NCGT Journal, V. 3, No. 1, March /56 YEAR CYCLE: EARTHQUAKES IN SOUTH EAST ASIA

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1 NCGT Journal, V. 3, No. 1, March ARTICLES 9/56 YEAR CYCLE: EARTHQUAKES IN SOUTH EAST ASIA David MCMINN Independent Scholar Abstract: A 9/56 year cycle has been established in the timing of major earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. The prospect of this cycle showing up in patterns of historic South East Asian earthquakes (M 7.8) was assessed in some detail. These events were found to fall preferentially in 54/56 year grids. Such patterns were also evident in the timing of large earthquakes in Japan Kamchatka, Alaska and Chile Peru and were a feature of large earthquakes around the Pacific Rim. Additionally, 9/56 year and 18/56 year grids yielded significance for South East Asian quakes. Overall, the 9/56 year hypothesis was well supported. Keywords: 9/56 year, 54/56 year, earthquakes, cycles, Indonesia, Philippines. Introduction T he 54/56 year grids were first established in the timing of financial panics in the USA and Western Europe (McMinn, 1986, 1993) and then extrapolated to world mega earthquakes (M 8.6) since the late 19th century (see Appendix 1). Similar 54/56 year grids could be produced for major earthquakes (M 7.8) in Alaska and Japan Kamchatka (McMinn, 2014a), as well as in Chile Peru (McMinn, 2014b). Some common seismic patterns were clearly evident around the Ring of Fire. Such grids were also hypothesised to arise in earthquake cycles for South East Asia (M 7.8) over the past 120 years. This was verified by the findings, thereby offering further support for a strong 54/56 year effect in Pacific earthquakes. Additional 9/56 year and 18/56 year grids were also established for large South East Asian earthquakes (M 7.8). The 9/56 year cycle consists of a grid with intervals of 56 years on the vertical (called sequences) and multiples of 9 years on the horizontal (called subcycles). Critical events will cluster with statistical significance in these patterns. The 56 year sequences were numbered in accordance with McMinn (1993), with 1817, 1873, 1929, 1985 being designated as Sequence 01; 1818, 1874, 1930, 1986 as Sequence 02 and so forth. McMinn (Appendix 2, 2002) presented the full numbering. In the accompanying tables, the dates were expressed as YYYYMMDD and the year ending November 24 was considered to be the year of best fit. The database of the National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) was accessed to compile a listing of major earthquakes (M 7.8) taking place in South East Asia (see Appendix 2). For the purposes of this paper, South East Asia was taken to cover Indonesia, the Philippines, Myanmar, Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia. It also included parts of eastern India (Assam and the Nicobar and Andaman Islands), as well as Yunnan in south west China. Indonesia Indonesia is by far the most seismically active country in South East Asia and was thus considered separately. There have been 44 large Indonesian events (M 7.8) since 1790 (see Appendix 2), of which 25 showed up in the 9/56 year grid in Table 1 (significant p <.001). 12 Table 1 9/56 YEAR CYCLE: MAJOR INDONESIAN QUAKES M 7.8 Year ending November

2 12 NCGT Journal, V. 3, No. 1, March Continued South East Asia The ensuing analysis was limited to the post 1898 era, because 7 events took place in and thus any findings based on data including this year would be heavily biased. For South East Asia, significance could be achieved via an 18/56 year grid as presented in Table 2. Of the 56 earthquakes experienced since 1898, some 23 took place in this arrangement (significant p <.001). The year did not appear in the table, but significance was still at p <.01 even if it was included in the assessment Table 2 18/56 YEAR SEISMIC CYCLE: SOUTH EAST ASIA Post 1898 M 7.8 Year ending November

3 NCGT Journal, V. 3, No. 1, March /56 Year Grids The top 6 earthquakes for South East Asia (M 8.6) fell in the same two 54/56 year grids that were established for world mega quakes (see Appendix 1). However, large South East Asian events (M 7.8) appeared selectively in three 54/56 year patterns as shown in Appendix 4. These can be combined to give a layout with intervals repeating 9, 9, 36, 9, 9, 36, 9, 9.. years on the horizontal and 56 years on the vertical (denoted as a /56 year cycle) (see Table 3). Of the 56 major South East Asian quakes post 1898, some 25 showed up in this configuration (significant p <.01) Continued Table /56 YEAR SEISMIC CYCLE: SOUTH EAST ASIA Post 1898 M 7.8 Year ending November Mega earthquakes (M 8.5) have been highlighted in Red Discussion and Conclusions Overall, a 54/56 year effect was confirmed for the timing of large South East Asian earthquakes (M 7.8).

