ECONOMIA ROMÂNIEI. - perspective pe termen mediu
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1 ECONOMIA ROMÂNIEI - perspective pe termen mediu BUȘTENI Septembrie 2015 dr. Andrei RĂDULESCU Senior Economist
2 CUPRINS I. INTRODUCERE II. PROVOCĂRILE MEDIULUI INTERNAȚIONAL III. EVOLUȚII RECENTE ÎN ECONOMIA ROMÂNIEI IV. PERSPECTIVELE ECONOMIEI INTERNE V. CONCLUZII 2
3 INTRODUCERE
4 INTRODUCERE ECONOMIA ROMÂNIEI: PIB de 150 miliarde EUR în 2014, locul 53 în lume, grad ridicat de deschidere (peste 80%); economia a intrat într-un nou ciclu, după o ajustare severă (abia în 2014 PIB-ul real a revenit la nivelul din 2008); dinamica prețurilor de consum în teritoriu negativ din vara acestui an; perspectiva schimbării configurației de politici economice pe plan intern; incertitudini: politica FED, tranziția Chinei spre un nou model economic, tensiunile geo-politice în Europa, riscul implementării unor politici pro-ciclice și riscul politic pe plan intern. 4
5 PROVOCĂRILE MEDIULUI INTERNAȚIONAL
6 Aug-07 Dec-07 Apr-08 Aug-08 Dec-08 Apr-09 Aug-09 Dec-09 Apr-10 Aug-10 Dec-10 Apr-11 Aug-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Aug-12 Dec-12 Apr-13 Aug-13 Dec-13 Apr-14 Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 PROVOCĂRILE MEDIULUI INTERNAȚIONAL Politica FED și prețurile la aur, petrol, acțiuni Activele FED (trilioane USD) Prețul la aur (USD/uncie) 0.0 Prețul la țiței (USD/baril) (stânga) S&P 500 (dreapta) 0.0 Sursă: FED, Indexmundi, Bloomberg, prelucrări Banca Transilvania 6
7 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 PROVOCĂRILE MEDIULUI INTERNAȚIONAL 140 Cursul real efectiv (2010 = 100) Zona Euro China Elveția Japonia Marea Britanie SUA Sursă: Banca Reglementelor Internaționale 7
8 PROVOCĂRILE MEDIULUI INTERNAȚIONAL 6.0 Investiții productive vs. consumul privat în Zona Euro (%, an/an, MA4) Investiții productive Consum privat Sursă: Eurostat, INS, AMECO, prelucrări și previziuni Banca Transilvania 8
9 EVOLUȚII RECENTE ÎN ECONOMIA ROMÂNIEI
10 EVOLUȚII RECENTE ÎN ECONOMIA ROMÂNIEI PIB-ul în creștere cu 3,7% an/an în semestrul I 2015, susținută de cererea internă (5,2 pp); consumul privat a accelerat la 5,4% an/an; investițiile productive au consemnat un avans de 8,1% an/an; în sfera ofertei agregate se notează sectoarele ciclice: construcțiile (+3,6% an/an) și comerțul/transportul/horeca (5,6% an/an)... precum și IT&C (+13,8% an/an); scăderea prețurilor de consum în ultimele luni, pe fondul reducerii TVA la alimente; semnale de deteriorare a balanței comerciale: importurile cresc cu un ritm mai rapid decât exporturile (9,6% an/an vs. 6,3% an/an în semestrul I); Noul Cod Fiscal reexaminat a fost adoptat de Parlament și promulgat de Președinte; o nouă undă de turbulențe pe piețele financiare internaționale. 10
11 EVOLUȚII RECENTE ÎN ECONOMIA ROMÂNIEI 15 PIB-ul (%, an/an) T1 03 T3 03 T1 04 T3 04 T1 05 T3 05 T1 06 T3 06 T1 07 T3 07 T1 08 T3 08 T1 09 T3 09 T1 10 T3 10 T1 11 T3 11 T1 12 T3 12 T1 13 T3 13 T1 14 T3 14 T Sursă: Eurostat, INS, AMECO 11
12 EVOLUȚII RECENTE ÎN ECONOMIA ROMÂNIEI 20 Consum privat vs. investiții productive (%, an/an) T2 05 T4 05 T2 06 T4 06 T2 07 T4 07 T2 08 T4 08 T2 09 T4 09 T2 10 T4 10 T2 11 T4 11 T2 12 T4 12 T2 13 T4 13 T2 14 T4 14 T Sursă: Eurostat, INS, AMECO Consumul privat Investiții productive (dr.)
