BRICS: Two Geopolitical Aspects
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1 BRICS: Two Geopolitical Aspects Octavio Amorim Neto Brazilian School of Public and Business Administration (EBAPE) Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV), Rio de Janeiro Presented at the seminar BRICS: Challenges and Opportunities, FGV, Rio de Janeiro, June 9, 2015.
2 Structure of the Presentation Two topics: 1) The voting cohesion of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa in the UN General Assembly. 2) Brazil s military weakness and the role of military power in the country s grand strategy.
3 The BRICS at the UN Convergence: a measure of agreement between two countries. Whenever two countries cast the same vote (yes, no or abstain), there is convergence. The importance of measuring convergence: Ambassador Roberto Jaguaribe, Brazil s Sherpa to the 2009 and 2010 BRICS Summits: The BRICS forum is nor a normative forum, not a forum for negotiations, but a forum for convergence. (quoted in Stuenkel, The BRICS and the Future of Global Order, 2015, p. 89) Unity rate: a measure of cohesion within the BRICS group. Whenever all members cast the same vote (yes, abstain or no), there is unity. Defection: a measure of disagreement within the group. Whenever at least one country casts a different vote, there is a defection. Source: Anton Strezhnev and Erik Voeten, 2013, United Nations General Assembly Voting Data, available at
4 BRICS: Convergence with the US ( ) 1,0 Convergence between each BRICS and the US at the UN General Assembly ( ) 0,9 0,8 0,7 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0,0 Source: (Strezhnev & Voeten, 2013) Brazil China Russia South Africa India
5 Convergence with Brazil 1,0 Convergence between each BRICS and Brazil at the UN General Assembly ( ) 0,9 0,8 0,7 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0,0 Russia India China South Africa Source: (Strezhnev & Voeten, 2013)
6 Convergence with Russia 1,0 Convergence between the BRICS and Russia at the UN General Assembly ( ) 0,9 0,8 0,7 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0,0 Source: (Strezhnev & Voeten, 2013) Brazil India China South Africa
7 Convergence with India 1,0 Convergence between each BRICS and India at the UN General Assembly ( ) 0,9 0,8 0,7 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0,0 Brazil Russia China South Africa Source: (Strezhnev & Voeten, 2013)
8 Convergence with China 1,0 Convergence between each BRICS and China at the UN General Assembly ( ) 0,9 0,8 0,7 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0,0 Brazil Russia India South Africa Source: (Strezhnev & Voeten, 2013)
9 Convergence with South Africa 1,0 Convergence between each BRICS and South Africa at the UN General Assembly ( ) 0,9 0,8 0,7 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0,0 Brazil Russia India China Source: (Strezhnev & Voeten, 2013)
10 Convergence Among the BRICS ( ) Brazil Russia India China South Africa Brazil 1 Russia 0,66 1 India 0,82 0,74 1 China 0,81 0,75 0,85 1 South Africa 0,34 0,22 0,24 0,15 1 Source: (Strezhnev & Voeten, 2013)
11 Convergence Among the BRICS ( ) Brazil Russia India China South Africa Brazil 1 Russia 0,63 1 India 0,79 0,60 1 China 0,81 0,62 0,83 1 South Africa 0,88 0,70 0,74 0,79 1 Source: (Strezhnev & Voeten, 2013)
12 Convergence Among the BRICS ( ) Brazil Russia India China South Africa Brazil 1 Russia 0,70 1 India 0,77 0,73 1 China 0,84 0,79 0,82 1 South Africa 0,89 0,77 0,79 0,88 1 Source: (Strezhnev & Voeten, 2013)
13 Convergence Among the BRICS from 2009 to 2012 Brazil Russia India China South Africa Brazil 1 Russia 0,69 1 India 0,82 0,68 1 China 0,86 0,76 0,83 1 South Africa 0,93 0,71 0,80 0,85 1 Source: (Strezhnev & Voeten, 2013)
14 Yearly Unity Rates of the original BRICs at the UN General Assembly ( ) (% of n = 3891) 1,0 0,9 0,8 0,7 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0,0 Source: (Strezhnev & Voeten, 2013)
15 Defection Rates within the BRICS according to Resolution topics ( ) UN Resolution Themes Brazilian Defection Russian Defection Indian Defection Chinese Defection South African Defection Agrees Dissents Agrees Dissents Agrees Dissents Agrees Dissents Agrees Dissents Political and Security Economic Issues Socio-technical-cultural Decolonization-Tutelage UN Management and Finances Legal Issues Palestine Issue Total Source: (Strezhnev & Voeten, 2013)
16 Conclusion on the BRICS s cohesion rates at the UN Growing unity within the BRICS group at UNGA. Russia is the main defector, particularly on political and security motions. Russia is the only member of the BRICS which is a declining power.
17 Doves vs. Hawks(?): The role of military power in Brazil s grand strategy The dovish perspective. Brazil does not need and does not want military power to be invited to the best international tables, like Japan and Germany since Brazil does not need military power to defend itself from its weak neighbors. Brazil cannot afford to have real military power. Yes, Brazil is unlikely have a permanent seat on the UNSC, but it can get all the rest it wants without military power. Main doves: the Foreign Ministry.