4 14 NCGT Journal, V. 3, No. 1, March Significance could be produced via the /56 year grid as presented in Table 3. Interestingly, 9-45/56 year patterns applied to earthquakes in Japan Kamchatka, Chile Peru and Alaska (McMinn, 2014a, 2014b) and thus the /56 year grid for South East Asia was anomalous. Correlates could also be realised for 9/56 year and 18/56 year grids for South East Asian earthquakes. s 21, 23, 25,, 28, 30, & 32 appeared in Grids A & B for World mega quakes (see Appendix 1), as well as in Grids A & B for large quakes in South East Asia (see Appendix 4). Thus there was overlap between the 54/56 year grids for these phenomena. This was a common theme around the Pacific Rim (see Table 4), because the same 56 year sequences tended to show up in the various 54./56 year grids. Table 4 SHARED 56 YEAR SEQUENCES IN THE 54/56 YEAR SEISMIC GRIDS Grid A Grid B Source Sequence Numbers Sequence Numbers Appendix 1 this paper World Mega Quakes 29, 27, 25, 23, 21 36, 34, 32, 30, 28, McMinn (2011b) South East Asia 25, 23, 21 32, 30, 28, Appendix 4 this paper Japan - Kamchatka 29, 27, 25, 23, 21 na Table 1, McMinn (2014a) Alaska , 34, 32, 30, 28, Table 2, McMinn (2014a) Chile - Peru na 34, 32, 30, 28, Table 3 McMinn (2014b) World mega quakes recorded M 8.6, whereas the other samples around the Pacific Rim included all large quakes M 7.8. Source: McMinn (2014b). Great or giant mega thrust earthquakes for Sumatra were recorded in 1797, 1833, 1861,, 2005 and 2007 (Natawidjaja et al, 2009). The three earliest events fall in a 9 year subcycle (see Table 5) that also included the 1815 Mt Tambora volcanic eruption in south central Indonesia. The latter had a Volcano Explosivity Index (VEI) of 7 and was one of the biggest world eruptions in the last 10,000 years. NB: Natawidjaja et al (2009) estimated the magnitudes for the 1797 and 1833 events to be M 8.5 and M respectively. These magnitudes were considerably higher than those given by the NGDC Feb10 46 Table 5 SUMATRAN MEGATHRUST QUAKES IN A 9 YEAR SUBCYCLE 12.2 months beginning February Apr Nov24 Feb 10, South west Sumatra. M 8.5. Nov 24, Sumatra. M Feb 16, Lagundi. M 8.5. Apr 10, 1815 Mt Tambora eruption. VEI 7. Estimated magnitudes as given by Natawidjaja et al (2009) Feb16 Grids based on 54/56 years were exceedingly important in the timing of large earthquakes around the Pacific Basin. These patterns were hypothesised to arise from Moon Sun tidal harmonics as proposed by McMinn (2011a). How the Moon Sun effect activated terrestrial seismic events remained completely unknown and a solution lies well outside prevailing paradigms in seismology.

