed in this document accurately reflect the author s personal views, including those about any and all of the securities and issuers referred to herein. The author however makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness and the information should not be relied upon as such. All opinions and estimates herein reflect the author s judgement on the date of this document and are subject to change without notice. No part of the author's compensation was, is or will directly or indirectly relate to specific recommendations or views expressed about any securities or issuers in this document. ANZ, ANZ NZ, ANZ S, their affiliated companies, their respective directors, officers, and employees disclaim any responsibility, and shall not be liable, for any loss, damage, claim, liability, proceedings, cost or expense ( Liability ) arising directly or indirectly (and whether in tort (including negligence), contract, equity or otherwise) out of or in connection with the contents of and/or any omissions from this communication except where a Liability is made non-excludable by legislation. Where the recipient of this publication conducts a business, the provisions of the Consumer Guarantees Act 1993 (NZ) shall not apply. 22