18 Doves vs. Hawks(?): The role of military power in Brazil s grand strategy The (sort of) hawkish perspective. Military power matters to Brazil, since the armed forces can help foreign policy in its effort to expand the country s bargaining capacity and autonomy. Due to its intrinsic importance, military power cannot, under any circumstances, be neglected as a useful tool to achieve the national interest. A weak military structure reduces the maneuvering room of the country s foreign policy. A weak military structure exposes the country to conditionalities set by foreign powers in the latter s disputes with Brazil. The lack of appropriate military capabilities also contributes to the reduction of Brazil s soft power. Brazil needs to develop military capabilities commensurate with its international status and ready to protect the country s growing interests in the international arena. Main authors: Joao Paulo Soares Alsina Jr., Domício Proença Jr., and Fabio Bertonha.
19 BRICS: Military Capabilities National Material Capabilities (CINC): the concept The Composite Index of National Capabilitiy (CINC, Singer et al, 1972). Includes the production of iron and steel, urban population, total population, total military spending, total military personnel and total energy production of a country in relation to the total resources available in the international system.
20 BRICS: National Material Capabilities (CINC) ( ) 40,0% 35,0% 30,0% 25,0% 20,0% 15,0% 10,0% 5,0% 0,0% South Africa Brazil China India Russia Total BRICS Source: Correlates of War, 2010.
21 National Material Capabilities (CINC) of USA, France, United Kingdom, Japan and Germany ( ) 40,0% 35,0% 30,0% 25,0% 20,0% 15,0% 10,0% 5,0% 0,0% USA France United Kingdom Germany Japan Source: Correlates of War, 2010.
22 Military expenditure of the BRICS, constant (2011) US$ m., Brazil USSR/Russia India China, P. R. South Africa Source: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, 2014.
23 Military expenditure of the BRICS as percentage of gross domestic product, ,0% 6,0% 5,0% 4,0% 3,0% 2,0% 1,0% 0,0% Brazil USSR/Russia India China, P. R. South Africa Source: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, 2014.
24 Military expenditure of the BRICS as percentage of Government spending ( ) 0,2 0,18 0,16 0,14 0,12 0,1 0,08 0,06 0,04 0,02 0 Brazil Russia India China, P. R. South Africa Source: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, 2014.
25 Military expenditure per capita of the BRICS ( ) (Current US$) 1000,0 900,0 800,0 700,0 600,0 500,0 400,0 300,0 200,0 100,0 0,0 Source: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Brazil USSR/Russia India China, P. R. South Africa
26 Military Expenditures of the BRICS countries in 2014 Country/Attribute Military expenditure Military Expenditure (%GDP) Military Expenditure (% of Government Expenditure) Military Expenditure (per capita) Brazil ,4% 3,4% 157 USSR/Russia ,5% 11,7% 593 India ,4% 9,1% 39,4 China ,06% 7,3% 155 South Africa ,2% 3,5% 73,4 Source: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, 2014.
27 Military Assets: Comparison of BRICS with USA, France and UK Attribute/Country Brazil China India Russia South Africa USA France UK Nuclear warheads 0 ~ ~ ~7700 ~ ICBM (Launchers) 0 66 Tests Bomber aircraft? 120? Ballistic-missile nuclear-powered submarines 0 4 Tests Active personnel Armored infantry fighting vehicles? Main battle tanks Artillery Attack/Guided missile submarines Aircraft carriers Cruisers, Destroyers & Frigates Principal amphibious ships Tactical aircraft? ? Attack helicopters Heavy/medium transport aircraft Heavy/medium transport helicopters Tanker and multi-role tanker/transport aircraft Airborne early-warning and control aircraft ? Heavy unmanned aerial vehicles 0 Some 4 Some Source: The Military Balance, 2014, p ; p ; p KILE, 2013.
28 Brazilian Military Readiness in 2011: The Navy Equipment Existing Operational Percentage Operational Ships ,98 Aircraft ,70 Helicopters ,84 Tanks ,59 Canons ,00 Missile Launcher ,15 Source: Folha de São Paulo, 13 de Março de 2011
29 Brazilian Military Readiness in 2011: The Army Equipment Existing Operational Percentage Operational Tanks ,25 Helicopters ,84 Wheeled Vehicles ,17 Canons ,09 Source: Folha de São Paulo, 13 de Março de 2011
30 Brazilian Military Readiness in 2011: The Air Force Equipment Existing Operational Percentage Operational Fighter ,87 Patrol ,56 Recon ,14 Training ,46 Inspection ,91 Demonstration ,33 Helicopters ,99 Portable Missiles ,00 Source: Folha de São Paulo, 13 de Março de 2011
31 Percentage of Military Officers in the President s Cabinet ( ) Source: Planalto.gov
32 Military Expenditure as % of Federal Expenditures ( ) Source: IBGE, Estatísticas do Século XX; Secretaria do Tesouro Nacional.
33 Military Personnel per one thousand inhabitants ( ) 5 4,5 4,6 4 3,9 3,5 3 2,5 2,3 2 1,5 1 1,8 1,8 1,6 0,5 0 Source: Correlates of War; 2010 and IBGE via IPEADATA
34 Average annual Brazilian contribution of personnel to UN Peacekeeping Operations (1990 to 2014) Source: UNITED NATIONS (2014)
35 Annual Average Numbers of Troops in GLO Number of GLO Operations Number of Troops engaged in Law and Order Missions (GLO) (1988 to 2014) Troops Operations Source: Brazilian Army, data requested on the basis of the Freedom of Information Law. 05 mai 2015.
36 Concluding remarks on the role of military power in Brazil s grand strategy The doves have the upper hand and are very likely to remain so. Bismarck once said that Italy had a big appetite but poor teeth Will Brazil follow on Italy s footsteps?
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