5 NCGT Journal, V. 3, No. 1, March Acknowledgements I would like to thank the editor Dong Choi and the reviewers for their input in the publishing of this paper. As always their contribution was most appreciated. I am also very indebted to the National Geophysical Data Center for producing the extensive database upon which this paper was based. Such historic catalogues are extremely valuable in the study of earthquake and eruption cycles over recent centuries. References McMinn, D., The 56 Year Cycles & Financial Crises. 15th Conference of Economists. The Economics Society of Australia. Monash University, Melbourne. 18p. Aug McMinn, D., Financial Crises & The Number 56. The Australian Technical. Analysts Association Newsletter. p McMinn, D.,. Financial Crises & The Number 56. Cycles, v. 46, no. 1, p August. McMinn, D., /56 Year Cycle: Financial Crises. McMinn, D., Market Timing by The Moon & The Sun. Twin Palms Publishing. 163p. McMinn, D., 2011a. 9/56 Year Cycle: Californian Earthquakes. New Concepts In Global Tectonics Newsletter, no. 58, p March. McMinn, D., 2011b. 9/56 Year Cycle: Record Earthquakes. New Concepts In Global Tectonics Newsletter, no. 59, p June. McMinn, D., 2011c, 9/56 Year Cycle: Hurricanes. New Concepts In Global Tectonics Newsletter, no. 59, p June. McMinn, D., 2011d. 9/56 Year Cycle: Earthquakes in Selected Countries. New Concepts in Global Tectonics Newsletter, no. 60, p September. McMinn, D.,. 9/56 Year Cycle: World Mega Volcanic Eruptions. New Concepts in Global Tectonics Newsletter, no. 64, p September. McMinn, D a. 9/56 Year Cycle: Earthquakes in Japan, Kamchatka and Alaska. New Concepts in Global Tectonics Journal, v. 2, no. 1, p March. McMinn, D b. 9/56 Year Cycle: Earthquakes in The Pacific Rim of South America. New Concepts in Global Tectonics Journal, v. 2, no 2, p June. Natawidjaja, D. H et al, Source Parameters of The Great Sumatran Megathrust Earthquakes of 1797 and 1833 Inferred from Coral Microatolls. Journal of Geophysical Research, v Issue B6. June. National Geophysical Data Center. The Significant Earthquake Database. Salleh, A., Mega-quake Clusters Unlikely: Study. ABC Science. Dec US Geological Survey. Largest Earthquakes In The World Since Appendix 1 54/56 YEAR GRIDS: WORLD MEGA QUAKES Post 1870 M 8.6 National Geophysical Data Center Grid A 7.5 months ending March Nov Mar Mar Aug Mar28 Dec Grid B 9 months ending June Jun05 Sep20 Sep Feb Apr Jan May

6 16 NCGT Journal, V. 3, No. 1, March Mar WORLD MEGA QUAKES: M 8.6 National Geophysical Data Center Date Country Mag Sep 20 Philippines: North west Mindanao, Dapitan 8.6 Sep 21 Philippines: Mindanao, Zamboanga, Sulu Jun 05 Japan: Offshore east coast Honshu Jan 31 Ecuador: Offshore Nov 11 Chile: Atacama Apr 01 Alaska: Unimak Island Aug 15 India-China Nov 04 Russia: Kamchatka Mar 09 Alaska May 22 Chile: Puerto Montt, Valdiva Mar 28 Alaska Feb 04 Alaska: Aleutian Islands, Rat Islands 8.7 Dec Indonesia: Offshore west coast Sumatra Mar 28 Indonesia: Offshore south west Sumatra 8.6 Feb 27 Chile: Maule, Concepcion, Talcahuano Mar 11 Japan: Offshore north east Honshu 9.0 Apr11 Indonesia: Offshore north west coast Sumatra 8.6 In Grids A & B, the 56 year sequences are separated by intervals of 54 years on the horizontal. Mega quakes occurring in South East Asia (M 8.6) have been highlighted in Red. All other World mega quakes M 8.6 occurring in Girds A and B have been highlighted in Blue. The NGDC listed some 17 world mega quakes (M 8.6) since 1870, of which 14 showed up in Grids A & B. This compared with an expected 3.3. All five post 1900 mega quakes in Grid B occurred in the four months ending May 25. Source: McMinn, 2011b. Appendix 2 MAJOR EARTHQUAKES IN INDONESIA Post M 7.8 National Geophysical Data Center YYYY MM DD Location M INDONESIA: SW. SUMATRA INDONESIA: SUMBAWA ISLAND INDONESIA: SUMATRA: BENGKULU INDONESIA: MALUKU: BANDANAIRA INDONESIA: LAGUNDI, SIMUK, TELLO I INDONESIA: IRIAN JAYA INDONESIA: N. MOLUCCAS ISLANDS INDONESIA: BANDA SEA INDONESIA: NW. IRIAN JAYA INDONESIA: S OF JAVA INDONESIA: MINAHASSA PENINSULA INDONESIA: NW SUMATRA INDONESIA: DJAILOLO GILOLO INDONESIA: SANGIHE ISLAND INDONESIA: IRIAN JAYA INDONESIA: IRIAN JAYA INDONESIA: IRIAN JAYA INDONESIA: BANDA SEA INDONESIA: BANDA SEA INDONESIA: NEW GUINEA: IRIAN JAYA INDONESIA: N SUMATRA. 7.9