13 EVOLUȚII RECENTE ÎN ECONOMIA ROMÂNIEI Tendința exportului vs. tendința în industria prelucrătoare (%, an/an) TENDINTAEXPORT TENDINTAINDPREL Sursă: Eurostat, INS, AMECO, prelucrări Banca Transilvania 13
14 EVOLUȚII RECENTE ÎN ECONOMIA ROMÂNIEI Tendința importului vs. tendința în comerțul cu amănuntul (%, an/an) 30 TENDINTACOMERT TENDINTAIMPORT Sursă: Eurostat, INS, AMECO, prelucrări Banca Transilvania 14
15 EVOLUȚII RECENTE ÎN ECONOMIA ROMÂNIEI 9.0 Rata șomajului vs. rata șomajului structural (%) RATASOMAJULUI SOMAJSTRUCTURAL Sursă: Eurostat, INS, AMECO, prelucrări Banca Transilvania 15
16 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 EVOLUȚII RECENTE ÎN ECONOMIA ROMÂNIEI 7.0 Dinamica prețurilor de consum (%, an/an) Sursă: Eurostat, INS, AMECO, prelucrări Banca Transilvania 16
17 EVOLUȚII RECENTE ÎN ECONOMIA ROMÂNIEI Structura PIB pe sectoare Agricultură Industrie Construcții Comerț (cu amănuntul, ridicata), transport, HORECA IT&C Financiar-bancar Imobiliar Administrație publică, apărare, sănătate, etc Activități profesionale, științifice, suport, administrative Activități de spectacole, culturale și recreative Sursă: Eurostat 17
18 PERSPECTIVELE ECONOMIEI INTERNE
19 PERSPECTIVELE ECONOMIEI INTERNE 19
20 PERSPECTIVELE ECONOMIEI INTERNE 200 PIB-ul real (indice, 2000 = 100) Sursă: Eurostat, INS, AMECO, prelucrări și previziuni Banca Transilvania 20
21 PERSPECTIVELE ECONOMIEI INTERNE Consumul privat vs. investițiile productive (%, an/an) Consum privat Investiții productive (dr.) Sursă: Eurostat, INS, AMECO, prelucrări și previziuni Banca Transilvania
22 PERSPECTIVELE ECONOMIEI INTERNE 40.0 Exporturi vs. importuri (%, an/an) Exporturi Importuri Sursă: Eurostat, INS, AMECO, prelucrări și previziuni Banca Transilvania 22
23 PERSPECTIVELE ECONOMIEI INTERNE Echilibrul pe piața bunurilor și serviciilor (IS) vs. echilibrul pe piața monetară (LM) rata de dobândă IS IS 1 LM B A Sursă: Banca Transilvania dinamica PIB-ului 23
24 PERSPECTIVELE ECONOMIEI INTERNE Politica monetară a BNR (regula lui Taylor) DOBANDABNR DEVIATIAPIB DIFERENTIALINFLATIE Sursă: estimări econometrice BT, utilizând date BNR, INS, Eurostat, AMECO 24
25 PERSPECTIVELE ECONOMIEI INTERNE 6 Previziuni dinamica prețurilor de consum (%, an/an) Sursă: previziuni econometrice BT, utilizând date Eurostat, AMECO, INS INFLATIEPREVIZIUNI 25
26 CONCLUZII
27 CONCLUZII România într-un nou ciclu economic - perspective de accelerare pe termen mediu; provocări privind stabilitatea macro-financiară - perspectiva inflexiunii politicii monetare; Noul Cod Fiscal și Noua Lege a Salarizării impact semnificativ asupra comportamentului de investiții/consum, dar și a echilibrului macroeconomic; importanța continuării reformelor structurale pentru creștere durabilă și convergență economică; riscuri: divergențele de politică monetară pe mapamond; relația sensibilă între semnalele FED și reacția din piețele financiare; evoluțiile din economia Chinei; nivelul ridicat al datoriei și refacerea lentă a dinamicii PIB potențial în Zona Euro; tensiunile geo-politice regionale; politici economice pro-ciclice și riscuri politice interne; provocări: Uniunea Bancară Europeană, Uniunea Monetară Europeană. 27
28 CONCLUZII PIB vs. PIB potențial(%, an/an) 12 PIB PIBPOTENTIAL Sursă: Eurostat, INS, AMECO, prelucrări și previziuni Banca Transilvania 28
29 CONCLUZII 8.0 Contribuții la dinamica PIB potențial (pp) Capital Muncă PTF -4.0 Sursă: Eurostat, INS, AMECO, prelucrări și previziuni Banca Transilvania 29
30 VĂ MULȚUMESC! dr. Andrei RĂDULESCU Tel:
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