7 NCGT Journal, V. 3, No. 1, March INDONESIA: NEW GUINEA INDONESIA: CENTRTAL SULAWESI INDONESIA: JAVA: JOGYAKARTA INDONESIA: SERAM INDONESIA: BANDA SEA INDONESIA: BANDA SEA INDONESIA: NEW GUINEA: IRIAN JAYA INDONESIA: CELEBES SEA INDONESIA: SUNDA ISLANDS INDONESIA: NEW GUINEA: IRIAN JAYA INDONESIA: FLORES REGION, MAUMERE, BABI INDONESIA: JAVA INDONESIA: SULAWESI INDONESIA: IRIAN JAYA INDONESIA: SUMATRA: BENGKULU, ENGGANO INDONESIA: SUMATRA: OFF WEST COAST INDONESIA: SUMATERA: SW INDONESIA: SUMATRA INDONESIA: SUMATRA INDONESIA: SUMATRA INDONESIA: SUMATRA INDONESIA: N SUMATRA: OFF WEST COAST INDONESIA: N SUMATRA: OFF WEST COAST PHILIPPINES: MASBATE ISLAND PHILIPPINES: LUZON: ILOCOS SUR PHILIPPINES: NW MINDANAO: DAPITAN PHILIPPINES: MINDANAO, ZAMBOANGA, SULU PHILIPPINES: NORTHERN SAMAR PHILIPPINES: NORTHERN SAMAR PHILIPPINES: LUZON PHILIPPINES: DAVAO GULF PHILIPPINES: MINDANAO: TALACOGON PHILIPPINES: MINDANAO: COTABATO PHILIPPINES: E MINDANAO: MATI,SURIGA PHILIPPINES: LUZON PHILIPPINES: MINDORO PHILIPPINES: E OF PHILIPPINES: PANAY, ILOILO CITY, ANTIQUE PHILIPPINES: PHILIPPINES: BUTUAN PHILIPPINES: MINDANAO PHILIPPINES: BAGUIO, CABANATUAN MYANMAR: MANDALAY MYANMAR: 7.8

8 18 NCGT Journal, V. 3, No. 1, March INDIA: ANDAMAN I, NICOBAR I INDIA: ASSAM INDIA-CHINA INDIA-CHINA CHINA: YUNNAN PROVINCE CHINA: YUNNAN PROVINCE; VIETNAM: HANOI 7.8 Source: National Geophysical Data Center. Appendix 3 9/56 YEAR SEISMIC CYCLE: SOUTH EAST ASIA Post 1790 M 7.8 m Year ending November 24 Grid A Grid B Grid C

9 NCGT Journal, V. 3, No. 1, March Grid D Dates expressed as YYYYMMDD. 25 May13 Jun12 Aug15 Sep 20 Sep 21 Oct18 Oct20 Appendix 4 54/56 YEAR SEISMIC GRIDS: SOUTH EAST ASIA Post 1885 M 7.8 m Year ending November 24 Grid A Sep May Jul Jul Mar Sep Sep Mar28 Dec 28 Grid B Jan24

10 20 NCGT Journal, V. 3, No. 1, March Dec Dec Apr11 Apr Aug Nov Mar Oct Apr06 Oct Apr Jun Mega quakes (M 8.5) have been highlighted in Red. Grid C Dec21 Jan01 Feb Feb Jan Dec Mar Feb Jul16

9/56 YEAR CYCLE: EARTHQUAKES IN JAPAN, KAMCHATKA AND ALASKA

4 NCGT Journal, v. 2, no. 1, March 2014. www.ncgt.org ARTICLES 9/56 YEAR CYCLE: EARTHQUAKES IN JAPAN, KAMCHATKA AND ALASKA There are two contradictions, which make us suspicious. The old one which does